Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Also I don’t know if Halloween Costumes was ever a tell tale sign of popularity of a franchise…. I don’t recall seeing a ton of Marty McFly costumes in the 80’s

Agreed, I think its really only a few major franchises that ever really broke thru into costumes, and like toys Star Wars was just top of that list.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh my God, you don't pay attention to it do you? Minecraft Steve has been a staple of Halloween costumes by us since a couple years after the game came out. Personally I didn't think Minecraft was going to be as big as it was. UNTIL there were Steves all over the place at my son's Halloween parade. That's when I said this could be big. It was every grade, at least two or so kids in most classes. Minecraft is great example for the "theory" not an argument against it.

So the two closest elementary and middle schools (the age of the gamers) has approximately 1000 kids between them that are literally walking steps from my house so I see all the kids walking by on their way to/from school, so yeah I end up paying attention as the little bastards tend to wander all over my yard leaving trash from the candy. And I think I've seen a total of 10 Steve's in the last decade, and half of those were in the last year. I mentioned it I believe at the time when this was brought up previously. And I live in the middle of the tech capital of the world, where this stuff IS popular. So yeah its not as popular as you think it is in terms of costumes. Maybe outside the big cities, but not so much IN the big cities where there are a lot more people.

Is there a character in that franchise that is recognizable? After scream, that scream mask was very common till this day. Keep in mind as I've said, it's a spoke in the wheel, not some 100% formula. Just like box office predictions.

The point being is that "spoke" isn't really that relevant as maybe it once was.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Avatar is really a thing on its own though. There's no denying it's probably the biggest franchise that has left almost no pop culture impact. So while the "costume theory" doesn't really hold up with Avatar. I think it is one spoke in the what's popular wheel. Obviously it's nothing scientific, but I do see some correlation in my opinion.

I really feel a lot, or most, of the "no pop culture impact" argument was just a weak argument people created to criticize the movie(s).

Being the most popular movie of all time it drew out a lot of the "I don't like this super popular thing everyone else does so I'm cool" crowd. People who really need to point out they don't like something everyone else does, as if anyone cares.

I would say very few movies really have a lengthy cultural impact beyond awareness. Star Wars created its own industry but that's not normal at all. There are movies like Indiana Jones and Back to the Future that maintained awareness over the years and generated some merchandise, but most movies don't exist beyond the experience of watching them.

So it's ridiculous to dismiss the most popular movie of all time because it didn't come with endless tie-in novels and action figures.

Except, of course, it did generate a super popular theme park land and attractions, with more on the way. Of course, people will dismiss those as well. They do the ride because it's fun but no one actually cares about, or likes, Avatar!

Then there were stories about people being depressed after seeing Avatar because they loved the world so much. I feel like that was probably made up, but it's still an example of the movie having a major impact on people and this alleged behaviour was mocked. Avatar has no cultural impact! Unless it does! Then it's nerds getting too into it so let's make fun of them for it!

 

[erasure fan1]

Also I don’t know if Halloween Costumes was ever a tell tale sign of popularity of a franchise…. I don’t recall seeing a ton of Marty McFly costumes in the 80’s

No one said tell tale sign. Indicator? It can be. I saw plenty of Marty mcfly costumes. Heck, I still see them. The last comicon I was at, my kids school, my oldest nephew went as him a few years back.

 

[erasure fan1]

I really feel a lot, or most, of the "no pop culture impact" argument was just a weak argument people created to criticize the movie(s).

Hard disagree on that one.

I would say very few movies really have a lengthy cultural impact beyond awareness. Star Wars created its own industry but that's not normal at all. There are movies like Indiana Jones and Back to the Future that maintained awareness over the years and generated some merchandise, but most movies don't exist beyond the experience of watching them.

Really? I think you're selling things a bit short.

So it's ridiculous to dismiss the most popular movie of all time because it didn't come with endless tie-in novels and action figures.

Call it what you will. That's what most would call pop culture impact, or at least a big part of it. Merch in stores, costumes, people with tshirts, books, game tie-ins... I'm not dismissing the movie. But you would think that the highest grossing film ever would have more of an impact on all those things.

Except, of course, it did generate a super popular theme park land and attractions, with more on the way. Of course, people will dismiss those as well. They do the ride because it's fun but no one actually cares about, or likes, Avatar!

The world of Avatar is fantastic to look at. And yes, a lot of people do ride flight of passage just because it's a fun ride. Do you think that people are only riding Tiana's bayou adventure because of princess and the frog? No, it's a fun water ride no matter the ip behind it.

Avatar has no cultural impact! Unless it does! Then it's nerds getting too into it so let's make fun of them for it!

Sure it had cultural impact. It was the highest grossing movie of all time. You do realize that saying it had little pop culture impact and no cultural impact are different things right? My question for use is this. Why is it such a bad thing to say it didn't leave much of a pop culture foot print?

