Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chi84]

I think the resorts not being filled has more to do with international travel restrictions and domestic quarantine orders after travel than demand.

Also, people don't want to put up with the restrictions and lessened experiences. As one of the imagineers put it, people don't want to go to Disney feeling like they're in a hospital.

 

[SamusAranX]

If the result of the pandemic means the death knell of Golden Corral and that putrid cesspool of child germs referred to as the “chocolate fountain”, then that’s finally something good about 2020.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I can’t believe I’m saying this...but I agree It may be that buffets fall way out of favor. It’s hard to say now. I think many people will have to slowly return to “normalcy“ after over a year of living pandemic style. In 2022 or 2025 will this start to become a distant memory or will some aspects stick? I’m not sure. By avoiding labor costs buffets are a cheap and profitable business so if demand comes back I’m sure they will return. They are also faster to turn over since people don’t have to order and then wait for food.

I feel like you're giving people a lot of credit here when in all actuality - at least here in the U.S., I can't speak for the rest of the world - the hordes are going to shrug their shoulders at the 'dangers' of COVID/viruses/cleanliness once we all have the vaccine. Buffets will reopen everywhere and no one will give a damn. Of course, many shrug their shoulders at COVID already... so you can imagine what that means for the future.

 

[ChrisRobin124]

That's part of the difference. My understanding is the UK approval took the company's analysis and reviewed and signed off based on that analysis.

The US review starts at the raw data and does it's own analysis.


Close, but not quite. The external (not FDA employees, and people who were not involved in the trials) advisory board doesn't have the data yet. There's a step in between where the FDA will review the raw data and create an analysis. This is sent to the external advisory board about a week before the meeting to give them a week to review the analysis before the meeting. I think we're still in that middle part where the FDA is processing all the raw data to create that analysis. The external reviewers will depend on the FDA analysis while the FDA depends on the raw data. I'm sure those people doing the analysis worked over Thanksgiving and the weekend, and probably long days too.


In the old days, they would have sent a semi (or several) full of paper to the FDA with all the raw data on it. Now they do it electronically, but it's not any less information, probably more. For every trial participant, every manufacturing step, all the way from where the raw chemicals come from through every step in production, distribution, and trial patient. It's way more than just "did it work?". But, is it repeatable and consistent, and does it work, plus all the impacts. It doesn't help anyone if production batch B is different than A, and A worked but B doesn't. Or, if they both work but B had more side effects. Things that would mean batches A and B were not exactly the same.



And, this is just for an EUA with a limited scope of the most at risk people likely to be approved to get it. Full approval for general availability to any random person is going to dig even deeper.

Lots of the analysis of drugs in general is weighing the risks vs the thing they're solving. The risk should be lower, much lower, from the drug than the alternative. Healthcare works and seniors in care facilities, the first to likely get approval, are at much higher risk from COVID which means there's more leeway. A perfectly healthy 15 year old with no other risk conditions needs a much higher bar that there's no risk. It's part of what makes vaccine approval so much stronger with less tolerance for impacts. We're giving it to someone who is currently healthy and do not want to change that. In comparison, a cancer drug could have lots of issues but the alternative is cancer kills you, there's lots of room for complications that are less bad than death.

Wow! Thank you for that analysis, @mmascari! I feel a lot better about the time being taken after reading your post.

 

[seascape]

I think we can look at FL and see that mandates are not the key driver of unemployment. It’s been several months since the Governor removed all restrictions and the economy in FL isn’t exactly booming. Unemployment is still a big problem. It’s very easy to gain political favor by railing on about lockdowns and claim you are fighting to help the economy, but much of what the FL Governor has done is actually detrimental to the overall economy. I know Disney would prefer if the rest of the state had some more safety protocols. It might help draw in more tourists and help their business.

