Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

So you have a greater understanding of this than I do.

Why would people go nuts getting a third dose?

I assumed the booster would be “modified” in a way to make it more effective against the variants.

If you just go get a third dose somehow you would be getting the standard vaccine.

I just stated even a poster here said they wished they could get a booster even without your post. We do not know what is safe and what is effective. Going rogue without data and safety is not smart. People are not always smart especially in situations like this. So we'd have people going off getting third shots of who knows what.

There are different boosters being tested. These trials, not speculation, will give the datas. Do we need boosters now? No. That's it. Don't try to get a third shot until you are told to. There are no boosters available anyway to even push that we will or won't need them.

Can you imagine if people started running out and willy nilly getting third shots, then having bad side effects? We'd have a much harder time getting a legit booster to gain acceptance.

No kidding. People need to be patient is all.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I think that was my point.

Why are they saying we don’t need a booster when we really don’t have good data yet.

We have some good lab data that suggests we may not need boosters, but this needs to be confirmed in real-time case counts.

I think what Pfizer and Moderna are doing is mostly seeing if they can make a case that boosters can significantly improve the efficacy of their vaccines. Rather than this being a matter of "boosters are needed", more a matter of "boosters can add enough benefit to be worthwhile for the general population". From what I've read, they're less concerned about waining immunity and more concerned that the vaccines aren't quite as effective against the newer variants.

 

[mellyf]

Where I live in Florida less than 35% of the county residents have been vaccinated. New cases of COVID-19 are increasing along with more hospitalizations for COVID-19. And deaths from COVID-19 are increasing as well.

People that I know who have not been vaccinated think that the vaccine is either pointless, harmful or a direct infringement on their constitutional rights. They completely distrust the government and they refuse to comply with wearing a mask or social distancing.

And, unfortunately, in most of Florida these people are in the majority:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/covid-vaccines-biden-trump/2021/07/15/adaf6c7e-e4bd-11eb-a41e-c8442c213fa8_story.html

Same in my county in Illinois except the percentage of fully vaccinated is hovering around 40%. Unfortunately, there is a big push by many of these people in our state to make masks optional for students when school starts. Unmask Our Children is their motto, and many are going to the school boards. (Our school board meetings are typically very poorly attended by parents but this has certainly brought them out.) I've been vaccinated, but the idea of 7 hours in an enclosed, poorly ventilated classroom with 20-25 unvaccinated students (elementary age) doesn't sound good. I will say that as concerned as I was last year at this time, my students last year were amazing with their masks. I was so proud of them. Many parents do not give their children enough credit. But I suspect that there will be very few masked students this coming year.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

 

[Trauma]

I just stated even a poster here said they wished they could get a booster even without your post. We do not know what is safe and what is effective. Going rogue without data and safety is not smart. People are not always smart especially in situations like this. So we'd have people going off getting third shots of who knows what.

There are different boosters being tested. These trials, not speculation, will give the datas. Do we need boosters now? No. That's it. Don't try to get a third shot until you are told to. There are no boosters available anyway to even push that we will or won't need them.

No kidding. People need to be patient is all.

Sorry I didn’t realize this was even a thing the public was talking about until the CDC said something.

Thanks for educating me on this.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

We have some good lab data that suggests we may not need boosters, but this needs to be confirmed in real-time case counts.

I think what Pfizer and Moderna are doing is mostly seeing if they can make a case that boosters can significantly improve the efficacy of their vaccines. Rather than this being a matter of "boosters are needed", more a matter of "boosters can add enough benefit to be worthwhile for the general population". From what I've read, they're less concerned about waining immunity and more concerned that the vaccines aren't quite as effective against the newer variants.

True, but if every single person had just one dose of either shot, it would have a drastic effect on Delta.

 

[iowamomof4]

We have some good lab data that suggests we may not need boosters, but this needs to be confirmed in real-time case counts.

I think what Pfizer and Moderna are doing is mostly seeing if they can make a case that boosters can significantly improve the efficacy of their vaccines. Rather than this being a matter of "boosters are needed", more a matter of "boosters can add enough benefit to be worthwhile for the general population". From what I've read, they're less concerned about waining immunity and more concerned that the vaccines aren't quite as effective against the newer variants.

This is what I've been reading about and what prompted my "I wish I could get a booster" post. I just want to know I have the best protection possible (VACCINATED protection, not really talking about masks and other mitigations) before we fly to Florida. I won't be running out to try to subvert the process or whatever, I'm just stating my frustration about how the timing of our trip is going to likely coincide with a surge of Delta and we won't yet have guidance by then (I'm guessing) about what sort of booster (if any) will help fight this or other variants. The breakthrough cases are concerning to me. I wish we had a better handle on what characteristics make a vaccinated person more likely to succumb to symptomatic infection.

Of course, I ALWAYS get nervous right before a Disney trip about illness before or during our trip so in some ways this is fairly typical for me.

 

[DonniePeverley]

There was some buzz in the media last year about re-infection, but it hasn't turned out to be a big problem, so it looks like previous infection has pretty high efficacy against re-infection. Efficacy from natural infection will also vary when you are exposed to a different variant then you were originally infected with.

So in the first wave you had people exposed to the original virus, then the UK variant, now the Indian variant, mix in some Brazilian and South African. So theoretically you are saying you could be reinfected 4-5 times?

