Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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havoc315

Well-Known Member
Kevin_W said:
FWIW, many churches will be full by Easter 2020. My church does not plan to re-open until after Easter at the earliest, but 2 of my sibling's churches have been full for quite a while now and a 3rd sibling just opened last week.
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???? You realize Easter 2020 was almost 11 months ago. For most Americans, their churches still have restricted capacity. And the restrictions on capacity will last quite a bit longer.
 
correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Kevin_W said:
FWIW, many churches will be full by Easter 2020. My church does not plan to re-open until after Easter at the earliest, but 2 of my sibling's churches have been full for quite a while now and a 3rd sibling just opened last week.
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Yes, it's been a loooooong year for 2020 - feels like it will never end ;)

Oh and I so know you made silly mistake and just couldn't resist.

Churches here are not full. They were shut down for Easter last year and will be limited significantly this year. I mean very significantly. We're at like 150 total in a church that would get at least 400-600 per service if my numbers are right. You have to RSVP for ours still as well. We dont' expect a full church for Easter and actually are struggling with baptisms and if it will effectively be a private mass for easter vigil.

It's been rough. I think our church is expecting August 1st for more normalcy.
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
You are absolutely downplaying the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing severe illness, hospitalization and death. In your mind I think maybe you think you are being optimistic somehow, but your posts come off very pessimistic. You obviously don’t see that, but it’s true. All 3 of our approved vaccines are highly effective at preventing hospitalization and death. You don’t believe that, but you have not posted a single shred of evidence to support your opinion. Where are the studies showing they aren’t effective? We have thousands of people in clinical trials and millions of people in the real world as examples. I am willing to listen to the evidence that this isn’t true and would be interested to see the studies where they were shown to not be effective. Saying it over and over without any support doesn‘t make it so.
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We only have 2 approved vaccines. JNJ should be approved very soon, within the next week. And that's precisely what I'm talking about -- It's important to be accurate and truthful. Saying we have 3 approved vaccines is simply wrong. Nothing to do with being optimistic or pessimistic -- it's simply a false statement.

And same with vaccine effectiveness: We know the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are over 95% effective against the earlier variants. That's excellent. That's true. We know JNJ has shown 66% effectiveness in trials -- Again, excellent. But it's also a fact that 66% is far less than 95%.
It's also a fact that much is unknown. That's not optimistic or pessimistic... it's just facts:
1 -- We don't yet know with any statistical certainty the degree to which the vaccines prevent transmission. (As I optimistically said all along, I suspect they do reduce transmission, but we really have no idea by how much).
2 -- We don't know how long any vaccination immunity will last.
3 -- We don't have a very good idea how effective these vaccines are against the South Africa variant
4 -- We don't know whether we will have to deal with any other significant variants that may evade the vaccine in the coming months
5 -- We don't know what portion of the population will voluntarily get vaccinated (we can only estimate a fairly broad range)
6 -- We don't know what percentage of the population will require vaccination to reach herd immunity

None of this is pessimistic or optimistic. They are simply truthful facts. I believe it's important to stick to truthful facts.
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
helenabear said:
Yes, it's been a loooooong year for 2020 - feels like it will never end ;)

Oh and I so know you made silly mistake and just couldn't resist.

Churches here are not full. They were shut down for Easter last year and will be limited significantly this year. I mean very significantly. We're at like 150 total in a church that would get at least 400-600 per service if my numbers are right. You have to RSVP for ours still as well. We dont' expect a full church for Easter and actually are struggling with baptisms and if it will effectively be a private mass for easter vigil.

It's been rough. I think our church is expecting August 1st for more normalcy.
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My daughter's Bat Mitzvah had to be held with only 20 people in the sanctuary and all other guests watching on zoom.
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
Kevin_W said:
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So looking at the data:
In the placebo group, there were 48 infections
In the fully vaccinated group (beyond 28 days for full effectiveness): there were 8 cases of infection

So the reduction from 48 to 8 is statistically significant, and an excellent sign. Even if not as good as Pfizer and Moderna, it's excellent and makes an excellent vaccine.

