News 2021 Theme Index

[crazy4disney]

Big shot? Hell no. I was a baby…youngest in the building - I do believe (of very close)…for a short tenure.

But there was access to data. You can’t analyze pricing and sales (my lane) without access to the data

what made you no longer work for the mouse? hopefully retirement? or did you find better pastures away from the company?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

i understand that part... im just curious how TEA calculates their estimates.... if i park hop do they include me in both #s

You definitely don't count as 2 attendees. The questions is really just whether you would count as only the first park or if you get allocated somehow.

I think what they do is estimate attendance for Walt Disney World overall, and then use separate methodology to allocate ratios to each
park. So hopping from Magic Kingdom to Epcot might look something like 0.6 "clicks" for Magic Kingdom and 0.4 "clicks" for Epcot.

 

[mightynine]

Yep. Also, TWDC is a:
-retail products company
-cruise line
-theme park operator
-hotel/time share operator
-movie studio
-on again, off again game developer

And, increasingly, to the detriment of those core competencies…

-a tech streamer

That last one is going to either sink the company or, if wildly successful, make the other components less desirable in terms of ROI.

Good luck finding anyone externally who could manage this array of businesses.

Oh, you're not. I agree. Heck, when you lay it out like that, how could anyone think Chappie could lead this?

But then, finding someone who could be a leader and visionary for all of that is, well, a unicorn. What you need is a good leader who knows what they don't know and surrounds themselves by good leaders for each division who do.

What Disney has right now is not that, IMO.

 

[el_super]

Not saying I like it but it would seem Disney is using park reservations/Genie+ to make up for lost revenue due to fewer guests in the parks.

That's not at all far off from their stated intentions. It was 2019 when Iger said he wanted fewer people in the park. We haven't seen it in action due to COVID, but now as things are returning to normal, a reduction in the overall attendance was to be expected.

I wonder if all the "Disney doesn't care about Epic Universe" people still think that.

Yep. Still think that.

Universal is a huge threat to Disney's future dominance, and Disney knows that. The MK expansion and AK expansions were shown in desperation.

Disney isn't worried about "dominating" the theme park business. They are concerned only with maximizing the amount of revenue coming in. They do not care what Universal is doing, anymore than they care what Merlin or Cedar Fair or Six Flags are doing. If we do reach a point where attendance numbers matter moreso than revenue, Disney can drop their prices and the hordes of people will come running back. But as far as revenue is concerned, they only need to focus on their own operations.


It will be interesting though to see what happens to Universal if they keep growing (or if they even can keep growing). If they reach a point where they are on top, and there is no where to go attendance wise, and no more market share to capture, what happens then? Will their parks be as miserably crowded as Disney's? Will people still be willing to endure 10+ hour waits for major attractions? Will they stop building attractions? Will they pivot as Disney has and aim for quality over quantity?

 

[crazy4disney]

You definitely don't count as 2 attendees. The questions is really just whether you would count as only the first park or if you get allocated somehow.

I think what they do is estimate attendance for Walt Disney World overall, and then use separate methodology to allocate ratios to each
park. So hopping from Magic Kingdom to Epcot might look something like 0.6 "clicks" for Magic Kingdom and 0.4 "clicks" for Epcot.

Interesting. Thank you.

 

[el_super]

I don’t think people realize how low Disney was capping attendance in 2020 and much of 2021.

In addition to this, I also haven't seen anyone mention the changes to park hopping as a factor.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

I think that's wishful thinking. I don't see them going in that direction where they spend spend spend.

8 years from now is a long time for things to change. And it's not about how much you spend as a business, it's what you get in return for that spend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

what made you no longer work for the mouse? hopefully retirement? or did you find better pastures away from the company?

Several reasons…but not baking in Florida below comparable market rate was a big one. Do something completely else now.

I will say: vacationing is different than living next to the vacation. Not the same really at all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Long-term, maybe.

But not in 2021. The parks weren't "sold out" to their fire capacity or whatever, but I absolutely believe that they were sold out relative to their ability to staff. T&S F&B and hotel rooms are the easiest example. Sure, Disney wants to minimize labor expense, but they're not going to deliberately take the trade-off of losing $60 per head breakfast checks at Garden Grill and Crystal Palace just to minimize workforce costs.

