Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[TrainsOfDisney]

Here’s some interesting data from Las Vegas on breakthrough cases.

https://media.southernnevadahealthd.../breakthrough/20210715-breakthrough-cases.pdf

 

[LittleBuford]

Really disheartening stuff:

Johnson to press ahead with lifting Covid rules despite worry over case numbers

Scientists and health experts urge the government to scrap ‘dangerous experiment’ as UK daily cases breach 50,000

www.theguardian.com

 

[Touchdown]

Lockdowns will only return if one of these things happens:

1. A large amount of vaccinated individuals start getting severe disease (defined as becoming hypoxic and/or being hospitalized)
2. A large amount of children <12 start getting severe disease
3. Hospitals get overrun

3 is iffy and would be a local issue only, over 50% of voters (adults) are vaccinated and a large amount of us are unwilling to curtail our freedom to protect unvaccinated at this point because a vast majority of those people have chosen to not protect themselves. That’s their choice and they need to live or die based on it. If things get really bad with delta, maybe the 25% of them that are still undecided will get it and who knows if the 75% who state they definitely won’t get it will step out of their delusion. I do feel terrible for any vaccinated person/child who gets severe disease and the small sliver of the population who has a medical reason they can’t get the vaccine but unfortunately the only solutions to this (vaccine passports, required vaccinations) is not politically possible in this country currently.

The same strong sense of freedom in American culture that drives the unvaccinated to make their choice also lives in the vaccinated as well, any lockdown at this point is going to be political suicide unless a very strong argument can be made for it, and I started this post with arguments I would personally accept. It’s really that simple. Mask mandates follow the same rules, but may be more widely accepted with weaker data on the three arguments.

This is the United States, this is our culture, for better or worse I really think it’s pointless to debate if lockdowns will return at this point, they aren’t unless those 3 horrible scenarios occur. Thankfully 1&2 appear to be highly unlikely at the moment, 3 might happen at local levels in low vaccinated areas but given the political makeup of those areas I think it’s unlikely restrictions will be mandated especially since those areas likely never had them in the first place even though I think they should.

 

[danlb_2000]

Don't forget excess mortality which basically doubles the total number of deaths.

Excess mortality showed undercount of deaths, but it's not double.

"Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons. As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported in the United States;"

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

This report describes the estimated excess deaths reported in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with 66% excess deaths attributed to COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

So that's only a 10% undercount. Even if the deaths were doubled it still wouldn't put us anywhere near the op's claim.

 

[iowamomof4]

I kind of wish there was a way for me/my family to get boosters before our trip to WDW in early August. Seems we missed our opportunity to travel during the lower risk time.

 

[correcaminos]

I kind of wish there was a way for me/my family to get boosters before our trip to WDW in early August. Seems we missed our opportunity to travel during the lower risk time.

We do not know if we need boosters yet. For most people you are still early in the time after vaccination to have to worry anyway.

 

[seascape]

Florida is in trouble. California is not far behind. Florida is up to a daily average of 6,493 cases a day. California is now at 3,334 a day. Both states have increased over 170% over the past 2 weeks. I know that the vaccinated are relatively safe but some serious steps are needed. It is obvious that the unvaccinated are not following the standard advice and are not wearing a mask indoors and social distancing. The young adults are acting like .......... Wake up, get the vaccine or follow the rules. As a Covid19 survivor, I can tell you that you don't want to get it. Be smart and drive Covid19 into the ground by getting vaccinated.

 

[Trauma]

More than 1,000 Israelis test positive for COVID

PM Bennett: Vaccine ‘significantly less’ effective against the Delta variant

www.google.com

This seems a little lite on info.

Is there any new data on delta vrs the mRNA vaccines?

I don’t understand how this can be true and the CDC says we don’t need a booster.

I’m starting to get to the point where I think the CDC needs to just shut up.

Whenever they make an official statement it makes huge headlines and that’s all the general public remembers.

As far as your average American is concerned all they know now is “we do not need a booster”

Maybe we don’t need one.

BUT WHY FREAKING SAY IT to our low information public who can’t even figure out we need the vaccine to begin with.

