2015 theme park attendance

[twebber55]

You don't actually have to look that far back. Thanks to the nice charts from @donsullivan in 2010, the year Harry Potter opened in IOA.

IOA: 5,949,000
USF: 5,925,000
DHS : 9,603,000
AK: 9,686,000
Epcot: 10,825,000

So Universal's deficit was:

IOA: 3.65 Million (DHS), 3.74 Million (AK), 4.88 Million (Epcot)
USF: 3.68 Million (DHS), 3.76 Million (AK), 4.9 Million (Epcot)

2015:

IOA: 8,792,000
USF: 9,585,000
DHS: 10,828,000
AK: 10,922,000
EPCOT: 11,798,000

Universal's deficit is:

IOA: 2.04 Million (AK), 2.13 Million (DHS), 3.01 (Epcot)
USF: 1.24 Million (AK), 1.34 Million (DHS), 2.21 (Epcot)

Five years, and IOA has cut the deficit to AK/DHS by 44%/43% and 38% to Epcot, USF has cut the deficit 66% to AK, 64% to DHS, and 55% to Epcot. Five years! USF numbers are now equivalent to 2010 AK/DHS numbers, and IOA numbers match 2005 AK/DHS numbers. And I expect the opening of Kong to pull IOA numbers closer.

This isn't a football game, where the clock will expire and you can ignore the fact that the other team outscored you 21-10 in the last quarter. Or a horse race, where real estate runs out and you still win, though everyone can clearly see the 2nd place horse was faster in the final stretch. There is no finish line and recently, Disney has said that they are "okay" with attendance declines so what does the future hold? What business wouldn't want to see that sort of improvement vs its competition? It shows that your investments are working.

The biggest thing Universal has gained is not raw attendance, it's the perception of their parks being an "equivalent experience," or at least they've gotten to the point where legitimate discussion can be had, and everyone isn't going to just bust out laughing. Disney fans hope that the war will be won by 2020 when Star Wars opens, but given the different construction timelines, we haven't even SEEN the cards Comcast/Universal is holding. Exciting times (in a good way for a change)!

all great info
one thing i will say is i think you also have to look at IOA s numbers before there fall off before HP was built

 

[donsullivan]

I found a missing data element and was able to add a few more earlier years to the Orlando Market Share chart taking it back to 2000 now.

I'm missing 1999 numbers for Sea World or I could go back to 1998 with the chart.

 

[Crazydisneyfanluke]

I agree with you..... especially with Bob saying attendance was down at Orlando in 2Q. I think the prices are finally too much for some people, plus the lack of anything new opening. (ReTheming doesnt count)

Edit: And It bugged me so much about the mislabeled photos (WDW/Disneyland mixup) that I emailed their editor.

I looked at page 30 online, seems like it was fixed. It said Disneyland as of 7:30pm tonight.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I looked at page 30 online, seems like it was fixed. It said Disneyland as of 7:30pm tonight.

WooHoo. Because that was a tad embarrassing for TEA

 

[WDW1974]

Ah the annual numbers game. A time when fanbois whip them out and play "mine's bigger than yours ... but how are you measuring?''

I'll just wade in briefly, before I need boots to keep the yucky stuff off me.

What I can say about WDW's numbers is that what is being reported for The Corpse of The Disney-MGM Studios, frankly, is borderline impossible. This comes from Ops folks. People who know very simply how many bodies you can stick in one place at one time. That place. Sure, 2015 was a good year for O-Town and a good year for WDW, but that doesn't make those numbers accurate. We can go back and forth on the whole 'first click' game or the 'comps' or the 'hard ticket events' and how they make WDW's numbers say all sorts of things.

WDW just makes things incredibly difficult to read or interpret because with four parks and an undeclared system for counting admits ...well, you don't know what those numbers mean at all.

I can also say that DL's numbers, most especially DCA's, are being under-reported. Don't ask me for agendas because they are not mine. But DCA had far more Guests in 2015 than TEA is reporting according to individuals who would know.

UNI's FL numbers continue to sparkle, but at some point they will have to rely on new product that isn't Potter to drive growth. It's also interesting to see how the Potter bump has effected Osaka, while thus far doing almost nothing in Hollywood (of course, it is way too soon to make any conclusions there).

That's about it for now. Haven't had enough time to really digest them ...

 

[PhotoDave219]

Ah the annual numbers game. A time when fanbois whip them out and play "mine's bigger than yours ... but how are you measuring?''

I'll just wade in briefly, before I need boots to keep the yucky stuff off me.

What I can say about WDW's numbers is that what is being reported for The Corpse of The Disney-MGM Studios, frankly, is borderline impossible. This comes from Ops folks. People who know very simply how many bodies you can stick in one place at one time. That place. Sure, 2015 was a good year for O-Town and a good year for WDW, but that doesn't make those numbers accurate. We can go back and forth on the whole 'first click' game or the 'comps' or the 'hard ticket events' and how they make WDW's numbers say all sorts of things.

WDW just makes things incredibly difficult to read or interpret because with four parks and an undeclared system for counting admits ...well, you don't know what those numbers mean at all.

I can also say that DL's numbers, most especially DCA's, are being under-reported. Don't ask me for agendas because they are not mine. But DCA had far more Guests in 2015 than TEA is reporting according to individuals who would know.

UNI's FL numbers continue to sparkle, but at some point they will have to rely on new product that isn't Potter to drive growth. It's also interesting to see how the Potter bump has effected Osaka, while thus far doing almost nothing in Hollywood (of course, it is way too soon to make any conclusions there).

That's about it for now. Haven't had enough time to really digest them ...

As usual, the only park growth is MK - the other 3 are flat. Hell, the other 3 parks have been flat growth-wise for a good nine years now.