Limiting labor to save operating costs makes sense, but limiting labor to forego revenue in excess of operating costs does not.

Yeah…but they could have brought in more staff. They’ve chosen not to.

A lot of it was biding time until their indentured servitude (foreign and domestic) was back to insane levels.

Paying $2 more an hour fixes this

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

i understand that part... im just curious how TEA calculates their estimates.... if i park hop do they include me in both #s

Honestly: likely a paid internal leak or Disney leaking it themselves when it benefits their business or PR narrative

Not sure that’s the case this time?

 

[Tha Realest]

Yeah…but they could have brought in more staff. They’ve chosen not to.

A lot of it was biding time until their indentured servitude (foreign and domestic) was back to insane levels.

I always thought they took a calculated gamble that 1) the labor market demand issues would subside over time, and they didn't want a new baseline for wages that would be much more costly in a normal/recession like labor market, and 2) that COVID uncertainly (and liquidity issues, caused in part by financing Fox acquisition) put the brakes on a lot.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The way some discuss COVID you’d think Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando Resort were operating in completely different jurisdictions.

You don’t think Osceola county wasn’t the “supreme ball buster”?

I don’t think people realize how low Disney was capping attendance in 2020 and much of 2021.

Yes…but why?
By choice…and with solutions if they wanted them.

 

[crazy4disney]

Honestly: likely a paid internal leak or Disney leaking it themselves when it benefits their business or PR narrative

Not sure that’s the case this time?

no way that happens in the corporate world

 

[crazy4disney]

Several reasons…but not baking in Florida below comparable market rate was a big one. Do something completely else now.

I will say: vacationing is different than living next to the vacation. Not the same really after all.

i would guess in a better way vacation wise... & good for you... are you in NY or close by that you love to talk about Wall St & the corporate world?

 

[OG Runner]

Let's make this easier for everybody:

2021

Magic Kingdom 12.6 million
Islands of Adventure 9 million
Universal Studios Florida 8.9 million
Disney's Hollywood Studios 8.5 million
EPCOT 7.7 million
Animal Kingdom 7.1 million

This will also make if easier for everyone. 2021 WDW: 35.9 million attendance Universal Florida: 17.9 million attendance.
Almost half as many people. They are getting there, but still have a long way to go. I am sure Epic Universe will help but
that is still a few years away.

 

[Cliff]

I forgot where I read this but there was a Disney research study that asked a simple and very general blanket question. It was something to the effect:

"What is your overall opinion of the Walt Disney Company today?"

The study showed that people's overall favorability opinion of the company has dropped significantly over the past several years. It's seems that the powerfull Disney "halo" that it has had over its history is beginning to fade? Is the Disney brand as a whole losing the historic goodwill that it has always enjoyed for so long??

I dont know the answer to this question. But...i do feel that it has hurt itself from a public relations point of view in recent years. Price hikes and difficult schedualing rules have made the parks more complicated today. Disney's public moves into poltics have also hurt their halo too.

I wish I could find that study article to post here.

 

[danlb_2000]

i understand that part... im just curious how TEA calculates their estimates.... if i park hop do they include me in both #s

That's my point, they aren't counting you, they are using other things to determine an attendance number for the part. They have no way of knowing if people are hopping.

 

[crazy4disney]

That's my point, they aren't counting you, they are using other things to determine an attendance number for the part. They have no way of knowing if people are hopping.

Got it… so some metric only they use that noone else does. Or as been suggested possibly Disney leaking #s when it fits their narrative

 

[lazyboy97o]

Got it… so some metric only they use that noone else does. Or as been suggested possibly Disney leaking #s when it fits their narrative

TEA does not do the actual estimates. The actual estimated is done by AECOM who are a major playing in economic forecasting and feasibility for entertainment projects. They became the estimator for this report when they bought Economic Research Associates, Buzz Price’s firm. Metrics they use are used across the industry.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

This is all from 2021 and in some ways this report feels like the biggest time capsule TEA has ever released. We're in a very different environment in Fall 2022 than Spring 2021.

That’s the perfect term for this report, time capsule, it’s not an indicator of anything other than how a global pandemic and each companies closures and policies affected different resorts.