Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Chi84

Chi84

Premium Member
JoeCamel said:
Mmmm, how about for other viruses? ;)
www.reuters.com

South Korea reports bird flu outbreak on duck farm: OIE

South Korea has confirmed an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N8 bird flu on a duck farm in the southwestern part of the country, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said on Monday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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I’ll definitely respond to that when it happens. I was answering a question in the context of the current virus.

Also, masks will not be outlawed, just optional. Anyone who doesn’t want the vaccine or doesn’t trust it will still have masks.
 
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GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
JoeCamel said:
Mmmm, how about for other viruses? ;)
www.reuters.com

South Korea reports bird flu outbreak on duck farm: OIE

South Korea has confirmed an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N8 bird flu on a duck farm in the southwestern part of the country, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said on Monday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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Oh heck no. Not gonna happen. 1 pandemic every hundred years. That’s the rules. If I though that was even remotely possible to be a thing and we’d have to go through this again I’d advocate killing every last thing on the planet with wings...sorry big bird ;) ....and if people think that’s extreme talk to the minks in Denmark.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Do people really think once the vaccine is available to anyone that wants it that we will still have all these Covid restrictions? That seems incredibly unlikely. I do think there will be a period where some people will be vaccinated but it won’t be widely available so Covid restrictions will still be in place. In that case I think everyone will be expected to comply even if they have the vaccine. It’s not practical to allow masks and distancing to stop for people who were vaccinated and require it for people who were not. For example in 2 weeks time some healthcare workers will get vaccinated but I don’t think they will be able to go to the grocery store or WDW without a mask or distancing in February. Same goes for 65+ or high risk individuals in the next phase. If they are vaccinated by March/April they will still be subject to Covid restrictions due to the fact that a large portion of the population hasn’t had the vaccine still. If as predicted by warp speed and other healthcare experts the vaccine will be available to anyone who wants it by June then I see no reason why restrictions wouldn’t be rolled back or removed completely. If that takes until October than it will happen then. I don’t think you have to wait for cases to go to zero to reduce restrictions.

All of this is just my opinion and the timing is based on estimates given. Obviously we don’t know how this will all play out.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
techgeek said:
My perspective on this is from the viewpoint of business travel, as I was involved in the convention business prior to Covid and have had my ear to the ground on that angle throughout the pandemic.

Tourism might snap back relatively quickly (the ‘pent up demand’ theory), but business travel is now essentially confirmed to be on a much slower schedule and may never fully recover to 2019 levels. Several of the companies I have worked with have already communicated they are seeing patterns of ‘a new normal’ for business travel, and large companies across the board are signaling this is going to be a permanent change. At the very least, increased scrutiny and a business justification will be required for many corporate travel opportunities, even after widespread vaccine availability.

It’s too early to say how this affects the long term prospects of conventions and meetings (plenty of people still see value in in-person meetings and trade shows, certainly), but 2021 is essentially going to be a mirror of 2020’s horrible numbers - there may be a slow return beginning in the last quarter of the year. 2022 and beyond will largely be dictated by the global economic picture, and nobody is holding their breath on that yet.

Seeing as at least 20% of travel to Orlando in prior years was business related, this is likely to have a measurable effect on the recovery curve of the attractions. The bottom line at WDW is not simply dictated by tourism. In addition to the loss of ancillary guest traffic from ‘families tagging along’, Disney will have almost none of the direct business in 2021 they are used to from meeting space, hotel rooms, park & land buyouts, banquet F&B, etc. I don’t pretend to know what this means for the return of specific entertainment or guest offerings, but it all hits the same bottom line.
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I think business travel will get “the itch” again. Conventions are just as much a diversion as individual vacations are...

But I’m thinking 5 years to get close in the best of circumstances

oceanbreeze77 said:
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I’m glad Redfield can now speak the truth as a doctor and do his job again...it helps.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Do people really think once the vaccine is available to anyone that wants it that we will still have all these Covid restrictions? That seems incredibly unlikely. I do think there will be a period where some people will be vaccinated but it won’t be widely available so Covid restrictions will still be in place. In that case I think everyone will be expected to comply even if they have the vaccine. It’s not practical to allow masks and distancing to stop for people who were vaccinated and require it for people who were not. For example in 2 weeks time some healthcare workers will get vaccinated but I don’t think they will be able to go to the grocery store or WDW without a mask or distancing in February. Same goes for 65+ or high risk individuals in the next phase. If they are vaccinated by March/April they will still be subject to Covid restrictions due to the fact that a large portion of the population hasn’t had the vaccine still. If as predicted by warp speed and other healthcare experts the vaccine will be available to anyone who wants it by June then I see no reason why restrictions wouldn’t be rolled back or removed completely. If that takes until October than it will happen then. I don’t think you have to wait for cases to go to zero to reduce restrictions.

