You know, the more I have been thinking about it - I disagree on this - because while the overall box office year hasn't been great, even though Disney has been part of it with, say, Pirates 5 not meeting domestic expectations - they have the product that people are most willing to schlep out to the theater to see. TLJ will undoubtedly be the biggest film of the year.
Why should theaters get more than 35% of the ticket sales? They didn't do a dang thing to make or market the film that is bringing the people in. A theater is still going to make far more with that 35% than they will make off of any other film this year that they get the more standard 50% of. It's not Disney's job to subsidize the lack of profit for theaters because of other studio's flops. And let's not forget the other revenue stream - the $7 hot dogs, the $5 sodas, etc. Or that the ongoing costs of running a theater are minimal - they don't have to employ professional projectionists anymore, after the initial investment in digital equipment, already made years ago, it takes much less maintenance than traditional film projection, digital ticketing means they can employ less people at the box office, etc.
Right now, Disney is making the premium product - the films that bring people out to the theaters so people can watch them on "the big screen" as opposed to the smaller one at home. Particularly now that all films are digitally projected, theaters don't even have the advantage of better picture quality - theatrical projection is 4K, and 4K is increasingly available from the comfort and convenience of your couch. Even at standard HD resolutions, to the eye of most consumers there isn't even a difference. So why shouldn't they get a premium price for selling that product?
The only thing I take issue with is the 4-week rule, because it does adversely affect the smattering of truly independent single-screen theaters out there. I do think Disney should be making exceptions for those, because a single-screen theater in a small town needs to change films a bit more frequently. That said, the "penalty" is what, another 5% - so even for those small theaters, if they choose to only show for, say, two weeks - getting 30% of ticket sales for absolutely full theaters for a full two-weeks is going to be more profitable than half-full theaters showing anything else. And the way the agreement is worded, it's not automatic - Disney can choose to enforce it, or not. We are really talking a handful of theaters comparatively, and I won't be surprised if Disney does end up making some exceptions and only enforcing it with the chains.
The reason there is a stink about this really doesn't have to do with Disney - the theaters all know that TLJ is going to make their year when it comes to profits, even at these percentages - it's about precedent. They don't want other studios to follow suit. I don't think that fear is incredibly well-founded, as with few exceptions no other studio has the demand for their product like Disney does. And certainly not consistently like Disney.
TL;DR? The theaters should just shut-up and say, "Thank you Sir Mouse, please, may we have another? - because to be honest, the stigma of "direct to video" - or "direct to digital", now - is vanishing quickly, as are the benefits of seeing it on the "big screen", which is increasingly relying on a romantic notion at this point. If Disney wanted to charge me the same $30 I'm going to pay for a couple of tickets to watch TLJ once in the theater, to instead view it in my home in December, even as much of a Star Wars fan I am - I'd probably pay it versus dealing with the hassle of having to go out to a theater as it is. At this point, the biggest reason I'm going to the theater at all to see it is to avoid spoilers.
