2015 theme park attendance

[PhotoDave219]

You don't actually have to look that far back. Thanks to the nice charts from @donsullivan in 2010, the year Harry Potter opened in IOA.

IOA: 5,949,000
USF: 5,925,000
DHS : 9,603,000
AK: 9,686,000
Epcot: 10,825,000

So Universal's deficit was:

IOA: 3.65 Million (DHS), 3.74 Million (AK), 4.88 Million (Epcot)
USF: 3.68 Million (DHS), 3.76 Million (AK), 4.9 Million (Epcot)

This year:

IOA: 8,792,000
USF: 9,585,000
DHS: 10,828,000
AK: 10,922,000
EPCOT: 11,798,000

Universal's deficit is:

IOA: 2.04 Million (AK), 2.13 Million (DHS), 3.01 (Epcot)
USF: 1.24 Million (AK), 1.34 Million (DHS), 2.21 (Epcot)

Five years, and IOA has cut the deficit to AK/DHS by 44%/43% and 38% to Epcot, USF has cut the deficit 66% to AK, 64% to DHS, and 55% to Epcot. Five years! USF numbers are now equivalent to 2010 AK/DHS numbers, and IOA numbers match 2005 AK/DHS numbers. And I expect the opening of Kong to pull IOA numbers closer.

This isn't a football game, where the clock will expire and you can ignore the fact that the other team outscored you 21-10 in the last quarter. Or a horse race, where real estate runs out and you still win, though everyone can clearly see the 2nd place horse was faster in the final stretch. There is no finish line and recently, Disney has said that they are "okay" with attendance declines so what does the future hold? What business wouldn't want to see that sort of improvement vs its competition? It shows that your investments are working.

The biggest thing Universal has gained is not raw attendance, it's the perception of their parks being an "equivalent experience," or at least they've gotten to the point where legitimate discussion can be had, and everyone isn't going to just bust out laughing. Disney fans hope that the war will be won by 2020 when Star Wars opens, but given the different construction timelines, we haven't even SEEN the cards Comcast/Universal is holding. Exciting times (in a good way for a change)!

He tracks Universal, I don't.

 

[GhostHost1000]

construction

One of Disney's biggest problems

 

[donsullivan]

2015 Orlando Market Share Update:

MK + EPCOT + AK + DHS = 54,040,000

USF + IOA = 18,377,000

SeaWorld = 4,777,000

Total = 77,194,000

Disney Market Share = 70.0%(-0.9% from last year)

Universal Market Share = 23.8%(+1.2% from last year)

SeaWorld Market Share = 6.2%(-0.3% from last year)

It's important to look at market share trends like this over the longer arc of time and not short slices which do not tell the whole story. If you look at the below that I posted on the first page of the thread you can see that UO has a long upside down bell of market share over the last 12 years. Back in 2003 they were at 22.98% share and have been below that number for every year since until 2015 which is the first year they exceeded the share they had back in 2003. They are now back to par where they were 12 years ago and Disney is 3 points above where they were at the same time. There is no doubt they are on an upward trend but it comes from a very low bottom in 2009. Market share should definitely be measured as a long term measure of performance, not just slicing from one year to the next.

 

[rushtest4echo]

You wanna look at the 10 year trend, the 15 year trend or the 20 year trend?

We look at the big picture, not cherry picking things to support our conclusions....

Excellent idea!
2000: Pre 9/11 economy, both opened new parks with a couple years of 2000
MK attendance in 2000: 15.4 million
EPCOT attendance in 2000: 10.6 million
DHS attendance in 2000: 8.9 million
AK attendance in 2000: 8.3 million
Uni Orlando attendance in 2000: 8.1 million
IOA attendance in 2000: 6 million

2005: Collapsing tourism industry, heavy cutbacks and declines everywhere
MK attendance in 2005: 16.1 million (+700,000 over 5 yrs)
EPCOT attendance in 2005: 9.9 million (-700,000 over 5 years)
DHS attendance in 2005: 8.6 million (-300,000 over 5 years)
AK attendance in 2005: 8.2 million (-100,000 over 5 years)
Uni Orlando attendance in 2005: 6.1 million (-2,000,000 over 5 years)
IOA attendance in 2005: 5.7 million (-300,000 over 5 years)
Total WDW net over 5 Years: -400,000
Total Universal net over 5 years: -2,300,000

