Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

I assume you have well intentions with this post.

no doubt the majority of covid victims recover, and this isn’t an “I am Legend” level viral apocalypse. At the same time, it’s still a novel virus, a pandemic, and something that demands respect and caution. As well as our part to protect those who could die easily from it.

Yes nothing but good intentions. Not even trying to advocate how to interpret the data.
Covid-19 does not have a kill rate like some virus (Smallpox was in it's day 30% kill rate, Ebola for a while was 90%,). But it kills and it is useful(to me) to see what is it's death rate and what that is compared to other cause or causes.

As Pfizer said the chance of dying of covid in the next 6 months is about 1 in 1000. People die all of the time. Sooner or later we all do. But before this year the chance of dying of covid in USA was 0 in 1000.

I just posted data to provide something to compare it to.

 

[BrianLo]

I agree with your perspective. But there is value in seeing that one specific disease (Covid-19) is almost culpable to half as many deaths as all forms of cancer combined. It is also good to know it is not twice as much as all cancers combined.

Apologies if that was a tad snappy. It has been used by some social media circles as a means of minimizing the problem. I see now you weren't intending to minimize things.

The other way of looking at it like you said is that we have something brand new on the scene that is at least half as deadly as cancer (and more so because most of the world is trying actively to prevent it). I think rightfully most see that as a big deal.

 

[IanDLBZF]

ICYMI, Disney sent an update regarding New Year's Eve Plans via eMail.
This is what I got:

Update for New Year’s Eve Everyone here at Walt Disney World® Resort is looking forward to welcoming you at The Most Magical Place on Earth. As we continue to celebrate the season and enjoy the splendor of the holidays, we’d like to share information about this year’s New Year’s Eve activities. All four Walt Disney World Theme Parks as well as Disney Springs are decorated for the season and feature extended operating hours. On New Year’s Eve, however, these locations will close prior to midnight as we continue to follow health and safety measures put in place during our phased reopening to help foster physical distancing. New Year’s Eve Hours of Operation * Magic Kingdom, 8:00 am – 11:00 pm * Epcot, 10:00 am – 10:00 pm * Disney’s Hollywood Studios, 9:00 am – 9:00 pm * Disney’s Animal Kingdom Theme Park, 7:00 am – 8:00 pm * Disney Springs, 10:00 am – 11:00 pm Your Disney Resort hotel will offer fun and festive activities. Full details will be provided upon arrival. Additionally, pre-recorded fireworks and other holiday offerings will be available to stream on in-room televisions to help you ring in the new year. You can even purchase a New Year’s Eve party basket designed for the occasion. View details or call your Travel Professional. From all of us to all of you, Happy New Year, and may 2021 be your most magical year yet!​

 

[BrianLo]

LA county had more cases today then the whole state of Florida. I really don’t understand it. It’s been a bit now since Cali “shut down” again. Are people there really still partying in houses, or what is going on???

It has only been a week in California. It will take about 2 to see the measures actually doing something.

I think what we've largely witnessed this past week is Thanksgiving's impact on cases, the acceleration for California has been quite a bit worse than other states from the holidays.

 

[DCBaker]

"The Food and Drug Administration authorized Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use on Friday, according to two people with knowledge of the decision who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it. The action means millions of highly vulnerable people will begin receiving the vaccine within days."

F.D.A. Clears Pfizer Vaccine, and Millions of Doses Will Be Shipped Right Away (Published 2020)

An initial shipment of about 2.9 million doses of the vaccine will be sent around the United States over the next week.

t.co

From the FDA -

"Having concluded that the criteria for issuance of this authorization under Section 564(c) of the Act are met, I am authorizing the emergency use of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID‑19 Vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19, as described in the Scope of Authorization section of this letter (Section II) and subject to the terms of this authorization."

https://www.fda.gov/media/144412/download

 

[Slpy3270]

From the FDA -

"Having concluded that the criteria for issuance of this authorization under Section 564(c) of the Act are met, I am authorizing the emergency use of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID‑19 Vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19, as described in the Scope of Authorization section of this letter (Section II) and subject to the terms of this authorization."

https://www.fda.gov/media/144412/download

The beginning of the beginning of the beginning of the end.

Redundant, yes, but I'm just making a point. We aren't out of the woods for a while.

 

[GoofGoof]

LA county had more cases today then the whole state of Florida. I really don’t understand it. It’s been a bit now since Cali “shut down” again. Are people there really still partying in houses, or what is going on???

