Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Polkadotdress

Well-Known Member
We’re sick of this. We’re burnt out. When life for eight months (and counting) consists of going to work and virtually nothing else to look forward to, it’s hard to have patience.
You *do* realize how tone-deaf this sounds? Complaining about movies, vacations, and other social activities and the burden of ONLY having to go to work, when so many people across the country are unemployed and would give anything to have a job?
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
You know what changes behavior? Expericing a bad outcome in a close loved one or friend, and I hate to say it but most Americans are about to experience one very soon, and it might not be Grandma or Grandpa it might be Uncle Bob, Mom, Dad, cousin Stu or even little Sally.

Hospitals are reaching capacity in the Midwest and Texas, it’s hard to fully appreciate how close we are because reports are based on how many empty beds we have but most hospitals have simply run out of nurses to staff them. When hospitals can’t admit anyone further then they need to start rationing care and not just on the Covid wards, everywhere. Cases are rising in all 50 states so without something changing it will spread to the whole country.

Imagine getting a call from the ER that your loved one has suffered a major heart attack, stroke, or trauma and being told you have two choices in care for that loved one, suboptimal care that will not include needed surgical interventions and are unlikely to keep then alive and if they did leave them with permanent disabilities or you can accept hospice care where we will ease their passing (and allow you to visit them one last time) by keeping them pain free. Unfortunately our algorithm and bed capacity have told us they are too sick and too much of a risk for our resources to be spent on them and need to be saved for someone we are sure we can.

This is coming, and may be happening in a matter of weeks in the parts of the Midwest and Texas which would mean it’s so close now nothing can stop it, the people who will experience this first already have Covid (it will be first felt there before spreading to other diagnoses.)

When it does, don’t blame the healthcare industry and workers; we’ve been telling you this for months this would happen but you couldn’t stop yourself and you put your faith in the wrong political leader and are very much about to learn a bitter economic lesson in supply and demand. Winter has come all ye grasshoppers and the anthill will not let you in.

On the plus side, vaccine compliance is going to be through the roof after this because as always Americans are really good at doing the right thing eventually, after we’ve exhausted every wrong option and have been personally burned by our stubbornness.

The vaccine news is wonderful, I spent all day yesterday booking hotel rooms starting in March (as always I’m an optimist) but folks it’s always darkest just before the dawn and this winter is going to be terrible. Prepare and take all precautions to avoid a hospitalizing illness as you may not be able to get care.
Considering that you state it is happening in all 50 states, how do you then blame it on putting "your faith in the wrong political leader?" The governors are in control of everything and the President doesn't actually have any power over them. You may say that he has influence over the Republican governors but certainly not over the Democrat governors. Yet every state is having issues to some degree.

For some comparison, in cases per capita, Florida is lower than Illinois in total and much lower in daily cases per capita right now. Yet, Florida would be the one most closely following the "wrong political leader." So, can we please stop the political blame game and pretending that some magical policies can make this better short of draconian lockdowns?

It is a virus. Viruses spread and infect new hosts. That's what they exist to do. The only way to for human intervention to truly stop them or even significantly slow them while maintaining some semblance of civilization is with a vaccine that prevents them from infecting a new host.

It isn't a political policy issue like funding Medicare. It is a disease. If it did escape from a Chinese lab then the people with bad safety protocols were at fault. Other than that, no human can be blamed for this disease. Please note that I said "if" that is what happened. If it was just a natural development than no human is at fault but China's government lying at the beginning did make things worse worldwide.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
You know what would be nice for Christmas??

That the couple of hangers ons would finally cut the crap and stop with the hoax theory inferences...

Or Hanukkah..or Kwanzaa..or whatever...

Who are you referring to that is making any inference to a "hoax?" I don't see that in any of the posts on here. Disagreeing with a return to lockdowns or closing WDW again doesn't indicate support of a hoax theory.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Considering that you state it is happening in all 50 states, how do you then blame it on putting "your faith in the wrong political leader?" The governors are in control of everything and the President doesn't actually have any power over them. You may say that he has influence over the Republican governors but certainly not over the Democrat governors. Yet every state is having issues to some degree.

For some comparison, in cases per capita, Florida is lower than Illinois in total and much lower in daily cases per capita right now. Yet, Florida would be the one most closely following the "wrong political leader." So, can we please stop the political blame game and pretending that some magical policies can make this better short of draconian lockdowns?

