A Spirited Perfect Ten

[PhotoDave219]

That's our leading theory for DHS. Doesn't explain AK or MK though.

It certainly does not.....

 

[ford91exploder]

Because the last ticket increase was last February… That would be a full year.

There have been several years with two price increases. @ParentsOf4 had a chart on this a while back and I'm too lazy to search for it.

 

[gonzoWDW]

That's our leading theory for DHS. Doesn't explain AK or MK though.

Since @PhotoDave219 said to direct methodology questions to you, looking at the numbers has caused me to wonder, do they take into account throughput of each ride in conjunction with its respective wait time? I'm not sure if throughput can be found publicly, but that would help give an accurate idea of the actual crowd levels- after adjusting for people not in queues- right? Not really relevant since most people only care about wait times, but could still help with numbers tracking

 

[hopemax]

That's our leading theory for DHS. Doesn't explain AK or MK though.

I posted several months ago, that I was seeing an interesting observation that people had started saying a lot of positive things about AK, post FP+. Fastpass+ is a disruptor, and it takes time to reach a new equilibrium, on where people think WDW is "worth it." I would postulate, that short trippers, have reevaluated where to spend their time. When previously they would have visited the lesser 3 parks more evenly, I would guess more people are choosing AK now. Because you can still show up, with no FP+ and still accomplish everything people would most like to do, and the park still has a strong identity compared to what DHS and Epcot has become. MK is still the MK, and the number of entertainment options will make it king until the Castle falls down. I would expect as the price climbs higher, this trend to become stronger. MK/AK getting the nod for "it's still worth it, if we have to pick one and we aren't 'prepared' FP+-wise."

I would expect now that Food & Wine has started, Epcot will pull its weight a little more, but then drop back down post November whatever. But operations mucking around would change things too. I joke with my Dad you can always tell when ToT is only running 1 drop shaft, based on the wait time.

 

[cheezbat]

We're still trying to figure out what caused the crowds from around Sept 15-24. Those were without precedent. Oddly, they seemed not to happen at Universal Studios, IOA, or Epcot.

Oh really?
Because I visited USF and IOA three times during that period and the parks were nuts! (None of the days I visited were on the weekend) 60 minutes for JP River Adventure, 60 for Spidey, 70 for Forbidden Journey...and over at the other park 45 for Mummy, 80 for Gringotts... Yeah definitely slow season.

I went again last week, and for the first time waits were in the 15-30 minute ranges.

 

[Next Big Thing]

Attn Orlando Locals: If you've been missing Off-Kilter, they'll be playing the Winter Garden Music Festival this Saturday, 10 PM, Main Stage (Bright House).They are also playing the Celebration Fall Festivall on October 24th.

The downtown Winter Garden district is a great place to hang out, so much like World Showcase, grab a drink and enjoy a fan-favorite and piece of Epcot's past!

 

[lentesta]

Since @PhotoDave219 said to direct methodology questions to you, looking at the numbers has caused me to wonder, do they take into account throughput of each ride in conjunction with its respective wait time? I'm not sure if throughput can be found publicly, but that would help give an accurate idea of the actual crowd levels- after adjusting for people not in queues- right? Not really relevant since most people only care about wait times, but could still help with numbers tracking

It's a good idea. What makes it difficult is rides such as Space Mountain, which have variable capacity (they can add or subtract ride vehicles at will, up to a point). So for those rides, you don't know how many minutes = how many people, except on the very busiest days when the ride is running at full capacity.

There is some evidence that Disney uses projected attendance levels to tell the ride staff how many vehicles to run on these rides each morning. That's why it can take slightly less time to complete a touring plan at a crowd level '6' (on our scale) versus a '5'.

 

[GeneralZod]

Okay, some numbers breakdown from the Final Quarter, Crowd level wise.

The summertime trend held. There was no real dead period this September outside of 8/31-9/4 & 9/8-9/11. Crowds aren't back at the bedlam that was the rest of the summer, but they're above average as compared to the previous two years.

The summer? Akin to a Mickey Ward fight - absolutely brutal as a whole.

More to the point, expect more record crowds announced and record profits. Iger already said on the last conference call from last quarter that attendance was up domestically 4% over last year. I would expect that to hold.

Studios showed a weird trend in September: Every Monday pulled a 7+ crowd. (Monday is an EMH evening day but still, weird). MK is still running at pulling peak crowds 35% of this entire year. Studios has completely turned it around from a year ago, which surprises me. All the parks are pulling a 6+ crowd more often than a 5- crowd, meaning its above average more than 50% of this year so far.

So looking at what has happened in the past 2-3 years, from 2013-2014, the off-peak days pushed up and became average in 2014. (32% off peak / 53% avg / 15% peak in 2013 to 20%/68%/12% in 2014) The change from last year to this year is those average crowds have pushed up to peak levels. (23% Off/ 51% Avg / 26% Peak in 2015 as of the 10/3).

I can't tell you why this has happened, I can just point out the trends. And the trend is that there are some seriously long waits that weren't this frequent a few years ago.

Will this likely result in higher gate prices within the next six months in order to drive attendance back down to a more reasonable level while maintaining egregious profit margins? I'd predict yes, especially after today's AP changes.

As always, data pulled from the actual observations by @lentesta's Touring Plan's Crew.

So, with everyone becoming increasingly savvy of crowd prediction sites I am curious if this has reached the level to which it is actually changing attendance patterns. I have been in quite a few situations where non-Disney folk (or causal at best) have made comments around these types of sites and suggested I follow their recommendations.

