Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

you share optimisms of any sort? I’ve yet to see it. I’m just going to mute you, I really don’t care to try to sway your opinion, be negative as much as you want. People who actually know what they’re talking about are optimistic about this year and so am I

Your biases are showing.
Let’s see...optimistic things I’ve said just today:

“If we are in July and 75% of Americans have gotten vaccinated, and we are down to under 50 deaths per day, mostly occurring in traceable clusters, then I can certainly see tossing masks in the garbage by August or September.”

“I agree that numbers will likely be greatly improved by June”

“With a vaccine.... proper adoption of the vaccine, and mitigation measures for the proper amount of time... Not saying we will get Covid down to 0, but pretty darn close to it.”

“To be honest, I really think October could be maskless.”

“July seems to be a realistic benchmark for when we get to a level of 70%-ish vaccination”

“Not sure travel recommendations will change yet, but I bet they change by late Spring.”

“Some good news... looks like Moderna and Pfizer will be significantly increased production and release of vaccine doses. JNJ looks to deliver 20 million by the end of March, and 25 million+ per month from April - June. This is excellent news, call for cautious optimism”

Hmmm... that’s just today. Seems like a lot of optimism I’ve shared. But you’re hell bent on attacking any warnings of caution. You only want to hear unrealistic statements that everything will be totally normal by June.

 

[Chi84]

We can agree to disagree. The study was released and it doesn‘t say anywhere that the odds of avoiding hospitalization is only slightly better if you are vaccinated. JnJ was also highly effective in their trial at preventing death and hospitalization. Not sure why you are hell bent on discrediting these vaccines. They work well and that’s a great thing.

Something broke in this thread when you weren’t looking . .

 

[Touchdown]

It says it in the very first paragraph.
“their risk of illness from the coronavirus drop 98.5% and their risk of hospitalization drop 98.9%,”

In other words, risk of hospitalization was reduced only slightly more than the risk of illness.

Yes — your risk of hospitalization is way down. because your risk of illness is way down!

But among those who still do get ill with the vaccine.. within that subgroup, their risk of hospitalization is only slightly better.

It’s right there in black and white.

Simplifying it even more.
In the non-vaccinated group... if 100,000 people get ill, and 10,000 need hospitalization..
Applying the Israel stats.. it would mean 1500 vaccinated people get ill. (A 98.5% reduction). And 110 vaccinated people get hospitalized (a 98.9% reduction).

So among non-vaccinated... in this illustration, 1 out of 10 ill patients end up in the hospital. Among vaccinated patients, 1 out of every 14 ill patients ends up in the Hospital.

Again, it’s right there in the first paragraph if you understand basic statistics.

You’re misrepresenting these numbers, the percent you quote is determined by taking 1 and subtracting the amount of an event occurring in the trial arm divided by the amount of event occurring in the control group. So if hospitalizations in a group 1000 unvaccinated people is 100, if the risk is reduced by 98.9% for vaccinated people that means 1 person in the trial arm of 1000 people got hospitalized.

You seem to think the percent is derived from taking the amount of events occurring in the trial arm divided by total people in the trial arm. That would mean for a group of 1000 12 people are hospitalized. That’s a whole order of magnitude wrong. You are inadvertently sensationalizing the data.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

You only want to hear unrealistic statements that everything will be totally normal by June.

Certainly I’m not the only one who isn’t expecting things to ever get back to “normal.” I’m sure that masks will go away and capacity will go up in theaters again but I think the world has significantly changed. The way that people travel, go out to eat, see movies and concerts, etc.

 

[disneycp]

It says it in the very first paragraph.
“their risk of illness from the coronavirus drop 98.5% and their risk of hospitalization drop 98.9%,”

In other words, risk of hospitalization was reduced only slightly more than the risk of illness.

Yes — your risk of hospitalization is way down. because your risk of illness is way down!

But among those who still do get ill with the vaccine.. within that subgroup, their risk of hospitalization is only slightly better.

It’s right there in black and white.

Simplifying it even more.
In the non-vaccinated group... if 100,000 people get ill, and 10,000 need hospitalization..
Applying the Israel stats.. it would mean 1500 vaccinated people get ill. (A 98.5% reduction). And 110 vaccinated people get hospitalized (a 98.9% reduction).

