Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

The heat has been oppressive and the violent T-storm activity rampant over the entire eastern US…which accounts for like 2/3 of the population?
Movies should benefit from that…to be honest

Ahhh…. The 90 + degree weather we have had this summer… I would rather be inside a movie theater….

Oh, dear. How quickly I forget my years back East! Summer can be brutal there, certainly. Boston was bad, even though it was less humid/hot than the few years I was in the South, because you were still fighting Boston traffic and city life. But my absolute least favorite gig was the two years I spent in Houston (Baytown, precisely, for a hugely lucrative contract we had with Chevron so I wasn't supposed to complain). That. Was. Awful!

But, on the flip side, because the eastern half of the nation has been having a heat wave, the western half of the nation has mostly been running 4 to 10 degrees below normal this summer, as seen here in the blues and greens west of the Rockies. It's been like this since late June, west of Denver.

Here at the beach, the thermometer on my patio never cracked 70 degrees all weekend long. Sweaters and wraps were a must after sundown. Although it's finally going to get above 70 for a few days later this week.

The good news?!?.... These sorts of mid-term weather trends almost always move west to east. So while the western half of the nation may be having a cooler than average June/July, I'd bet two churros that moves east and you guys will have a pleasant August. And then in September, California will blaze hot and spike over 100 like it always does.

That weather swap for August will give you guys a perfect excuse why you can't go see Fantastic Four and Freakier Friday, while us Westerners won't have that luxury in August and September.

 

[TP2000]

For those of you sheltering in place in movie theaters this hot summer weekend, here's what your contribution to box office looks like from a numbers perspective.

The classic tale of American immigration, Superman, dropped a solid 54% in its second weekend. With weak overseas box office that is less than its domestic haul, it's going to be one to watch to see if it can break even by Labor Day.

Elio and Lilo & Stitch kept doing their things in different ways, but at least they are both consistent.

And now, onward to The Fantastic Four!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for September 5, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of September 5, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m surprised stitch’s final tally is going to be close to 60% overseas. It was weak there to start

Sets them up for a big haul on the sequel(s)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There’s still hope Disney course corrects and reshapes (yet again) this Tiana D+ series for a theatrical release with flourishes of hand-drawn animation!

The little secret nobody wants to accept is the first one didn’t really do that well.

It is what it is…and that’s it

 

[Tha Realest]

The little secret nobody wants to accept is the first one didn’t really do that well.

It is what it is…and that’s it

It’s not a secret. It’s a known fact that people did contortions around to boost it’s supposed popularity.

 

[Disney Irish]

The little secret nobody wants to accept is the first one didn’t really do that well.

It is what it is…and that’s it

It’s not a secret. It’s a known fact that people did contortions around to boost it’s supposed popularity.

No one doubts its slightly better than break even box office in 2009, but it has gained in popularity steadily since then.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s not a secret. It’s a known fact that people did contortions around to boost it’s supposed popularity.

Don’t blow my cover, bro…trying to keep that on the down low

 

[BrianLo]

From the horses mouth. I know there’s been conspiracies about the recent MCU budgets, but it seems to be valid.

“In building a better mousetrap at Marvel, Feige says the studio has scaled down their production costs greatly. They took notice of the VFX spectacle that Gareth Edwards made with The Creator, which was shot in Thailand, and met with that pic’s below-the-line heads to learn how they pulled off such efficiency. Also, Marvel was pushed to scrutinize their budgets more coming out of the pandemic, which required increased safety protocols.

“The movies made over the last two years have been upwards of a third cheaper than they were two years before that, i.e. Deadpool & Wolverine, Captain America, Thunderbolts* and Fantastic Four are all significantly cheaper than films from 2022 and 2023, and they would have been even cheaper if it wasn’t for the strikes,” he explains.”

Also generally an interesting interview.

Kevin Feige On Fixing Superhero Fatigue & How James Gunn Gave Marvel Props For ‘Superman’

Marvel boss Kevin Feige talks about DC's success with 'Superman' and what the cure is for superhero fatigue.

deadline.com

 

[BrianLo]

Jurassic Park added 115.3M this week to 648M implying 878.6M. A larger drop off from last weeks totals and I’ll now confidently say I also think 1B is off the table. Probably totaling more like 800-850 given the retrenchment, though I’ll see if week four stabilizes.

Superman did 187M to 407M implying 781M. Even if that slips, which week three seems to always have a slip (plus F4 comp), 700M is a great run for that movie.

 

[TP2000]

The little secret nobody wants to accept is the first one didn’t really do that well.

It is what it is…and that’s it

Such a shame, because The Princess & The Frog had one of the best pieces of park entertainment attached to it of all time. Right up there with The Lion King Parade. Tiana's Showboat Jubilee promenading on the banks of New Orleans Square and then boarding the Mark Twain for a riverboat.... well, jubilee, was pure Disneyland charm and toe-tapping goodness.

That Disneyland show may have been better than the actual movie, but the show stood on its own as park excellence.

Such a shame that the log ride remake turned out to be a steaming pile of broken-down crap. I had high hopes for it.

No one doubts its slightly better than break even box office in 2009, but it has gained in popularity steadily since then.

I've still never seen a Princess Tiana on my doorstep on Halloween. Have you?

What does "gained in popularity steadily since then" mean exactly? Going from 0.4% of 7 year old girls interested in her, to 0.6% of 7 year old girls interested in her?

I'm surprised the jodhpur wearing version didn't get the 7 year old girls excited to be her. What little girl in America doesn't love form-hiding and hard-wearing unisex Princess wear that can take you from a swamp to an employee-owned cooperative?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

From the horses mouth. I know there’s been conspiracies about the recent MCU budgets, but it seems to be valid.