I'm not sure how safe all this 'herd immunity' hypothesis sounds.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Can you imagine if people started running out and willy nilly getting third shots, then having bad side effects? We'd have a much harder time getting a legit booster to gain acceptance.

Haven’t heard the term “willy nilly “ in soooo long. Thanks for the smile.

 

[Touchdown]

So in the first wave you had people exposed to the original virus, then the UK variant, now the Indian variant, mix in some Brazilian and South African. So theoretically you are saying you could be reinfected 4-5 times?

I'm not sure how safe all this 'herd immunity' hypothesis sounds.

Who said that? A very large amount of us (and likely still an overwhelming majority) haven’t had the disease once.

 

[DonniePeverley]

The UK has now shockingly hit 50,000 infections a day - translated to the USA this would be nearly 300,000 infections a day (with UK population being 1/5 of the USA). This is due to the Indian variant now taking over.

The UK has vaccinated more people than the USA. Many scientists predict the UK will be back in full lockdown within 5 weeks. They are scheduled to hit 100,000 infections a day in that time.

Many were suggesting a few weeks ago the USA would not copy the UK, but the clear signs are they are heading in the same direction. Mask and distancing mandate must come back now, not when it's too late.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

The UK has now shockingly hit 50,000 infections a day - translated to the USA this would be nearly 300,000 infections a day (with UK population being 1/5 of the USA). This is due to the Indian variant now taking over.

The UK has vaccinated more people than the USA. Many scientists predict the UK will be back in full lockdown within 5 weeks. They are scheduled to hit 100,000 infections a day in that time.

Many were suggesting a few weeks ago the USA would not copy the UK, but the clear signs are they are heading in the same direction. Mask and distancing mandate must come back now, not when it's too late.

The United States had 35% more infections than the UK which means 35% more natural immunity. They aren't apples to apples. Regardless, lockdowns are never happening again in the United States.

Our goal isn't to prevent cases. Our goal is to prevent hospitalization and death. 300,000 infections per day is similar to a normal flu season. But we need to get mortality of COVID down to or below flu. We do that with vaccination.

 

[danlb_2000]

So in the first wave you had people exposed to the original virus, then the UK variant, now the Indian variant, mix in some Brazilian and South African. So theoretically you are saying you could be reinfected 4-5 times?

I'm not sure how safe all this 'herd immunity' hypothesis sounds.

You could get reinfected more times then that, you could get infected by the same variant multiple times. But the good news is, so far, we haven't seen evidence of wide spread re-infection, and in a lot of the cases of known reinfection the second infection is less serious then the first..

 

[SamusAranX]

The UK has now shockingly hit 50,000 infections a day - translated to the USA this would be nearly 300,000 infections a day (with UK population being 1/5 of the USA). This is due to the Indian variant now taking over.

The UK has vaccinated more people than the USA. Many scientists predict the UK will be back in full lockdown within 5 weeks. They are scheduled to hit 100,000 infections a day in that time.

Many were suggesting a few weeks ago the USA would not copy the UK, but the clear signs are they are heading in the same direction. Mask and distancing mandate must come back now, not when it's too late.

What is the current hospitalization and death rate though in UK?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Regardless, lockdowns are never happening again in the United States.

Masks and distancing do not = lockdowns

 

[Disney Glimpses]

Another reason the UK is different: they may have vaccinated more people but the AstraZeneca shot (which makes up the bulk of their inoculations) is significantly less effective at preventing symptomatic disease from Delta than the shots given in the United States.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

Masks and distancing do not = lockdowns

OP said 'lockdowns' were 5 weeks away. Historically, that means shutting businesses and forcing people to stay home.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

OP said 'lockdowns' were 5 weeks away. Historically, that means shutting businesses and forcing people to stay home.

Oh I see. They also said ”masks and distancing should come back now” - I thought that’s the part you were referring to.

 

[LittleBuford]

How is this disheartening?

I’m not sure why you’re asking if you’ve actually read the article. Some excerpts:

The soaring infections, driven by the more transmissible Delta variant, forced managers at the South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS foundation trust to ask staff to postpone holidays due to “extreme pressure” after Covid patients there increased from two to 80 in a month.​

Infection rates have risen so fast they are about to outrun the number of first vaccinations being administered in England. The number of first jabs delivered daily is close to plateauing at about 50,000 a day leaving one in eight adults – including more than 40% of 18- to 29-year-olds – still unvaccinated.​

But with just days to go until restrictions on indoor mass gatherings are scrapped, an alliance of 1,200 health experts endorsed a letter to the Lancet journal that demanded the government halts its plan altogether.​

They warned the strategy “provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants”, putting the UK and the rest of the world at risk. At an emergency summit, government advisers in Israel, New Zealand and Italy were among those who sounded alarm bells about the policy.​

To me, all of this is disheartening. Perhaps you still disagree.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

Oh I see. They also said ”masks and distancing should come back now” - I thought that’s the part you were referring to.

I also think neither masks or distancing are returning. As soon as you do that, the vaccine campaign is over.

There are two types of people that are unvaccinated:
- immune from prior infection
- not-immune

The not-immune make up at least 80% of unvaccinated (according to latest estimates). Those people are hesitant and don't trust the government. As soon as masks/distancing comes back, we're never getting a shot in their arms.