I have to disagree with you on this. The restrictions New York snd New Jersey had on travel to Florida, a 2 week quarantine on return, kept my wife and I from making at least 2 trips to Florida. In September Florida was just over the 10 per hundred thousand limit and look at things today. According to the NY Times, New Jersey actually has 45.1 per hundred thousand, New York has 35.5 per hundred thousand and Florida has 36.5 per hundred thousand. So why is there still a travel restriction? It is safer visiting Florida, than living in NJ. The travel restrictions are hurting Florida and especially Orlando. I can see travel restrictions to the Miami Dade area but not Orlando.

 

[ChrisRobin124]

By Newsday StaffUpdated December 2, 2020 12:47 PM

New York will have the first batch of COVID-19 vaccines for about 170,000 residents in about two weeks, said Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a significant step in trying to get the virus's spread down as the state climbs a new mountain of new infections.
He said Pfizer will deliver the number of doses for that many state residents on December 15, if all safety and efficacy approvals are granted.
New York is also expecting a second allocation of Pfizer vaccines and a separate allocation of Moderna's vaccine sometime later this month, state officials said. The vaccine will require a double dosage and its availability will be prioritized according to the federal guidelines reviewed by the state.
That will be part of a national vaccination push that will build up to about 40 million doses, or enough to vaccinate 20 million people across the country, by the end of the month, Cuomo said during a briefing with reporters. Those dosages will be enough to vaccinate about 6% of Americans, he said.

 

[Jrb1979]

I have to disagree with you on this. The restrictions New York snd New Jersey had on travel to Florida, a 2 week quarantine on return, kept my wife and I from making at least 2 trips to Florida. In September Florida was just over the 10 per hundred thousand limit and look at things today. According to the NY Times, New Jersey actually has 45.1 per hundred thousand, New York has 35.5 per hundred thousand and Florida has 36.5 per hundred thousand. So why is there still a travel restriction? It is safer visiting Florida, than living in NJ. The travel restrictions are hurting Florida and especially Orlando. I can see travel restrictions to the Miami Dade area but not Orlando.

It maybe hurting Florida and Orlando but nobody should be doing travel right now. I know you want to save Disney and CM's but now is not time to be traveling. The CDC already said to avoid any unnecessary travel.

 

[Parker in NYC]

It maybe hurting Florida and Orlando but nobody should be doing travel right now. I know you want to save Disney and CM's but now is not time to be traveling. The CDC already said to avoid any unnecessary travel.

The CDC doesn't matter to these people.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't support closing without compensation but I do support closing when community spread is rampant in an area.

You and everyone reasonable

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

...and buffets.

I think most of the character dining comes back with the characters just appearing in the restaurant at first but not going table to table. As soon as the CMs are vaccinated there’s less of a risk and they can return to normal. Not sure on buffets. Probably one of the last things back. Maybe buffets with servers (no self serve) come back first before full self serve buffets.

I wouldn't be surprised if all buffets everywhere never return to self service. I think COVID has made people think about how unsanitary they are with people touching serving utensils and the dropping them into the serving trays, etc.

Is it too soon to say this is a good thing because buffets are gluttonous and unnecessary?

...prolly too soon, huh?

 

[jmp85]

Thank you for your thoughtful reply, @GoofGoof!

The UK and other countries perform a "rolling review" of the trial data. They receive data in pieces and review them as they come in. The FDA chose not to (they historically have not) and thus they received all the data at once.

 

[GoofGoof]

The world economy had already taken a dump. Look at all the layoffs, a vaccine is not going to fix that.

As far as pent up demand goes, I have kept hearing that since the reopened and it hasn't shown up yet. There is a reason resorts aren't being filled.

A vaccine is a game changer. There hasn’t been demand because there’s a pandemic raging. One American a minute is dying from this virus. It’s not a great environment to travel anywhere. Once a large portion of the population is vaccinated that changes dramatically. The economy has taken a dump but it’s not spread across every industry evenly. I‘ve seen different studies done, but the consensus seems to be about 60% of the economy was not impacted. Of the 40% that was its heavily waited towards travel, physical retail and dining. So while a lot of people lost their jobs, many more didn’t and when you add in multiple stimulus checks and potentially saving money on reduced activity, commuting, etc there’s a lot of pent up disposable income that could be put into play. Disney needs to be able to put out a product that’s worth people shelling out the cash.

