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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Except in the data that I posted which shows exactly that. Since I am not interested in needless internet arguments, I was curious about differences in the data collection methodologies and looked at the underlying data sources used to generate these figures. Although the New York Times Covid tracker number is discrepant with the numbers you posted, this is because the number you posted is a subset of the NY Times data that also includes deaths reported to local governments. Again, this is factual and not a matter of opinion.

There is a factual difference in methodology which has led to slightly different absolute numbers representing similar trends. The whole point of responding to the 100 number was to simply point out that the original person you responded to and tried to correct had, in fact, shared a number that is credible and available from a source with good data practices. What ultimately matters here is the overall trends, which as we should all agree by now, are not good.

The really important point here is that, when you're interested in understanding an unfamiliar dataset, the steps you take are to understand how it was collected and how reliable it is. This is very different to what you do if you already know the point you want to make before you do the research - where if you've concluded in advance that the number must be low, you find a source you agree with and post only that link.



There is a very large body of evidence that undercounting occurs, especially in the day to day data. is because of time lags and (when it comes to cases) failures in the adequacy of testing. There is a wide variety of scientific literature (not news media articles) which measure the degree of undercounting, so that the public health response can be better managed. We know undercounting is a problem, while over counting is not.



That is incorrect, yes.

"Reported" in this case means reported to government agencies/listed as cause of death/etc. not "reported" as in, "news reporter".

Dished up a big plate of word salad there, that pretty much doesn’t say anything. That is impressive.

Although the New York Times Covid tracker number is discrepant with the numbers you posted, this is because the number you posted is a subset of the NY Times data that also includes deaths reported to local governments.

So you are saying The NY Times and/or COVID tracker number is more definitive and a better data set than state and CDC direct info. That the cdc number is a subset of The NY Times? the CDC does include local numbers. But if it makes you feel better to use non government sources and media companies go for it. Doesn’t change the facts. There is zero data that 100 or more people have ever died so far in 24 hours in Florida due to Covid. Zero nada, none, and you have shown me and data showing that , even using Nytimes data etc.

It might happen

Reported versus the actual number that died that day. Not reported like whatever definition you came up with.

Not quite going to get it I see. But alas. Moving on.
 

Polkadotdress

Well-Known Member
Yes that could be the case, but the trends shows that most deaths are only backfilled and spread out to not affect the numbers on any given day that much. It also appears that the excess deaths that were unaccounted for are diminishing so there are not as many to back date any more. The past two weeks there was a jump in backfilled deaths because of the loosing of the death with Covid classification that happened in mid June. Once CDC loosened that classification they were able to work through the excess deaths and code them correctly, hence the jump in backfilled deaths the past few weeks. Now the number of unclassified deaths are lower the amount of backfills death will decrease.

Wait, so you’re saying the numbers are back filled, but moving forward they won’t be back filled, so 7 days from now when we hit 150+ consistently the reason will be...???
 

October82

Well-Known Member
Dished up a big plate of word salad there, that pretty much doesn’t say anything. That is impressive.

I'm not interested in winning arguments on the internet, so if you don't think I've said anything worthwhile, that's cool. I hope others find them meaningful since that's why I'm posting.

So you are saying The NY Times and/or COVID tracker number is more definitive and a better data set than state and CDC direct info.

I'm saying what I said there, that the Florida DOH dataset is a subset of the data on the New York Times page. Which to the best of my understanding from looking at both datasets and the available documentation is correct.

But if it makes you feel better to use non government sources and media companies go for it. Doesn’t change the facts.

No, nothing we argue about will change the facts. What the facts are is that the New York Times pulls the data directly from the reports to a variety of government agencies, while the page you linked to is more limited in its intent. Again, the first thing you should do if you're actually interested in understanding a dataset is to understand the methods that produced it and how different datasets have taken different approaches. That's what I've tried to do, and it has given me new insights I wouldn't have otherwise had.

There is zero data that 100 or more people have ever died so far in 24 hours in Florida due to Covid. Zero nada, none, and you have shown me and data showing that , even using Nytimes data etc.

I'll let this speak for itself.

It might happen

Reported versus the actual number that died that day. Not reported like whatever definition you came up with.

The definition of "reported" isn't something I came up with. My description of the methodology that produced this dataset is in the documentation for the data.

Not quite going to get it I see. But alas. Moving on.

There's nothing to get here aside from the fact that some datasets are subsets of others, subject to reporting inaccuracies and time delays, etc. And that's the same point you're making as well - you just prefer the Florida government link you shared to the combined Federal, state, local dataset the New York Times compiles and publishes. Neither is better or worse than the other, they're just different and can probably answer different questions if you take the time to dig deeper into them.

This should be an obvious point to make, but it seems like it needs to be said. If you feel like you these threads are more about defending your views than learning about things and discussing, then it probably is time to take a break from posting. This whole discussion came back to the simple point that according to reliable datasets, the number of deaths has been over 100 per day. This is just a fact about the number of deaths given the reporting and collection methodology. There's not much more to say about it.
 

Basil of Baker Street

Well-Known Member
I'm not interested in winning arguments on the internet, so if you don't think I've said anything worthwhile, that's cool. I hope others find them meaningful since that's why I'm posting.



I'm saying what I said there, that the Florida DOH dataset is a subset of the data on the New York Times page. Which to the best of my understanding from looking at both datasets and the available documentation is correct.



