Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

Nah.

I think it ends with $750-$800M WW.

We’ll see. But it made 210M last week. If it holds halfway decently it’s practically in your range in 10-14 days.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have JP tracking to 950. I want another week or two before I would confidently rule it out.

Mmmm…asking a lot it seems

We’ll see. But it made 210M last week. If it holds halfway decently it’s practically in your range in 10-14 days.

But it’s at the 3 week “wall” this week. I know we try to deny that exists around here…but it holds more often than not

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And that $1.01 for little stitch does look pretty cool. It’s having a good month considering the length since release.

So is dragon…showing the strength of “family” offerings over the boom, pop, bangers

 

[BrianLo]

Mmmm…asking a lot it seems

But it’s at the 3 week “wall” this week. I know we try to deny that exists around here…but it holds more often than not

I think that’s what I’ve tried to establish. That’s simply not a thing. When movies are still making 9 figures at 3 weeks, there are more 9 figures to go.

What I do think is that we can pretty accurately gauge the endpoint at 3 weeks, but it’s not empirically a cliff.

You were onside Stitch, but offside Moana 2 and they both ultimately played out the same.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think that’s what I’ve tried to establish. That’s simply not a thing. When movies are still making 9 figures at 3 weeks, there are more 9 figures to go.

What I do think is that we can pretty accurately gauge the endpoint at 3 weeks, but it’s not empirically a cliff.

You were onside Stitch, but offside Moana 2 and they both ultimately played out the same.

So not a fan of the law of diminishing returns?

Nothing is really absolute. But I think it may be more an issue of “category” than anything else.

Family movies seem more suitable for legs and that makes total sense. Most of the targeted demo isn’t driving to the theater or paying…so there’s no rush on the part of their “handlers” lb for lb to load opening weeks. And they like repetition.

Not really so for the big action and comic book tentpoles. If you don’t get $400 mil in your first week…I bet the numbers say you have issues.

Not absolute. Certainly not everything falls in the plot line…but on the whole it’s a measuring stick.

The other thing is this Jurassic movie appears to be “meh” city. Which a movie with legs like Maverick was not. Recieved so much better.


I’m more interested in what Superman does and how marvels next crack goes?

I think one is “arrow up” and the other is “down”…with no data to back it up

 

[LSLS]

So with Stitch hitting $1B, could Disney really be the only studio that'll have $1B+ movie this year (and multiple ones)?

I know we posed this question before, but its now really coming into focus. Stitch, Avatar 3 for sure, and maybe Zootopia?

This is certainly a strange year, one that still looks to me to come under 2024 when the year end totals come in and certainly under 2023 totals (for reference 2024 also came in under 2023).

Definitely possible. Does Downton Abbey have the following? I know that was a huge show for a while, but I never watched nor was I in the group that did so I don't know how big that really was/still is. I think the one that really could give the push would be Wicked part 2 if Superman and Jurassic Park aren't getting there.

 

[Nevermore525]

Definitely possible. Does Downton Abbey have the following? I know that was a huge show for a while, but I never watched nor was I in the group that did so I don't know how big that really was/still is. I think the one that really could give the push would be Wicked part 2 if Superman and Jurassic Park aren't getting there.

Wicked only has so much potential because outside of US/Canada/UK regions it really isn’t a draw. That and the second act just doesn’t hit as well even among fans of the show vs the first.

 

[DKampy]

I think the one that really could give the push would be Wicked part 2

Wicked for Good is not getting there… the first Wicked grossed 786…. The domestic made over double what the international numbers did.., it seems much like Superman the rest of the world is not here for Wicked

 

[Andrew C]

From your inaccurate point of view.

It looks like it could be Luca, Elio, or Turning Red....

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

It looks like it could be Luca, Elio, or Turning Red....

All of which were good movies.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Only billions this year are gonna be stitch and avatar…

The only other one with a realistic shot MAY be zootopia?

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Only billions this year are gonna be stitch and avatar…

The only other one with a realistic shot MAY be zootopia?

The Fantastic Four has a 50/50 chance of it if it’s as strong as it’s now been claimed by 4 inside sources already.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The Fantastic Four has a 50/50 chance of it if it’s as strong as it’s now been claimed by 4 inside sources already.

Nope…

But let’s let it play

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Now, interestingly, much like how #Moana2 was going to be a Disney+ series before eventually being re-routed to a theatrical release, the live-action #LiloAndStitch was going to be a Disney+ Original Movie before eventually being re-routed to a theatrical release and now that means we’ve got 2 for 2 in terms of Disney making a billion each on their two films after they almost ended up being Disney+ releases.