Also generally an interesting interview.

Kevin Feige On Fixing Superhero Fatigue & How James Gunn Gave Marvel Props For ‘Superman’

Marvel boss Kevin Feige talks about DC's success with 'Superman' and what the cure is for superhero fatigue.

deadline.com

Lower budget + bad ideas + cheaper actors appears to be a real “winner” angle

A lot to ask after you make 20 or so movies over 15 years…one would think?

 

[Disney Irish]

Such a shame, because The Princess & The Frog had one of the best pieces of park entertainment attached to it of all time. Right up there with The Lion King Parade. Tiana's Showboat Jubilee promenading on the banks of New Orleans Square and then boarding the Mark Twain for a riverboat.... well, jubilee, was pure Disneyland charm and toe-tapping goodness.

That Disneyland show may have been better than the actual movie, but the show stood on its own as park excellence.

Such a shame that the log ride remake turned out to be a steaming pile of broken-down crap. I had high hopes for it.



I've still never seen a Princess Tiana on my doorstep on Halloween. Have you?

What does "gained in popularity steadily since then" mean exactly? Going from 0.4% of 7 year old girls interested in her, to 0.6% of 7 year old girls interested in her?

I'm surprised the jodhpur wearing version didn't get the 7 year old girls excited to be her. What little girl in America doesn't love form-hiding and hard-wearing unisex Princess wear that can take you from a swamp to an employee-owned cooperative?

Unlike you I don’t buy into the Halloween costume metric theory that you trot out every few months as some proof of popularity. You famously incorrectly claimed that Avatar wasn’t popular because of the same silly wildly wrong costume theory saying you never saw a blue alien show up at your door, and look how that turned out when Avatar 2 was released. So maybe just maybe your costume metric should be retired permanently. As I bet you still won’t see a blue alien this Halloween either and Avatar 3 will still be popular.

But you know what I did see, lots of girls wearing Tiana merch at Disneyland this weekend when I was there.

 

[erasure fan1]

You famously incorrectly claimed that Avatar wasn’t popular because of the same silly wildly wrong costume theory saying you never saw a blue alien show up at your door, and look how that turned out when Avatar 2 was released.

Avatar is really a thing on its own though. There's no denying it's probably the biggest franchise that has left almost no pop culture impact. So while the "costume theory" doesn't really hold up with Avatar. I think it is one spoke in the what's popular wheel. Obviously it's nothing scientific, but I do see some correlation in my opinion.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Avatar is really a thing on its own though. There's no denying it's probably the biggest franchise that has left almost no pop culture impact. So while the "costume theory" doesn't really hold up with Avatar. I think it is one spoke in the what's popular wheel. Obviously it's nothing scientific, but I do see some correlation in my opinion.

James Cameron’s reputation for “spectacle” put avatar on its own plane that seems to sustain it…even though it generates near zero attachment to the stories and the characters, etc.

It is a unique study

 

[Disney Irish]

Avatar is really a thing on its own though. There's no denying it's probably the biggest franchise that has left almost no pop culture impact. So while the "costume theory" doesn't really hold up with Avatar. I think it is one spoke in the what's popular wheel. Obviously it's nothing scientific, but I do see some correlation in my opinion.

Ok, video games have arguably more pop culture impact now than movies. How many Steve's were there before the Minecraft movie? Probably almost none but it was arguably the most pop culture "it" thing of the last decade, and yet no representation? Yeah, not looking good. And after the movie? I'm betting maybe a couple last year, and few more this year, but you probably won't see thousands of Steve's, or the chicken jockey, or any other character from the movie running around. You'll see the normal smattering of princesses, some unique joke costumes, and the normal action based ones.

Same goes for many other movies that are in the "pop culture", they won't get the Halloween costume that some think is this metric for the "it" thing right now. Its an outdated metric if it ever was one, and I sort of doubt it ever really was one. Just like the toy metric, these things had their time but society has moved on from them and don't buy toys in bulk like they used to.

 

[DKampy]

Avatar is really a thing on its own though. There's no denying it's probably the biggest franchise that has left almost no pop culture impact. So while the "costume theory" doesn't really hold up with Avatar. I think it is one spoke in the what's popular wheel. Obviously it's nothing scientific, but I do see some correlation in my

I can’t wait to see all those Final Destination costumes this year

 

[Disney Irish]

I can’t wait to see all those Final Destination costumes this year

Or that classic Ethan Hunt costume....

 

[Phroobar]

I can’t wait to see all those Final Destination costumes this year

or Elio.

 

[DKampy]

Or that classic Ethan Hunt costume....

Also I don’t know if Halloween Costumes was ever a tell tale sign of popularity of a franchise…. I don’t recall seeing a ton of Marty McFly costumes in the 80’s

 

[erasure fan1]

Ok, video games have arguably more pop culture impact now than movies. How many Steve's were there before the Minecraft movie? Probably almost none but it was arguably the most pop culture

Oh my God, you don't pay attention to it do you? Minecraft Steve has been a staple of Halloween costumes by us since a couple years after the game came out. Personally I didn't think Minecraft was going to be as big as it was. UNTIL there were Steves all over the place at my son's Halloween parade. That's when I said this could be big. It was every grade, at least two or so kids in most classes. Minecraft is great example for the "theory" not an argument against it.

I can’t wait to see all those Final Destination costumes this year

Is there a character in that franchise that is recognizable? After scream, that scream mask was very common till this day. Keep in mind as I've said, it's a spoke in the wheel, not some 100% formula. Just like box office predictions.