So among non-vaccinated... in this illustration, 1 out of 10 ill patients end up in the hospital. Among vaccinated patients, 1 out of every 14 ill patients ends up in the Hospital.

Again, it’s right there in the first paragraph if you understand basic statistics.

this...makes absolutely no sense. Are you okay?

 

[havoc315]

You’re misrepresenting these numbers, the percent you quote is determined by taking 1 and subtracting the amount of an event occurring in the trial arm divided by the amount of event occurring in the control group. So if hospitalizations in a group 1000 unvaccinated people is 100, if the risk is reduced by 98.9% for vaccinated people that means 1 person in the trial arm of 1000 people got hospitalized.

You seem to think the percent is derived from taking the amount of events occurring in the trial arm divided by total people in the trial arm. That would mean for a group of 1000 12 people are hospitalized. That’s a whole order of magnitude wrong. You are inadvertently sensationalizing the data.

No... you have it wrong. Both sets of numbers are in comparison to the control group. It’s not “among infected, there was a 98.9% reduction in hospitalization”— it was a sum total reduction of 98.9%

Which is quite consistent with a 98.5% reduction in infection.

And quite consistent with the charts and raw numbers of vaccinated people in Israel still hospitalized. (I posted the raw numbers yesterday).
You’re an order of magnitude off.

From a recent analysis in Israel:

“Among the vaccinated individuals, 31,810 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 1,525 were hospitalized or died”

How effective has the COVID-19 vaccination program been in Israel?

Using publicly available coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) data from Israel, a study suggests the BioNTech-Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine is proving highly effective in the real world.

www.google.com

So 1 in 20 positive cases in vaccinated individuals still end up hospitalized or dead.

Now, there are FAR fewer positive cases among the vaccinated. So that leads to far fewer hospitalizations and deaths. But it’s not a 98% reduction with another 98% improvement multiplied on top of that. It’s a single 98% improvement.

 

[havoc315]

this...makes absolutely no sense. Are you okay?

Ahhh... it’s called basic math. It’s entirely accurate.

 

[disneycp]

No... you have it wrong. Both sets of numbers are in comparison to the control group. It’s not “among infected, there was a 98.9% reduction in hospitalization”— it was a sum total reduction of 98.9%

Which is quite consistent with a 98.5% reduction in infection.

And quite consistent with the charts and raw numbers of vaccinated people in Israel still hospitalized. (I posted the raw numbers yesterday).
You’re an order of magnitude off.

From a recent analysis in Israel:

“Among the vaccinated individuals, 31,810 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 1,525 were hospitalized or died”

How effective has the COVID-19 vaccination program been in Israel?

Using publicly available coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) data from Israel, a study suggests the BioNTech-Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine is proving highly effective in the real world.

www.google.com

So 1 in 20 positive cases in vaccinated individuals still end up hospitalized or dead.

Now, there are FAR fewer positive cases among the vaccinated. So that leads to far fewer hospitalizations and deaths. But it’s not a 98% reduction with another 98% improvement multiplied on top of that. It’s a single 98% improvement.

I’m not really sure what your point is. That a 98% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths isn’t enough? Also, I hate to sound crass, but people die. When you’re looking at a pool of millions of people, some of them are going to die no matter what. In the article you’re quoting, millions of people were vaccinated, a small fraction of those people tested positive for Covid, and an even smaller fraction unfortunately had bad outcomes. No one said the vaccines were full proof

 

[correcaminos]

Let's use fully vaccinated data from Isreal, not a hodge podge of info:

An Israeli healthcare provider that has vaccinated half a million people with both doses of the Pfizer vaccine says that only 544 people — or 0.1% — have been subsequently diagnosed with the coronavirus, there have been four severe cases, and no people have died

She stressed that among those who have vaccinated and become infected, the vast majority have experienced the coronavirus lightly. Out of the 523,000 fully vaccinated people, 544 were infected with COVID-19, of whom 15 needed hospitalization: Eight are in mild condition, three in moderate condition, and four in severe condition.

