Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

We can be optimistic and cautious at the same time.

And sometimes mood can dictate how optimistic or cautious one feels. I know I feel that way at least.

 

[havoc315]

Of people who started Covid vaccination, not people who finished.

All the more meaningless.

So here again are the raw numbers of severe hospitalization for vaccinated individuals, separating those who have full vaccination effect (designated as early):

So if 100 fully vaccinated people are being hospitalized with severe Covid..
and if that represents a 99.985% reduction... that would mean 600,000 Israelis in the same-size non-vaccinated group would be hospitalized with severe Covid.

Israel’s total population is 10 million. About half the population is still unvaccinated. Think there are 600,000 current hospitalizations in that group? I’m happy to post the actual number..
(Spoiler.. it’s magnitudes less than 600,000)

 

[DisneyCane]

It says it in the very first paragraph.
“their risk of illness from the coronavirus drop 98.5% and their risk of hospitalization drop 98.9%,”

In other words, risk of hospitalization was reduced only slightly more than the risk of illness.

Yes — your risk of hospitalization is way down. because your risk of illness is way down!

But among those who still do get ill with the vaccine.. within that subgroup, their risk of hospitalization is only slightly better.

It’s right there in black and white.

Simplifying it even more.
In the non-vaccinated group... if 100,000 people get ill, and 10,000 need hospitalization..
Applying the Israel stats.. it would mean 1500 vaccinated people get ill. (A 98.5% reduction). And 110 vaccinated people get hospitalized (a 98.9% reduction).

So among non-vaccinated... in this illustration, 1 out of 10 ill patients end up in the hospital. Among vaccinated patients, 1 out of every 14 ill patients ends up in the Hospital.

Again, it’s right there in the first paragraph if you understand basic statistics.

Your downplaying of the effectiveness of the vaccines is so frustrating. Let's try and put this into real life terms. I'm going to use the 75-84 year old demographic in Florida to illustrate. Based upon the numbers that the state is using for their statistics, 1,404,265 people in Florida are in that demographic. 16,300 people in that population have been hospitalized due to COVID. That means 1,160 out of 100,000 people in that demographic have been hospitalized for COVID during the pandemic.

If the risk of hospitalization is decreased by 98.9%, that means that, in the same time period, there would only be 12.6 out of every 100,000 people between 75 and 84 hospitalized (179 people) even if the community spread was the same and not further reduced by the vaccinations. Now, 9,219 people in this demographic died from COVID which is 56.6% of those hospitalized. That would translate to lowering the number of deaths from 9,219 to 101.

As far as individual risk goes, 101 deaths is 7.19 per 100k people in that demographic. That means, if vaccinated and if the community spread is the same as it has been over the past 11 months, the risk of a vaccinated 75-84 year old in Florida between now and 1/24/21 dying of COVID-19 will be 0.007%. Without vaccination it was 0.66%.

For a 75 year old man, the odds of dying from any cause in the next year is 3.24% and for a 75 year old woman it is 2.49%. Being vaccinated makes the risk of dying of COVID-19 essentially irrelevant. Without vaccination it was significant in comparison to the risk of being alive at that age.

 

[Touchdown]

All the more meaningless.

So here again are the raw numbers of severe hospitalization for vaccinated individuals, separating those who have full vaccination effect (designated as early):

View attachment 534925

So if 100 fully vaccinated people are being hospitalized with severe Covid..
and if that represents a 99.985% reduction... that would mean 600,000 Israelis in the same-size non-vaccinated group would be hospitalized with severe Covid.

Israel’s total population is 10 million. About half the population is still unvaccinated. Think there are 600,000 current hospitalizations in that group? I’m happy to post the actual number..
(Spoiler.. it’s magnitudes less than 600,000)

If my math is correct the number of Israelites in the hospital on Feb 16th (x) should be:
100/x=1-.985
100/x=0.015
100=0.015x
6,666=x

Am I right?

Also may I point out a vaccinated person in Isreal is more likely to be elderly, a healthcare worker or have Comorbid conditions.

 

[havoc315]

Your downplaying of the effectiveness of the vaccines is so frustrating. Let's try and put this into real life terms. I'm going to use the 75-84 year old demographic in Florida to illustrate. Based upon the numbers that the state is using for their statistics, 1,404,265 people in Florida are in that demographic. 16,300 people in that population have been hospitalized due to COVID. That means 1,160 out of 100,000 people in that demographic have been hospitalized for COVID during the pandemic.

If the risk of hospitalization is decreased by 98.9%, that means that, in the same time period, there would only be 12.6 out of every 100,000 people between 75 and 84 hospitalized (179 people) even if the community spread was the same and not further reduced by the vaccinations. Now, 9,219 people in this demographic died from COVID which is 56.6% of those hospitalized. That would translate to lowering the number of deaths from 9,219 to 101.

As far as individual risk goes, 101 deaths is 7.19 per 100k people in that demographic. That means, if vaccinated and if the community spread is the same as it has been over the past 11 months, the risk of a vaccinated 75-84 year old in Florida between now and 1/24/21 dying of COVID-19 will be 0.007%. Without vaccination it was 0.66%.

For a 75 year old man, the odds of dying from any cause in the next year is 3.24% and for a 75 year old woman it is 2.49%. Being vaccinated makes the risk of dying of COVID-19 essentially irrelevant. Without vaccination it was significant in comparison to the risk of being alive at that age.

Not downplaying the effectiveness at all. I’ve said all along, they are currently effective enough to eradicate Covid. So I’m extraordinarily optimistic about the vaccines. (Except AZ... I’m pessimistic that AstraZeneca will even get approved).