All of this is just my opinion and the timing is based on estimates given. Obviously we don’t know how this will all play out.
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The immunity peak is approximately 1 week after second shot. If someone just got the first shot, they should not assume they have 95% probability of immunity. So if anyone thinks it is safe right after the first shot to not wear a mask where they would have before, they are wrong. The people not in the study who get their shots in mid to late December will be at real protection mid to late January, or first week of February.

I think if our society was very compliant with covid mitigation (masks, hand sanitizer) and did not have people who refused to mask up where appropriate, people that are vaccinated likely could go without masks with minimal risks to themselves or to others. Other than animal studies, there are no studies on whether one can be a vector of covid if one is vaccinated, so the actual level of risk is not yet quantified for transmission via the vaccinated.
 
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hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Chi84 said:
No, if I receive a vaccine that is 95% effective, coupled with the fact that the vast majority of people do not have COVID, it’s not a case of a selfish idiot not being able to properly evaluate risk. The risk that I pose will be virtually non-existent. My wearing a mask under those circumstances will not protect anyone else because it will not be as it is now, when people have no way of evaluating whether or not they are infected. When the vaccine becomes widely available, restrictions will be dropped.
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Then I expect you will be surprised. As far as health policy is concerned, the status of single individuals won't matter. You count as a point on a scoreboard. You were in the first half of the line, took your shot. Congratulations, you scored, now stand over there, and wait for everyone else in line to finish the game. You don't get to get bored, immediately declare victory and demand the start of a new game because you finished your shooting task for Team Human. Team COVID and the rest of Team Human is still on the floor, and you and everyone else will have to wait. Strapped businesses aren't going to spend labor costs to sort who is safe and who isn't. It will either be vaccination requirements to enter, or masks in high density locations. IMO, Disney is going to bet on enough people willing to mask up a little longer, than telling the vaccination hesitant to stay home and not spend money with them.

GoofGoof said:
Do people really think once the vaccine is available to anyone that wants it that we will still have all these Covid restrictions? That seems incredibly unlikely.
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I think we will have to reach two thresholds for the removal of all restrictions. Vaccination uptake will be one of the check boxes. Virus prevalence will be another one. I think we are going to have to get through next winter and see if we have a resurgence. I don't think we'll reach the vaccination uptake levels until Fall, and so it will just be easier to keep the extremely cheap restriction of masks through the end of the year. Distancing will go away sooner because of economics.

Vaccination uptake is going to come down to trust in the medical community, and trust in government. I think it would be stupid to tell the hesitant that, "Because you have experienced a medical or a government situation to generate high levels of mistrust (especially minority populations)," we are going to make you mistrust us even more by blaming you for your hesitation and leaving you to your fate. I know why humans on message boards will blame the people who are hesitant, but I don't think it will become policy.
 
T

techgeek

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Do people really think once the vaccine is available to anyone that wants it that we will still have all these Covid restrictions? That seems incredibly unlikely. I do think there will be a period where some people will be vaccinated but it won’t be widely available so Covid restrictions will still be in place. In that case I think everyone will be expected to comply even if they have the vaccine
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I think this is going to depend very much on where you are and what you’re trying to do. Mask requirements for instance... probably dropped first by national retail chains, once one takes the plunge the rest will follow. After that, places like WDW that will hold to a higher threshold. Airlines and other transit systems. Finally, institutional and government facilities may hold out even longer... I could see mask requirements in some school systems long outlasting WDW, but that will depend on where you are.

...And in the end, is it possible that masks become a permanent requirement post-Covid for places like healthcare facilities, doctors offices, visiting long term care facilities, etc...?? Not strictly for combating covid, but for regular control of respiratory viruses in those high risk environments. Once medical communities latch onto protocols, it takes a lot of reason and justification to roll back off of them.

It was over just a few days that all of a sudden ‘make sure you have your mask’ was added to my daily departure routine. I suspect I’ll be carrying one with me long after I expect to actually need it, ‘just in case’.
 
Chi84

Chi84

Premium Member
hopemax said:
Then I expect you will be surprised. As far as health policy is concerned, the status of single individuals won't matter. You count as a point on a scoreboard. You were in the first half of the line, took your shot. Congratulations, you scored, now stand over there, and wait for everyone else in line to finish the game. You don't get to get bored, immediately declare victory and demand the start of a new game because you finished your shooting task for Team Human. Team COVID and the rest of Team Human is still on the floor, and you and everyone else will have to wait. Strapped businesses aren't going to spend labor costs to sort who is safe and who isn't. It will either be vaccination requirements to enter, or masks in high density locations. IMO, Disney is going to bet on enough people willing to mask up a little longer, than telling the vaccination hesitant to stay home and not spend money with them.



