A Spirited 15 Rounds ...

[jakeman]

In the old EU, the authors were given an end point for their books and any key events that needed to happen (ie character X will die).

How they presented those events and how they got to their endpoint was entirely up to the author.

No reason to think a similar process isn't happening with the current EU, since pretty much the exact same people are at the helm.

 

[rael ramone]

And what is it that Disney/LucasFilm is expecting? 90% of TFa? 80%? 60%?

And does anyone have a link to that number?

Otherwise no matter what TLJ makes, it would be really easy to say, without any proof, that Disney expected more and they're disappointed. Which is something that the 20% who didn't like the movie are going to say.

....and this is why I commented on the business side here and not in the movie plot thread...

Executives can 'sandbag' what various aspects of their business will do, but in the end, whether total (company wide) revenue is a success or failure is determined if it hits what the analysts say it is going to deliver... and the fact that the business has a lower forward P/E then a current P/E says that they (the analysts) expect the company to grow - even with potential shrinkage in TV/Media due to more cord cutting. And if a company 'fails' the quarter, they better have a snazzy Conference Call...

I don't believe anyone from $DIS has 'sandbagged' TLJ expectations, but they know that they need their big 'tentpole' to contribute significantly to their bottom line - to the effect that it was expected to be the no-questioned big release of year end didn't stop them for pushing for the 'best' room in each theater for a full month (on top of that larger percentages of gate, and on top of whatever inflation happened to movie tickets in the last two years)... And it isn't unknown in any studio for corporate interference in the final product.

The mindset in Burbank may very well be 1) saga film generally considered superior to prior film + 2) better gate margins and 3) ticket price inflation = better numbers. And if those 'better numbers' don't surface, they may try to 'fix' (in their mind) the last saga film...

 

[the.dreamfinder]

....and this is why I commented on the business side here and not in the movie plot thread...

Executives can 'sandbag' what various aspects of their business will do, but in the end, whether total (company wide) revenue is a success or failure is determined if it hits what the analysts say it is going to deliver... and the fact that the business has a lower forward P/E then a current P/E says that they (the analysts) expect the company to grow - even with potential shrinkage in TV/Media due to more cord cutting. And if a company 'fails' the quarter, they better have a snazzy Conference Call...

I don't believe anyone from $DIS has 'sandbagged' TLJ expectations, but they know that they need their big 'tentpole' to contribute significantly to their bottom line - to the effect that it was expected to be the no-questioned big release of year end didn't stop them for pushing for the 'best' room in each theater for a full month (on top of that larger percentages of gate, and on top of whatever inflation happened to movie tickets in the last two years)... And it isn't unknown in any studio for corporate interference in the final product.

The mindset in Burbank may very well be 1) saga film generally considered superior to prior film + 2) better gate margins and 3) ticket price inflation = better numbers. And if those 'better numbers' don't surface, they may try to 'fix' (in their mind) the last saga film...

This film has about a $500 million production/marketing budget so it would break even around $1 Billion, which it’s projected to reach by Saturday. Most analyst guesses have the film coming in around $1.5 Billion so that’s a pretty hearty profit just from the theatrical run with home video, Netflix, and basic cable/broadcast dollars to come.

TLJ will do just fine. I suspect the concern about the film being a disappointment comes from merchandising revenues not hitting their targets. Keep in mind Disney Consumer Products has been making money off SW since they bought it back in 2012/FY2013.

 

[HauntedPirate]

I don't know if $DIS thought TLJ would do as well as TFA, but they made sure they were going to make as much, if not more, money off of it. Look at the things they pulled with movie theaters if you want evidence - **65%** of each ticket sale, minimum # of weeks in the top theater, etc. That doesn't say to me that the movie studio is confident in its product, it smells like a movie studio that's desperate.