Of course.... attendance was down in 2Q16 (Jan-March for those playing the home game).

 

[wdwgreek]

Ah the annual numbers game. A time when fanbois whip them out and play "mine's bigger than yours ... but how are you measuring?''

I'll just wade in briefly, before I need boots to keep the yucky stuff off me.

What I can say about WDW's numbers is that what is being reported for The Corpse of The Disney-MGM Studios, frankly, is borderline impossible. This comes from Ops folks. People who know very simply how many bodies you can stick in one place at one time. That place. Sure, 2015 was a good year for O-Town and a good year for WDW, but that doesn't make those numbers accurate. We can go back and forth on the whole 'first click' game or the 'comps' or the 'hard ticket events' and how they make WDW's numbers say all sorts of things.

WDW just makes things incredibly difficult to read or interpret because with four parks and an undeclared system for counting admits ...well, you don't know what those numbers mean at all.

I can also say that DL's numbers, most especially DCA's, are being under-reported. Don't ask me for agendas because they are not mine. But DCA had far more Guests in 2015 than TEA is reporting according to individuals who would know.

UNI's FL numbers continue to sparkle, but at some point they will have to rely on new product that isn't Potter to drive growth. It's also interesting to see how the Potter bump has effected Osaka, while thus far doing almost nothing in Hollywood (of course, it is way too soon to make any conclusions there).

That's about it for now. Haven't had enough time to really digest them ...

The fact DHS is holding steady is a miracle and a half! I hardily agree, even on the busiest days of of spring break the park was empty!

 

[jmmc]

Personally, considering how crowded the parks were on some of the days of my last trip, I don't think I want attendance levels to go up...

 

[jmmc]

The fact DHS is holding steady is a miracle and a half! I hardily agree, even on the busiest days of of spring break the park was empty!

I think even without Star Wars land, the increased presence of Star Wars in the parks probably is helping.

Also, does it make sense to factor in that when people actually go on a week long Disney vacation they are likely to spend at least a day at every park? I agree that there's a lot less I'm interested in at DHS, but I'm still not going to miss Star Tours or Tower of Terror if I'm at WDW for several days.

 

[WDWVolFan]

Oil just hit $50/barrel...if the upward trend continues and the Fed raises interest rates, late summer as well as the rest of the year will see a drop off in travel, airline tickets going up, etc.
Brazilians are not leaving to go nowhere, have you seen what we have going on down there? All my friends and family who had trips schedules to come to the US this year, some to visit me, already bailed on their plans.
These things will impact the overall attendance of the Orlando parks.

 

[Brad Bishop]

Why is that? The majority of people going to Walt Disney World are still going to visit Hollywood Studios even with the construction going on.

That's what I think. DHS benefits from "While we're here." If it were a stand alone park it would have failed back in the early 1990s. As it is, people go to WDW largely to see the MK but also go for multiple days and visit each park during those and that helps DHS and probably DAK. I think Epcot's numbers are largely due to the festivals. People seem to love to pay $100 cover charge so that they can buy F&W.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

So, once again WDW lost market share to Universal.

 

[Brad Bishop]

One of Disney's biggest problems

I think it's less about construction and more about trying to play "catch up". I think some construction in each of the parks is tolerated. The fact that they are finally trying to fix DHS after years of neglect is what makes the construction bad. Had they been adding to it over the years you'd just have that odd are boarded up and that'd be in.

I can be a bit more forgiving to DAK as, yes, the construction walls were pretty bad (it wasn't a nature park but a maze park the last time I was there) but what they're trying to do is a pretty grand scale with the tree of life and RoL. Yeah, Pandora is there but it's off to the side and what was there, Camp Minnie Mickey, was pretty thin.

 

[TP2000]

While the TEA finances and publishes this report I think it is important to note that they are not the ones doing the actual estimates. The estimates are done by AECOM, a global conglomerate that really got into the themed entertainment analytics market by acquiring Economic Research Associates, the company founded by Harrison "Buzz" Price. Their not some two-bit operation and their business is entirely dependent on this type of work being accurate.

And yet they just published their annual report with a splashy coverpage of Disneyland labeled as Walt Disney World. Then followed that up with a big daytime shot of Disneyland on page 31, labeled as Walt Disney World.

They obviously aren't that accurate.

 

[lazyboy97o]

And yet they just published their annual report with a splashy coverpage of Disneyland labeled as Walt Disney World. Then followed that up with a big daytime shot of Disneyland on page 31, labeled as Walt Disney World.

They obviously aren't that accurate.

Economic forecasting and graphic design are not exactly the same job position.

 

[BrerJon]

I suspect most DHS guests only stay a couple of hours, so it may well be getting the same amount of visitors as always, they're just not staying very long, making crowds very light. That's the only explanation I can think of.

 

[asianway]

So, once again WDW lost market share to Universal.

Market Share - A metric 99.9% of #DisneyTwitter cant comprehend....

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Market Share - A metric 99.9% of #DisneyTwitter cant comprehend....

WDW is

 

[PhotoDave219]

And yet they just published their annual report with a splashy coverpage of Disneyland labeled as Walt Disney World. Then followed that up with a big daytime shot of Disneyland on page 31, labeled as Walt Disney World.

They obviously aren't that accurate.

They fixed it. Clearly work done by people who think that all Disney castles look alike. (No, all CPs look alike.)

Market Share - A metric 99.9% of #DisneyTwitter cant comprehend....

WDW is

Of course Disney's market share is better than 2001-2004.... Its hovering right around 70%. Good to see Universal rebound the way they have.

Tho SeaWorld? I think its a matter of time until they are forced out.....

 

[Next Big Thing]

So, once again WDW lost market share to Universal.

You could look at it that way. Or you could look at it as things are restored to about the 2002 TEA market share, with the exception of WDW gaining 3%.