Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

When you really look around, and if you're being honest. It's pretty clear that Avatar is what it is, and I'm not sure why that's so controversial. Why can't Avatar be a series that people watch because it's nice eye candy, and something people want to see for the spectacle? When the great majority of people you interact with all have the basic philosophy on a film. Then you look around and see that same sentiment all over the place, there's a good chance it's probably more right than not. It's not 100%, I've never said otherwise.

It's Avatar, the highest grossing movie ever. All you are really arguing is I'm correct. It sounds like you two really love Avatar and that's great. It really is ok. Avatar made bank at the theater and didn't do a whole lot in the pop culture space. Is it really that insulting to the film to say?

The point was that it went beyond just being the highest grossing movie of all time. It clearly had a larger impact as how could it not, much of which was discounted by many here, especially prior to the second one releasing and in discussions about the second land opening in DCA.

As for me, other than being something I saw and will watch the sequels, I don't have much love for the franchise as a whole. So I have no "dog in this fight" as it were. I'm just a neutral observer to this calling the reality of the landscape, and calling out those that like to downplay it.

 

[Disney Irish]

Speaking of Avatar, posters for the 3rd just got released and posted over in the Avatar thread -

Trailers will be released exclusively with Fantastic Four this week.

 

[erasure fan1]

You do it again by claiming "no one loved" the films.

Not true. What I said is, no one I know. And when you really look around, I don't see a lot of, I love the film. That doesn't mean no one loves it. Even you and Irish won't say it, the ones defending it. It has parts I hear people say they love. Like the visuals, special effects, things like that.

A movie doesn't do Avatar business without positive word of mouth and repeat viewers.

Absolutely. But that's not the argument now is it. In my opinion, the word of mouth on its visuals and revolutionary 3d single handedly made that movie. It's probably to blame for the all in 3d craze that happened.

Is the lack of merchandise cited because it's a sci-fi move or something? If a movie is in the same genre as Star Wars is that more of an expectation or something?

It's not just merch in my opinion. I go to comic-cons, toy shows, all sorts of nerd stuff. And its not really on the radar. Couple that with merch, Halloween, video games, people walking around... On the whole, people just don't seem to care. Obviously they care enough to go see it, but not enough to nerd out about it. And there's nothing wrong with that. Last year I saw a guy wearing a Pandora, world of avatar shirt. That's the first Avatar thing I've seen in the wild.

I'd argue that Disneys Pandora land has done more for Avatar pop culture than anything yet. Heck I was the guy defending the choice for the land.

Avatar had enough of an impact that people came out in droves for the sequel. Allegedly despite not even liking the original.

Did you see the trailers? The water sequences made little mermaid live action look like my 7yr old made it. I wanted to see it just for that. And then that kid ran around for like 3hrs yelling bro! Lol. Again, my point isn't, everyone hates it!!!! It's about the pop culture legacy (that's different than it's legacy as a film). I just don't see anything of note. That doesn't mean there's none, or the movies trash and everyone hates it.

 

[Tha Realest]

Also, The Fantastic Four and its little robot guy will be doing meet and greets in Tomorrowland at Disneyland. And because it's Disneyland and the LA entertainment economy has tanked and there are a lot of out of work actors around, the face characters actually look really good. (I still remember the "Aladdin" that WDW once had in their Adventureland who looked and sounded like a stocky Italian guy from the Jersey shore )

Burbank ignored Snow White and Elio in the parks this past spring and early summer, but now they're going all in on The Fantastic Four.

I'd love to know how they knew that Elio and Snow White were going to bomb, but are feeling better about The Fantastic Four?

Two trades - Deadline and THR - are projecting $100M-$110M. Whether this is based on realistic projections, or downplayed expectations so it looks like it overperforms when it opens, is anyone’s guess.

 

[Disney Irish]

Two trades - Deadline and THR - are projecting $100M-$110M. Whether this is based on realistic projections, or downplayed expectations so it looks like it overperforms when it opens, is anyone’s guess.

Boxofficepro has it $100M-$125M as of last week -

Long Range Forecast: THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS Looks to $100M-Plus Opening

Subscribe to our FREE email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news. Long Range Forecast — July 25, 2025 The Fantastic Four: First Steps | Disney Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $100M – $125M The Marvel Cinematic Universe...

www.boxofficepro.com

So I think there is a wide range, but all seem to have it opening higher then $100M which is good as that would be one of the higher openings recently.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'd love to know how they knew that Elio and Snow White were going to bomb, but are feeling better about The Fantastic Four?

Presales have been good for F4, which is why the prediction is higher than other recent Disney movies.

