A Spirited Perfect Ten

[PhotoDave219]

to be honest.. sometimes the original stuff is as bad as that.

for example.. how to train your dragon franchise.. the first toothless plushies looked nothing like the movie.
infact, some fans were so disappointed that they made their own miles better than the "official" stuff.


you forgot @ParentsOf4 financial analysis.

Dammit! Sorry about that.

 

[BrerJon]

@wdwmagic has essentially set up a decentralized, informal, information network that knows everything Disney is going to do before it ever comes out.

It's also striking how much news just doesn't get out to the wider world.

I've seen lots of comments elsewhere by people who clearly had never even suspected *anything* was afoot for DHS, let alone a multi-billion makeover, until they read that article that did nothing but collate rumours from here that we've known for months, if not years, so keeping up with the news here really does put you ahead of the game.

 

[PhotoDave219]

It's also striking how much news just doesn't get out to the wider world.

I've seen lots of comments elsewhere by people who clearly had never even suspected *anything* was afoot for DHS, let alone a multi-billion makeover, until they read that article that did nothing but collate rumours from here that we've known for months, if not years, so keeping up with the news here really does put you ahead of the game.

This is where the rest of the Disney community comes to steal their "exclusives"

 

[MattM]

Especially like the bit with all this GROWTH the target value for TWDC is $105 down from its current $114 read what you will into that

Do you knowingly put out bad information?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DIS&ql=1 (Spoiler: Target $120)

 

[WDW1974]

yesh D23 really hasn't had a good parks presentation for some time then if this is true. I feel you can only let them down so much before the people start to skip the parks section of the event.

Disney could screw fanbois over for 10 straight Expos and they'd still show up for No. 11. ... Sorta like that episode of the Simpsons where Bart keeps putting his hand on a hot stove.

 

[WDW1974]

20 million + tuned in. The same amount as watched the World Series game 7, and both college football playoff games.

Mls attendance has passed hockey and basketball. the ratings for EPL, La liga, The Champions League, are all up significantly.

I know it's hard for members of the older generations to accept, as they have heard for years that soccer is the next big thing. But the facts are the facts.

Well, I'm sure you know I'm ancient since I attended the openings of both EPCOT and Disney-MGM and was a regular at WDW in the 70s. In other words, I'm old enough to remember when the 'Disney Difference' meant more than giving CMs making $9 an hour the opportunity to book rooms at the Grand Flo for only $300 a night!

As to the above, no doubt soccer is more popular than ever now. The ratings for the game show that. ... I do wonder about your MLS claims, though. I won't demand evidence, I just find it very hard to believe that MLS is outdrawing the NBA.

 

[WDW1974]

It makes my skin crawl that social media and "mommy blogging" are effective marketing strategies, but effective they are.

I need proof. I've never seen it. And seeing how many 'social media experts' basically earned the title by giving it to themselves, I have a real hard time with any of it. ...these are the folks telling Disney that it's doing the right thing (as the company writes ridiculously large consulting checks to said 'experts').

 

[WDW1974]

Rilous was there a month. He and Danny swapped parks then Rilous went to conventions in a hurry and Erin came in

Yes. Thanks. .... of all the guys to miss, one I actually personally liked and one who cared. Is he still with conventions or has he been pushed out of the company?

 

[PhotoDave219]

Well, I'm sure you know I'm ancient since I attended the openings of both EPCOT and Disney-MGM and was a regular at WDW in the 70s. In other words, I'm old enough to remember when the 'Disney Difference' meant more than giving CMs making $9 an hour the opportunity to book rooms at the Grand Flo for only $300 a night!

As to the above, no doubt soccer is more popular than ever now. The ratings for the game show that. ... I do wonder about your MLS claims, though. I won't demand evidence, I just find it very hard to believe that MLS is outdrawing the NBA.

However, I'll be the guy who demands evidence of the MLS attendance claims.

Because if facts are facts, let's see these facts.... Right?

 

[xdan0920]

Well, I'm sure you know I'm ancient since I attended the openings of both EPCOT and Disney-MGM and was a regular at WDW in the 70s. In other words, I'm old enough to remember when the 'Disney Difference' meant more than giving CMs making $9 an hour the opportunity to book rooms at the Grand Flo for only $300 a night!

