Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

And so is the top level Leadership, and therefore the role of health institutions like the CDC, NIH, CIDRAP and everyone else who have had their advice ignored thus far.

I know what you are saying about you/individual/safety. I agree that a mask on a vaccinated person does not increase safety on a MICRO one-on-one level. But the reason the policy will be extended won't be for THAT reason, but the MACRO factors that increase safety for the remaining people who aren't vaccinated. So no, I am not stuck in March, but understand that ensuring safety between specific individuals with known vaccination status (if you can believe them. Remember, Dr. House's number one rule: People lie), is different than ensuring group safety when everyone's status is unknown or costly to acquire (in time and labor) to the entity responsible for ensuring safety for all.

This makes sense up to a point and I agree that you have to look at the macro level or big picture and not focus on individuals, but once enough of the general population is vaccinated you don’t really need proof of vaccination anymore. There has to be a tipping point when we start rolling back restrictions. I don’t know exactly when that will be, but at some point it has to happen. We can’t keep all the restrictions in place indefinitely or until cases go to zero. There has to be a happy medium.

 

[GoofGoof]

Last I heard from Fauci was the end of next year at the earliest if all goes well with vaccine approval and distribution. He did an interview within the last week

I think he said fall of 2021 until life returns to normal, but it won’t be all at once where life is like it is today and then Oct 1 all restrictions go away. Restrictions will likely be rolled back gradually as more people get vaccinated and cases drop. Similar to moving from stay at home to re-opening phases only this time hopefully removing restrictions won’t cause a huge spike in cases since more and more people will be vaccinated each day. That’s the hope anyway.

Here’s a few from him:

Dr. Fauci Just Said When The Economy Will Finally Reopen

With coronavirus cases off the charts, and a vaccine still months away for most of us, it seems like there's no end in sight to the pandemic. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, discussed COVID-19 and the impact on the African-American...

www.yahoo.com

When will sports stadiums be full again? Dr. Anthony Fauci gives a timeline

Dr. Anthony Fauci told Yahoo Sports Monday that it’s unlikely NBA teams will be able to host full-capacity crowds during the 2020-21 season.

www.aol.com

 

[lazyboy97o]

...And in the end, is it possible that masks become a permanent requirement post-Covid for places like healthcare facilities, doctors offices, visiting long term care facilities, etc...?? Not strictly for combating covid, but for regular control of respiratory viruses in those high risk environments. Once medical communities latch onto protocols, it takes a lot of reason and justification to roll back off of them.

Part of what has surprised me to all of the "shock" over masks is that it has been at least a decade since I was in a medical facility that did not require persons with respiratory symptoms to wear a mask. Not the same as a uniform rule but still something that would be encountered and understood as a typical response.

As a society I hope we keep masks for when one is experiencing respiratory symptoms regardless of the situation like we see in parts of East Asia. Fine, you're tough for showing up to work a bit sick, but at least don't share it with me.

 

[Horizons '83]

Part of what has surprised me to all of the "shock" over masks is that it has been at least a decade since I was in a medical facility that did not require persons with respiratory symptoms to wear a mask. Not the same as a uniform rule but still something that would be encountered and understood as a typical response.

As a society I hope we keep masks for when one is experiencing respiratory symptoms regardless of the situation like we see in parts of East Asia. Fine, you're tough for showing up to work a bit sick, but at least don't share it with me.

That won’t happen in this country. Not agreeing or disagreeing but this is Amurica after all.

 

[hopemax]

This makes sense up to a point and I agree that you have to look at the macro level or big picture and not focus on individuals, but once enough of the general population is vaccinated you don’t really need proof of vaccination anymore. There has to be a tipping point when we start rolling back restrictions. I don’t know exactly when that will be, but at some point it has to happen. We can’t keep all the restrictions in place indefinitely or until cases go to zero. There has to be a happy medium.

Who said keep all restrictions in place indefinitely or cases go to zero? So why even introduce that strawman for others to latch onto?

Chi84 and I are having a disagreement because I said masks would be around longer than people think *in 2021*. I said to you, that we won't reach the necessary vaccination / immunity threshold until Fall. I also said that health officials are still going to watch out for a winter resurgence. I said distancing requirements would go away sooner. I said for WDW, capacity restrictions will start to diminish first. So if you think I am advocating for all restrictions, I don't know what to say.

 

[hopemax]

Oh, and wouldn't you know... EpiTwitter is reminding people that while we know that efficacy for you getting sick is high, we still don't know if vaccinated people are unable to infect someone else. The 2nd half of the equation.

So you get exposed, but you are vaccinated, so your body gets to work, and while you are technically infected, you will have no symptoms. The live virus that entered your system, can you spread it before it's eliminated? Is it neutralized? Primate studies so far have said, transmission is still possible. Other non-COVID vaccines, transmission is still possible; there is a track record.