It is a virus. Viruses spread and infect new hosts. That's what they exist to do. The only way to for human intervention to truly stop them or even significantly slow them while maintaining some semblance of civilization is with a vaccine that prevents them from infecting a new host.

It isn't a political policy issue like funding Medicare. It is a disease. If it did escape from a Chinese lab then the people with bad safety protocols were at fault. Other than that, no human can be blamed for this disease. Please note that I said "if" that is what happened. If it was just a natural development than no human is at fault but China's government lying at the beginning did make things worse worldwide.

So we aren’t allowed to blame Politicians outside of China?

The more people congregate in groups indoor the virus spreads, Florida is benefiting from its climate currently, which is why it’s taking longer for the virus to spread but given how widespread this virus has become and Florida actively recruiting people from affected areas who are least likely to take precautions (and thus more likely to have the virus) to visit the virus is still increasing in FL despite the good weather.

When there is another shutdown (I don’t think its avoidable at this point) at or right after the New Year it will be because our political leaders on the national scale saw the economy as a light switch instead of a series of levers. We should have opened more slowly and have been more nimble so that we tightened and loosened restrictions as the situation warranted. But we didn’t, at least not in enough states, and as the country allows for freedom of travel and citizens quietly revolted in those states who were cautious and didn’t follow the rules we are where we are; and as a President once said The buck stops here (at the Resolute Desk.)
 

willtravel

Well-Known Member
Zeke Emanuel isn't one to want to spend a lot of resources on elderly people. I wonder how that meshes with trying to control a pandemic where most of the victims are old people.

At 63 himself, I wonder if his views have changed any over time.
Since his future employer is 77, I guess there will at least be one exception to his rule.
 

_caleb

Well-Known Member
It’s obvious that we see things differently. And you have been fairly consistent as you’ve posted in this thread. I wish you could see how things are interconnected.
Because it isn't in the theme park or the compliant businesses around the theme park or the travel to the theme park that is causing most of the spread.
Theme parks may not be causing most of the spread (we don’t actually know how much of the spread is happening at theme parks), but it is clearly not essential for people to go to them during a pandemic. The key to limiting the spread is limiting unnecessary proximity to others.
Your opinion is basically "how can you do anything enjoyable while people are dying."
No, my opinion is basically, “how can you unnecessarily do the thing that’s killing people when many people don’t have a choice?”
You are entitled to your opinion, I just disagree with it strongly. Also, there are not 1000 preventable deaths per day. By saying that you are assuming that some type of action would get the cases down to near zero. Until there is a vaccine, that is impossible to accomplish without a several month complete and total lockdown of society.
By this point, all the deaths from COVID were preventable. Maybe at first we weren’t ready or we didn’t have enough information. But our failure to respond adequately put these deaths in the “preventable” category. Also, I’m not talking about “total lockdowns” or “getting the cases down to zero.” The curve is not flat. We could do better, and we’re not.
Again, if the spread isn't happening at WDW on any large scale, why should they have it on their conscience. Again, it's the "how can you do anything enjoyable when people are dying" attitude. If there was significant spread traced to WDW being open, then it would become a moral decision for them.
You don’t know how much spread is happening at WDW (“significant” or otherwise). It’s a moral decision because it’s putting money before people in proximity with others unnecessarily.
People in my area (which is very "blue" by the way) don't seem to be avoiding businesses in any significant way even though cases have increased in the last month.
Not sure why you see the world in terms of blue and red, but go on
It isn't inside the businesses that the majority of spread is occurring, with the possible exception of bars that don't follow the social distancing rules. The health officials in Orange County have continually said that they don't see any major issues related to the theme parks and you can bet they are looking for them.
Again, the “majority of spread” is different from “unnecessary spread,” and a place that brings people together from far and wide together is the opposite of responsible during a pandemic.
"The government" (in any country) can't "keep everybody safe" and have a functioning society. They are mutually exclusive goals. The best they can do without a vaccine is "flatten the curve" to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed with acceptable restrictions.
Nonsense. The government’s job is to keep its citizens safe and keep society functioning. It’s short-term, compartmentalized thinking that has made our response to the virus inadequate.
Everybody staying at home for a few months is not acceptable to the vast majority of people. As a human being, just existing isn't living.
The virus does not care ”what is acceptable to the vast majority of people.” Staying home as much as possible (not as much as is comfortable) is not “just existing.” “Living” does not require trips to Disney World, in-person schooling, or even mask-free interactions with others. If we could convince selfish and entitled people to willingly endure some amount of sacrifice and discomfort, we could get the numbers down and reopen things safely.
Just as an aside, and I think I'm allowed to point this out now that Zeke Emanuel will be on the COVID task force next year, as of the latest report for Florida:

82% of COVID deaths were people 65 and over
61% of COVID deaths were people 75 and over (for Zeke's planning)
32% of COVID deaths were people 85 and over
40% of COVID deaths were nursing home residents

It is very clear who is most at risk from this disease. It isn't just an across the board plague. If somehow nobody over 64 contracted COVID (this is a hypothetical so please don't quote out of context to argue), it would be hard to notice that the virus existed. There is no need to "keep everybody safe."
Older people might be at greater risk of dying from the disease, but we’re all at great risk at spreading the disease. I want us to protect the most vulnerable among us, which doesn’t just include old people, but also people of color, people with asthma, etc. Besides their suffering and risk of death, we still don’t know the long-term effects of the virus, but they’re not looking good.

So yes, I think people need to start seeing that we’re all connected, and that our entire society is at risk if we don’t take the virus more seriously than we have been. All of us. And this means staying home unless it’s absolutely necessary that we go out, and following all of the protocols.
 

_caleb

Well-Known Member
Seeing all sorts of people who initially resisted wearing masks and distancing, then begrudgingly participated (half way), then got “tired” and stopped trying, and are now saying, “see, it doesn’t matter what we do, the virus is going to spread!”

Those who are not taking this seriously are making it harder on those of us who do.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
People said they would at least commit to not letting the hospitals get overwhelmed. It looks like people have failed at that. I guess everyone just thought that since they didn't max out before it was impossible for it to happen at all? I saw an article last night about a hospital that was canceling elective surgeries again. But when I went to try and find it, it turned up MANY hospitals are canceling elective surgeries again because of the staffing issues. Nursing home deaths are rising again too. So the "protect the old people" strategy isn't going to turn out so great either, is it.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
It’s obvious that we see things differently. And you have been fairly consistent as you’ve posted in this thread. I wish you could see how things are interconnected.

Theme parks may not be causing most of the spread (we don’t actually know how much of the spread is happening at theme parks), but it is clearly not essential for people to go to them during a pandemic. The key to limiting the spread is limiting unnecessary proximity to others.

No, my opinion is basically, “how can you unnecessarily do the thing that’s killing people when many people don’t have a choice?”

By this point, all the deaths from COVID were preventable. Maybe at first we weren’t ready or we didn’t have enough information. But our failure to respond adequately put these deaths in the “preventable” category. Also, I’m not talking about “total lockdowns” or “getting the cases down to zero.” The curve is not flat. We could do better, and we’re not.

You don’t know how much spread is happening at WDW (“significant” or otherwise). It’s a moral decision because it’s putting money before people in proximity with others unnecessarily.

Not sure why you see the world in terms of blue and red, but go on

Again, the “majority of spread” is different from “unnecessary spread,” and a place that brings people together from far and wide together is the opposite of responsible during a pandemic.

Nonsense. The government’s job is to keep its citizens safe and keep society functioning. It’s short-term, compartmentalized thinking that has made our response to the virus inadequate.

The virus does not care ”what is acceptable to the vast majority of people.” Staying home as much as possible (not as much as is comfortable) is not “just existing.” “Living” does not require trips to Disney World, in-person schooling, or even mask-free interactions with others. If we could convince selfish and entitled people to willingly endure some amount of sacrifice and discomfort, we could get the numbers down and reopen things safely.

Older people might be at greater risk of dying from the disease, but we’re all at great risk at spreading the disease. I want us to protect the most vulnerable among us, which doesn’t just include old people, but also people of color, people with asthma, etc. Besides their suffering and risk of death, we still don’t know the long-term effects of the virus, but they’re not looking good.

So yes, I think people need to start seeing that we’re all connected, and that our entire society is at risk if we don’t take the virus more seriously than we have been. All of us. And this means staying home unless it’s absolutely necessary that we go out, and following all of the protocols.