Personally, I think they've damaged Ep9, and possibly the SW brand in general, with some of what they did in Ep8. I, for one, am not applauding Rian Johnson for the hot pile of garbage he made. Between the thousands of negative Joe Star-Wars-Fan reviews and Mark Hamill on record as saying, "This isn't my Luke Skywalker", you have a good reason to be wary. Disney's response? "It making money!" "It's selling merchandise!!!" It took all of 4 years of Disney/Iger's "guidance" to reduce nearly 40 years of Star Wars fandom into a pile of rubble. Bravo.

Call me a curmudgeon if you wish, but Disney doesn't have the Midas touch it used to have, and the only thing Disney is doing right these days movie-wise is letting Kevin Feige run the MCU. They've run Pirates into the ground. They're running Star Wars into the ground. Pixar is... well, Pixar, but we need to see what's going to happen with them and WDAS without Lasseter.

 

[Bairstow]

I don't know if $DIS thought TLJ would do as well as TFA, but they made sure they were going to make as much, if not more, money off of it. Look at the things they pulled with movie theaters if you want evidence - **65%** of each ticket sale, minimum # of weeks in the top theater, etc. That doesn't say to me that the movie studio is confident in its product, it smells like a movie studio that's desperate.

Personally, I think they've damaged Ep9, and possibly the SW brand in general, with some of what they did in Ep8. I, for one, am not applauding Rian Johnson for the hot pile of garbage he made. Between the thousands of negative Joe Star-Wars-Fan reviews and Mark Hamill on record as saying, "This isn't my Luke Skywalker", you have a good reason to be wary. Disney's response? "It making money!" "It's selling merchandise!!!" It took all of 4 years of Disney/Iger's "guidance" to reduce nearly 40 years of Star Wars fandom into a pile of rubble. Bravo.

Call me a curmudgeon if you wish, but Disney doesn't have the Midas touch it used to have, and the only thing Disney is doing right these days movie-wise is letting Kevin Feige run the MCU. They've run Pirates into the ground. They're running Star Wars into the ground. Pixar is... well, Pixar, but we need to see what's going to happen with them and WDAS without Lasseter.

I don't think Marvel is "the only thing" Disney has going for them, even when it comes to movie revenues. Their Beauty and the Beast remake made gobs of money.

I do think they need to carefully consider whether Kennedy is the right one to shepherd the Lucasfilm properties, though. Unless episode 9 sticks the landing and heads off any long-term loss of merchandise entusiasm episode 8 may or may not cause, I would imagine she's done.

I'm also bullish on Disney Animation going forward. If even half of the stories I'm hearing are true, Lasseter was doing more than harm there than good, just by making half of his workforce hate their lives.

 

[shortstop]

Personally, I think they've damaged Ep9, and possibly the SW brand in general, with some of what they did in Ep8. I, for one, am not applauding Rian Johnson for the hot pile of garbage he made. Between the thousands of negative Joe Star-Wars-Fan reviews and Mark Hamill on record as saying, "This isn't my Luke Skywalker", you have a good reason to be wary. Disney's response? "It making money!" "It's selling merchandise!!!" It took all of 4 years of Disney/Iger's "guidance" to reduce nearly 40 years of Star Wars fandom into a pile of rubble. Bravo.

Oh come on, man, get off your high horse. The film has been nearly universally praised by critics. The people who don’t like it are either people who have an existing grudge against Star Wars/Disney and fanboys who thought they had the perfect plot figured out and are mad the movie didn’t play out the way they expected. It’s delusional to think Star Wars is damaged in any way. If you want a hot pile of garbage, you’re looking at the wrong Star Wars trilogy.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Oh come on, man, get off your high horse. The film has been nearly universally praised by critics. The people who don’t like it are either people who have an existing grudge against Star Wars/Disney and fanboys who thought they had the perfect plot figured out and are mad the movie didn’t play out the way they expected. It’s delusional to think Star Wars is damaged in any way. If you want a hot pile of garbage, you’re looking at the wrong Star Wars trilogy.