2010: Recovering economy and tourism indusry
MK attendance in 2010: 17 million (+1,400,000 over 10 years)
EPCOT attendance in 2010: 10.8 million (+200,000 over 10 years)
DHS attendance in 2010: 9.6 million (+700,000 over 10 years)
AK attendance in 2010: 9.7 million (+1,400,000 over 10 years)
Uni Orlando attendance in 2010: 5.9 million (-2,200,000 over 10 years)
IOA attendance in 2010: 6 million (+0 over 10 years)
Total WDW net over 10 Years: +3,700,000
Total Universal net over 10 years: -2,200,000

2015: Booming tourism offset by poor economic growth
MK attendance in 2010: 20.4 million (+5,000,000 over 15 years)
EPCOT attendance in 2010: 11.8 million (+1,200,000 over 15 years)
DHS attendance in 2010: 10.8 million (+1,900,000 over 15 years)
AK attendance in 2010: 10.8 million (+1,500,000 over 15 years)
Uni Orlando attendance in 2010: 9.8 million (+1,700,000 over 15 years)
IOA attendance in 2010: 8.6 million (+2,600,000 over 15 years)
Total WDW net over EDIT 15 Years: +9,600,000 or 2,300,000/park
Total Universal net over 15 years: +4,300,000 pr 2,150,000/park

Universal has (thankfully) gained back the gargantuan losses of the early 2000's. People tend to forget that their attendance declined over 25% during that period, yet WDW's attendance was steady (falling 1%). But the hard numbers are that Universal is now back to the position that they were in at the start of the new millennium- they can match WDW's rate of growth (in guests, not silly percentages) on a per park basis by dumping billions into their parks while WDW "does nothing". And matching WDW's growth in guests doesn't mean that Universal is outpacing WDW, quite the contrary actually. It's much harder to bring in guests to a mature and saturated property like WDW as opposed to a rapidly expanding one like Universal.

Again, not trying to say I applaud Disney's methods, but in all honesty they're growing at the same rate as Universal if you want to look at things short or long term. It's much easier to conclude that a park with 6 million annual attendance has skyrocketing attendance when it's up 15%, compared to park next door that's pulling 18 million and has 5% growth. In the end though, the numbers are the same in terms of actual guests through the turnstiles.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Again, not trying to say I applaud Disney's methods, but in all honesty they're growing at the same rate as Universal if you want to look at things short or long term. It's much easier to conclude that a park with 6 million annual attendance has skyrocketing attendance when it's up 15%, compared to park next door that's pulling 18 million and has 5% growth. In the end though, the numbers are the same in terms of actual guests through the turnstiles.

No, you're just looking to get blocked.

 

[PhotoDave219]

It's important to look at market share trends like this over the longer arc of time and not short slices which do not tell the whole story. If you look at the below that I posted on the first page of the thread you can see that UO has a long upside down bell of market share over the last 12 years. Back in 2003 they were at 22.98% share and have been below that number for every year since until 2015 which is the first year they exceeded the share they had back in 2003. They are now back to par where they were 12 years ago and Disney is 3 points above where they were at the same time. There is no doubt they are on an upward trend but it comes from a very low bottom in 2009. Market share should definitely be measured as a long term measure of performance, not just slicing from one year to the next.

View attachment 143514

So essentially Universal is back to the pre-Blackstone levels?

 

[donsullivan]

So essentially Universal is back to the pre-Blackstone levels?

I didn't want to go there but yeah, one might think of it that way..