 

[jlhwdw]

Really disheartening stuff:

Johnson to press ahead with lifting Covid rules despite worry over case numbers

Scientists and health experts urge the government to scrap ‘dangerous experiment’ as UK daily cases breach 50,000

www.theguardian.com

How is this disheartening? This has been delayed how many times now? At some point it just needs to happen. We have learned so much about how to safely coexist with the virus. The significant restrictions are no longer necessary.

 

[correcaminos]

More than 1,000 Israelis test positive for COVID

PM Bennett: Vaccine ‘significantly less’ effective against the Delta variant

www.google.com

This seems a little lite on info.

Is there any new data on delta vrs the mRNA vaccines?

I don’t understand how this can be true and the CDC says we don’t need a booster.

I’m starting to get to the point where I think the CDC needs to just shut up.

Whenever they make an official statement it makes huge headlines and that’s all the general public remembers.

As far as your average American is concerned all they know now is “we do not need a booster”

Maybe we don’t need one.

BUT WHY FREAKING SAY IT to our low information public who can’t even figure out we need the vaccine to begin with.

How about you let the trials do what they need to do and not getting worried until we have data?

 

[DisneyFan32]

Florida is in trouble. California is not far behind. Florida is up to a daily average of 6,493 cases a day. California is now at 3,334 a day. Both states have increased over 170% over the past 2 weeks. I know that the vaccinated are relatively safe but some serious steps are needed. It is obvious that the unvaccinated are not following the standard advice and are not wearing a mask indoors and social distancing. The young adults are acting like .......... Wake up, get the vaccine or follow the rules. As a Covid19 survivor, I can tell you that you don't want to get it. Be smart and drive Covid19 into the ground by getting vaccinated.

How is New York and New Jersey's doing now for the cases by fall/winter? Is the cases will go down lower as many people getting vaccinated and follow the rules?

 

[jlhwdw]

Yep. Im over it and as a vaccinated person, I've become quite the Karen lately when it comes to any mention of new restrictions. I feel so sorry for anyone who lives in a place where restrictions are being introduced again. Here is hoping North Carolina doesn't follow suit. Its been refreshing to be back in Florida for two weeks, where things are back to normal. I question why I left tbh.

How long are you here? Two weeks? Our humidity will remind you by the end of your stay

 

[Trauma]

How about you let the trials do what they need to do and not getting worried until we have data?

I think that was my point.

Why are they saying we don’t need a booster when we really don’t have good data yet.

 

[correcaminos]

I think that was my point.

Why are they saying we don’t need a booster when we really don’t have good data yet.

They don't know. Seriously for now we do not need boosters. They don't want people going nuts getting third doses without finding out what is needed and safe. Given how worried people are, if there is a hint of need for a booster people could do things that are not safe. Even a poster here said they wished they could get a booster - we don't know what needs to be done. Let trials do their job so people are safe.

Lab tests and real world data are somewhat conflicting. What happens in one country may or may not happen in another.

Average Americans need stop acting like we know better than those in charge .

As it is nearly 24 hours post 3rd shot here. Arm still sore. Nothing else.

 

[Touchdown]

More than 1,000 Israelis test positive for COVID

PM Bennett: Vaccine ‘significantly less’ effective against the Delta variant

www.google.com

This seems a little lite on info.

Is there any new data on delta vrs the mRNA vaccines?

I don’t understand how this can be true and the CDC says we don’t need a booster.

I’m starting to get to the point where I think the CDC needs to just shut up.

Whenever they make an official statement it makes huge headlines and that’s all the general public remembers.

As far as your average American is concerned all they know now is “we do not need a booster”

Maybe we don’t need one.

BUT WHY FREAKING SAY IT to our low information public who can’t even figure out we need the vaccine to begin with.

We are trying to get the world vaccinated, the unvaccinated worldwide consist of two groups, antivaxxers and people who live in countries who have not been able to obtain the vaccine (usually because they are poor, but there are poor planners like Aus/NZ and Japan too.) Obviously for that later group a booster represents a massive increase in desire for shots in short supply and is it really fair to boost part of the world when most of it hasn’t even gotten it once?