It’s been a week since they put the stay at home orders in. These things aren’t instantaneous or completely linear. In France the number of cases dropped dramatically in November once restrictions were put back in place but it took 3 or 4 weeks to see the results. Now after relaxing some restrictions they are seeing a plateau of cases and pausing their pull back again. Once community spread gets too bad it’s hard to get cases back down and it’s definitely not going to happen in a week.

 

[GoofGoof]

ICYMI, Disney sent an update regarding New Year's Eve Plans via eMail.
This is what I got:

I think that’s a pretty smart move to make sure expectations are set well in advance for anyone going that there won’t be anything happening at the parks. It’s also wise to have the activity at the resorts instead as they can utilize the outdoor areas like the pools and pool decks and maybe even the outdoor movie screens used at some resorts. It won’t be the same as past years but it’s something.

 

[jmp85]

Haven’t you heard? “Disney is a business”

Of course so was Enron, and we see what happened to them when they put profits first but what do I know... *sips tea*

Comparing Disney to Enron makes no sense except on a message board.

 

[WDWTrojan]

It’s been a week since they put the stay at home orders in. These things aren’t instantaneous or completely linear. In France the number of cases dropped dramatically in November once restrictions were put back in place but it took 3 or 4 weeks to see the results. Now after relaxing some restrictions they are seeing a plateau of cases and pausing their pull back again. Once community spread gets too bad it’s hard to get cases back down and it’s definitely not going to happen in a week.

Also, for most of Florida, the weather has been unseasonably temperate, leading people to being outside more (dining, bars, etc). In most of SoCal, the weather has been cool dipping into the 40s and 50s at night, leading to many people staying indoors more. Meanwhile, back in the summer, when it was too hot to be outside in Florida and other Sun Belt states, the cases swelled like crazy.

Weather is a big factor in this.

 

[jmp85]

Between Pfizer and Moderna that‘s 150M people vaccinated by the end of June and that doesn’t include any additional doses from the Pfizer option which would likely get us north of 200M people, and that’s without JnJ or AstraZeneca. Still lots of hurdles to clear but looking good on the vaccine front.

Goof, doesn't that almost cover us for everyone who is currently approved to receive the vaccine? Looks like there about 200M adults in the U.S. It's my understanding it will be a little bit before those under 16 will be able to get the vaccine due to the study not including many in that age group. It seems like the 200M alone would get us fairly close to "normal." Just trying to cling to every bit of optimism I can!

 

[GoofGoof]

Goof, doesn't that almost cover us for everyone who is currently approved to receive the vaccine? Looks like there about 200M adults in the U.S. It's my understanding it will be a little bit before those under 16 will be able to get the vaccine due to the study not including many in that age group. It seems like the 200M alone would get us fairly close to "normal." Just trying to cling to every bit of optimism I can!

It really could. We don‘t know for sure what percent we need to hit for herd immunity. The initial estimates were anywhere from 40-60% immune. Based on a population of 330M and vaccines that were 95% effective in trials (assuming that holds) then we need roughly somewhere between 140M and 210M people to get those vaccines. So even if it’s in the high end with 200M people getting these vaccines at 95% effective that’s 190M people or 58% immune. That’s a pretty good start.

Another way to look at this is if we ignore the 16 and 17 year olds for a second there are roughly 250M adults (18+) in the US. If the vaccines aren‘t approved for children anyway that leaves enough vaccine for 80% of adults. Even the most optimistic polls still show a 15 - 20% group who won’t get the vaccine no matter what so basically enough vaccine for everyone else. Once kids get approved then we have to share with them

Herd immunity essentially means an r naught under 1 so each infected person infects less than 1 other person and eventually the cases spiral down to near zero. Even if we don’t reach pure herd immunity it’s still likely to see cases heading down and we could even get to the point where other restrictions could be loosened. Maybe masks are still around but almost all businesses could be open and with less restrictions. Plus as the first 200M people vaccinated prove that the vaccine isn’t evil or dangerous many of the rest will likely want to get it and we will hit herd immunity eventually.

 

[GoofGoof]

Also, for most of Florida, the weather has been unseasonably temperate, leading people to being outside more (dining, bars, etc). In most of SoCal, the weather has been cool dipping into the 40s and 50s at night, leading to many people staying indoors more. Meanwhile, back in the summer, when it was too hot to be outside in Florida and other Sun Belt states, the cases swelled like crazy.

Weather is a big factor in this.