The movie was a spectacle with revolutionary 3d, set in a cool looking world. There's nothing wrong with that. Shakespeare it isn't. In my limited plain of existence, I just don't see many, if any, who loved the films. And that's not because they just want to be all counter culture.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Also I don’t know if Halloween Costumes was ever a tell tale sign of popularity of a franchise…. I don’t recall seeing a ton of Marty McFly costumes in the 80’s

I mean, the character has to lend itself to being made into a costume.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hard disagree on that one.

Really? I think you're selling things a bit short.

Call it what you will. That's what most would call pop culture impact, or at least a big part of it. Merch in stores, costumes, people with tshirts, books, game tie-ins... I'm not dismissing the movie. But you would think that the highest grossing film ever would have more of an impact on all those things.

The world of Avatar is fantastic to look at. And yes, a lot of people do ride flight of passage just because it's a fun ride. Do you think that people are only riding Tiana's bayou adventure because of princess and the frog? No, it's a fun water ride no matter the ip behind it.

Sure it had cultural impact. It was the highest grossing movie of all time. You do realize that saying it had little pop culture impact and no cultural impact are different things right? My question for use is this. Why is it such a bad thing to say it didn't leave much of a pop culture foot print?

The movie was a spectacle with revolutionary 3d, set in a cool looking world. There's nothing wrong with that. Shakespeare it isn't. In my limited plain of existence, I just don't see many, if any, who loved the films. And that's not because they just want to be all counter culture.

In all fairness very few things on this or any other plane of existence are on the level of the Bard. So I wouldn't use that as some comparison. In addition I think Wendy is right, very few movies (especially these days) see any huge cultural impact beyond initial release. Most are instantly forgettable after a few weeks to a few months, certainly within a few years. I think some confuse the impact Star Wars had as some threshold that must be hit and everything else is failure rather than it being a unique lightning in a bottle situation of its time unto itself.

 

[TP2000]

Unlike you I don’t buy into the Halloween costume metric theory that you trot out every few months as some proof of popularity.

It's sort of a joke.

It's clearly not scientific, and is subject to all sorts of variables to what part of the country my front steps are in on Halloween, what socio-economic neighborhood my front steps are in on Halloween, and now is highly skewed because for the past 20+ years (in two different states) I've been known as the suspiciously stylish confirmed bachelor on the block who gives out full size Almond Hershey bars and See's Candy gift baskets as costume prizes. The gift basket prizes alone would skew the results to more creative or thoughtful costumes from the children.

Again, it's a joke thing. It's kind of interesting though to ponder what the kids are wearing for Halloween, but it's not scientific.

Did I mention it was a little joke? A thing that makes me chuckle?

 

[coffeefan]

The Target run toys theory, Halloween costume theory, well now you can add the Hot Topic theory @TP2000.

 

[TP2000]

So the two closest elementary and middle schools (the age of the gamers) has approximately 1000 kids between them that are literally walking steps from my house so I see all the kids walking by on their way to/from school, so yeah I end up paying attention as the little bastards tend to wander all over my yard leaving trash from the candy....

You are giving out boxes of raisins on Halloween every year, aren't you? You need to give out better candy.

I give out full size Hershey Almond bars and/or full size Reese's Peanut Butter Cups, and my yard is pristine on November 1st.

 

[Disney Irish]

It's sort of a joke.

It's clearly not scientific, and is subject to all sorts of variables to what part of the country my front steps are in on Halloween, what socio-economic neighborhood my front steps are in on Halloween, and now is highly skewed because for the past 20+ years (in two different states) I've been known as the suspiciously stylish confirmed bachelor on the block who gives out full size Almond Hershey bars and See's Candy gift baskets as costume prizes. The gift basket prizes alone would skew the results to more creative or thoughtful costumes from the children.

Again, it's a joke thing. It's kind of interesting though to ponder what the kids are wearing for Halloween, but it's not scientific.

Did I mention it was a little joke? A thing that makes me chuckle?

Except me thinks it’s not so much a joke to you, just like it wasn’t years ago when you started bringing it up in the DLR forums, as you keep bringing it up now in these discussions. So it’s only a “joke” now that it’s being called out by many as being not really a thing.

 

[Disney Irish]

You are giving out boxes of raisins on Halloween every year, aren't you? You need to give out better candy.

I give out full size Hershey Almond bars and/or full size Reese's Peanut Butter Cups, and my yard is pristine on November 1st.

Actually no, being on a busy street directly across from a school we don’t get trick-or-treaters anymore. The kids stick to the side streets or go the “safe” trunk-or-treat offerings at the schools. I stopped buying candy years ago as it was just a waste. So I usually turn off the light and go to a movie.

 

[TP2000]

Except me thinks it’s not so much a joke to you, just like it wasn’t years ago when you started bringing it up in the DLR forums, as you keep bringing it up now in these discussions. So it’s only a “joke” now that it’s being called out by many as being not really a thing.

It still makes me chuckle every time I type about it though, so it's a joke to me.

Clearly it's not scientific, and never could be. Yet still sort of funny (and fun) to think about, isn't it?