As to the above, no doubt soccer is more popular than ever now. The ratings for the game show that. ... I do wonder about your MLS claims, though. I won't demand evidence, I just find it very hard to believe that MLS is outdrawing the NBA.

Hard to believe, but still true.

However, I'll be the guy who demands evidence of the MLS attendance claims.

Because if facts are facts, let's see these facts.... Right?

ok.

 

[WDW1974]

His replacement is Melissa Valiquette.

All I know of her is that she is in entertainment at MK and was an ambassador in the late 90s (less scary than Steven Miller, though!)
Any other info? Has she started yet or does she have a date?

 

[ThemeParkJunkee]

With MLS Women's team performing so well, perhaps THEY should be featured in An American Adventure instead of , well Armstrong? Just sayin. Soccer has more international recognition anyway.

I didn't watch the match but afterward this thought came to mind. Not to mention it might pique the South American's interest a bit.

 

[Captain Neo]

If the chinese market collapses how will that impact Shanghai Disneyland and more importantly Disney stock?

 

[WDW1974]

I thought people now say pirates is a D?

So would that not make it on the same level?

I'd give Pirates an F at the MK myself. ... But I actually care about show quality.

 

[WDW1974]

I'm perpetually amazed at what this community is able to accomplish.

@Lee & @WDW1974 have corporate affairs & budgeting down. @marni1971 has Operations and all sorts of other neat things covered, including history. @danlb_2000 has permitting watched. @lentesta has daily crowd levels & forecasting going.... and other things. (I do my fun smartassery, shinebox distribution and occasional analysis of the crowds, which wouldn't be possible without Len's work plus filtering information passed on.) Plus many many others who are well connected, well informed people who drop all of us notes constantly. Plus @71jason who has all of DTD & the nightlife scene covered.

@wdwmagic has essentially set up a decentralized, informal, information network that knows everything Disney is going to do before it ever comes out.

What's even more amazing is that we do it despite all the bizarre antics going on either in between or at the same time!!!

But hey, you gotta entertain the Twits somehow, right?

 

[WDW1974]

Should be very interesting to see. DCL's traditionally played it safe with their ports, avoiding more adventurous itineraries. I'm not sure I see Disney jumping through all the hoops of ensuring that their cruises are 100% "educational or humanitarian" either. But that might be a market too profitable not to tap into.

Adventures By Disney is in Egypt, Vietnam and China right now. Beyond the crazies in Miami's dissident population, no one will care when they finally go there. And I'm betting it's a good 5-7 years away.

Disney would do tours to Hell if it existed and people wanted to travel there.

 

[PhotoDave219]

With MLS Women's team performing so well, perhaps THEY should be featured in An American Adventure instead of , well Armstrong? Just sayin. Soccer has more international recognition anyway.

I didn't watch the match but afterward this thought came to mind. Not to mention it might pique the South American's interest a bit.

Well Lets look at MLS attendance anyways..... I mean Facts are facts.

Fact: MLS drew 6,184,804 in 2014.

Fact: NBA drew 21,926,548 fans in 2014-2015.

Fact: NHL drew 21,528,172 fans in 2014-2015.

Fact: 21 Million is more than 6 Million. More than 3 times as much.

Fact: My Phillies are the worst team in MLB right now but drew 3,777,322 in 2010 which is more than half of 6,184,804. Heck, even the attendance now of 24,472 is higher than the MLS' average of 19,148.

Fact: The worst team in Major League Baseball outdraws the MLS on a per-game average.

 

[PhotoDave219]

What's even more amazing is that we do it despite all the bizarre antics going on either in between or at the same time!!!

But hey, you gotta entertain the Twits somehow, right?

I prefer entertaining the Twats..... but thats just me.

 

[xdan0920]

Well Lets look at MLS attendance anyways..... I mean Facts are facts.

Fact: MLS drew 6,184,804 in 2014.

Fact: NBA drew 21,926,548 fans in 2014-2015.

Fact: NHL drew 21,528,172 fans in 2014-2015.

