Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
It is and was the plan. And they aren’t there yet. I was shocked when I looked (as close to possible since they hide it) at the revenues from 2010 comped to 2024. They’re not there…not close to adjusted for inflation.

Interesting thought experiment. Only studios lag with inflation, but overall their revenue in linear media, movies and streaming significantly eclipses 2010.

2010 Media Revenue
17.162B (all in)

2010 Studio Revenue
6.071B

2024 Media Revenue
Linear - 10.629
Sports - 17.691
All in - 28.32B

2024 Studio Revenue
7.718B

2024 DTC Revenue
22.776B
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I always thought the plan was for D+ to offset diminishing TV revenue… D+ better be insanely profitable because now it seems to be the backup plan to offset losses from TV, theaters, and physical media sales.

That was and is the goal. But I think there has been a peel-back (at least as far as Disney is concerned) that linear and studios are still pillars. Not growth pillars, but a lot of the entrenchment has occurred and in some cases the shrinkage has settled towards its new floor.

The thing a lot of people don’t seem to realize is how successfully DTC has not only replaced but accelerated growth from those former pillars. There’s just a sheer impatience that Netflix was afforded and the street stopped affording circa 2022. But that service (Netflix) is now raking in oodles. Even DTC at Disney is raking in oodles in revenue. People might be surprised when DTC with Disney is suddenly at the 0.5B income a quarter mark when it reports. Hardly any time has passed from it will never be profitable to it will never make any money of consequence to being a mini Netflix cash cow.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Interesting thought experiment. Only studios lag with inflation, but overall their revenue in linear media, movies and streaming significantly eclipses 2010.

2010 Media Revenue
17.162B (all in)

2010 Studio Revenue
6.071B

2024 Media Revenue
Linear - 10.629
Sports - 17.691
All in - 28.32B

2024 Studio Revenue
7.718B

2024 DTC Revenue
22.776B
Yep, this continued gaslighting that somehow DTC can’t or won’t meet and/or exceed linear from 15-20 years ago is starting to get tiring. We’re there people, everyone is all-in on it, one wonders why the continued denial here.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Yep, this continued gaslighting that somehow DTC can’t or won’t meet and/or exceed linear from 15-20 years ago is starting to get tiring. We’re there people, everyone is all-in on it, one wonders why the continued denial here.

It’s simply because operating income doesn’t yet reflect, which is the nature of the growth phase. But operating income has flipped over 6B dollars in like 2.5 years. Too much short sightedness to not see where it is heading.

Disney does seem to be having some issues with customer acquisition (not retention) compared to their speed running price escalation.

I do think next quarter they’ll be over 0.5B. DTC is way more foreign currency exposed than any of its other businesses (sans theatrical) and there’s a 5% upside in foreign currency against their domestic/international revenue splits alone last quarter.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Interesting thought experiment. Only studios lag with inflation, but overall their revenue in linear media, movies and streaming significantly eclipses 2010.

2010 Media Revenue
17.162B (all in)

2010 Studio Revenue
6.071B

2024 Media Revenue
Linear - 10.629
Sports - 17.691
All in - 28.32B

2024 Studio Revenue
7.718B

2024 DTC Revenue
22.776B
Yeah that lined up

Except one benchmark is after like the greatest inflationary period in…how long?

Costs too…
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
The heat has been oppressive and the violent T-storm activity rampant over the entire eastern US…which accounts for like 2/3 of the population?
Movies should benefit from that…to be honest
Ahhh…. The 90 + degree weather we have had this summer… I would rather be inside a movie theater….

Oh, dear. How quickly I forget my years back East! Summer can be brutal there, certainly. Boston was bad, even though it was less humid/hot than the few years I was in the South, because you were still fighting Boston traffic and city life. But my absolute least favorite gig was the two years I spent in Houston (Baytown, precisely, for a hugely lucrative contract we had with Chevron so I wasn't supposed to complain). That. Was. Awful! 🥵

But, on the flip side, because the eastern half of the nation has been having a heat wave, the western half of the nation has mostly been running 4 to 10 degrees below normal this summer, as seen here in the blues and greens west of the Rockies. It's been like this since late June, west of Denver.

Brr!.jpg


Here at the beach, the thermometer on my patio never cracked 70 degrees all weekend long. Sweaters and wraps were a must after sundown. 🥶 Although it's finally going to get above 70 for a few days later this week.

They Say Consistency Is Key.jpg


The good news?!?.... These sorts of mid-term weather trends almost always move west to east. So while the western half of the nation may be having a cooler than average June/July, I'd bet two churros that moves east and you guys will have a pleasant August. And then in September, California will blaze hot and spike over 100 like it always does. :oops:

That weather swap for August will give you guys a perfect excuse why you can't go see Fantastic Four and Freakier Friday, while us Westerners won't have that luxury in August and September. :cool:
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
For those of you sheltering in place in movie theaters this hot summer weekend, here's what your contribution to box office looks like from a numbers perspective.

The classic tale of American immigration, Superman, dropped a solid 54% in its second weekend. With weak overseas box office that is less than its domestic haul, it's going to be one to watch to see if it can break even by Labor Day.