 

[TP2000]

Actually no, being on a busy street directly across from a school we don’t get trick-or-treaters anymore. The kids stick to the side streets or go the “safe” trunk-or-treat offerings at the schools. I stopped buying candy years ago as it was just a waste. So I usually turn off the light and go to a movie.

Oh, how sad.

When I lived in OC the Halloween crowds were huge every year in my neck of the woods. When I evacuated moved out of California and into a smallish gated community I thought I'd only get a handful of trick-or-treaters. But the opposite was true. I don't get nearly as many as when I lived in OC, but I still get a few dozen each year. And they're polite as all heck!

Then at 9:30 I turn off the house lighting, make myself a very dry martini, and say "Well done, TP2000, well done!"

 

[Disney Irish]

It still makes me chuckle every time I type about it though, so it's a joke to me.

Clearly it's not scientific, and never could be. Yet still sort of funny (and fun) to think about, isn't it?

So then you’ll know it’s a joke too when we keep calling it out as not being a thing and never really was.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Hard disagree on that one.

Really? I think you're selling things a bit short.

Call it what you will. That's what most would call pop culture impact, or at least a big part of it. Merch in stores, costumes, people with tshirts, books, game tie-ins... I'm not dismissing the movie. But you would think that the highest grossing film ever would have more of an impact on all those things.

The world of Avatar is fantastic to look at. And yes, a lot of people do ride flight of passage just because it's a fun ride. Do you think that people are only riding Tiana's bayou adventure because of princess and the frog? No, it's a fun water ride no matter the ip behind it.

Sure it had cultural impact. It was the highest grossing movie of all time. You do realize that saying it had little pop culture impact and no cultural impact are different things right? My question for use is this. Why is it such a bad thing to say it didn't leave much of a pop culture foot print?

The movie was a spectacle with revolutionary 3d, set in a cool looking world. There's nothing wrong with that. Shakespeare it isn't. In my limited plain of existence, I just don't see many, if any, who loved the films. And that's not because they just want to be all counter culture.

It may not have had a huge impact beyond being a successful movie, but hearing that often feels like people are grasping at straws to downplay its' success.

You do it again by claiming "no one loved" the films.

A movie doesn't do Avatar business without positive word of mouth and repeat viewers. There's this implication that we've been hoodwinked into seeing it or something.

Plenty of people love the films for what they are, even if they don't need to read a spinoff novel. Kind of like almost all movies.

Is the lack of merchandise cited because it's a sci-fi move or something? If a movie is in the same genre as Star Wars is that more of an expectation or something?

Avatar had enough of an impact that people came out in droves for the sequel. Allegedly despite not even liking the original.

 

[erasure fan1]

In all fairness very few things on this or any other plane of existence are on the level of the Bard. So I wouldn't use that as some comparison.

When you really look around, and if you're being honest. It's pretty clear that Avatar is what it is, and I'm not sure why that's so controversial. Why can't Avatar be a series that people watch because it's nice eye candy, and something people want to see for the spectacle? When the great majority of people you interact with all have the basic philosophy on a film. Then you look around and see that same sentiment all over the place, there's a good chance it's probably more right than not. It's not 100%, I've never said otherwise.

In addition I think Wendy is right, very few movies (especially these days) see any huge cultural impact beyond initial release. Most are instantly forgettable after a few weeks to a few months, certainly within a few years.

It's Avatar, the highest grossing movie ever. All you are really arguing is I'm correct. It sounds like you two really love Avatar and that's great. It really is ok. Avatar made bank at the theater and didn't do a whole lot in the pop culture space. Is it really that insulting to the film to say?

 

[TP2000]

So then you’ll know it’s a joke too when we keep calling it out as not being a thing and never really was.

Agreed. What do little kids know about pop culture? Nothing! The know nothing!

 

[TP2000]

The Fantastic Four is being reported as having a production budget of $200 Million, and it's debut weekend projections are in the $125 to $145 Million range domestically.

If that holds, and if The Fantastic Four does simply as well overseas as it does domestically, then it would seem it might break even at the box office by Labor Day. Seems kind of strange for a big budget Marvel movie to be headed towards actually breaking even, doesn't it?

Do we dare think it might even turn a profit?

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS Still On Course for ~$125M+ Ahead of Tuesday Review Embargo – Box Office Theory

boxofficetheory.com

 

[TP2000]

Also, The Fantastic Four and its little robot guy will be doing meet and greets in Tomorrowland at Disneyland. And because it's Disneyland and the LA entertainment economy has tanked and there are a lot of out of work actors around, the face characters actually look really good. (I still remember the "Aladdin" that WDW once had in their Adventureland who looked and sounded like a stocky Italian guy from the Jersey shore )

Burbank ignored Snow White and Elio in the parks this past spring and early summer, but now they're going all in on The Fantastic Four.

I'd love to know how they knew that Elio and Snow White were going to bomb, but are feeling better about The Fantastic Four?