I'm not going to go point by point because it is pointless since you and I are at far opposite ends of the opinion spectrum. You don't get to decide what "living life" means to me. To me, things like WDW are important to actually living my life. Staying alive and only doing essential activities is not living.

I realize the number is very large, but even if every single person in the US was infected (which isn't possible because herd immunity would happen at some point), somewhere around 0.2% of the population would die from it and maybe another 0.2% would die because they wouldn't be able to get needed medical care in the short term while this happened which would be over the course of 2-3 months. While 0.4% of 330+ million people is a lot, even doing absolutely nothing, well over 99% of the population would be "protected."

You contradict yourself when you say that all COVID deaths are preventable but that you aren't talking about total lockdowns. If you don't have total lockdowns, there will still be plenty of deaths and therefore not nearly all of them are preventable.

To me, and even others that disagree with me on a lot of this topic, "essential activities only" and "lockdowns" are not very different from each other. The former may not require me to stay locked in my home but it is still locking down my life.

Realistically, my life span is another 40 years or so (I'm 45) and who knows how many of those years will be "good years" where I am physically and mentally capable of doing the things I enjoy like going to WDW or dining out. I am not willing to waste a good percentage of the rest of my life by voluntarily not doing things I enjoy "for the greater good." Even waiting for vaccine distribution is still several months best case. 6 months is over 1% of my remaining likely "good" life span.

I don't have an issue doing them with social distancing protocols and will even wear a face covering to do them but what you suggest I will not do voluntarily.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
This has been more than “a couple months” of inconvenience. We’re about to enter month nine, with no definitive end date in sight. Most people I’ve seen in public have complied with wearing masks and social distancing. Yet the number of cases is still skyrocketing. Am I really supposed to believe that this is mainly due to people holding private get-togethers? The majority of people, including myself, are fed up with everything. We’ve followed the rules in place regarding mask-wearing and social distancing. We’ve cancelled all of our vacation plans this year. We can’t attend sporting events or concerts. There aren’t even any new worthwhile movies to attend. As the calendar is soon to roll to 2021, there is no relief on the horizon. We’re sick of this. We’re burnt out. When life for eight months (and counting) consists of going to work and virtually nothing else to look forward to, it’s hard to have patience.
It’s hard to have patience, but we have to bear down and hold on for a little longer. It’s almost inconceivable to me that this will last at least a full year. I can’t wrap my head around not having a traditional Thanksgiving or Christmas with my extended family. For the first time in my adult life I went a full calendar year without going anywhere overnight (vacation, visiting family or work trip). That’s one of the hardest parts for me, I know...first world problems, but travel is my thing I splurge on.

I plan to make up for lost time next year. God willing a vaccine gets approval and if enough people take it we could round the corner on this pandemic and finally get out of it. That’s the hope you have to cling to and use to get through each day. I booked a rental house in the outer banks for the end of June. That’s a flexible vacation that can remain Covid safe if needed where we just do takeout and cook food at the house and really just go to the beach and hang at the house or if the vaccine has already hit then it can be a no restrictions trip with eating out and other activities. I am also planning a WDW trip for August. To me it’s still fun to plan for that and if for some reason it doesn't work out so be it. I am hoping that WDW has some return to something closer to normal by then. If not I may postpone or maybe cancel.

On the holiday front we already made plans to have our traditional Christmas gathering at my house in the summer. I may even put out decorations and a tree and the whole works. Christmas in July 🎅. I have a few families that we regularly see for New Years Eve. We already talked about doing the same thing for NYE. After we are all vaccinated and it’s clear to get together picking a Saturday night and doing a NYE party. Drinks, food, count down to midnight,etc.