So for @Chi84's question about why they still need to wear a mask... the answer is we don't know yet if you could still be Typhoid Mary, even if you're vaccinated.

Apparently, there are other vaccines still in development that do show prevention of transmission in primate tests. (Novavax and Janssen)

 

[techgeek]

That won’t happen in this country. Not agreeing or disagreeing but this is Amurica after all.

I think regardless of how actual requirements shake out, it will not be nearly as unusual to see someone in a mask in a public place as it once might have been.

It may be accepted as a common enough accessory to see at WDW or even the local grocery store for years. Not everyone, or even a majority... but maybe 5% or so where before you may have seen one in a thousand.

 

[Disney Experience]

Oh, and wouldn't you know... EpiTwitter is reminding people that while we know that efficacy for you getting sick is high, we still don't know if vaccinated people are unable to infect someone else. The 2nd half of the equation.

So you get exposed, but you are vaccinated, so your body gets to work, and while you are technically infected, you will have no symptoms. The live virus that entered your system, can you spread it before it's eliminated? Is it neutralized? Primate studies so far have said, transmission is still possible. Other non-COVID vaccines, transmission is still possible; there is a track record.

So for @Chi84's question about why they still need to wear a mask... the answer is we don't know yet if you could still be Typhoid Mary, even if you're vaccinated.

Apparently, there are other vaccines still in development that do show prevention of transmission in primate tests. (Novavax and Janssen)

Actually the Pfizer has been shown in animal studies (Done months ago) to have sterilizing effect against covid. So likely that translates to humans and makes vaccinated people unlikely to be a typhoid Mary.

Pfizer touts animal trial results for COVID-19 vaccine candidate - Drug Discovery and Development

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) announced today that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate protected against infection in preliminary non-human trials.

www.drugdiscoverytrends.com

 

[Chi84]

Who said keep all restrictions in place indefinitely or cases go to zero? So why even introduce that strawman for others to latch onto?

Chi84 and I are having a disagreement because I said masks would be around longer than people think *in 2021*. I said to you, that we won't reach the necessary vaccination / immunity threshold until Fall. I also said that health officials are still going to watch out for a winter resurgence. I said distancing requirements would go away sooner. I said for WDW, capacity restrictions will start to diminish first. So if you think I am advocating for all restrictions, I don't know what to say.

I don’t doubt your sincerity, but you don’t actually know any of the things you’re saying about how long mask mandates will be around or which restrictions will be relaxed first. Obviously, you believe what you predict is what will happen, and I took issue with some of your predictions. Basically, I just suggested that we need to wait and see instead of insisting with such certainty that what we’re “saying” is what will happen.

 

[Chi84]

I think regardless of how actual requirements shake out, it will not be nearly as unusual to see someone in a mask in a public place as it once might have been.

It may be accepted as a common enough accessory to see at WDW or even the local grocery store for years. Not everyone, or even a majority... but maybe 5% or so where before you may have seen one in a thousand.

I agree, especially for those with compromised immune systems who never would have thought of wearing a mask until this all happened. It seems like a sensible precaution for those who choose it.

 

[hopemax]

 

[hopemax]

I don’t doubt your sincerity, but you don’t actually know any of the things you’re saying about how long mask mandates will be around or which restrictions will be relaxed first. Obviously, you believe what you predict is what will happen, and I took issue with some of your predictions. Basically, I just suggested that we need to wait and see instead of insisting with such certainty that what we’re “saying” is what will happen.

You have already decided how you are going to react to masks restrictions after you have been vaccinated. You have already decided how businesses will react. That’s not wait & see. That doesn’t demonstrate “less certainty” than my prediction. I can be just as certain as you are. And I don’t claim to know, but I am listening, and therefore repeating what health experts I expect to be listened to, in the next administration and by big business, are saying. And so far that’s for everyone to, “slow down, the vaccine is a really big deal, but it’s still not the magic bullet that will eliminate the need for all other precautions.”

 

[GinaD613]

Based on my past experience, I will have no problem wearing a mask on the train, bus and subway to prevent catching colds, bronchitis, the flu, pneumonia and whatever other bugs people are always coughing and sneezing out without covering their mouths and noses.

And I hope to get the vaccine as soon as I am eligible, unless it has thimerosol, which is a mercury-based preservative that I am allergic to, and which has prevented me from getting a flu shot for a long time. I finally was able to get it this year at Costco.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Question for the group here. So, if vaccines further down the line are “better” (and that word is the best that a simpleton like me can use here) like the ones in development that @hopemax mentioned showing transmission prevention, can one get an additional vaccine later on? Or is that dangerous territory?

I mean, given the option, Disney could offer a new vaccine every month. Maybe an optional AP-holder exclusive vaccine? But I digress.

 

[LittleBuford]

I pretty much agree...look at how many colonies (especially the ones in africa) that are probably worse off now than during SOME of there colonized days.

Yeah, no. Please let’s not go down the route of celebrating colonialism and disparaging Africa. It’s irrelevant and offensive.