Now, the reduction in those requiring medical treatment:
In the placebo group, it was 7 out of those 48, meaning 15% of Covid-positive cases needed medical treatment in the placebo group.
In the vaccinated group, it was 0 out of 8.

That data is insufficient to show whether the need for medical treatment is FURTHER reduced in vaccinated Covid-positive cases, or whether it is simply the same reduction as you'd expect based on the reduction in cases).
If it was 70/480 vs 0/80, we would have statistically significant data. But you really can't compare 7 out of 48 with 0 out of 8. Sample size is way too small.
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
dreday3 said:
Is it like this? J&J 91.7% effective for severe Covid after 28 days for (18-59). Less effective for those over 60 (70.3%).
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The numbers are variable on lots of factors, depending on the location of the test (since different locations have different variants)

In the US it had higher efficacy because we have less prevalence of the UK and SA variants. If the UK and SA variants rise in the USA, then the efficacy of the JNJ vaccine will drop accordingly, as in those other countries.
 
DisneyDebRob

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
My daughter's Bat Mitzvah had to be held with only 20 people in the sanctuary and all other guests watching on zoom.
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We just had a service Monday for my second uncle that passed away from Covid. Strict restrictions on the church seating.. very minimal with only his brothers and sister and their families allowed in. Was surreal.
 
D

DCBaker

Premium Member
DCL update -

"Disney Cruise Line Coronavirus (COVID-19) Travel Alert

February 24, 2021

Disney Cruise Line Extends Suspension of All Departures Through May 2021 and Disney Magic Sailings Through August 10

Our team at Disney Cruise Line remains focused on the health and well-being of our Guests and team members. We are carefully preparing for a return to service following the guidelines issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

As we continue to refine our protocols and await further technical guidance from the CDC, we are cancelling all sailings departing through May 2021.

Disney Magic European Season

Given the likelihood of international borders remaining closed for an extended period of time, we have also made the decision to cancel Disney Magic sailings through August 10, 2021.

Canada Departures

In light of the Canadian government’s announcement that they will not allow ships with more than 100 passengers to dock in any Canadian port until February 28, 2022, we are evaluating various options for the Disney Wonder’s scheduled season in Alaska. Once a decision is made, we will reach out to Guests booked on these sailings.

Additionally, as previously shared, based on the conditional sail order provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Disney Cruise Line must cancel sailings longer than 7 nights.

Guests booked on affected sailings, who have paid their reservation in full, will be offered the choice of a cruise credit to be used for a future sailing or a full refund. Guests, who have not paid their reservations in full, will automatically receive a refund of what they have paid so far. Affected Guests and travel agents will receive an email from Disney Cruise Line outlining details and next steps.

Guests who've booked their reservation through a travel agent should contact them directly with any questions. Those who have booked directly with Disney Cruise Line, and have questions after receiving their email, should call (866) 325-6685 or (407) 566-7797."

https://disneycruise.disney.go.com/guest-services/advisory/
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
No... you have it wrong. Both sets of numbers are in comparison to the control group. It’s not “among infected, there was a 98.9% reduction in hospitalization”— it was a sum total reduction of 98.9%

Which is quite consistent with a 98.5% reduction in infection.

And quite consistent with the charts and raw numbers of vaccinated people in Israel still hospitalized. (I posted the raw numbers yesterday).
You’re an order of magnitude off.

From a recent analysis in Israel:

“Among the vaccinated individuals, 31,810 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 1,525 were hospitalized or died”

www.google.com

How effective has the COVID-19 vaccination program been in Israel?

Using publicly available coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) data from Israel, a study suggests the BioNTech-Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine is proving highly effective in the real world.
www.google.com www.google.com

So 1 in 20 positive cases in vaccinated individuals still end up hospitalized or dead.

Now, there are FAR fewer positive cases among the vaccinated. So that leads to far fewer hospitalizations and deaths. But it’s not a 98% reduction with another 98% improvement multiplied on top of that. It’s a single 98% improvement.
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I agree.

The positive is that the vaccines reduces the number of cases proportionally. For example: If 100 people in vaccinated group got covid and 80 were hospitalized. One might infer that the vaccine protects people prone to non serious covid better than the people prone to serious.