Right now sucks. I am very thankful that me and my family are healthy and safe and that I can still work, but I’m not gonna lie, it still sucks. It’s very disappointing to see people disregard requirements and recommendations but we all need to try to ignore that and continue to do what’s right. There’s a light at the end of the tunnel but we just need to hang on a little while longer to get there.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The virus does not care ”what is acceptable to the vast majority of people.” Staying home as much as possible (not as much as is comfortable) is not “just existing.” “Living” does not require trips to Disney World, in-person schooling, or even mask-free interactions with others. If we could convince selfish and entitled people to willingly endure some amount of sacrifice and discomfort, we could get the numbers down and reopen things safely.
Just one more point to add to this. From a practical prospective if we put aside the health issues (cases, hospitalizations, long term complications, deaths) and just look at the economy its clear to me that many people really don’t care much about the economy. We have people saying things like we are social creatures and we need to do whatever we want or we aren’t living. Many of those people also claim that we have to remove restrictions because businesses will go under and we need to worry about the economy. The fact of the matter is many of the people railing on about the economy as a reason to remove Covid restrictions are the same people getting together for parties or gatherings in private homes or at bars and restaurants without masks. Their actions are resulting in surges in cases and full hospitals and it is now heading towards further pull backs and businesses being shut back down. So if any of these people really gave a rat’s behind about small businesses or unemployed bartenders and waitresses they would not be contributing to virus spread and they would be railing on against people doing those things. The truth of the matter is many of those people don’t really care about those businesses or workers, they don’t care about the mental health of other people, they don’t really care about others who are unemployed, they just want to do what they want to do but they don’t want to be called selfish for that so they look for a narrative that makes them seem altruistic instead of self serving. So at least saying if we can’t do this stuff that’s not living it’s just existing, that’s a more honest rationale than attempting to claim it’s for the economy.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
It’s almost inconceivable to me that this will last at least a full year. I can’t wrap my head around not having a traditional Thanksgiving or Christmas with my extended family.
Yep, for kicks I went back into the March/April part of this thread. We said at the time that all models are wrong, but some are useful. I'm not sure how true that ended up being. The most conservative models at he time showed cases going to near zero by August, mroe aggressive ones showed by May.

I'm sure there were a few that thought this was where we would be at Thanksgiving, but not many. Ohio has for some reason left their April 5th model up as the most current one on their DOH website (perhaps they realized the futility of modelling):

1605280536324.png
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Yep, for kicks I went back into the March/April part of this thread. We said at the time that all models are wrong, but some are useful. I'm not sure how true that ended up being. The most conservative models at he time showed cases going to near zero by August, mroe aggressive ones showed by May.

I'm sure there were a few that thought this was where we would be at Thanksgiving, but not many. Ohio has for some reason left their April 5th model up as the most current one on their DOH website (perhaps they realized the futility of modelling):

View attachment 512579
You're not seriously going to use modeling of the initial wave, that they said wouldn't be valid past August, as proof the models didn't know what they were doing?

Everyone with an ID background thought we would back here, which is why they've been yelling their heads off about a fall/winter resurgence, and multiple waves.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Yep, for kicks I went back into the March/April part of this thread. We said at the time that all models are wrong, but some are useful. I'm not sure how true that ended up being. The most conservative models at he time showed cases going to near zero by August, mroe aggressive ones showed by May.

I'm sure there were a few that thought this was where we would be at Thanksgiving, but not many. Ohio has for some reason left their April 5th model up as the most current one on their DOH website (perhaps they realized the futility of modelling):

View attachment 512579
I remember back in April hoping that WDW would re-open in July or August business as usual with cases down to almost zero based on the models. I had hoped to get my August trip in. I was one of the people who thought WDW wouldn’t re-open as long as masks were needed and would wait until cases dropped enough to not need Covid restrictions. Who knew that time would never come in 2020 at all :(. I just hope that we aren’t here a year from now saying remember how this time last year we thought the vaccine would be out in the Spring and the pandemic would be over in the summer or by the end of 2021. I’ve been wrong out about so much related to this pandemic, a broken clock is right twice a day...let’s hope this is one of those times :cool:
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
You're not seriously going to use modeling of the initial wave, that they said wouldn't be valid past August, as proof the models didn't know what they were doing?
Actually, yes I am. If you look at my post history, I used the modelling back in April as evidence that the models didn't know what they were doing. :)
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Considering that you state it is happening in all 50 states, how do you then blame it on putting "your faith in the wrong political leader?" The governors are in control of everything and the President doesn't actually have any power over them. You may say that he has influence over the Republican governors but certainly not over the Democrat governors. Yet every state is having issues to some degree.

Legal or not, Trump didn't seem to have any problem with trying to impose his will on states for issues he cared about.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
This really says it all right here.

If you think so, then it does. I put "for the greater good" in quotes because as long as I am abiding by social distancing and magic masks then what I do isn't hurting the greater good. There is only a miniscule chance I am infected, asymptomatic and contagious to start with. If I'm abiding by the protocols, there is an infinitesimal chance that I am doing anything detrimental to somebody else.
 
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