Maybe we need to start planning on attending the parks when they are suggested to be at >8?

 

[danv3]

Because the last ticket increase was last February… That would be a full year.

Sure, but in the past few years we've seen increases in other months as well. I don't think they're wedded to a 12-month schedule, and I know they're not so ashamed of the lack of new offerings to delay for that reason.

 

[PhotoDave219]

So, with everyone becoming increasingly savvy of crowd prediction sites I am curious if this has reached the level to which it is actually changing attendance patterns. I have been in quite a few situations where non-Disney folk (or causal at best) have made comments around these types of sites and suggested I follow their recommendations.

Maybe we need to start planning on attending the parks when they are suggested to be at >8?

Pretty much… crowd levels don't necessarily translate well to attendance levels as Hollywood studios is rapidly beginning indicate.

Overall I look at it as a good barometer of how busy the parks are.

The other factor that may be driving things hire? Staffing levels. If the rides are properly staffed, then you're going to get long lines and blow this up… That would be another reasonable explanation as to why things are abnormally high over the summer and into the fall.

 

[GeneralZod]

Pretty much… crowd levels don't necessarily translate well to attendance levels as Hollywood studios is rapidly beginning indicate.

Overall I look at it as a good barometer of how busy the parks are.

The other factor that may be driving things hire? Staffing levels. If the rides are properly staffed, then you're going to get long lines and blow this up… That would be another reasonable explanation as to why things are abnormally high over the summer and into the fall.

We were there during the, supposed, low times of Labor Day and it was anything but.

 

[PhotoDave219]

We were there during the, supposed, low times of Labor Day and it was anything but.

Yeah.... The crowd levels were nasty.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

We were there during the, supposed, low times of Labor Day and it was anything but.

Labor Day was later this year and a lot of states are starting school at the first of August. Labor Day week would be the perfect time to pull the kids out of school ( which is crazy ). The week before LD look like it was a slow time. Well, slower.

 

[lentesta]

Oh really?
Because I visited USF and IOA three times during that period and the parks were nuts! (None of the days I visited were on the weekend) 60 minutes for JP River Adventure, 60 for Spidey, 70 for Forbidden Journey...and over at the other park 45 for Mummy, 80 for Gringotts... Yeah definitely slow season.

I went again last week, and for the first time waits were in the 15-30 minute ranges.

Ah, let me know those dates. I'd like to check what we got for wait times. Thanks for the note.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Brief piece in Time/Money on Surge Pricing -> http://time.com/money/4061526/disney-price-changes-increase/

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Brief piece in Time/Money on Surge Pricing -> http://time.com/money/4061526/disney-price-changes-increase/

Interesting article. Makes sense. Once Disney gets rid of all of the slow / off seasons with this strategy, will they start to raise the prices on the least expensive seasons.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Motley Fool Article suggesting Disney has gone too far -> http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ey-world-go-too-far.aspx#.VhMYYsC0n74.twitter

.....also looks like the writer/contributor reads these forums......

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Motley Fool Article suggesting Disney has gone too far -> http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ey-world-go-too-far.aspx#.VhMYYsC0n74.twitter

.....also looks like the writer/contributor reads these forums......

People may say Disney has gone to far but until they stop going to the resorts they will continue to raise prices. I haven't been to the parks since they started the up charges for a good seat to watch the parades and cupcakes but it sounds like people will pay the extra money on top admission prices to get in the park. People will continue to go.

 

[Cesar R M]

I sort of expected a visit from a friendly Spirit after last nights midnight announcement.

I'm sure he has an opinion on the subject.

I'll be sitting over here

In the corner

Patiently waiting....

(Tapping foot.)

(Checks watch)

(Some fidgeting)

(Checks watch again)

Refresh

(Sigh)

reality....

 

[Cesar R M]

Okay, some numbers breakdown from the Final Quarter, Crowd level wise.

The summertime trend held. There was no real dead period this September outside of 8/31-9/4 & 9/8-9/11. Crowds aren't back at the bedlam that was the rest of the summer, but they're above average as compared to the previous two years.

The summer? Akin to a Mickey Ward fight - absolutely brutal as a whole.

More to the point, expect more record crowds announced and record profits. Iger already said on the last conference call from last quarter that attendance was up domestically 4% over last year. I would expect that to hold.

Studios showed a weird trend in September: Every Monday pulled a 7+ crowd. (Monday is an EMH evening day but still, weird). MK is still running at pulling peak crowds 35% of this entire year. Studios has completely turned it around from a year ago, which surprises me. All the parks are pulling a 6+ crowd more often than a 5- crowd, meaning its above average more than 50% of this year so far.

So looking at what has happened in the past 2-3 years, from 2013-2014, the off-peak days pushed up and became average in 2014. (32% off peak / 53% avg / 15% peak in 2013 to 20%/68%/12% in 2014) The change from last year to this year is those average crowds have pushed up to peak levels. (23% Off/ 51% Avg / 26% Peak in 2015 as of the 10/3).

I can't tell you why this has happened, I can just point out the trends. And the trend is that there are some seriously long waits that weren't this frequent a few years ago.

Will this likely result in higher gate prices within the next six months in order to drive attendance back down to a more reasonable level while maintaining egregious profit margins? I'd predict yes, especially after today's AP changes.

As always, data pulled from the actual observations by @lentesta's Touring Plan's Crew.

well.. someone already mentioned that all the "discount" techniques are pretty much being eliminated or getting price hikes...
like tables in wonderland, the dinning packages..etc..