???? You realize Easter 2020 was almost 11 months ago. For most Americans, their churches still have restricted capacity. And the restrictions on capacity will last quite a bit longer.
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
- Start date
-
- Tags
- coronavirus covid covid-19
- Status
???? You realize Easter 2020 was almost 11 months ago. For most Americans, their churches still have restricted capacity. And the restrictions on capacity will last quite a bit longer.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Yes, it's been a loooooong year for 2020 - feels like it will never end
Oh and I so know you made silly mistake and just couldn't resist.
Churches here are not full. They were shut down for Easter last year and will be limited significantly this year. I mean very significantly. We're at like 150 total in a church that would get at least 400-600 per service if my numbers are right. You have to RSVP for ours still as well. We dont' expect a full church for Easter and actually are struggling with baptisms and if it will effectively be a private mass for easter vigil.
It's been rough. I think our church is expecting August 1st for more normalcy.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Just saw this. I think most of us understood what happened. I'm lousy with things like this. I don't even know what month we're in sometimes let alone anything elseAh, my bad. I still get caught thinking we are in 2020 instead of 2021.
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
Not quite... Friday.
We only have 2 approved vaccines. JNJ should be approved very soon, within the next week. And that's precisely what I'm talking about -- It's important to be accurate and truthful. Saying we have 3 approved vaccines is simply wrong. Nothing to do with being optimistic or pessimistic -- it's simply a false statement.
And same with vaccine effectiveness: We know the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are over 95% effective against the earlier variants. That's excellent. That's true. We know JNJ has shown 66% effectiveness in trials -- Again, excellent. But it's also a fact that 66% is far less than 95%.
It's also a fact that much is unknown. That's not optimistic or pessimistic... it's just facts:
1 -- We don't yet know with any statistical certainty the degree to which the vaccines prevent transmission. (As I optimistically said all along, I suspect they do reduce transmission, but we really have no idea by how much).
2 -- We don't know how long any vaccination immunity will last.
3 -- We don't have a very good idea how effective these vaccines are against the South Africa variant
4 -- We don't know whether we will have to deal with any other significant variants that may evade the vaccine in the coming months
5 -- We don't know what portion of the population will voluntarily get vaccinated (we can only estimate a fairly broad range)
6 -- We don't know what percentage of the population will require vaccination to reach herd immunity
None of this is pessimistic or optimistic. They are simply truthful facts. I believe it's important to stick to truthful facts.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
So generally ~65% effective. That will get the job done.
Yes, it's been a loooooong year for 2020 - feels like it will never end
Oh and I so know you made silly mistake and just couldn't resist.
Churches here are not full. They were shut down for Easter last year and will be limited significantly this year. I mean very significantly. We're at like 150 total in a church that would get at least 400-600 per service if my numbers are right. You have to RSVP for ours still as well. We dont' expect a full church for Easter and actually are struggling with baptisms and if it will effectively be a private mass for easter vigil.
It's been rough. I think our church is expecting August 1st for more normalcy.
My daughter's Bat Mitzvah had to be held with only 20 people in the sanctuary and all other guests watching on zoom.
Is it like this? J&J 91.7% effective for severe Covid after 28 days for (18-59). Less effective for those over 60 (70.3%).
So looking at the data:
In the placebo group, there were 48 infections
In the fully vaccinated group (beyond 28 days for full effectiveness): there were 8 cases of infection
So the reduction from 48 to 8 is statistically significant, and an excellent sign. Even if not as good as Pfizer and Moderna, it's excellent and makes an excellent vaccine.
Now, the reduction in those requiring medical treatment:
In the placebo group, it was 7 out of those 48, meaning 15% of Covid-positive cases needed medical treatment in the placebo group.
In the vaccinated group, it was 0 out of 8.
That data is insufficient to show whether the need for medical treatment is FURTHER reduced in vaccinated Covid-positive cases, or whether it is simply the same reduction as you'd expect based on the reduction in cases).
If it was 70/480 vs 0/80, we would have statistically significant data. But you really can't compare 7 out of 48 with 0 out of 8. Sample size is way too small.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
I've been to virtual weddings and funerals this year with extremely limited in-person guests. Even close family couldn't always travel.
The numbers are variable on lots of factors, depending on the location of the test (since different locations have different variants)
In the US it had higher efficacy because we have less prevalence of the UK and SA variants. If the UK and SA variants rise in the USA, then the efficacy of the JNJ vaccine will drop accordingly, as in those other countries.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
We just had a service Monday for my second uncle that passed away from Covid. Strict restrictions on the church seating.. very minimal with only his brothers and sister and their families allowed in. Was surreal.
DCL update -
"Disney Cruise Line Coronavirus (COVID-19) Travel Alert
February 24, 2021
Disney Cruise Line Extends Suspension of All Departures Through May 2021 and Disney Magic Sailings Through August 10
Our team at Disney Cruise Line remains focused on the health and well-being of our Guests and team members. We are carefully preparing for a return to service following the guidelines issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
As we continue to refine our protocols and await further technical guidance from the CDC, we are cancelling all sailings departing through May 2021.
Disney Magic European Season
Given the likelihood of international borders remaining closed for an extended period of time, we have also made the decision to cancel Disney Magic sailings through August 10, 2021.
Canada Departures
In light of the Canadian government’s announcement that they will not allow ships with more than 100 passengers to dock in any Canadian port until February 28, 2022, we are evaluating various options for the Disney Wonder’s scheduled season in Alaska. Once a decision is made, we will reach out to Guests booked on these sailings.