I think you will be fine for August. From everything I have heard there is a lot availability right now. Even between Christmas and NYE, lots of availability.

There’s availability now because cases are surging, the CDC is recommending against unnecessary travel, many states are under travel quarantine orders and Disney has so many restrictions it’s hardly worth the price. Assuming a vaccine comes by the summer the CDC recommendations and travel quarantines will be gone, cases should be way down, and hopefully Disney will have ramped down or removed their restrictions. I am a DVC owner and plan to book at BCV at the 7 month window. I can tell you right now the rooms are booking the day of the 7 month window in July right now so there’s not plenty of availability. I know DVC doesn’t reflect the masses but there are thousands of DVC rooms so not an immaterial number of guests and this is without international guests who may be reluctant to book anything until flights come back.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Is it too soon to say this is a good thing because buffets are gluttonous and unnecessary?

...prolly too soon, huh?

Gluttonous and unnecessary? Isn't that the whole basis of the cruise industry?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Gluttonous and unnecessary? Isn't that the whole basis of the cruise industry?

Leisure travel in general. Certainly theme parks!

 

[Parker in NYC]

Leisure travel in general. Certainly theme parks!

Yes, but I can't look myself in the mirror and admit it!

 

[GoofGoof]

I have to disagree with you on this. The restrictions New York snd New Jersey had on travel to Florida, a 2 week quarantine on return, kept my wife and I from making at least 2 trips to Florida. In September Florida was just over the 10 per hundred thousand limit and look at things today. According to the NY Times, New Jersey actually has 45.1 per hundred thousand, New York has 35.5 per hundred thousand and Florida has 36.5 per hundred thousand. So why is there still a travel restriction? It is safer visiting Florida, than living in NJ. The travel restrictions are hurting Florida and especially Orlando. I can see travel restrictions to the Miami Dade area but not Orlando.

I know it’s easier to just blame the government, but the fact of the matter is people aren’t traveling because of the pandemic.

 

[Jrb1979]

I know it’s easier to just blame the government, but the fact of the matter is people aren’t traveling because of the pandemic.

I'm sure this doesn't help.

Florida becomes 3rd state to hit 1 million coronavirus cases

This comes one day after Governor Ron DeSantis held a press conference where he denounced mask mandates.

news.yahoo.com

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I wouldn't be surprised if all buffets everywhere never return to self service. I think COVID has made people think about how unsanitary they are with people touching serving utensils and the dropping them into the serving trays, etc.

I support this before or after Covid .

 

[Disstevefan1]

The world economy had already taken a dump. Look at all the layoffs, a vaccine is not going to fix that.

As far as pent up demand goes, I have kept hearing that since the reopened and it hasn't shown up yet. There is a reason resorts aren't being filled.

Sorry if I was not clear, I was speaking post pandemic; around June, air travel back to normal, international travel to the US back to pre pandemic freedoms, the vaccine for anyone who wants it.

Todays economy or demand (I think) will look nothing like what we will see post pandemic.

We must hope the world will bounce back or else we should all just give up now..

 

[sbunit]

what's everyone's guess on when things "might" return to some kind of normalcy? (nighttime shows, no masks, indoor shows, etc.)

I know they'd have to rehire and retrain a lot for the indoor shows. With the vaccine coming out that's a good thing BUT not everyone will take it or be able to take it for awhile. Will they do like Ticketmaster is going to do and require proof of a vaccine or negative test?

Something has to give at some point but where is that line for Disney?

I personally believe there will be a window of gradual transition that I anticipate would start late Spring and last towards the end of the summer/early fall for Disney world to start gradually loosening restrictions and re-introducing suspended activities and entertainment. By fall, when Halloween and the holidays start to emerge, I think Disney's goal will be to function as close to pre-covid times as possible in order to coincide their offerings with the holidays and urge of travel. This assumes the population will gradually get vaccinated starting March/April and herd immunity slowly ramps up steadily each month. Disney Cannot continue to function like this past the winter, they have to start bringing back the vast majority of their offerings in order to lure more guests to book vacations.