 

[LittleBuford]

I feel like you're giving people a lot of credit here when in all actuality - at least here in the U.S., I can't speak for the rest of the world - the hordes are going to shrug their shoulders at the 'dangers' of COVID/viruses/cleanliness once we all have the vaccine. Buffets will reopen everywhere and no one will give a damn. Of course, many shrug their shoulders at COVID already... so you can imagine what that means for the future.

I take COVID very seriously—no travel, restaurants, or gatherings for me—but will gladly eat food from a buffet once the pandemic is behind us. Am I the only one here not grossed out by them?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

hopefully it comes second nature. Just like the flu vaccine.

The problem is that not that many people get the flu vaccine and it’s not even CLOSE to a dangerous/deadly...despite months of stupidity comparisons

 

[DisneyCane]

Oh, and wouldn't you know... EpiTwitter is reminding people that while we know that efficacy for you getting sick is high, we still don't know if vaccinated people are unable to infect someone else. The 2nd half of the equation.

So you get exposed, but you are vaccinated, so your body gets to work, and while you are technically infected, you will have no symptoms. The live virus that entered your system, can you spread it before it's eliminated? Is it neutralized? Primate studies so far have said, transmission is still possible. Other non-COVID vaccines, transmission is still possible; there is a track record.

So for @Chi84's question about why they still need to wear a mask... the answer is we don't know yet if you could still be Typhoid Mary, even if you're vaccinated.

Apparently, there are other vaccines still in development that do show prevention of transmission in primate tests. (Novavax and Janssen)

I haven't looked into it but I'll ask now. In these current trials, how are they determining if trial participants get infected? Are they tested regularly or not unless they get symptoms?

Also, even if all the vaccine does is prevent people from getting sick and they are over 90% effective at doing that, does it really matter if vaccinated people can still transmit it? You reduce the potential negative impact by over 90%.

 

[DisneyCane]

Yeah, it’s better for society if everyone who is able just gets the vaccine, but it would also have been better the last 8 months if people just did what was better for society. Sadly some people just don’t care about anyone but themselves. It’s everyone’s right to do what they want, but it’s my right to describe that behavior as selfish if an able bodied person decides not to get the free vaccine because it’s their right to do so.

Fortunately it doesn’t appear that Covid is as contagious as measles so it’s likely that we only need 60-70% vaccinated to reach herd immunity. In theory once the R naught drops below 1 due to enough people being immune then the number of cases should spiral down exponentially until it reaches zero. There may still be outbreaks after that as pockets of unvaccinated people spread it around, but at that point real contact tracing and testing should be able to snuff it out quickly. I think there will be a period between when vaccinations are widespread and we reach no or very few cases where anyone who can’t get the vaccine will have to lay low and be more cautious. Unlike the nonsense idea of isolating the high risk today without a vaccine it should be possible and practical to isolate that small group once the vaccine is widely available. They will likely be susceptible to other sickness as well so accustomed to being careful. There is an economic component to this pandemic too and we can’t just keep Covid restrictions forever to protect a very small group. I’m OK with doing that today due to the large number of people impacted.

I think part of the issue with the percentage that get vaccinated is people who just don't feel like going to get it, especially with a two shot regimen required. With the flu shot, they practically beg people to get it. With most insurance plans you get it for free and places (like Publix down here) even give you gift cards for getting the shot. I think the only way to fight the laziness factor with the COVID vaccine will be for workplaces, schools and attractions like WDW to require proof of COVID vaccination. Definitely not a government mandate which will instantly cause some percentage to refuse to get it.

Then you have people like my mom who are psychotically afraid of COVID. She hasn't gone anywhere except absolutely necessary doctor's visits since March. She wouldn't even visit my dying father in the hospital or hospice WITH ACCESS TO AN N95 MASK TO WEAR (he didn't have COVID). She wants the vaccine but due to the irresponsible comments by some and reporting on those comments by the media wants to wait at least a few months after a lot of people have gotten it to be convinced it is safe.

 

[DisneyCane]

With all due respect, this is why we have the problems we have today. Most people who spread COVID would say they truly believed they were not infected on the days they spread it. Sure, there are the idiots who test positive or have a close contact who they already know is positive, but they are outnumbered by the people who claim, "I did everything right, and I still got it." People are horrible at evaluating risk.

I think you may be overestimating the number of people who spread it with no idea they were a risk to spread it. Here is an example (I've actually heard a few similar stories):

My brother is an assistant coach for a youth baseball team. In the third inning of a game two weeks ago, they were informed that a kid who was playing in the game just got a positive test result and needed to leave. His mom had symptoms a few days earlier and tested positive. The kid got tested due to the close contact with his mom even though he was asymptomatic. However, he continued his normal life until he received a positive test result. He should have quarantined just from the close contact with a positive (and symptomatic) case. I think there are at least hundreds of thousands of stories like this.