Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
So again just don't do anything. In Erie PA it wasn't government officials handing out masks, it was people that live in Erie doing it.
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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
No. It means I think anyone who spins anything positive from this at the moment are full of it.
kong1802
Well-Known Member
carolina_yankee
Well-Known Member
I agree with your point. However, the numbers do indicate a potential easing. Using the 14 day numbers posted in the other thread of daily updates, the previous 7-day period had 82,257 new cases and the current 7 day period has 73,792 cases, about 9,000 less. Spot positivity is all over the map (and is up again today, as are new cases compared to the last two days). Deaths are increasing, but are also a lagging indicator, so would likely increase and then decrease well after new cases started decreasing.
My whole thing with Disney closing is I don't see the point unless other places also close. Nearly a third of the nation and most of the world can't get there anyway. Now, if staying open isn't working financially, that's a different but related argument. If their protocols aren't working and they are the source of infections that has so far escaped the public radar, then sure.
Regardless, I'm sure Disney is analyzing numbers every which way, financial and health, and will make a decision that is in their best interest, and hopefully everybody else's, whatever that decision may be.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
The data is all over the place probably due to the lags and possibly errors in reporting, but if we are to believe this data, the trend is percent positive is going down. This is good! You can’t really argue against that when you consider FL is opening and not locked in their houses.
Examine the logic of what you're saying -- Yes, if there were never vaccines and never improved treatments... then the effect might be just to spread it out.. and the people will die in 2021 and 2022, instead of everyone dying in 2020.
But if you develop vaccines and improved treatments -- And you "spread" those infections out so they would occur in 2021 or 2022, instead of right now -- Then you have vaccines and improved treatments, you save millions of lives!
Lots of "what ifs." But our scientists are very confident they will have at least a partially effective vaccine by late 2020, early 2021.
At times., Spain was doing far more testing than Florida. At times maybe less. I wouldn't try to make it an exact comparison, down to the exact number of cases. It's very very very clear that Spain's case load was driven way way down.
There are so many factors at play that contribute to death numbers.... improved therapies will reduce death numbers, even as cases increase. Further, as you said above, I don't know whether cases are actually increasing in Spain now, or just testing is capturing a greater percentage of the cases. And we know, if more of the spread tilts younger, deaths may still somewhat decline. Finally, we know deaths are a lagging indicator -- the case increase in Spain is all over the last 1-2 weeks, so wouldn't expect to see it impacting death numbers yet.
Sweden -- something is very wrong with their data. They stopped reporting most of their data. And their strategy resulted in the absolute highest mortality in their region.
Now as to Spain's recent increase -- When did I say it wasn't a concern? A single lockdown, even done right, doesn't necessarily become a permanent long term solution. One of the reasons you keep testing (and contact tracing) is to quickly identify and respond to potential spikes. Depending on the type of spike, it may require different responses. May require a further lockdown in a more specific location, may require a re-evaluation of the operation of a specific industry, etc.
schuelma
Well-Known Member
Its all over the place and any decline is very slight. Its certainly not clearly trending down. If this is Florida's new normal for the summer, we will see weekly deaths over ONE THOUSAND in Florida alone for weeks.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I was using Sweden as compared to a full strict lockdown in a debate with @havoc315 not as a be all, end all conclusion on the Swedish exact measures.
There's nothing "positive" about the situation. However, it isn't the worst pandemic to ever hit humanity and isn't the apocalypse either. Life doesn't need to completely stop in response and WDW can operate as currently configured without endangering the population.
I don’t think anyone has suggested that?
so facts are out the window, now moving to insults?
Also how is sharing actual facts spin?
See previously.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Exactly. I wouldn't have had to go through the nonsense in the other thread about picking August 1st to evaluate if the rise in cases in June, translated to deaths in July if said person had said in June that deaths would rise in July, instead of implying that we would have already started seeing it in June, and we didn't so it wasn't going to happen. And dissenters were just "two more weeks"-ing it, looking for data that was never going to come. If the intent wasn't to deny that deaths would rise in July and "not remain steady" as presented in one of the posts, than said person did a terrible job explaining his position. Also, now we know, due to the increased focus on actual day of death, in FL, we can see that deaths jumped from 30s to 50s around 6/21, and have gone higher since. When all of this was occurring on 6/28, nowhere did said person mention "reporting delays" as a reason why reported deaths had not gone up or present the likelihood that they had already started going up, and we just didn't know about it.