It works: 0 deaths, only 4 severe cases among 523,000 fully vaccinated Israelis

HMO data a week after 2nd dose shows 93% effectiveness, ‘unequivocally' proving vaccine's success and leaving ‘no doubt’ it’s saved many Israeli lives, says Maccabi official

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[disneycp]

In the non-vaccinated group... if 100,000 people get ill, and 10,000 need hospitalization..
Applying the Israel stats.. it would mean 1500 vaccinated people get ill. (A 98.5% reduction). And 110 vaccinated people get hospitalized (a 98.9% reduction).

So among non-vaccinated... in this illustration, 1 out of 10 ill patients end up in the hospital. Among vaccinated patients, 1 out of every 14 ill patients ends up in the Hospital.

so in your example, 100,000 non-vaccinated people become ill and 10,000 of them need to be hospitalized (or 1/10) and 1500 vaccinated people become ill and 110 of them need to be hospitalized (or roughly 1/13). And you’re saying it’s not very good because 1/10 is close to 1/13...? That ignores the fact that the denominators (of people becoming ill in the first place) are completely different.

 

[havoc315]

I’m not really sure what your point is. That a 98% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths isn’t enough? Also, I hate to sound crass, but people die. When you’re looking at a pool of millions of people, some of them are going to die no matter what. In the article you’re quoting, millions of people were vaccinated, a small fraction of those people tested positive for Covid, and an even smaller fraction unfortunately had bad outcomes. No one said the vaccines were full proof

No... a 98% reduction is FANTASTIC!!!
It can put us on the pathway to eradicating Covid.
But people are acting like they become invincible if they get a vaccine. That’s not true. And that’s why the goal isn’t just to make vaccines available — it’s to make sure enough people actually get vaccinated in a timely fashion. which we can — and must — do over the next 4-6 months, which will bring herd immunity.. which will effectively reduce Covid to isolated outbreaks. Which will allow a return to general normalcy.

 

[disneycp]

No... a 98% reduction is FANTASTIC!!!
It can put us on the pathway to eradicating Covid.
But people are acting like they become invincible if they get a vaccine. That’s not true. And that’s why the goal isn’t just to make vaccines available — it’s to make sure enough people actually get vaccinated in a timely fashion. which we can — and must — do over the next 4-6 months, which will bring herd immunity.. which will effectively reduce Covid to isolated outbreaks. Which will allow a return to general normalcy.

No arguments here. I’m all for everyone being vaccinated

 

[havoc315]

so in your example, 10,000/100,000 non-vaccinated people need to be hospitalized (or 1/10) and 110/1500 vaccinated people need to be hospitalized (or roughly 1/13). And you’re saying it’s not very good because 1/10 is close to 1/13...? That ignores the fact that the denominators (of people becoming ill in the first place) are completely different.

Huh? No... it’s fantastic.
But it’s due to the reduction in illness. Less illness = less hospitalization.
For those that do get ill, they are almost as likely to need hospitalization as someone who is ill and unvaccinated.

There is a false narrative going around that the vaccines entirely eliminate any risk of getting hospitalized. In fact, the reduction of hospitalization risk is about the same as the reduction in illness risk — 98% in Israel, with the Pfizer vaccine, in the first 1-2 months after vaccination.

 

[havoc315]

Let's use fully vaccinated data from Isreal, not a hodge podge of info:

An Israeli healthcare provider that has vaccinated half a million people with both doses of the Pfizer vaccine says that only 544 people — or 0.1% — have been subsequently diagnosed with the coronavirus, there have been four severe cases, and no people have died

She stressed that among those who have vaccinated and become infected, the vast majority have experienced the coronavirus lightly. Out of the 523,000 fully vaccinated people, 544 were infected with COVID-19, of whom 15 needed hospitalization: Eight are in mild condition, three in moderate condition, and four in severe condition.

It works: 0 deaths, only 4 severe cases among 523,000 fully vaccinated Israelis

HMO data a week after 2nd dose shows 93% effectiveness, ‘unequivocally' proving vaccine's success and leaving ‘no doubt’ it’s saved many Israeli lives, says Maccabi official

www.timesofisrael.com

So among those vaccinated, 544 infections.

With a non-vaccinated IFR of about 0.5% of deaths, we’d expect 3 of those people to die. So far, 0 deaths in that group. VERY promising... but the difference between 3 and 0 isnt big enough for high statistical confidence.