You seem frustrated by the advice of every single public health expert and epidemiologist — that masking is still required in large gatherings, even after vaccine, until we get closer to herd immunity.

 

[havoc315]

If my math is correct the number of Israelites in the hospital on Feb 16th (x) should be:
100/x=1-.985
100/x=0.015
100=0.015x
6,666=x

Am I right?

Also may I point out a vaccinated person in Isreal is more likely to be elderly, a healthcare worker or have Comorbid conditions.

No... that would be if I’m right — a total 98.5% reduction.

If it’s correct that it’s an ADDITIONAL 98.9% reduction AFTER the initial 98.5% reduction...
then it would be ..
100=.015 * .011 * X
so if I’m right... it’s around the 6,660.
if it’s correct that it’s an ADDITIONAL 98.9%..
Then X = 606,000.

So you’re correct— if you’re agreeing with me, that it’s a total hospitalization reduction of 98.9%
You’re incorrect if you’re in the gang claiming it’s an additional 98.9% reduction added to the 98.5% reduction in cases.

 

[MaximumEd]

Some of y’all need to take it to private messages.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

My head hurts. To many numbers for this early in the morning before first cup of coffee.

 

[DisneyCane]

Not downplaying the effectiveness at all. I’ve said all along, they are currently effective enough to eradicate Covid. So I’m extraordinarily optimistic about the vaccines. (Except AZ... I’m pessimistic that AstraZeneca will even get approved).

You seem frustrated by the advice of every single public health expert and epidemiologist — that masking is still required in large gatherings, even after vaccine, until we get closer to herd immunity.

You could have fooled me that your vaccine related posts are optimistic!

My comments aren't really about masks, they are about the "don't get your hopes up for anything resembling normalcy until at least the fall and possibly 2022 even with a highly effective vaccine being given to a million of mostly the most vulnerable people a day" narrative.

 

[_caleb]

So now we’re saying that the deniers and downplayers were just being optimistic all along?

 

[dreday3]

As I'm reading, all I hear in my head is "mehmehmehmehmeh..mehmeh......meh...mehmehmehmehmeh"

 

[havoc315]

You could have fooled me that your vaccine related posts are optimistic!

My comments aren't really about masks, they are about the "don't get your hopes up for anything resembling normalcy until at least the fall and possibly 2022 even with a highly effective vaccine being given to a million of mostly the most vulnerable people a day" narrative.

Correct — don’t expect full capacity gatherings and throwing out masks until the fall. Which is what every expert is saying.

You one of those people who thought Churches would be full by Easter 2020? And then that football stadiums would be full?
Go ahead... Find me 1 actual expert who thinks we can go back to full normal BEFORE late summer/fall?
There will be gradual normalization before then. But you won’t find a single expert who believes we can’t go back to unmasked large gatherings before fall.
(*** with one caveat— we could potentially go back earlier if we adopt vaccination passports mandated for large public gatherings. But that’s not likely happening.)

 

[Touchdown]

No... that would be if I’m right — a total 98.5% reduction.

If it’s correct that it’s an ADDITIONAL 98.9% reduction AFTER the initial 98.5% reduction...
then it would be ..
100=.015 * .011 * X
so if I’m right... it’s around the 6,660.
if it’s correct that it’s an ADDITIONAL 98.9%..
Then X = 606,000.

So you’re correct— if you’re agreeing with me, that it’s a total hospitalization reduction of 98.9%
You’re incorrect if you’re in the gang claiming it’s an additional 98.9% reduction added to the 98.5% reduction in cases.

I think we’re at a misunderstanding. I thought you were arguing the percent hospitalized was determined by taking hospitalized vaccinated people divided by total vaccinated.

 

[havoc315]

I think we’re at a misunderstanding. I thought you were arguing the percent hospitalized was determined by taking hospitalized vaccinated people divided by total vaccinated.

Nope... not what I was saying.

So I think you and I are in basic agreement.

 

[JoeCamel]

It is beyond pedantic at this point, exact numbers always devolve in this conversation

 

[Touchdown]

It’s official, we have a third approved vaccine in the US!

 

[Kevin_W]

You one of those people who thought Churches would be full by Easter 2020?

FWIW, many churches will be full by Easter 2020. My church does not plan to re-open until after Easter at the earliest, but 2 of my sibling's churches have been full for quite a while now and a 3rd sibling just opened last week.

 

[Chi84]

As I'm reading, all I hear in my head is "mehmehmehmehmeh..mehmeh......meh...mehmehmehmehmeh"

And it's not going to end until people stop encouraging it. Just sayin . . .

 

[Epcot_Imagineer]

You can't just determine efficacy or hospitalization/death rates for one vaccine by using ratios from another vaccine... it doesn't make any sense...

 

[GoofGoof]

Not downplaying the effectiveness at all. I’ve said all along, they are currently effective enough to eradicate Covid. So I’m extraordinarily optimistic about the vaccines. (Except AZ... I’m pessimistic that AstraZeneca will even get approved).

You are absolutely downplaying the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing severe illness, hospitalization and death. In your mind I think maybe you think you are being optimistic somehow, but your posts come off very pessimistic. You obviously don’t see that, but it’s true. All 3 of our approved vaccines are highly effective at preventing hospitalization and death. You don’t believe that, but you have not posted a single shred of evidence to support your opinion. Where are the studies showing they aren’t effective? We have thousands of people in clinical trials and millions of people in the real world as examples. I am willing to listen to the evidence that this isn’t true and would be interested to see the studies where they were shown to not be effective. Saying it over and over without any support doesn‘t make it so.