I had no pre-existing grudge against Disney/Star Wars. I had no "perfect plot figured out". The movie didn't play out in any sort of logical way. But I'm on a high horse. My opinion doesn't matter. Only movie critics are allowed to like or dislike a movie. And I'm wrong. Gotcha.

You couldn't sound more condescending if you tried. Buh bye.

 

[shortstop]

I had no pre-existing grudge against Disney/Star Wars. I had no "perfect plot figured out". The movie didn't play out in any sort of logical way. But I'm on a high horse. My opinion doesn't matter. Only movie critics are allowed to like or dislike a movie. And I'm wrong. Gotcha.

You couldn't sound more condescending if you tried. Buh bye.

Apologies, I don’t mean to come across as condescending. If you or others don’t like the movie, that’s perfectly fine, although I disagree that it didn’t play out in any logical way. It just seems overly dramatic to me to say that this movie will have negative effects on SW’s future as a franchise.

 

[Disney Analyst]

In addition to the recent articles (e.g., "JJ is Pitching his Idea for Episode IX to Iger" or https://screenrant.com/star-wars-8-rian-johnson-freedom-no-pre-planned-story/), the "Art of" books make it pretty clear that there is/was no "master plan" nor pre-planned, over-arching storyline for this new trilogy.

They are building this plane mid-flight.

Not so sure. They seem to be using George’s outline as a primary source of inspiration.

In the old EU, the authors were given an end point for their books and any key events that needed to happen (ie character X will die).

How they presented those events and how they got to their endpoint was entirely up to the author.

No reason to think a similar process isn't happening with the current EU, since pretty much the exact same people are at the helm.

"There was no established origin that Johnson inherited when he signed on to the movie. He was free to resolve it as he liked."

http://ew.com/movies/2017/12/16/the-last-jedi-spoiler-rey-parents/2/

Obviously this could strictly be about Rey's past but.... it seems like they are given pretty free range.

 

[Bairstow]

Oh come on, man, get off your high horse. The film has been nearly universally praised by critics. The people who don’t like it are either people who have an existing grudge against Star Wars/Disney and fanboys who thought they had the perfect plot figured out and are mad the movie didn’t play out the way they expected. It’s delusional to think Star Wars is damaged in any way. If you want a hot pile of garbage, you’re looking at the wrong Star Wars trilogy.

I think that's an over-exaggeration as well.
It's way too early to say whether the seething disappointment of a lot of fans will impact the viability of the brand as a whole, but you needn't go further than this very forum to see that a lot of people are very unhappy with the film. The only way to gauge whether Episode 8 truly has damaged the merch/game/etc side of Star Wars is to watch whether Disney makes management shakeups at Lucasfilm.

 

[shortstop]

I think that's an over-exaggeration as well.
It's way too early to say whether the seething disappointment of a lot of fans will impact the viability of the brand as a whole, but you needn't go further than this very forum to see that a lot of people are very unhappy with the film. The only way to gauge whether Episode 8 truly has damaged the merch/game/etc side of Star Wars is to watch whether Disney makes management shakeups at Lucasfilm.

Very true, I’ll concede I am guilty of over-exaggeration myself for the sake of making a point. I think Ep. 8 wasn’t a highly merchandiseable movie in general, which can’t be pleasing to the suits, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out within Lucasfilm.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

"There was no established origin that Johnson inherited when he signed on to the movie. He was free to resolve it as he liked."

http://ew.com/movies/2017/12/16/the-last-jedi-spoiler-rey-parents/2/

Obviously this could strictly be about Rey's past but.... it seems like they are given pretty free range.

You and @jakeman are talking about two different things. You're correct. JJ and Johnson have pretty much had carte blanche when it comes to telling the saga story. The authors of the novels and comic books are slightly more restricted, in that everything they do has to sync up with what JJ and Johnson are doing in the films. The LucasFilm Story Group ties these threads together.

One interesting anecdote is that it was Kathleen Kennedy's idea for Leia to use the Force in Episode IX, so they planted those seeds in the Bloodline and Leia: Princess of Alderaan novels.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think Ep. 8 wasn’t a highly merchandiseable movie in general, which can’t be pleasing to the suits, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out within Lucasfilm.

