Cesar R M
Well-Known Member
no surprise.. that dude is in the red (as in negative level) credibility.
his moronic statements always lack substance.
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A Spirited Perfect Ten
- Thread starter WDW1974
- Start date
his moronic statements always lack substance.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
I could have guessed that by the URL alone, LOL.
Cesar R M
Well-Known Member
Disagree, under Iger he pushed direct-to-video movies into full releases (see PLANES)
Cesar R M
Well-Known Member
Well, if they were really trying to balance the crowds, they would have used a DYNAMIC tier system that updated the prices as the parks filled up.
they have the systems, they have the carp magicbands..
But this style is simple price goinging based on pure greed.
What I mean with Dynamic Price?
Have 2 types of prepaid tickets.. Silver and Gold
silver is cheaper, but will not allow you enter a park when its "in red phase".
Gold tickets have no limitation and cost almost as twice.
Now, normal every day tickets are tiered according to the park load.
the lower the load, the cheaper they are.. the closer to yellow/red.. the more expensive they get.
prices changing in real time and stuff..
PhotoDave219
Well-Known Member
I'm still looking at the numbers. I need to go back a few more years. 2014's numbers may be a fluke as 2015 is shaping up more like 2013.
Too soon to tell tho. Much more over the coming week or two.
Plus, you're talking about balancing the crowd? Showed signs of it in 2014, regressing in 2015.
I still think that you pay ONE PRICE to go to Disneyworld. No tiers, none of this piecemeal segmentation crap that financial analyists just love.
And honestly, how on earth can you justify those prices to DHS? in the past 2 1/2 years (880 days) DHS is pulling an off-peak crowd 38% of the time while Resort Average is 27%.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
That's the one fascinating aspect that I don't think I've seen anyone specifically point out - this is a tacit admission by Disney that "all WDW parks are not created equal".
Sure, we all knew this - but to see it not only admitted but institutionalized like this is remarkable.
With the system itself, the one thing I just cannot figure out is how Park Hopping works. How do you charge for two tiers of park levels but one tier for park hopping? So if you buy all "non-MK days" and add the PH, all you have to do is go to a "non-MK" park in the AM and then you can freely hop to the MK without paying the surcharge? Are they going to start collecting $20 bills at the door if you want to go to MK and don't have any "MK days" on your pass but you have a park hopper?
It gives me a headache just thinking about it. I can't imagine how your average non-Disney fan wouldn't be overwhelmed. And I can see the Internet just breeding "abuse" - tips and tricks that lead to half the folks in line for Epcot at opening have their tickets scanned, turn immediately around and head out the exit, then pile on the monorail to the MK so they can park hop.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
Absimilliard
Well-Known Member
When I visited Test Track control tower in 2005, I was quoted 1600 per hour for the real life capacity at the time.
I was always curious about Soarin' at Epcot real life hourly capacity and I worked my network on that last year. End result? Below 1200 per hour! Seeing as how the movie is 5 minutes long and each theater has 87 seats... You'd figure at least 1600, no? Then, I though about it and counted those factors in: the slower than average guests at WDW, the large number of guests requiring extra time to load and the absence of a single riders line. Given the wings curious number of seats, there are bounds to be quite a few empty seats per cycle: 9 seats per A and C wings (there are 6 of those per theater) and 11 seats per B wings (there are 3 of those per theater).
I have done quite a bit of research on that ride system in general for an article I am currently editing.
alphac2005
Well-Known Member
It's another E-Ticket type attraction that adds capacity to the park. As it's been noted here a ton, they continue to follow the old Disney model. They're adding capacity that allows them to get more people in their parks, but by ADDING (gotta keep stressing that since Disney has abandoned that concept for all too long) attractions, they are able to keep things manageable for guests as there are more spots for people to be spread around the parks.
alphac2005
Well-Known Member
This is what drives me absolutely nuts about this environment of corporate greed today. You have interest rates at long-term record lows and the cost to borrow money for businesses is literally as low as you can go. We've had points in the bond market that over the course of the payback, the U.S. Treasury is essentially paying small amounts of interest for companies to borrow the funds. Yet we sit here with resources being strapped at many major corporations and the dividend payouts continue to rise. Not to mention stock buybacks when P/E ratios are too high and there is a lot of overvaluation in the market.