And among that group, the hospitalization rate is 3%. I forget what the hospitalization rate overall for Covid is in Israel, but I believe it was 4-5% of Covid cases result in hospitalization. So 3% would represent a slightly lower hospitalization rate among Covid positive cases.

 

[JoeCamel]

I'm gonna wear out my scroll wheel on this thread......

 

[Touchdown]

No... you have it wrong. Both sets of numbers are in comparison to the control group. From a recent analysis in Israel:

“Among the vaccinated individuals, 31,810 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 1,525 were hospitalized or died”

From that study 3,082,190 people had been vaccinated. That means in the trial arm the amount of people who got Covid after beginning vaccination was 1.03% and the hospitalization rate was 0.05%. I sadly couldn’t find the control numbers, but as you can see I was right, they are comparing the control rate of infection/hospitalizations and the trial arm. The real numbers are right there.

That article also doesn’t post the raw numbers for people starting 1 week after your second shot and I can’t read Hebrew but the numbers are going to be incredibly low.

Finally, if you look at vaccinated people hospitalized with Covid % compared to vaccinated people who got Covid that rate is 4.8%. Historically for non vaccinated people that rate is approximately 10-20%. So the vaccine decreases hospitalization rates at a larger rate then the infections it reduces.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I plan on getting the vaccine also but the problem I see with the vaccine passport is how does a company enforce it?

The government has direct access to medical records so it’s easy for them to verify vaccinations, Disney doesn’t have access to medical records so they’d have to take your word for it, require a paper form (could be easily forged), or require a digital form (potentially opening themselves to discrimination lawsuits since not everyone has a cell phone). They already have a hard enough time fighting abuse of the disability access cards, I just don’t see them taking on the headache that would be involved with verifying hundreds of thousands of guests a day.

FYI, the governement does NOT have direct access to medical records, other than death certificates and certain reportable diseases.

 

[Heppenheimer]

you share optimisms of any sort? I’ve yet to see it. I’m just going to mute you, I really don’t care to try to sway your opinion, be negative as much as you want. People who actually know what they’re talking about are optimistic about this year and so am I

We can be optimistic and cautious at the same time.

 

[havoc315]

From that study 3,082,190 people had been vaccinated. That means in the trial arm the amount of people who got Covid after beginning vaccination was 1.03% and the hospitalization rate was 0.05%. I sadly couldn’t find the control numbers, but as you can see I was right, they are comparing the control rate of infection/hospitalizations and the trial arm. The real numbers are right there.

That article also doesn’t post the raw numbers for people starting 1 week after your second shot and I can’t read Hebrew but the numbers are going to be incredibly low.

Finally, if you look at vaccinated people hospitalized with Covid % compared to vaccinated people who got Covid that rate is 4.8%. Historically for non vaccinated people that rate is approximately 20%. So the vaccine decreases hospitalization rates at a larger rate then the infections it reduces.

What are you talking about?? The numbers you just posted prove I was right:
Covid rate amount vaccinated people: 1%
Hospitalization rate after vaccination: .05%
—- 1 in 20 Covid-positive still hospitalized!

If you were right — 98.5% reduction in cases. AND among the cases, a 98.9% reduction in hospitalization ... that would mean a 99.9835% total reduction in hospitalization with vaccination.

And none of the raw numbers are consistent with a 99.9835% reduction in hospitalization. Unless 500% of non-vaccinated people are currently in the hospital with Covid.

 

[Touchdown]

What are you talking about?? The numbers you just posted prove I was right:
Covid rate amount vaccinated people: 1%
Hospitalization rate after vaccination: .05%
—- 1 in 20 Covid-positive still hospitalized!

If you were right — 98.5% reduction in cases. AND among the cases, a 98.9% reduction in hospitalization ... that would mean a 99.9835% total reduction in hospitalization with vaccination.

And none of the raw numbers are consistent with a 99.9835% reduction in hospitalization. Unless 500% of non-vaccinated people are currently in the hospital with Covid.

Of people who started Covid vaccination, not people who finished.

And again that is 1 in 20 of the unfortunate 1 in 100 who got Covid, most of which occurred before they finished the series.