Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[erasure fan1]

I always thought the plan was for D+ to offset diminishing TV revenue… D+ better be insanely profitable because now it seems to be the backup plan to offset losses from TV, theaters, and physical media sales.

Exactly. That's why some of us have made a big deal with box office. D+ took is taking away tv ad revenue, syndication fees, physical media sales.... And add on the diminished box office it seems like an uphill climb for sure. Maybe that is the grand plan, but it's hard to think that Disney is ok with as many movies flat lining or flopping as they've had. For one of the most money hungry companies I've ever seen, that just doesn't track in my opinion.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…. And people say global warming is not a thing….

…only the dumb people (I’ll own it)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Exactly. That's why some of us have made a big deal with box office. D+ took is taking away tv ad revenue, syndication fees, physical media sales.... And add on the diminished box office it seems like an uphill climb for sure. Maybe that is the grand plan, but it's hard to think that Disney is ok with as many movies flat lining or flopping as they've had. For one of the most money hungry companies I've ever seen, that just doesn't track in my opinion.

To be fair (and a lot of the reason behind the official excuses)…they had no choice

They lived off the espn gravy train for basically 20 years and only went to stream when they HAD to…which was probably too late to be most effective. Bob is neither creative, nor a risk taker…so he rode the horse until it collapsed

Disney has to accept flops…all studios do…
But it is never the goal…never was or will be the goal…and they don’t like it. Flops lose real money in a variety of ways…they are not “good” no matter how many excuses are tried. It’s just bad/rejected product and that’s not good for an IP driven business.

 

[Disney Irish]

It is and was the plan. And they aren’t there yet. I was shocked when I looked (as close to possible since they hide it) at the revenues from 2010 comped to 2024. They’re not there…not close to adjusted for inflation.

It was never about covering movies that get theatrical release…content…maybe…but not things which are supposed to arrives to stream at least at net zero.

It’s like lining up for a 70 yarder and the other team moves the goalpost behind you before the snap.

The Bloomberg hour to watch Len testa yesterday was all about Netflix (their endings day) and since I don’t track them…I had no idea how much of a bigger fish/player they are compared to the others…very insightful

Their market cap is more than Comcast, time warner and Disney COMBINED. The whole enterprise.

And the Netflix ceo has repeatedly pounded their content is key.

And content is expensive. So if you have to pay for more and more as the price goes up…what’s that do to your streaming profitability?

Mmmmm hmmmm

Netflix is rated as a tech company not a media company, that is why their market cap is so high compared to traditional media companies like Disney. It’s like Comcast is rated as a telecom not a media company, which gets usually lower capitalization overall.

 

[BlindChow]

[T]hat means we’ve got 2 for 2 in terms of Disney making a billion each on their two films after they almost ended up being Disney+ releases.

So, that leads me to the ultimate question. Will Disney be 3 for 3 w/ this business strategy when Star Wars: The Mandalorian And Grogu arrives only in theaters during Memorial Day Weekend 2026...?

Lilo/Moana and Star Wars have very different target demographics, so I don't think you can draw any logical box office predictions about the latter from the former.

And, obviously, the fact the Lilo & Moana were switched from a Disney+ debut to theatrical is NOT the reason they were successful.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Lilo/Moana and Star Wars have very different target demographics, so I don't think you can draw any logical box office predictions about the latter from the former.

And, obviously, the fact the Lilo & Moana were switched from a Disney+ debut to theatrical is NOT the reason they were successful.

I mean it’s still something to think about, knowing that Season 4 of The Mandalorian was reworked into The Mandalorian & Grogu for movie theaters with a lot of changes in the wake of making it a big screen movie, having to address Carl Weathers’ passing, adding in Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White to the movie, and more.

And knowing this sort of business decision worked with Moana 2 and live-action Lilo & Stitch, I have to imagine The Mandalorian and Grogu will fare similarly.

 

[Tha Realest]

I mean it’s still something to think about, knowing that Season 4 of The Mandalorian was reworked into The Mandalorian & Grogu for movie theaters with a lot of changes in the wake of making it a big screen movie, having to address Carl Weathers’ passing, adding in Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White to the movie, and more.

And knowing this sort of business decision worked with Moana 2 and live-action Lilo & Stitch, I have to imagine The Mandalorian and Grogu will fare similarly.

There’s still hope Disney course corrects and reshapes (yet again) this Tiana D+ series for a theatrical release with flourishes of hand-drawn animation!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lilo/Moana and Star Wars have very different target demographics, so I don't think you can draw any logical box office predictions about the latter from the former.

And, obviously, the fact the Lilo & Moana were switched from a Disney+ debut to theatrical is NOT the reason they were successful.