It's akin to our dysfunctional government with a Congress now comprised primarily of lawyers, who are more focused on winning their own side of the argument with their fellow members, rather than putting policies in place that are of benefit to the country. There is no better time to invest in infrastructure due to the historic lows in long-term interest rates. Irrational arguments about spending don't address the reality that these infrastructure projects are deemed as a necessity for civilization and aren't optional "programs." Instead, we'll (hopefully at best) end up doing the American thing of fixing things right before they virtually collapse and the costs will be vastly higher than just being proactive and taking advantage of today's fiscal incentives.
I'm sure that you've found it to be telling as well that there are many people in fiscal power that were once looked upon as greedy financial managers and they are trying to prod these corporate heads into investing in their companies again. Yes, it's in their long-term interest as fiscal managers because they see the writing on the wall on the investment side if the continuance of R&D, training, expansion cuts carry on, as they won't be able to grow money for their funds, but that's something. It wasn't too long ago that when hearing BlackRock, most people with some financial knowledge would think of being another part of the problem and tone deaf to reality. Things appear to be upside down at this point.
Fe Maiden
Well-Known Member
The mystery of why Bob Iger wasn't photographed in China has been solved. Apparently he had a cover shoot for the June 1st Barron's.
Have to admit it was pretty jarring to see the actual cover when it arrived in the mail on Saturday. Not had a chance to read it yet.
Have to admit it was pretty jarring to see the actual cover when it arrived in the mail on Saturday. Not had a chance to read it yet.
Katie G
Well-Known Member
Its not that hard to find the history if you know where to look. June/July have consistently had significant blockouts for guests in MK in the past 3 years, thought July 4th Cast ID block is new this year. Total number of blockout dates from Jan-July at MK are up 41% over last year.
I believe most CM know that they are being blocked out more at MK, though the other 3 parks are relatively small increases in blockouts. (AK is the only one that has less blockouts Jan-July than they did last year)
gmajew
Premium Member
I would pay more if it means I would have a nice quiet day in MK.... I would love to not feel like I am going to get run over going in between Small World and Peter Pan.... But then again I would also pay for a universal type express pass at WDW if it means I could just stroll at my own pace.
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
Here's the article, for anyone who is interested.The mystery of why Bob Iger wasn't photographed in China has been solved. Apparently he had a cover shoot for the June 1st Barron's.
Have to admit it was pretty jarring to see the actual cover when it arrived in the mail on Saturday. Not had a chance to read it yet.
http://online.barrons.com/articles/disneys-next-act-1432958493
Disney’s Next Act
Shares of Walt Disney trade at a premium price, and its latest big-budget film, Tomorrowland, already looks like yesterday’s news, thanks to lean box-office receipts over Memorial Day weekend. A write-down looks possible. But it’s a good time to buy Disney’s stock just the same. Nearly two years ago, The Lone Ranger cost more and opened worse, and the shares have since galloped more than 75% higher, to $110.37.
“This world’s appetite for great entertainment is bigger than it has ever been and probably bigger than Wall Street realizes,” says Disney CEO Bob Iger.Illustration: Thomas Reis for Barron's
They could rise another 50% over the next three years, to $165, just in time for CEO Bob Iger’s retirement, slated for 2018. One reason is that Disney’s success stems, not from an immunity to occasional flops, but from an unmatched ability to wring profits from winners. Disney (ticker: DIS) has far more deals with merchandise companies than its rivals -- 37% more than Viacom (VIA), 56% more than Time Warner (TWX), and seven times as many as DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA), according to a tally last year by investment bank Sterne Agee. It has more than 300 of its own stores worldwide. And it has parks and cruise lines brimming with tie-ins to hit movies.
What to Buy on Dips: Disney, Apple, Boeing, GE: Financial advisor Dryden Pence builds client portfolios that generate cash so he has funds available to buy good stocks in bad markets.
By expanding Disney’s ability to turn studio properties into rising profits for Disney’s adjacent businesses, Iger has been able to outbid rivals for key assets, including Pixar in 2006, Marvel Entertainment in 2009, and Lucasfilm in 2012. Disney’s deep reservoir of entertainment franchises now allows it to turn out hits with almost boring regularity. So far this year, Disney has the top share of the U.S. box office, based on just 10 films, versus 15 for No. 2 Comcast (CMCSA). Disney’s Avengers: Age of Ultron looks likely to join the top-five worldwide grossing films ever.