No, nothing we argue about will change the facts. What the facts are is that the New York Times pulls the data directly from the reports to a variety of government agencies, while the page you linked to is more limited in its intent. Again, the first thing you should do if you're actually interested in understanding a dataset is to understand the methods that produced it and how different datasets have taken different approaches. That's what I've tried to do, and it has given me new insights I wouldn't have otherwise had.



I'll let this speak for itself.



The definition of "reported" isn't something I came up with. My description of the methodology that produced this dataset is in the documentation for the data.



There's nothing to get here aside from the fact that some datasets are subsets of others, subject to reporting inaccuracies and time delays, etc. And that's the same point you're making as well - you just prefer the Florida government link you shared to the combined Federal, state, local dataset the New York Times compiles and publishes. Neither is better or worse than the other, they're just different and can probably answer different questions if you take the time to dig deeper into them.

This should be an obvious point to make, but it seems like it needs to be said. If you feel like you these threads are more about defending your views than learning about things and discussing, then it probably is time to take a break from posting. This whole discussion came back to the simple point that according to reliable datasets, the number of deaths has been over 100 per day. This is just a fact about the number of deaths given the reporting and collection methodology. There's not much more to say about it.
Looks like you're trying to win an argument. Just sayin'
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Wait, so you’re saying the numbers are back filled, but moving forward they won’t be back filled, so 7 days from now when we hit 150+ consistently the reason will be...???
Yes, not back filled as much. This is because the pool of excess deaths to code Covid under the new rules have diminished, less of a backlog of unclassified deaths. If it hits 150, yes less numbers will be backfilled for the 2-3 months range, ithere still will be some due to data lags will be much more heavily in the < 2 week range.

I do thinks deaths sadly will go up a bit more, like I have been saying, for a week or so and then start falling if trends stay the same.
 

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
Dished up a big plate of word salad there, that pretty much doesn’t say anything. That is impressive.

Although the New York Times Covid tracker number is discrepant with the numbers you posted, this is because the number you posted is a subset of the NY Times data that also includes deaths reported to local governments.

So you are saying The NY Times and/or COVID tracker number is more definitive and a better data set than state and CDC direct info. That the cdc number is a subset of The NY Times? the CDC does include local numbers. But if it makes you feel better to use non government sources and media companies go for it. Doesn’t change the facts. There is zero data that 100 or more people have ever died so far in 24 hours in Florida due to Covid. Zero nada, none, and you have shown me and data showing that , even using Nytimes data etc.

It might happen

Reported versus the actual number that died that day. Not reported like whatever definition you came up with.

Not quite going to get it I see. But alas. Moving on.

“So far” is not very confidence building. Theoretically, everything could level off and never top the 100 threshold but I can’t imagine a real world argument where that’s likely. Florida‘s in for a rough 3-4 more weeks at least as hospitalizations reflect infections, and deaths reflect hospitalizations. I hope the percentages aren’t what they were in the NE, and if they keep it out of LTC’s, they may not be. But disruption due to illness and isolation in a state that isn’t fully prepared to manage this is going to continue.
 

Parker in NYC

Well-Known Member
“So far” is not very confidence building. Theoretically, everything could level off and never top the 100 threshold but I can’t imagine a real world argument where that’s likely. Florida‘s in for a rough 3-4 more weeks at least as hospitalizations reflect infections, and deaths reflect hospitalizations. I hope the percentages aren’t what they were in the NE, and if they keep it out of LTC’s, they may not be. But disruption due to illness and isolation in a state that isn’t fully prepared to manage this is going to continue.

I put a lot of faith in my dad’s take on everything Covid. He’s been right up to this point, and he said Florida numbers will continue rising and sustaining through October (at the earliest) unless lockdowns happen. He predicted October for indoor dining in NYC back in April, and he’s still on track for that thus far.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
The Orlando Sentinel had to explain the difference today between reported deaths and when it actually occurred. Lots of people are confused about it, even some here ;) , maybe they explained it better.

The day a death is reported and the day the death actually occurred are not the same.

 
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Parker in NYC

Well-Known Member
Sadly, one projection set suggests that would be optimistic.


Unless Mask usage becomes nearly universal.

It may be that Florida will Florida and my Dad is too much of an optimist in that regard. But I at least hope NYC keeps up the good work.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
I put a lot of faith in my dad’s take on everything Covid. He’s been right up to this point, and he said Florida numbers will continue rising and sustaining through October (at the earliest) unless lockdowns happen. He predicted October for indoor dining in NYC back in April, and he’s still on track for that thus far.
not doubting your dad ,who I imagine is a great guy, but that does explain a lot. :) not snark just having fun. I mean all these are opinions.
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
I have heard/figured that tough descisions are going to be made by Tuesday. Not happening Tuesday, but decided on as things fluidly change day to day. Anyone think it is that closer?
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
need more context, the three w's would help

Well those are answered I figured by the title of the thread, difficult I know since it things frequently fear into attacks or off topic. If rumors of closing down by some point in August again are true, these big decisions have to have discussions to prep the possiblity with communication soon. It could all be scuttle, I was just asking to see if anyone heard anything similar.
 

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
Well those are answered I figured by the title of the thread, difficult I know since it things frequently fear into attacks or off topic. If rumors of closing down by some point in August again are true, these big decisions have to have discussions to prep the possiblity with communication soon. It could all be scuttle, I was just asking to see if anyone heard anything similar.
I say if death toll hits 200 in a day this week...its shutdown.
 

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