Lolwut? Do you even Porg, bro?

 

[asianway]

Oh come on, man, get off your high horse. The film has been nearly universally praised by critics. The people who don’t like it are either people who have an existing grudge against Star Wars/Disney and fanboys who thought they had the perfect plot figured out and are mad the movie didn’t play out the way they expected. It’s delusional to think Star Wars is damaged in any way. If you want a hot pile of garbage, you’re looking at the wrong Star Wars trilogy.

Most best picture winners are loved by critics, but that doesnt mean the masses want to see them.

 

[shortstop]

Lolwut? Do you even Porg, bro?

Porgs aside

Most best picture winners are loved by critics, but that doesnt mean the masses want to see them.

True, which is interesting.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Most best picture winners are loved by critics, but that doesnt mean the masses want to see them.

$1.5 billion by the time all is said and done. The masses are seeing it just fine.

 

[peter11435]

I don't know if $DIS thought TLJ would do as well as TFA, but they made sure they were going to make as much, if not more, money off of it. Look at the things they pulled with movie theaters if you want evidence - **65%** of each ticket sale, minimum # of weeks in the top theater, etc. That doesn't say to me that the movie studio is confident in its product, it smells like a movie studio that's desperate.

Personally, I think they've damaged Ep9, and possibly the SW brand in general, with some of what they did in Ep8. I, for one, am not applauding Rian Johnson for the hot pile of garbage he made. Between the thousands of negative Joe Star-Wars-Fan reviews and Mark Hamill on record as saying, "This isn't my Luke Skywalker", you have a good reason to be wary. Disney's response? "It making money!" "It's selling merchandise!!!" It took all of 4 years of Disney/Iger's "guidance" to reduce nearly 40 years of Star Wars fandom into a pile of rubble. Bravo.

Call me a curmudgeon if you wish, but Disney doesn't have the Midas touch it used to have, and the only thing Disney is doing right these days movie-wise is letting Kevin Feige run the MCU. They've run Pirates into the ground. They're running Star Wars into the ground. Pixar is... well, Pixar, but we need to see what's going to happen with them and WDAS without Lasseter.

Lol

 

[MisterPenguin]

We've been discussing this in TLJ SPOILERS thread.

80-90% of the audience gives TLJ a thumbs up. That's from critics, 3 different scientifically sampled polls, one an unscientific self-selecting poll on IMDB which has a lot more 'votes' than RT. The outlier is RT's unscientific self-selecting poll. So, a fluke, or being tampered with by people with grudges, but not at all accurate.

A summary...

View attachment 251704


View attachment 251706

This leaves Box Office numbers. What exactly was TLJ supposed to make compared to TFA? 100% as much? 80%? 50% (which is where Rogue 1 is at)?
Comparing the drop-off from Ep 4 to 5 and Ep 1 to 2, then you'd expect TLJ to be at 66%... which it seems it is on track to make.

You're right, because down 31% or 37% would be consistent. And if TLJ takes in $1.36 Billion, which it seems on track to at least, then it would be perfectly consistent as others have said above with the drop off from the first of a trilogy to the second...

View attachment 252464

Here's your chart. Otherwise knows as... facts.

So, the only data point showing that TLJ hurt the franchise in any way is the outlier RT number... and the ferocity of the haters who try to make it seem like more didn't like it than real polls show.

 

[cheezbat]

Well I don't know where all the numbers are coming from, but Star Wars is very popular among the masses. That being said, of the people I know that are big Star Wars fans and (obviously) saw the movie, a bit more than half loved it, a bit less than half hated it. I thought it was pretty good...I've never seen such a serious divide in a Star Wars fan base on one movie. Episode VIII has really separated the fans.

 

[burgeristaalways]

Sorry to interrupt the chatter and go a tad off topic, I just wanted to say 'hello' and a Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to Spirit. 2018 will be a good one.