Fact: 21 Million is more than 6 Million. More than 3 times as much.

Fact: My Phillies are the worst team in MLB right now but drew 3,777,322 in 2010 which is more than half of 6,184,804. Heck, even the attendance now of 24,472 is higher than the MLS' average of 19,148.

Fact: The worst team in Major League Baseball outdraws the MLS on a per-game average.

You can't mix per game and season totals. MLS out draws NBA and NHL on a per game average. The only attendance stat which matters. Play games with the numbers all you want. Doesn't change anything.

 

[WDW1974]

What makes you think I didn't write this?

It's a straightforward Wall Street analysis. Of course, I'm going to comment only on the parts I want to poke fun at. (Even though it really doesn't deserve it.)

First tidbit:

Looking at the international theme parks, revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 5% in the past few years.​

Hey, Disney's international Parks & Resorts revenue has an annual growth rate of 4.1% since 2010, 3.5% since 2011, 3.6% since 2012, and 2.9% since 2013, but we know that Wall Street isn't worried about getting numbers right. It's not like they're in the numbers business.

I guess if you go back far enough, there's a 5% in there somewhere. Not sure if that qualifies as "in the past few years" though. Or you could just cherry pick the ticket, food, and merchandise numbers and ignore the hotels to make the number look bigger than it really is.

Second tidbit:

However, we expect strong growth on this front as the company opens its Shanghai resort in 2016.​

Me too, although with an over $5 billion combined investment in a segment that did $2.8 billion in sales last year, you'd kinda expect better than 5% growth, wouldn't you?

Third tidbit

We estimate revenues of around $52.65 billion for Disney in 2015​

With Disney's fiscal year three-quarters of the way over, you really went out on a limb on this one, didn't ya.

Fourth tidbit:

We currently have a $105 price estimate for Disney’s shares, which is more than 5% below the current market price of $114.​

Um, so I'm not the only one who thinks DIS is grossly overpriced?

Good thing they have a theme park in desperate need of a few billion. It's a much better place to park this year's $9 billion in net income, rather than even more stock buybacks.

More than any other factor, the stock price should tell everyone why the BoD was ready to approve the DHS project this year.

Fifth tidbit:

Looking at the guest spend [at Disney's international Parks & Resorts hotels], it has been on an uptrend and grew from $272 to $322 during the same period [2010 to 2014].​

And:

Going forward, we expect the occupancy rates to improve marginally from the current levels and average guest spend to grow to around $400 levels by the end of our forecast period.​

So, over 4 years, international Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) increased by 18.4%, an annual growth rate of 4.3%. Considering the rack rate, that's a solid growth rate, something to be rather pleased with if not for the fact that international hotel occupancy declined, largely negating gains from higher PRGS.

$322/night to $400/night. Wow, that's 24% growth! That sounds really great until I look at your graphic and see that's a number you're projecting for 2021! Seriously, you're projecting PRGS 6 years into the future? I wonder if even Disney does that.

And, um, that's growth from 2014 to 2021, an annual growth rate of 3.1%. Wow, when you look at it that way, it doesn't sound so great, does it? In fact, it sounds pretty ordinary, especially with the weak international hotel occupancy rate.

Sixth tidbit:

The international theme parks revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 5% from $1.80 billion in 2010 to $2.15 billion in 2014. We expect strong growth in this segment and estimate the theme parks revenues to be north of $3.30 billion by the end of our five- to seven-year forecast period.​

No snide remarks from me on this one. This one has me genuinely baffled. Disney is opening an entirely new resort and, by 2021, you're projecting international theme park revenue to be up by only $1.15 billion? According to your graph, you're expecting only a $340 million theme park revenue bump in the year Shanghai Disneyland opens. Really? Disney's 6 domestic theme parks average over $1 billion per park annually while Disney's international theme parks average roughly half that.

Remind me again, exactly why did Iger bend over backwards to get a resort built in Shanghai?

I could go on, but it's getting late. Need to save my strength for the release of Disney's quarterly results in 4 weeks.

No need to tire yourself out on a hot summer's night! ... You took it apart exactly as I forecast!