FWIW, I was late. I thought we wouldn't see the inflection point, for the USA, until the week of 7/10-7/17. According to the 7-day average on Worldometers, the low point occurred on 7/6. For Florida, specifically, the low point of the 7 day average was 6/19 so any of the weeks following, would have shown an increasing trendline.
I originally posted this, as a prediction based on what the timeline might look like. When we could expect the rise in deaths:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...eral-discussion.963478/page-1488#post-9297340
And one of my follow ups:
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
Math not wrong, my statement is what the payments are set from the government of Florida , not whether are not the system is working for some indivduals. I know personally know many that are getting that much weekly. FL unemployment does not last long enough to make anywhere near the amount...
And what I got was:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...eral-discussion.963478/page-1508#post-9300774
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
I'm honestly frustrated because I'm going crazy in lockdown and now it looks like we are going to lockdown again and be under restrictions for longer than we had to be. We’re not going back into lockdown. There is going to be a pull back in the re-opening in some places but it’s very limited...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
Math not wrong, my statement is what the payments are set from the government of Florida , not whether are not the system is working for some indivduals. I know personally know many that are getting that much weekly. FL unemployment does not last long enough to make anywhere near the amount...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
And that 7-day rolling figure is a very high number... way higher than it should be. One day isn't cause for alarm, but this number just made the 7-day go even higher. I see it as alarming as this positive rate is not typical for Sunday stats. Not at all. Sunday is typically the "numbers are...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
I'm honestly frustrated because I'm going crazy in lockdown and now it looks like we are going to lockdown again and be under restrictions for longer than we had to be. We’re not going back into lockdown. There is going to be a pull back in the re-opening in some places but it’s very limited...
rle4lunch
Well-Known Member
Some of you guys need to reevaluate your "working from home" policy, cuz clearly you're not being productive at your day job if you're posting 1500 word posts every 5 minutes.
As for me, I do a drive by to see the fireworks every once in a while, then go check my work crap.
As for me, I do a drive by to see the fireworks every once in a while, then go check my work crap.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The subject of this thread sort of suggests that.
kong1802
Well-Known Member
Exactly. I wouldn't have had to go through the nonsense in the other thread about picking August 1st to evaluate if the rise in cases in June, translated to deaths in July if said person had said in June that deaths would rise in July, instead of implying that we would have already started seeing it in June, and we didn't so it wasn't going to happen. And dissenters were just "two more weeks"-ing it, looking for data that was never going to come. If the intent wasn't to deny that deaths would rise in July and "not remain steady" as presented in one of the posts, than said person did a terrible job explaining his position. Also, now we know, due to the increased focus on actual day of death, in FL, we can see that deaths jumped from 30s to 50s around 6/21, and have gone higher since. When all of this was occurring on 6/28, nowhere did said person mention "reporting delays" as a reason why reported deaths had not gone up or present the likelihood that they had already started going up, and we just didn't know about it.
FWIW, I was late. I thought we wouldn't see the inflection point, for the USA, until the week of 7/10-7/17. According to the 7-day average on Worldometers, the low point occurred on 7/6. For Florida, specifically, the low point of the 7 day average was 6/19 so any of the weeks following, would have shown an increasing trendline.
