I agree with your perspective. But there is value in seeing that one specific disease (Covid-19) is almost culpable to half as many deaths as all forms of cancer combined. It is also good to know it is not twice as much as all cancers combined.
Yes nothing but good intentions. Not even trying to advocate how to interpret the data.
From the FDA -"The Food and Drug Administration authorized Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use on Friday, according to two people with knowledge of the decision who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it. The action means millions of highly vulnerable people will begin receiving the vaccine within days."
F.D.A. Clears Pfizer Vaccine, and Millions of Doses Will Be Shipped Right Away (Published 2020)
An initial shipment of about 2.9 million doses of the vaccine will be sent around the United States over the next week.t.co
The beginning of the beginning of the beginning of the end.
It’s been a week since they put the stay at home orders in. These things aren’t instantaneous or completely linear. In France the number of cases dropped dramatically in November once restrictions were put back in place but it took 3 or 4 weeks to see the results. Now after relaxing some restrictions they are seeing a plateau of cases and pausing their pull back again. Once community spread gets too bad it’s hard to get cases back down and it’s definitely not going to happen in a week.
I think that’s a pretty smart move to make sure expectations are set well in advance for anyone going that there won’t be anything happening at the parks. It’s also wise to have the activity at the resorts instead as they can utilize the outdoor areas like the pools and pool decks and maybe even the outdoor movie screens used at some resorts. It won’t be the same as past years but it’s something.
It really could. We don‘t know for sure what percent we need to hit for herd immunity. The initial estimates were anywhere from 40-60% immune. Based on a population of 330M and vaccines that were 95% effective in trials (assuming that holds) then we need roughly somewhere between 140M and 210M people to get those vaccines. So even if it’s in the high end with 200M people getting these vaccines at 95% effective that’s 190M people or 58% immune. That’s a pretty good start.
That is the part of the natural waves the virus runs in. That’s why it’s not a great idea for FL to take a victory lap again...last time that happened was in May before the summer surge and that didn’t turn out so well. Also, FL is back up in the 10,000 cases a day range and 7-8% positive. It’s not like they are seeing a valley like NY/NJ this summer where cases bottomed out and % positive was under 2. Let’s hope the vaccine starts making a dent before a true 2nd wave hits there. That could be a real disaster.
It is.
The vaccinations will reduce the number of cases. At first that will mean the death rate will go up. Remember the number of deaths today has nothing to do with today's new infections, but prior infections. Thanks to Operation Warp speed we have an approved vaccine and delivery system setup. All we need is to let the system rum and in 4 months we will be fine with over 70% of the population vaccinated or with natural antibodies. Who coupld have predicted this tremendous advancement in science, of yes Donald Trump kept saying we would have the vaccine be the end of the year.
In august he said it would be September.. in September he said in a few weeks, October the latest.. in October he said this is all fake news, it will be announced the day after election and the vaccine would be available.. after the election he started his talk of a rigged election for over a month with no talk about the vaccine until he saw it was ready to be approved, now calling it the trump vaccine. Please don’t pick and choose one thing he said and conveniently forget the rest.
March.