100%

It’s just that those characters sell swag…more then anything

If anything…they should never have been slated for direct to digital

They were wise to correct those mistakes and make money off them instead

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

100%

It’s just that those characters sell swag…more then anything

If anything…they should never have been slated for direct to digital

They were wise to correct those mistakes and make money off them instead

Grogu/Baby Yoda sells merch, too.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Grogu/Baby Yoda sells merch, too.

It does…

I think that one has a little bit more “obstacles” to climb…but it will be profitable in the theaters…no doubt

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

It does…

I think that one has a little bit more “obstacles” to climb…but it will be profitable in the theaters…no doubt

Glad we can agree there.

 

[DKampy]

So much for Horror being the hot genre right now…. I know What You Did Last Summer most optimistic gauge is 14 million this weekend…It will turn a profit thanks to it’s small 18 million budget… there will always be Horror movies… as they seem to keep the budgets lower then most other genre’s… but that is not a reason against Horror fatigue

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So much for Horror being the hot genre right now…. I know What You Did Last Summer most optimistic gauge is 14 million this weekend…It will turn a profit thanks to it’s small 18 million budget… there will always be Horror movies… as they seem to keep the budgets lower then most other genre’s… but that is not a reason against Horror fatigue

The originals were campy

I expected (hoped) Superman would grow in popularity this week and defy “norms”…word of mouth seems good

 

[BrianLo]

It is and was the plan. And they aren’t there yet. I was shocked when I looked (as close to possible since they hide it) at the revenues from 2010 comped to 2024. They’re not there…not close to adjusted for inflation.

Interesting thought experiment. Only studios lag with inflation, but overall their revenue in linear media, movies and streaming significantly eclipses 2010.

2010 Media Revenue
17.162B (all in)

2010 Studio Revenue
6.071B

2024 Media Revenue
Linear - 10.629
Sports - 17.691
All in - 28.32B

2024 Studio Revenue
7.718B

2024 DTC Revenue
22.776B

 

[BrianLo]

I always thought the plan was for D+ to offset diminishing TV revenue… D+ better be insanely profitable because now it seems to be the backup plan to offset losses from TV, theaters, and physical media sales.

That was and is the goal. But I think there has been a peel-back (at least as far as Disney is concerned) that linear and studios are still pillars. Not growth pillars, but a lot of the entrenchment has occurred and in some cases the shrinkage has settled towards its new floor.

The thing a lot of people don’t seem to realize is how successfully DTC has not only replaced but accelerated growth from those former pillars. There’s just a sheer impatience that Netflix was afforded and the street stopped affording circa 2022. But that service (Netflix) is now raking in oodles. Even DTC at Disney is raking in oodles in revenue. People might be surprised when DTC with Disney is suddenly at the 0.5B income a quarter mark when it reports. Hardly any time has passed from it will never be profitable to it will never make any money of consequence to being a mini Netflix cash cow.

 

[Disney Irish]

Interesting thought experiment. Only studios lag with inflation, but overall their revenue in linear media, movies and streaming significantly eclipses 2010.

2010 Media Revenue
17.162B (all in)

2010 Studio Revenue
6.071B

2024 Media Revenue
Linear - 10.629
Sports - 17.691
All in - 28.32B

2024 Studio Revenue
7.718B

2024 DTC Revenue
22.776B

Yep, this continued gaslighting that somehow DTC can’t or won’t meet and/or exceed linear from 15-20 years ago is starting to get tiring. We’re there people, everyone is all-in on it, one wonders why the continued denial here.

 

[BrianLo]

Yep, this continued gaslighting that somehow DTC can’t or won’t meet and/or exceed linear from 15-20 years ago is starting to get tiring. We’re there people, everyone is all-in on it, one wonders why the continued denial here.

It’s simply because operating income doesn’t yet reflect, which is the nature of the growth phase. But operating income has flipped over 6B dollars in like 2.5 years. Too much short sightedness to not see where it is heading.

Disney does seem to be having some issues with customer acquisition (not retention) compared to their speed running price escalation.

I do think next quarter they’ll be over 0.5B. DTC is way more foreign currency exposed than any of its other businesses (sans theatrical) and there’s a 5% upside in foreign currency against their domestic/international revenue splits alone last quarter.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting thought experiment. Only studios lag with inflation, but overall their revenue in linear media, movies and streaming significantly eclipses 2010.

2010 Media Revenue
17.162B (all in)

2010 Studio Revenue
6.071B

2024 Media Revenue
Linear - 10.629
Sports - 17.691
All in - 28.32B

2024 Studio Revenue
7.718B

2024 DTC Revenue
22.776B

Yeah that lined up

Except one benchmark is after like the greatest inflationary period in…how long?

Costs too…

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Superman and Jurassic World still dominating.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Superman and Jurassic World still dominating.

I was surprised Superman didn’t hold more domestic (above $60)…but strong

Jurassic world just kinda reaffirms
That rehashed, recognizable crap still sells…If not quite as much as before…

Will be interesting to see how next week goes?