So, that leads me to the ultimate question. Will Disney be 3 for 3 w/ this business strategy when Star Wars: The Mandalorian And Grogu arrives only in theaters during Memorial Day Weekend 2026, especially now that it has a chance to do better business with Avengers: Doomsday delayed to a week before Christmas Day 2026?

We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Now, interestingly, much like how #Moana2 was going to be a Disney+ series before eventually being re-routed to a theatrical release, the live-action #LiloAndStitch was going to be a Disney+ Original Movie before eventually being re-routed to a theatrical release and now that means we’ve got 2 for 2 in terms of Disney making a billion each on their two films after they almost ended up being Disney+ releases.

So, that leads me to the ultimate question. Will Disney be 3 for 3 w/ this business strategy when Star Wars: The Mandalorian And Grogu arrives only in theaters during Memorial Day Weekend 2026, especially now that it has a chance to do better business with Avengers: Doomsday delayed to a week before Christmas Day 2026?

We’ll just have to wait and see.

That’s happened in the past too. It does sometimes.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The gameplan very well may be to use the streaming to finance the studio…full stop. That in no way…and never will…make the failure at the BO “palatable” to the management.

I always thought the plan was for D+ to offset diminishing TV revenue… D+ better be insanely profitable because now it seems to be the backup plan to offset losses from TV, theaters, and physical media sales.

 

[TP2000]

Okay, gang, weekend box office previews from Thursday are out. Not much news. Rinse and repeat. Blah, blah, blah.

Here's a radical thought; instead of sitting inside a movie theater this weekend, get outdoors and do something fun! Summer means fun, and it's time to be active outdoors. For instance, this evening I'm meeting friends at the Marine Room for sundowners and then supper, and we'll watch the sea kayakers doing their sunset paddling. Will I actually get out there in a sea kayak myself this weekend? Hell no. But I'll toast them from my barstool! Have a fun summer weekend gang!

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I always thought the plan was for D+ to offset diminishing TV revenue… D+ better be insanely profitable because now it seems to be the backup plan to offset losses from TV, theaters, and physical media sales.

It is and was the plan. And they aren’t there yet. I was shocked when I looked (as close to possible since they hide it) at the revenues from 2010 comped to 2024. They’re not there…not close to adjusted for inflation.

It was never about covering movies that get theatrical release…content…maybe…but not things which are supposed to arrives to stream at least at net zero.

It’s like lining up for a 70 yarder and the other team moves the goalpost behind you before the snap.

The Bloomberg hour to watch Len testa yesterday was all about Netflix (their endings day) and since I don’t track them…I had no idea how much of a bigger fish/player they are compared to the others…very insightful

Their market cap is more than Comcast, time warner and Disney COMBINED. The whole enterprise.

And the Netflix ceo has repeatedly pounded their content is key.

And content is expensive. So if you have to pay for more and more as the price goes up…what’s that do to your streaming profitability?

Mmmmm hmmmm

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Okay, gang, weekend box office previews from Thursday are out. Not much news. Rinse and repeat. Blah, blah, blah.

Here's a radical thought; instead of sitting inside a movie theater this weekend, get outdoors and do something fun! Summer means fun, and it's time to be active outdoors. For instance, this evening I'm meeting friends at the Marine Room for sundowners and then supper, and we'll watch the sea kayakers doing their sunset paddling. Will I actually get out there in a sea kayak myself this weekend? Hell no. But I'll toast them from my barstool! Have a fun summer weekend gang!

View attachment 871648

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025

thenumbers.com

The heat has been oppressive and the violent T-storm activity rampant over the entire eastern US…which accounts for like 2/3 of the population?

Movies should benefit from that…to be honest

 

[DKampy]

Okay, gang, weekend box office previews from Thursday are out. Not much news. Rinse and repeat. Blah, blah, blah.

Here's a radical thought; instead of sitting inside a movie theater this weekend, get outdoors and do something fun! Summer means fun, and it's time to be active outdoors. For instance, this evening I'm meeting friends at the Marine Room for sundowners and then supper, and we'll watch the sea kayakers doing their sunset paddling. Will I actually get out there in a sea kayak myself this weekend? Hell no. But I'll toast them from my barstool! Have a fun summer weekend gang!

View attachment 871648

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025

thenumbers.com

Ahhh…. The 90 + degree weather we have had this summer… I would rather be inside a movie theater…. And people say global warming is not a thing…. We have never seen such consistent days of a heat wave