 

[disneyflush]

Excellent idea!
2000: Pre 9/11 economy, both opened new parks with a couple years of 2000
MK attendance in 2000: 15.4 million
EPCOT attendance in 2000: 10.6 million
DHS attendance in 2000: 8.9 million
AK attendance in 2000: 8.3 million
Uni Orlando attendance in 2000: 8.1 million
IOA attendance in 2000: 6 million

2005: Collapsing tourism industry, heavy cutbacks and declines everywhere
MK attendance in 2005: 16.1 million (+700,000 over 5 yrs)
EPCOT attendance in 2005: 9.9 million (-700,000 over 5 years)
DHS attendance in 2005: 8.6 million (-300,000 over 5 years)
AK attendance in 2005: 8.2 million (-100,000 over 5 years)
Uni Orlando attendance in 2005: 6.1 million (-2,000,000 over 5 years)
IOA attendance in 2005: 5.7 million (-300,000 over 5 years)
Total WDW net over 5 Years: -400,000
Total Universal net over 5 years: -2,300,000

2010: Recovering economy and tourism indusry
MK attendance in 2010: 17 million (+1,400,000 over 10 years)
EPCOT attendance in 2010: 10.8 million (+200,000 over 10 years)
DHS attendance in 2010: 9.6 million (+700,000 over 10 years)
AK attendance in 2010: 9.7 million (+1,400,000 over 10 years)
Uni Orlando attendance in 2010: 5.9 million (-2,200,000 over 10 years)
IOA attendance in 2010: 6 million (+0 over 10 years)
Total WDW net over 10 Years: +3,700,000
Total Universal net over 10 years: -2,200,000

2015: Booming tourism offset by poor economic growth
MK attendance in 2010: 20.4 million (+5,000,000 over 15 years)
EPCOT attendance in 2010: 11.8 million (+1,200,000 over 15 years)
DHS attendance in 2010: 10.8 million (+1,900,000 over 15 years)
AK attendance in 2010: 10.8 million (+1,500,000 over 15 years)
Uni Orlando attendance in 2010: 9.8 million (+1,700,000 over 15 years)
IOA attendance in 2010: 8.6 million (+2,600,000 over 15 years)
Total WDW net over 10 Years: +9,600,000 or 2,300,000/park
Total Universal net over 10 years: +4,300,000 pr 2,150,000/park

Universal has (thankfully) gained back the gargantuan losses of the early 2000's. People tend to forget that their attendance declined over 25% during that period, yet WDW's attendance was steady (falling 1%). But the hard numbers are that Universal is now back to the position that they were in at the start of the new millennium- they can match WDW's rate of growth (in guests, not silly percentages) on a per park basis by dumping billions into their parks while WDW "does nothing". And matching WDW's growth in guests doesn't mean that Universal is outpacing WDW, quite the contrary actually. It's much harder to bring in guests to a mature and saturated property like WDW as opposed to a rapidly expanding one like Universal.

Again, not trying to say I applaud Disney's methods, but in all honesty they're growing at the same rate as Universal if you want to look at things short or long term. It's much easier to conclude that a park with 6 million annual attendance has skyrocketing attendance when it's up 15%, compared to park next door that's pulling 18 million and has 5% growth. In the end though, the numbers are the same in terms of actual guests through the turnstiles.

How much time did you spend constructing your first 2 posts on these forums? Kind of an interesting posting style for someone that didn't have anything to say for 5 months. But to each their own and thank you for contributing to the discussion at least.

 

[Nubs70]

I am in several industries that tend to see the trend prior to the rest of the country and I will say I am very very scared that we are going to hit another slow down. Customers of mine in the one industry have held off on new projects and releasing orders until after the election and these are fortune 500 companies.

Orders for coated box board are getting soft, but not to the degree 6 months prior to the implosion of 2007.

 

[maxairmike]

Surprised no one has mentioned that the number from TEA/AECOM for Knott's is laughably inconsistent with what Ouimet has stated. I also know that they've been decently off on other parks before as well. The number for DHS has me scratching my head.

 

[Pirate665]

It has to be said, as always, Disney does not provide attendance numbers. It makes me question how the report is compiled.

Actually TWDC is a member of TEA and provides the numbers. It's part of membership. Not only that, but many of Disney's divisions are also members of TEA.

Wether how accurte they are are up to the member being honest.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Actually TWDC is a member of TEA and provides the numbers. It's part of membership. Not only that, but many of Disney's divisions are also members of TEA.

Wether how accurte they are are up to the member being honest.

The TEA does not do the counting and providing numbers are not a requirement of membership. AECOM does lots of work for many companies so none of the operators would be okay with giving up that information as a condition of membership.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I didn't want to go there but yeah, one might think of it that way..

Its fair.