That is the part of the natural waves the virus runs in. That’s why it’s not a great idea for FL to take a victory lap again...last time that happened was in May before the summer surge and that didn’t turn out so well. Also, FL is back up in the 10,000 cases a day range and 7-8% positive. It’s not like they are seeing a valley like NY/NJ this summer where cases bottomed out and % positive was under 2. Let’s hope the vaccine starts making a dent before a true 2nd wave hits there. That could be a real disaster.

 

[Disney Experience]

I think as the most at risk get vaccinated the covid deaths will go from a trailing indicator (Since prople who die, die well after initial date of infection) to a leading indicator (Because the%change in deaths will lead the % change in infections). Hope to see that in the next few months.

 

[IanDLBZF]

I think that’s a pretty smart move to make sure expectations are set well in advance for anyone going that there won’t be anything happening at the parks. It’s also wise to have the activity at the resorts instead as they can utilize the outdoor areas like the pools and pool decks and maybe even the outdoor movie screens used at some resorts. It won’t be the same as past years but it’s something.

It is.

 

[seascape]

I think as the most at risk get vaccinated the covid deaths will go from a trailing indicator (Since prople who die, die well after initial date of infection) to a leading indicator (Because the%change in deaths will lead the % change in infections). Hope to see that in the next few months.

The vaccinations will reduce the number of cases. At first that will mean the death rate will go up. Remember the number of deaths today has nothing to do with today's new infections, but prior infections. Thanks to Operation Warp speed we have an approved vaccine and delivery system setup. All we need is to let the system rum and in 4 months we will be fine with over 70% of the population vaccinated or with natural antibodies. Who coupld have predicted this tremendous advancement in science, of yes Donald Trump kept saying we would have the vaccine be the end of the year.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

The vaccinations will reduce the number of cases. At first that will mean the death rate will go up. Remember the number of deaths today has nothing to do with today's new infections, but prior infections. Thanks to Operation Warp speed we have an approved vaccine and delivery system setup. All we need is to let the system rum and in 4 months we will be fine with over 70% of the population vaccinated or with natural antibodies. Who coupld have predicted this tremendous advancement in science, of yes Donald Trump kept saying we would have the vaccine be the end of the year.

In august he said it would be September.. in September he said in a few weeks, October the latest.. in October he said this is all fake news, it will be announced the day after election and the vaccine would be available.. after the election he started his talk of a rigged election for over a month with no talk about the vaccine until he saw it was ready to be approved, now calling it the trump vaccine. Please don’t pick and choose one thing he said and conveniently forget the rest.
As for Warp Speed, there are many bugs with the process as said in this article. I realize this is new stuff and it’s going to take time but it’s another thing our leader has exaggerated on and flat out lied.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/05/operation-warp-speed-coronavirus-vaccine-shortfall/%3foutputType=amp

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No. Because Walt Disney World being open is not the problem.

Nonessential travel is a bad idea. I don’t see how that’s debatable now?

it encourages travel from different parts of the country.

Yep

 

[mmascari]

When do we reach the point where the testing cannot keep up with the new cases, or have we already reached that point?

March.

Except in very limited places, the percent positive never got below 5%. An indication that we’re not doing enough contact tracing and not doing enough testing of contacts. Definitely never got that low in FL.

So either the tracing was missing, so no demand for testing. Or contacts were unable to get tests because of lack of capacity. Those slow tests that took 7+ days for results were practically useless.

Maybe both. We’ve clearly never had enough useful testing capacity and availability.

 

[seascape]

In august he said it would be September.. in September he said in a few weeks, October the latest.. in October he said this is all fake news, it will be announced the day after election and the vaccine would be available.. after the election he started his talk of a rigged election for over a month with no talk about the vaccine until he saw it was ready to be approved, now calling it the trump vaccine. Please don’t pick and choose one thing he said and conveniently forget the rest.
As for Warp Speed, there are many bugs with the process as said in this article. I realize this is new stuff and it’s going to take time but it’s another thing our leader has exaggerated on and flat out lied.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/05/operation-warp-speed-coronavirus-vaccine-shortfall/%3foutputType=amp

The vaccine was invented in January, before the first case in the US. Trump kept telling everyone to work faster on getting approval. What we really need is a faster testing and approval process. Trump pushed the limits to the breaking point but look at the number of people who died. Even Bill Gates says there has to be a way to approve vaccines faster because we were lucky the death rate on Covid19 is low. Imagine what could happed in the future if we have an easily spread virus with a high death. We can't wait a year to use a vaccine on these new viruses. Something has to be done or next time we will lose tens of million not hunreds of thousands. Give Trump credit but say we still need to do more.