As it is it looks like the vaccines ( Both Pfizer and Moderna) protects almost equally well against getting covid whether one would have gotten serious or non serious covid.
 
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GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
havoc315 said:
We only have 2 approved vaccines. JNJ should be approved very soon, within the next week. And that's precisely what I'm talking about -- It's important to be accurate and truthful. Saying we have 3 approved vaccines is simply wrong. Nothing to do with being optimistic or pessimistic -- it's simply a false statement.

And same with vaccine effectiveness: We know the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are over 95% effective against the earlier variants. That's excellent. That's true. We know JNJ has shown 66% effectiveness in trials -- Again, excellent. But it's also a fact that 66% is far less than 95%.
It's also a fact that much is unknown. That's not optimistic or pessimistic... it's just facts:
1 -- We don't yet know with any statistical certainty the degree to which the vaccines prevent transmission. (As I optimistically said all along, I suspect they do reduce transmission, but we really have no idea by how much).
2 -- We don't know how long any vaccination immunity will last.
3 -- We don't have a very good idea how effective these vaccines are against the South Africa variant
4 -- We don't know whether we will have to deal with any other significant variants that may evade the vaccine in the coming months
5 -- We don't know what portion of the population will voluntarily get vaccinated (we can only estimate a fairly broad range)
6 -- We don't know what percentage of the population will require vaccination to reach herd immunity

None of this is pessimistic or optimistic. They are simply truthful facts. I believe it's important to stick to truthful facts.
Click to expand...
They are approving JnJ as we speak. Now that the data is out officially it’s a formality. Nothing to stop it now but if you believe it won’t be approved I will gladly take that bet.

Just my 2 cents: listing out all of the possible ways that the vaccine rollout could fail is being overly pessimistic. That’s my opinion of course so it can’t be right or wrong. Only listing negative “facts” is by definition being pessimistic. You do you. Nothing you have said so far changes my belief that the vaccines were highly effective against hospitalization and death. Some of those things you listed will never be known. There can always be a new variant or immunity could fade over time. Should the plan be to continue as we are today forever just in case?

My simple solution is this, once everyone has access to the vaccine they start rolling back covid restrictions. Anyone who has been vaccinated but feels the vaccines are not effective can choose to stay home, avoid crowds, and wear a mask still. Nobody will be forced to stop doing those things. There’s no reason to ask people to continue as if nothing has changed once the vaccine is rolled out.
 
DisneyDebRob

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
DCBaker said:
DCL update -

"Disney Cruise Line Coronavirus (COVID-19) Travel Alert

February 24, 2021

Disney Cruise Line Extends Suspension of All Departures Through May 2021 and Disney Magic Sailings Through August 10

Our team at Disney Cruise Line remains focused on the health and well-being of our Guests and team members. We are carefully preparing for a return to service following the guidelines issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

As we continue to refine our protocols and await further technical guidance from the CDC, we are cancelling all sailings departing through May 2021.

Disney Magic European Season

Given the likelihood of international borders remaining closed for an extended period of time, we have also made the decision to cancel Disney Magic sailings through August 10, 2021.

Canada Departures

In light of the Canadian government’s announcement that they will not allow ships with more than 100 passengers to dock in any Canadian port until February 28, 2022, we are evaluating various options for the Disney Wonder’s scheduled season in Alaska. Once a decision is made, we will reach out to Guests booked on these sailings.

Additionally, as previously shared, based on the conditional sail order provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Disney Cruise Line must cancel sailings longer than 7 nights.

Guests booked on affected sailings, who have paid their reservation in full, will be offered the choice of a cruise credit to be used for a future sailing or a full refund. Guests, who have not paid their reservations in full, will automatically receive a refund of what they have paid so far. Affected Guests and travel agents will receive an email from Disney Cruise Line outlining details and next steps.

Guests who've booked their reservation through a travel agent should contact them directly with any questions. Those who have booked directly with Disney Cruise Line, and have questions after receiving their email, should call (866) 325-6685 or (407) 566-7797."

https://disneycruise.disney.go.com/guest-services/advisory/
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Saw this coming a year ago. It’s a shame but need to be safe about starting DCL up again.
 
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