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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
This virus resurgence will getting worse in months as fall/winter comes then we'll screwed if we will better until next year.
 
Slpy3270

Slpy3270

Well-Known Member
DisneyFan32 said:
www.cnn.com

Covid-19 'is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated,' CDC director says | CNN

With Covid-19 cases rising in all 50 states, health officials say it's clear that unvaccinated people are both driving the increase in cases and are most at risk.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

If this fall and winter season comes, we're screwed if we don't reach 70-80% people fully vaccinated
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Actually with Delta we'll need to reach 98% fully vaccinated, and I don't think any country will ever reach that threshold.

Plus, a major problem with the idea that this is the "pandemic of the unvaccinated" is that the CDC is not tracking breakthrough infections unless it leads to hospitalizations and deaths, which makes absolutely no sense since there's evidence that fully vaxxed people may still be spreading it to the unvaxxed. It also puts LA County's clain of 99.6% of cases unvaxxed in major scrutiny.
 
DonniePeverley

DonniePeverley

Well-Known Member
danlb_2000 said:
... but the big difference is that getting seriously ill from covid is now pretty much a choice instead of a random occurrence. Anyone who wants to have almost perfect protection from the virus can have it for free in 2 to 6 weeks.
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Question for you ... once you catch covid, can you catch it again? I ask because i often hear the term 'herd immunity'

Sorry if discussed before.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Slpy3270 said:
Actually with Delta we'll need to reach 98% fully vaccinated, and I don't think any country will ever reach that threshold.

Plus, a major problem with the idea that this is the "pandemic of the unvaccinated" is that the CDC is not tracking breakthrough infections unless it leads to hospitalizations and deaths, which makes absolutely no sense since there's evidence that fully vaxxed people may still be spreading it to the unvaxxed. It also puts LA County's clain of 99.6% of cases unvaxxed in major scrutiny.
Click to expand...

If 98% is needed that's 98% immune not vaccinated. With the ease that delta seems to spread among the unvaccinated, it won't take that long for the unvaccinated to have natural immunity.

Even a dictatorship wouldn't get 98% vaccinated.
 
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Slpy3270

Slpy3270

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
If 98% is needed that's 98% immune not vaccinated. With the ease that delta seems to spread among the unvaccinated, it sing l won't take that long for the unvaccinated to have natural immunity.

Even a dictatorship wouldn't get 98% vaccinated.
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That would literally mean tens of millions of American deaths, and since seniors have already been mostly fully vaxxed the main spreaders and casualties would have to be children, young people and those in poverty, all three of which have many barriers to getting vaxxed despite being the most eager of the groups to get them.
 
danlb_2000

danlb_2000

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
It's seems to be similar to the vaccines where there is an effectiveness component and and also a (as yet unknown) duration component to natural immunity.
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There was some buzz in the media last year about re-infection, but it hasn't turned out to be a big problem, so it looks like previous infection has pretty high efficacy against re-infection. Efficacy from natural infection will also vary when you are exposed to a different variant then you were originally infected with.
 
danlb_2000

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Slpy3270 said:
That would literally mean tens of millions of American deaths, and since seniors have already been mostly fully vaxxed the main spreaders and casualties would have to be children, young people and those in poverty, all three of which have many barriers to getting vaxxed despite being the most eager of the groups to get them.
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That number is way to high. Currently there are 35 million reported cases in the US and 624,000 deaths. So if we scale 35 million to the US population of 328 million, that is 9.4, so 624,000 * 9.4 = 5.8 million deaths, but that would be an unrealistic worst case. Reported cases is probably a significant under count which would lower the death number. Also, a significant portion of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated so we are not going to see the same death rate now as we saw earlier in the pandemic. Finally there are a lot of vaccinated people who are even less likely to die.

Letting everyone get infected will result in more deaths, but unless a far more lethal variant pops up it wouldn't be "tens of millions".
 
Kman

Kman

Well-Known Member
danlb_2000 said:
That number is way to high. Currently there are 35 million reported cases in the US and 624,000 deaths. So if we scale 35 million to the US population of 328 million, that is 9.4, so 624,000 * 9.4 = 5.8 million deaths, but that would be an unrealistic worst case. Reported cases is probably a significant under count which would lower the death number. Also, a significant portion of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated so we are not going to see the same death rate now as we saw earlier in the pandemic. Finally there are a lot of vaccinated people who are even less likely to die.

Letting everyone get infected will result in more deaths, but unless a far more lethal variant pops up it wouldn't be "tens of millions".
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Don't forget excess mortality which basically doubles the total number of deaths.
 
SamusAranX

SamusAranX

Well-Known Member
Chi84 said:
How would that be done?
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The Constitution states the federal gov’t (Congress) is empowered to provide for the general welfare. Under the delegation doctrines, Congress has delegated much authority to regulatory agencies such as the CDC. We also have almost 100 years of SCOTUS precedent stating that Congress can regulate commerce, including that anything that substantially affects it, even if it remains within one state. Even Scalia, a hardcore conservative, ruled in favor of this principle in Gonzales v Reich.

Covid has more then substantially affected commerce, and not just intrastate but interstate. I.e. a regulation or law can be passed or issued that can mandate large businesses to implement masks, for example. Even if the business is doing business only, in say, Palatka, Florida; past decisions have held that indirect or aggregate effects of said business can be said to affect interstate commerce, and thus be regulated. It is the basis, for example, of civil rights laws. See Heart of Atlanta Motel v United States or Wickard v Filburn. The former allowed civil rights legislation to be applied to a hotel that did business only in Georgia (I.e. it literally wasn’t interstate commerce). The latter stated that a regulatory agency could establish a quota order that prevented an individual in one state from growing wheat on his own land!
 
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DC0703

DC0703

Well-Known Member
SamusAranX said:
See my response to @Chi84 ; there is definitely a case to be made. I think it’s more a policy and political choice that is being made. It would be political suicide. But is it constitutional [a federal stay at home/lockdown order]? Yeah, I think so
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Unless a variant arises that obliterates all vaccine immunity, I don't see any reason why we would have lockdowns again. Mask mandates maybe, but not lockdowns. With working vaccines, a majority of deaths at this point are preventable. You are right that it would be political suicide - causing hefty economic pain in a time when many businesses are still struggling, solely to protect unvaccinated people who refuse to help themselves and who will continue to congregate unmasked anyway... there is little upside to that politically.
 
Phil12

Phil12

Well-Known Member
Where I live in Florida less than 35% of the county residents have been vaccinated. New cases of COVID-19 are increasing along with more hospitalizations for COVID-19. And deaths from COVID-19 are increasing as well.

People that I know who have not been vaccinated think that the vaccine is either pointless, harmful or a direct infringement on their constitutional rights. They completely distrust the government and they refuse to comply with wearing a mask or social distancing.

And, unfortunately, in most of Florida these people are in the majority:

 
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