 

[BrianLo]

Avatar is really a thing on its own though. There's no denying it's probably the biggest franchise that has left almost no pop culture impact. So while the "costume theory" doesn't really hold up with Avatar. I think it is one spoke in the what's popular wheel. Obviously it's nothing scientific, but I do see some correlation in my opinion.

As you say, pop culture as opposed to cultural impact. Its audience is extremely atypical from internet (pop culture) norms. More like a Yellowstone audience domestically. It just doesn’t translate well out of the baby boomer circles. But like Yellowstone I think it has more impact than it is given credit for.

The land really, really outperformed.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

As you say, pop culture as opposed to cultural impact. Its audience is extremely atypical from internet (pop culture) norms. More like a Yellowstone audience domestically. It just doesn’t translate well out of the baby boomer circles. But like Yellowstone I think it has more impact than it is given credit for.

The land really, really outperformed.

I saw a chart of the top 20 streaming shows in 2025 thus far (when it comes to viewership) and the list is an eye opener for what the average North American audience actually watches.

 

[Andrew C]

I saw a chart of the top 20 streaming shows in 2025 thus far (when it comes to viewership) and the list is an eye opener for what the average North American audience actually watches.

View attachment 872224

Bluey. Helz yeah!

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Bluey. Helz yeah!

Disney spending billions on new Marvel and Star Wars shows when Bluey and Moana are paying the bills.

 

[Disney Irish]

I saw a chart of the top 20 streaming shows in 2025 thus far (when it comes to viewership) and the list is an eye opener for what the average North American audience actually watches.

View attachment 872224

Funny how 7 of the top 10 are either directly Disney or Disney adjacent.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Also, Family Guy, South Park, Bob's Burgers, American Dad on the list...but not Simpsons

 

[Andrew C]

There’s a lot of old shows. Surprised but not surprised.

 

[Disney Irish]

There’s a lot of old shows. Surprised but not surprised.

Background shows.

 

[Andrew C]

Background shows.

Gunsmoke ain’t a background show.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

There’s a lot of old shows. Surprised but not surprised.

People like their familiar comfort watches. For sure that's true of Friends, Big Bang Theory and Supernatural.

...and Gunsmoke I guess?

 

[Disney Irish]

Gunsmoke ain’t a background show.

You'd be surprised. Because who in 2025 is just now discovering Gunsmoke and saying "Hey let me find out who this Marshal Matt Dillon is that everyone has been talking about for the last 70 years".

Its a background show just like Friends, or any of the other shows that have been off the air for years.

 

[brideck]

You'd be surprised. Because who in 2025 is just now discovering Gunsmoke and saying "Hey let me find out who this Marshal Matt Dillon is that everyone has been talking about for the last 70 years".

Its a background show just like Friends, or any of the other shows that have been off the air for years.

Or it's retirees like my dad who are actually sitting around and watching stuff like Gunsmoke on the regular. Not background for them (unless you count alternating between actively watching and napping as being on in the background), although I am a little surprised that one of the modern contributions to the genre, like Yellowstone, isn't on the list instead.

 

[Disney Irish]

Or it's retirees like my dad who are actually sitting around and watching stuff like Gunsmoke on the regular. Not background for them (unless you count alternating between actively watching and napping as being on in the background), although I am a little surprised that one of the modern contributions to the genre, like Yellowstone, isn't on the list instead.

That would be a lot of retirees in order to watch ~11B (that is Billion with a B) minutes of Gunsmoke in 6 months. So is that like the whole state of Florida staying indoors watching Gunsmoke and nothing else?

Sorry you’re not going to be able to convince me this isn’t anything but a background playing of a 70 year old show.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Weekend actuals finally in:

Superman held better than expected. A 53.2% drop to bring its total to $236.2 million domestically, $409 million worldwide. $236 million in 10 days is comparable to The Batman, $239 million in the same time frame.

Lilo and Stitch now less than $6 million to becoming highest grossing domestic release of 2025

How to Train Your Dragon did hit $250 million domestically and is very close to $600 million worldwide. You can watch it at home, but some people are still going to a theater to see it.

F1 continues to play well. Just a 24.4% drop from the previous weekend. Rotten Tomatoes has adjusted their estimate for the film's final gross as a result, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go higher. It's approx $154 million gross to date is nearing 3x its opening weekend and its been in theaters less than a month.

Mission Impossible continues to limp to $200 million. I think Paramount will try and increase its theater count, or do some kind of final push later in the summer to squeeze out an extra couple of million.

Elio may have flopped, but a lot more people will have seen it in a movie than this year's Smurfs movie.