In other words, Disney can buy better stuff than its competitors because it can earn bigger profits on the stuff it buys -- a virtuous circle of investment. Its abilities are amplified by its television business, easily its biggest moneymaker thanks to sports powerhouse ESPN, with generous and growing cash flows to fund businesses across the $50-billion-in-revenue company. In between buying hit makers, Iger, 64, has spent richly on park expansions and upgrades. Over the next three years, this spending will slow and bear fruit; Disney’s free cash flow is expected to jump 30% in the fiscal year ending in September 2016, to $8.9 billion.
A key focus of the spending, Shanghai Disneyland, opens next spring. Local interest is high, judging by the mile-long line that formed when Disney opened its first Shanghai retail store in May. The company’s film slate includes a seventh Star Wars movie by the end of this year and an eighth in 2017, a Captain America release next year, and Toy Story and Pirates of the Caribbean movies in 2017. In 2018, there is another Avengers movie and perhaps Frozen 2 -- Disney has announced a sequel but not a date.
One more reason to bet on the stock is that the dozens of analysts who follow it seem to chronically guess too low on future earnings, for which Disney gives no guidance. Over the past four years, the company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 15 quarters and met them in one. The average upside surprise has been 8%. In the first two quarters of Disney’s current fiscal year, it beat by double-digit percentages. “This world’s appetite for great entertainment is bigger than it has ever been and probably bigger than Wall Street realizes,” Iger told Barron’s this past week.
As Disney has topped expectations, remaining estimates have tended to drift higher. Wall Street predicts the company will grow earnings per share by 16% this year, to $5.03, and 13% next year, to $5.67. It seems reasonable to assume it will come in near the high end of the forecast range for next year, at $6 a share. That would put the stock’s recent price at 18 times earnings.
In a research note published this past week, Wells Fargo Securities argues that given Disney’s ability to turn intellectual property into dependable and growing cash flows, investors should judge it relative to global companies with iconic brands, not just entertainment companies. Among them, Anheuser-Busch InBev(BUD) goes for 21 times next year’s earnings forecast; McDonald’s (MCD), 19 times; and 3M (MMM), 18 times. Disney is growing much faster than these.
BURBANK, CALIF.–BASED DISNEY traces its roots to 1923, when Walt Disney produced an animated short called Alice’s Wonderland. Mickey Mouse made his debut five years later in Steamboat Willie. Disney’s first feature-length animated film, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, came out in 1937. Ancient history, sure, but one of the top draws today at Disney World, the sprawling Florida cluster of theme parks, is the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, a zippy roller coaster with a preschooler-friendly height requirement. It opened last year. At Disney, the revenue tail for popular stories can stretch for decades. “At some point, you have to feed them, nurture them, but when you do, the financial results can be incredibly powerful,” says Iger.
Disney pushed into live-action films around 1950, and television several years later. Sixty years ago this July, it opened Disneyland in California, and in 1971 it added Disney World. In 1995, it bought Capital Cities/ABC, with its ESPN network, for $19 billion, the second-largest corporate takeover ever at the time.
Not all investments have been winners. Euro Disney, which opened in 1992 and now is called Disneyland Paris, has lost money in 16 of its 23 years of operation. Infoseek, bought out at top dollar during the dot-com-bubble era, yielded little more than write-offs and the Go.com Web address, which Disney uses as a home for its online operations. Iger, a former Ithaca, N.Y., weatherman who once ran ABC, took over as Disney’s chief in 2005. Over the past 10 years, shareholders have made over 16% annually, including dividends -- double the return for the Standard & Poor’s 500.
Today, Disney reports results in five divisions. Media networks consist of ESPN, the Disney Channel, and other cable networks, plus the broadcasting business of ABC and eight owned stations in big markets. ESPN alone could generate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of more than $4.5 billion this fiscal year, or 28% of projected Ebitda of $15.8 billion for Disney overall.
The prosperity of ESPN comes from long-term contracts across most professional and collegiate sports, which give it a wide lead in sports viewership. Sports watchers skew young and tend to watch live, commercials and all. Plus, commercial breaks are shorter, which makes individual commercials stand out more. That makes for solid advertising rates. But most of ESPN’s money comes from simply charging distributors like cable companies to carry the must-have channel, typically under long-term contracts with yearly escalators.
The Internet has broadly cut into television ratings. It promises to gradually change how shows are viewed and how networks charge. Says Iger: “If there’s a business better positioned than ESPN to withstand disruption, I don’t know what it is.” Meanwhile, ABC, like other major networks, has been able to extract rich and growing retransmission fees for programing that cable companies previously carried at little cost.