As for the other group, if they hear a booster is needed they are just going to assume that it proves their belief this is all a scam, the vaccine doesn’t work, and get further calcified into their belief.

There currently is no real world evidence of a significant portion of the vaccinated population getting SEVERE disease. There may be insidences of asymptomatic, mild and moderate disease but that is an acceptable outcome given the risk a booster will have to the worldwide effort. You have to think beyond your life situation and take a more global view. That is why the CDC clamped down hard on Pfizer. Pfizer would prefer that the EU, GB, Canada and USA need to buy more of their product, because we pay them more then COVAX. They are not a neutral party in this and only doing what’s in their best interest.

 

[Trauma]

They don't know. Seriously for now we do not need boosters. They don't want people going nuts getting third doses without finding out what is needed and safe. Given how worried people are, if there is a hint of need for a booster people could do things that are not safe. Even a poster here said they wished they could get a booster - we don't know what needs to be done. Let trials do their job so people are safe.

Lab tests and real world data are somewhat conflicting. What happens in one country may or may not happen in another.

Average Americans need stop acting like we know better than those in charge .

As it is nearly 24 hours post 3rd shot here. Arm still sore. Nothing else.

So you have a greater understanding of this than I do.

Why would people go nuts getting a third dose?

I assumed the booster would be “modified” in a way to make it more effective against the variants.

If you just go get a third dose somehow you would be getting the standard vaccine.

 

[danlb_2000]

More than 1,000 Israelis test positive for COVID

PM Bennett: Vaccine ‘significantly less’ effective against the Delta variant

www.google.com

This seems a little lite on info.

Is there any new data on delta vrs the mRNA vaccines?

I don’t understand how this can be true and the CDC says we don’t need a booster.

I’m starting to get to the point where I think the CDC needs to just shut up.

Whenever they make an official statement it makes huge headlines and that’s all the general public remembers.

As far as your average American is concerned all they know now is “we do not need a booster”

Maybe we don’t need one.

BUT WHY FREAKING SAY IT to our low information public who can’t even figure out we need the vaccine to begin with.

Here is a breakdown of studies on the effectiveness of the current vaccines against Delta. Data from Israel has been an outlier on this, studies in other countries have shown that the current vaccines offer very good protection against Delta. Even if the vaccines were found to be much less effective, we would still need to do studies to determine if a booster of the same vaccine would help.

Here's How Well COVID-19 Vaccines Work Against the Delta Variant

In the fight against the Delta variant, here's how the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines measure up when it comes to protection. A new study found the Moderna vaccine was 76% effective against the Delta variant, while the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective...

www.healthline.com

 

[Jrb1979]

How is this disheartening? This has been delayed how many times now? At some point it just needs to happen. We have learned so much about how to safely coexist with the virus. The significant restrictions are no longer necessary.

Disagree. I have always been of the mindset that restrictions stay in place til a certain percentage of eligible people are vaccinated. Where I live most restrictions stayed in place til we reached 75% one dose and 25% fully vaccinated. I personally believe by doing that is why we have reached 79% with 1 dose and 59% fully vaccinated.

 

[drizgirl]

They don't know. Seriously for now we do not need boosters. They don't want people going nuts getting third doses without finding out what is needed and safe. Given how worried people are, if there is a hint of need for a booster people could do things that are not safe. Even a poster here said they wished they could get a booster - we don't know what needs to be done. Let trials do their job so people are safe.

Lab tests and real world data are somewhat conflicting. What happens in one country may or may not happen in another.

Average Americans need stop acting like we know better than those in charge .

As it is nearly 24 hours post 3rd shot here. Arm still sore. Nothing else.

Can you imagine if people started running out and willy nilly getting third shots, then having bad side effects? We'd have a much harder time getting a legit booster to gain acceptance.

 

[danlb_2000]

So you have a greater understanding of this than I do.

Why would people go nuts getting a third dose?

I assumed the booster would be “modified” in a way to make it more effective against the variants.

If you just go get a third dose somehow you would be getting the standard vaccine.

You don't want people trying to get third doses unless we know that those doses would be safe and effective. A booster could be a third dose of an existing vaccine, or it could be a version of the vaccine that was modified for variants.