I think we will have to reach two thresholds for the removal of all restrictions. Vaccination uptake will be one of the check boxes. Virus prevalence will be another one. I think we are going to have to get through next winter and see if we have a resurgence. I don't think we'll reach the vaccination uptake levels until Fall, and so it will just be easier to keep the extremely cheap restriction of masks through the end of the year. Distancing will go away sooner because of economics.

Vaccination uptake is going to come down to trust in the medical community, and trust in government. I think it would be stupid to tell the hesitant that, "Because you have experienced a medical or a government situation to generate high levels of mistrust (especially minority populations)," we are going to make you mistrust us even more by blaming you for your hesitation and leaving you to your fate. I know why humans on message boards will blame the people who are hesitant, but I don't think it will become policy.
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It’s not a matter of being bored, it’s a matter of no longer posing a danger to others. Masks are cheap, but useless if the person wearing them doesn’t have COVID and is 95% certain not to become infected or give it to others. I’m perfectly amenable to vaccine requirements in order to enter.

I suspect you will be surprised at how quickly masks and other restrictions are dropped after a highly effective vaccine becomes widely available.
 
T

techgeek

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
I think business travel will get “the itch” again. Conventions are just as much a diversion as individual vacations are...

But I’m thinking 5 years to get close in the best of circumstances
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5 years or so jives with what I’ve been hearing and seeing. I suspect first back will be the ‘incentive’ type of trips, gotta keep that sales team motivated and happy. Trade shows should filter back early in the cycle as well, there has been widespread dissatisfaction from both sell and buy sides at attempts to ‘virtually’ replace a show floor.

Some of the educational / symposium type meetings were starting to favor online formats prior to Covid, I suspect some of those will be the type of thing that doesn’t return.
 
hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Chi84 said:
It’s not a matter of being bored, it’s a matter of no longer posing a danger to others. Masks are cheap, but useless if the person wearing them doesn’t have COVID and is 95% certain not to become infected or give it to others. I’m perfectly amenable to vaccine requirements in order to enter.

I suspect you will be surprised at how quickly masks and other restrictions are dropped after a highly effective vaccine becomes widely available.
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You know you are repeating the argument people who have already had COVID have made since March? Did it matter? How much money do think businesses will spend to sort who is safe, and who is not? Me: not much, when they can just say, "Wear your mask."
 
Chi84

Chi84

Premium Member
hopemax said:
You know you are repeating the argument people who have already had COVID have made since March? Did it matter? How much money do think businesses will spend to sort who is safe, and who is not? Me: not much, when they can just say, "Wear your mask."
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You seem to be stuck in March. Things are going to change when a 95% effective vaccine becomes widely available. It’s not going to be the same as it was in March, so the responses of government and businesses will be different.

Yes, I believe businesses are going to operate differently when most people are vaccinated. I believe a lot of people are going to get the vaccine and they’re going to understand that they no longer pose a danger to others. Businesses are not going to tell these people to wear a mask, when doing so is senseless.

At this point, it doesn’t seem we will agree and neither one of us knows what will happen in the future. Maybe we can just check back in the summer after we actually know something.
 
hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Chi84 said:
You seem to be stuck in March. Things are going to change when a 95% effective vaccine becomes widely available. It’s not going to be the same as it was in March, so the responses of government and businesses will be different.

Yes, I believe businesses are going to operate differently when most people are vaccinated. I believe a lot of people are going to get the vaccine and they’re going to understand that they no longer pose a danger to others. Businesses are not going to tell these people to wear a mask, when doing so is senseless.

At this point, it doesn’t seem we will agree and neither one of us knows what will happen in the future. Maybe we can just check back in the summer after we actually know something.
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And so is the top level Leadership, and therefore the role of health institutions like the CDC, NIH, CIDRAP and everyone else who have had their advice ignored thus far.

I know what you are saying about you/individual/safety. I agree that a mask on a vaccinated person does not increase safety on a MICRO one-on-one level. But the reason the policy will be extended won't be for THAT reason, but the MACRO factors that increase safety for the remaining people who aren't vaccinated. So no, I am not stuck in March, but understand that ensuring safety between specific individuals with known vaccination status (if you can believe them. Remember, Dr. House's number one rule: People lie), is different than ensuring group safety when everyone's status is unknown or costly to acquire (in time and labor) to the entity responsible for ensuring safety for all.
 
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