Think of what Universal could be if they suddenly didnt become all about the numbers and squeezing every last dollar out of their audience for many years. I'd like to think that they would be right around Epcot levels.

And for all the Universal haters.... Competition is good. The mouse needs to be pushed as they're getting lazy and all about the revenue.

 

[AEfx]

The biggest thing Universal has gained is not raw attendance, it's the perception of their parks being an "equivalent experience," or at least they've gotten to the point where legitimate discussion can be had, and everyone isn't going to just bust out laughing. Disney fans hope that the war will be won by 2020 when Star Wars opens, but given the different construction timelines, we haven't even SEEN the cards Comcast/Universal is holding. Exciting times (in a good way for a change)!

Ding ding ding...

I wish more of the newbies (who tend to be snorting the most pixie dust) understood just how profound this change has been. I just don't think they comprehend it. The numbers are just backing up what anyone who has watched the 2010's transform Orlando in ways that were absolutely unspeakable just a few years before already knew. If someone even suggested that it would ever be possible that anyone in the public would ever see the Universal parks as anywhere near "Disney quality" even five years ago folks would have torn them to shreds (or at the least send you to the asylum because it would have been such crazy talk).

But they did it - and changed the entire paradigm in Orlando while completely proving the "market is saturated" myth for what it was - an invention by Disney after the opening of AK to explain away the park's identity crisis with the public and why it didn't increase attendance at WDW. Disney is finally appearing to play ball with Avatar and Star Wars, but given that Universal has been on such a trajectory and shows no signs of slowing (one can only guess what they will have open by 2017-2020 when all the development at WDW finally bears fruit)...it ain't over yet, even with the power of Star Wars.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Actually TWDC is a member of TEA and provides the numbers. It's part of membership. Not only that, but many of Disney's divisions are also members of TEA.

Wether how accurte they are are up to the member being honest.

....... as is Universal Studios Hollywood, Universal Creative, SeaWorld Parks and Entertainment, Merlin Entertainment, 20th Century Fox, Warner Brothers (but not the Warner Sister), the Orlando Sentinel, and 1200 other companies. 92 members in Orlando alone.

http://www.teaconnect.org/Members/Member-Directory/

There's a Mixer tomorrow night in Orlando at Bar Louie.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The following tables compares the percent change in combined WDW/DLR attendance reported by TEA with the domestic theme park percent change actually reported by Disney, both for the fiscal year (which ends in late September) and calendar year.

Note that Disney only reports to the nearest percent.

 

[bork]

I have numbers back to 1994 from the various predecessors to TEA. It's interesting to note the cannibalization that AK (1998) and IOA(1999) had on the other parks. All parks had record years in 1997 and then dropped as the new parks cannibalized them. MK returned to it's previous high by 2007, but Epcot, DHS and USF didn't return to their previous levels until 2015.

So you can see why Disney hasn't had any desire to build the 5th gate. It will be interesting to see how new Universal parks affect the attendance' distribution.

Increase from 1997 to 2015
MK 21%
Epcot 0%
DHS 4%
WDW 38%

USF 8%
Universal resort 100%

 

[cheezbat]

I think the most telling thing about this is just how high Universals parks numbers have increased. USF is only about 1 million guests from finally reaching a WDW park...and if my visits to both resorts over the past three months have shown me anything, 3 of the 4 WDW parks will be down this year, but IOA and USF may be pretty close to even or even another increase this year. Magic Kingdom is the one park that continues to pack them in.

 

[BrianLo]

Tokyo saw a decrease which I found weird.

OLC actually reports their numbers, so those are accurate.

They had a massive increase in attendance from their 30th (which caught them off guard and surprisingly was pretty sustained for several years). The decrease has been forecasted for a while, but even still they are pretty surprised their long term attendance goal was met and they've really added very little in terms of capacity in the last 7 years to deserve it.

WDW really doesn't deserve it, obviously

 

[PhotoDave219]

The following tables compares the percent change in combined WDW/DLR attendance reported by TEA with the domestic theme park percent change actually reported by Disney, both for the fiscal year (which ends in late September) and calendar year.

View attachment 143552

Note that Disney only reports to the nearest percent.

Looks like its very similar to what TEA is reporting. I'm fine with TEA's numbers.