Elio and Lilo & Stitch kept doing their things in different ways, but at least they are both consistent.

And now, onward to The Fantastic Four! 🤩

I Was Outdoors All Weekend, What Did You Do.jpg


 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
The little secret nobody wants to accept is the first one didn’t really do that well.

It is what it is…and that’s it

It’s not a secret. It’s a known fact that people did contortions around to boost it’s supposed popularity.
No one doubts its slightly better than break even box office in 2009, but it has gained in popularity steadily since then.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
From the horses mouth. I know there’s been conspiracies about the recent MCU budgets, but it seems to be valid.

“In building a better mousetrap at Marvel, Feige says the studio has scaled down their production costs greatly. They took notice of the VFX spectacle that Gareth Edwards made with The Creator, which was shot in Thailand, and met with that pic’s below-the-line heads to learn how they pulled off such efficiency. Also, Marvel was pushed to scrutinize their budgets more coming out of the pandemic, which required increased safety protocols.

“The movies made over the last two years have been upwards of a third cheaper than they were two years before that, i.e. Deadpool & Wolverine, Captain America, Thunderbolts* and Fantastic Four are all significantly cheaper than films from 2022 and 2023, and they would have been even cheaper if it wasn’t for the strikes,” he explains.”

Also generally an interesting interview.

 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Jurassic Park added 115.3M this week to 648M implying 878.6M. A larger drop off from last weeks totals and I’ll now confidently say I also think 1B is off the table. Probably totaling more like 800-850 given the retrenchment, though I’ll see if week four stabilizes.

Superman did 187M to 407M implying 781M. Even if that slips, which week three seems to always have a slip (plus F4 comp), 700M is a great run for that movie.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
The little secret nobody wants to accept is the first one didn’t really do that well.

It is what it is…and that’s it

Such a shame, because The Princess & The Frog had one of the best pieces of park entertainment attached to it of all time. Right up there with The Lion King Parade. Tiana's Showboat Jubilee promenading on the banks of New Orleans Square and then boarding the Mark Twain for a riverboat.... well, jubilee, was pure Disneyland charm and toe-tapping goodness.

That Disneyland show may have been better than the actual movie, but the show stood on its own as park excellence.

Such a shame that the log ride remake turned out to be a steaming pile of broken-down crap. I had high hopes for it. :(

No one doubts its slightly better than break even box office in 2009, but it has gained in popularity steadily since then.

I've still never seen a Princess Tiana on my doorstep on Halloween. Have you?

What does "gained in popularity steadily since then" mean exactly? Going from 0.4% of 7 year old girls interested in her, to 0.6% of 7 year old girls interested in her?

I'm surprised the jodhpur wearing version didn't get the 7 year old girls excited to be her. What little girl in America doesn't love form-hiding and hard-wearing unisex Princess wear that can take you from a swamp to an employee-owned cooperative?

princess-tiana-new-costume.png
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
From the horses mouth. I know there’s been conspiracies about the recent MCU budgets, but it seems to be valid.



Also generally an interesting interview.

Lower budget + bad ideas + cheaper actors appears to be a real “winner” angle

A lot to ask after you make 20 or so movies over 15 years…one would think?
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Such a shame, because The Princess & The Frog had one of the best pieces of park entertainment attached to it of all time. Right up there with The Lion King Parade. Tiana's Showboat Jubilee promenading on the banks of New Orleans Square and then boarding the Mark Twain for a riverboat.... well, jubilee, was pure Disneyland charm and toe-tapping goodness.

That Disneyland show may have been better than the actual movie, but the show stood on its own as park excellence.

Such a shame that the log ride remake turned out to be a steaming pile of broken-down crap. I had high hopes for it. :(



I've still never seen a Princess Tiana on my doorstep on Halloween. Have you?

What does "gained in popularity steadily since then" mean exactly? Going from 0.4% of 7 year old girls interested in her, to 0.6% of 7 year old girls interested in her?

I'm surprised the jodhpur wearing version didn't get the 7 year old girls excited to be her. What little girl in America doesn't love form-hiding and hard-wearing unisex Princess wear that can take you from a swamp to an employee-owned cooperative?

princess-tiana-new-costume.png
Unlike you I don’t buy into the Halloween costume metric theory that you trot out every few months as some proof of popularity. You famously incorrectly claimed that Avatar wasn’t popular because of the same silly wildly wrong costume theory saying you never saw a blue alien show up at your door, and look how that turned out when Avatar 2 was released. So maybe just maybe your costume metric should be retired permanently. As I bet you still won’t see a blue alien this Halloween either and Avatar 3 will still be popular.

But you know what I did see, lots of girls wearing Tiana merch at Disneyland this weekend when I was there.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
You famously incorrectly claimed that Avatar wasn’t popular because of the same silly wildly wrong costume theory saying you never saw a blue alien show up at your door, and look how that turned out when Avatar 2 was released.
Avatar is really a thing on its own though. There's no denying it's probably the biggest franchise that has left almost no pop culture impact. So while the "costume theory" doesn't really hold up with Avatar. I think it is one spoke in the what's popular wheel. Obviously it's nothing scientific, but I do see some correlation in my opinion.
 

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