Additionally, as previously shared, based on the conditional sail order provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Disney Cruise Line must cancel sailings longer than 7 nights.
Guests booked on affected sailings, who have paid their reservation in full, will be offered the choice of a cruise credit to be used for a future sailing or a full refund. Guests, who have not paid their reservations in full, will automatically receive a refund of what they have paid so far. Affected Guests and travel agents will receive an email from Disney Cruise Line outlining details and next steps.
Guests who've booked their reservation through a travel agent should contact them directly with any questions. Those who have booked directly with Disney Cruise Line, and have questions after receiving their email, should call (866) 325-6685 or (407) 566-7797."
https://disneycruise.disney.go.com/guest-services/advisory/
"Disney Cruise Line Coronavirus (COVID-19) Travel Alert
February 24, 2021
Disney Cruise Line Extends Suspension of All Departures Through May 2021 and Disney Magic Sailings Through August 10
Our team at Disney Cruise Line remains focused on the health and well-being of our Guests and team members. We are carefully preparing for a return to service following the guidelines issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
As we continue to refine our protocols and await further technical guidance from the CDC, we are cancelling all sailings departing through May 2021.
Disney Magic European Season
Given the likelihood of international borders remaining closed for an extended period of time, we have also made the decision to cancel Disney Magic sailings through August 10, 2021.
Canada Departures
In light of the Canadian government’s announcement that they will not allow ships with more than 100 passengers to dock in any Canadian port until February 28, 2022, we are evaluating various options for the Disney Wonder’s scheduled season in Alaska. Once a decision is made, we will reach out to Guests booked on these sailings.
Additionally, as previously shared, based on the conditional sail order provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Disney Cruise Line must cancel sailings longer than 7 nights.
Guests booked on affected sailings, who have paid their reservation in full, will be offered the choice of a cruise credit to be used for a future sailing or a full refund. Guests, who have not paid their reservations in full, will automatically receive a refund of what they have paid so far. Affected Guests and travel agents will receive an email from Disney Cruise Line outlining details and next steps.
Guests who've booked their reservation through a travel agent should contact them directly with any questions. Those who have booked directly with Disney Cruise Line, and have questions after receiving their email, should call (866) 325-6685 or (407) 566-7797."
https://disneycruise.disney.go.com/guest-services/advisory/
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
I agree.
The positive is that the vaccines reduces the number of cases proportionally. For example: If 100 people in vaccinated group got covid and 80 were hospitalized. One might infer that the vaccine protects people prone to non serious covid better than the people prone to serious.
As it is it looks like the vaccines ( Both Pfizer and Moderna) protects almost equally well against getting covid whether one would have gotten serious or non serious covid.
Last edited:
GoofGoof
Premium Member
They are approving JnJ as we speak. Now that the data is out officially it’s a formality. Nothing to stop it now but if you believe it won’t be approved I will gladly take that bet.
Just my 2 cents: listing out all of the possible ways that the vaccine rollout could fail is being overly pessimistic. That’s my opinion of course so it can’t be right or wrong. Only listing negative “facts” is by definition being pessimistic. You do you. Nothing you have said so far changes my belief that the vaccines were highly effective against hospitalization and death. Some of those things you listed will never be known. There can always be a new variant or immunity could fade over time. Should the plan be to continue as we are today forever just in case?
My simple solution is this, once everyone has access to the vaccine they start rolling back covid restrictions. Anyone who has been vaccinated but feels the vaccines are not effective can choose to stay home, avoid crowds, and wear a mask still. Nobody will be forced to stop doing those things. There’s no reason to ask people to continue as if nothing has changed once the vaccine is rolled out.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Saw this coming a year ago. It’s a shame but need to be safe about starting DCL up again.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Did anyone think we’d see the day that @legwand77 and @DisneyCane both loved one of my posts in this thread
I told you guys all along we all wanted the same things, we just disagreed a lot on how to get there. Good times ahead for sure
I told you guys all along we all wanted the same things, we just disagreed a lot on how to get there. Good times ahead for sure
Where did I say it won't be approved? It almost certainly will be approved. And I have been saying that for weeks/months.
But again, honesty, truthfulness and facts are important.
There is a difference between "It's already approved" and "it's likely going to get approved."
And saying things are "unknown" is neither optimistic nor pessimistic. I've cited tons of "positive" and "optimistic" facts.
Saying, "we don't know what percentage will be required for herd immunity" is neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
If someone said, "we won't get to herd immunity until we reach 100% vaccination until 2022!" -- Then am I being an optimist or pessimist when I say, "we don't know that."
And finally -- Your simple solution -- We are ALREADY rolling back Covid restrictions. We've been rolling them back for a while. The question is, when do we ELIMINATE Covid restrictions, when we do allow maskless large gatherings?
And there, every single health expert is in agreement -- We need to wait until we have herd immunity.
You may have your "opinion" that all of the experts are wrong. But I'll side with the experts.
I get you're in a hurry. But if we can prevent 50,000+ deaths (mostly among non-vaccinated people, but including a few vaccinated people) by wearing masks for an extra 4-6 weeks.... Then I'll fully support mandatory mask wearing for an extra 4-6 weeks.
And if we can prevent millions of 2022-2025 deaths by wearing masks for an extra 4-6 weeks in 2021... even more so, I'm all for it.
- Status