I originally posted this, as a prediction based on what the timeline might look like. When we could expect the rise in deaths:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...eral-discussion.963478/page-1488#post-9297340
And one of my follow ups:
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
Math not wrong, my statement is what the payments are set from the government of Florida , not whether are not the system is working for some indivduals. I know personally know many that are getting that much weekly. FL unemployment does not last long enough to make anywhere near the amount...forums.wdwmagic.com
And what I got was:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...eral-discussion.963478/page-1508#post-9300774
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
I'm honestly frustrated because I'm going crazy in lockdown and now it looks like we are going to lockdown again and be under restrictions for longer than we had to be. We’re not going back into lockdown. There is going to be a pull back in the re-opening in some places but it’s very limited...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
Math not wrong, my statement is what the payments are set from the government of Florida , not whether are not the system is working for some indivduals. I know personally know many that are getting that much weekly. FL unemployment does not last long enough to make anywhere near the amount...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
And that 7-day rolling figure is a very high number... way higher than it should be. One day isn't cause for alarm, but this number just made the 7-day go even higher. I see it as alarming as this positive rate is not typical for Sunday stats. Not at all. Sunday is typically the "numbers are...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
I'm honestly frustrated because I'm going crazy in lockdown and now it looks like we are going to lockdown again and be under restrictions for longer than we had to be. We’re not going back into lockdown. There is going to be a pull back in the re-opening in some places but it’s very limited...
The comedy of it all...
Seeing "Well if the deaths stay flat or drop how will you spin this?" and then now "We can't trust the death numbers".
They have been so far off trying to spin positivity. Then when those stats are no longer positive, well, they can't be trusted anyway. lol
kong1802
Well-Known Member
Thanks mom.
wendysue
Well-Known Member
We got them last August and then went again in January, so we did get 2 - 5 day trips, but we had scheduled for May and July which didn't happen. We booked August and November before booking stopped, but August is not happening. I'll keep my fingers crossed now for November, but not holding out much hope for things getting better virus wise.
Exactly. I wouldn't have had to go through the nonsense in the other thread about picking August 1st to evaluate if the rise in cases in June, translated to deaths in July if said person had said in June that deaths would rise in July, instead of implying that we would have already started seeing it in June, and we didn't so it wasn't going to happen. And dissenters were just "two more weeks"-ing it, looking for data that was never going to come. If the intent wasn't to deny that deaths would rise in July and "not remain steady" as presented in one of the posts, than said person did a terrible job explaining his position. Also, now we know, due to the increased focus on actual day of death, in FL, we can see that deaths jumped from 30s to 50s around 6/21, and have gone higher since. When all of this was occurring on 6/28, nowhere did said person mention "reporting delays" as a reason why reported deaths had not gone up or present the likelihood that they had already started going up, and we just didn't know about it.
FWIW, I was late. I thought we wouldn't see the inflection point, for the USA, until the week of 7/10-7/17. According to the 7-day average on Worldometers, the low point occurred on 7/6. For Florida, specifically, the low point of the 7 day average was 6/19 so any of the weeks following, would have shown an increasing trendline.
I originally posted this, as a prediction based on what the timeline might look like. When we could expect the rise in deaths:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...eral-discussion.963478/page-1488#post-9297340
And one of my follow ups:
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
Math not wrong, my statement is what the payments are set from the government of Florida , not whether are not the system is working for some indivduals. I know personally know many that are getting that much weekly. FL unemployment does not last long enough to make anywhere near the amount...
And what I got was:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...eral-discussion.963478/page-1508#post-9300774
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
I'm honestly frustrated because I'm going crazy in lockdown and now it looks like we are going to lockdown again and be under restrictions for longer than we had to be. We’re not going back into lockdown. There is going to be a pull back in the re-opening in some places but it’s very limited...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
Math not wrong, my statement is what the payments are set from the government of Florida , not whether are not the system is working for some indivduals. I know personally know many that are getting that much weekly. FL unemployment does not last long enough to make anywhere near the amount...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
And that 7-day rolling figure is a very high number... way higher than it should be. One day isn't cause for alarm, but this number just made the 7-day go even higher. I see it as alarming as this positive rate is not typical for Sunday stats. Not at all. Sunday is typically the "numbers are...
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
I'm honestly frustrated because I'm going crazy in lockdown and now it looks like we are going to lockdown again and be under restrictions for longer than we had to be. We’re not going back into lockdown. There is going to be a pull back in the re-opening in some places but it’s very limited...
I guess since you highlighted my posts you are addressing me?
Still stand by what I said, there hasn't been exponential growth in deaths, it has gone up yes, and appears to have peaked back on July 8 or 13th but yes still to early to tell for sure. It will still go up a bit more.
I still say the comparison to Iran is still very problematic. the trends in AR and TX are much more relative.
Again , I have never said any of those things.