THE PARKS AND RESORTS DIVISION is benefiting from an improving economy following years of capacity expansion. According to JBL Advisors, a research boutique specializing in entertainment, investments include $800 million apiece for two cruise ships launched in 2011 and 2012; $500 million for Aulani Resort in Hawaii, opened in 2012; more than $1 billion for an ongoing redesign of Disney’s California Adventure in Anaheim; $800 million for a doubling of Fantasyland, the heart of Disney World’s Magic Kingdom in Florida, Disney’s busiest park; and $2.3 billion for Disney’s end of the tab at its 43%-owned Shanghai Disneyland, with the rest owned by Chinese firms.
Over the next three years, these investments should add $700 million to $800 million each year in new operating income, predicts JBL. That’s coming from a base of $2.7 billion in operating income for the division last year.
Jefferies predicts that Shanghai Disneyland will draw yearly attendance of 10 million in its first year, rising to 18 million in its fifth year. That compares with 16.2 million for the original Disneyland in California and 18.6 million for the Magic Kingdom in Florida, as of 2013.
Shoppers waited three hours to get into Shanghai’s new Disney store. That bodes well for a theme park opening nearby. Photo: ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images
In addition to growing capacity, Disney has lately coaxed visitors into spending more. The simplest way it does this is by raising prices each year on admission, food, and resort rooms. Subtler methods have included rolling out wristbands for effortless park purchases and a ride-reservation system that cuts waits, resulting in more time for buying frozen treats -- and Frozen toys. Gradually, fast profit growth at the parks is helping to reduce Disney’s financial dependence on television.
Disney also has part ownership in parks in Tokyo and Hong Kong.
The Studio Entertainment and Consumer Products divisions have recently been roughly equal profit contributors, although the studios book a cut of merchandise sales tied to recent releases. Disney in its latest quarterly earnings release still cites Frozen as a big merchandise mover. That raises the question of whether it can live up to difficult comparisons.
Enter the Wookiee: UBS projects that Star Wars: Episode VII–The Force Awakens will gross $2 billion worldwide, $800 million more than Frozen and behind only Avatar and Titanic. It sees consumer product sales tied to the film topping $11 billion. Disney has already scheduled a Star Wars spinoff called Rogue One and is planning a Star Wars theme-park expansion, with details to come later this year.
Star Wars could also give a nudge to Disney’s remaining division, a small but profitable Interactive unit, consisting mostly of videogames.
Disney could also have a hit with another studio’s film. It owns the theme-park rights to Avatar, produced by 21st Century Fox (FOXA). Director James Cameron is working on at least three sequels, expected to open between 2017 and 2019. Disney is building a massive Avatar land at its Animal Kingdom park in Florida, which it says will feature “nighttime experiences.” That’s significant because Animal Kingdom currently closes earlier than the other Disney World parks -- and long operating hours provides more opportunities to pitch merchandise.
PUT IT ALL TOGETHER, and investors three years from now could be looking forward to Disney earnings of over $8 a share. With little change to the price/earnings ratio between now and then, shares could rise to $165. The current dividend yield is 1%. Risks for investors include Star Wars or Shanghai Disneyland falling short of expectations, or a weakening economy cutting into theme-park attendance, television advertising, or stock valuations.
These seem offset by the potential rewards. Few companies right now have more or bigger likely winners on the horizon.
Katie G
Well-Known Member
To make that happen, you would need the ticket holder to declare in advance which day they are going so that you could guarantee admission to the people paying the higher price. But that just adds more pre-planning which most people seem to hate.
asianway
Well-Known Member
Didn't they announce this months ago?
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
This could be done in concert with eliminating park hopping and require pre ordering/scheduling QS and TS.
Mike S
Well-Known Member
DrActorKJ
Member
So after reading this post and logging out, this was a top story on Yahoo this morning:
https://www.yahoo.com/tv/s/disney-shares-may-rise-50-percent-three-years-181245014--finance.html
Yes, Barron's is anticipating a 50% stock price increase for Disney by 2018. What's more noteworthy is the fact that they admit this increase will be somewhat driven by Marvel and Star Wars! No, silly, not their presence in the domestic parks, but by the new Star Wars MOVIE and the slate of Marvel MOVIES.
The only mention of theme parks in the piece is about Shanghai, of which they admit Disney is just a 43% owner.
After spending time this spring at Universal and Disney World, the only Disney plans on the horizon are my first cruise next March. Unless I book another cruise, that's the end of my Disney travels until they earn back my business with something worth coming back for.