Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DisneyWarrior27]

Now, interestingly, much like how #Moana2 was going to be a Disney+ series before eventually being re-routed to a theatrical release, the live-action #LiloAndStitch was going to be a Disney+ Original Movie before eventually being re-routed to a theatrical release and now that means we’ve got 2 for 2 in terms of Disney making a billion each on their two films after they almost ended up being Disney+ releases.

So, that leads me to the ultimate question. Will Disney be 3 for 3 w/ this business strategy when Star Wars: The Mandalorian And Grogu arrives only in theaters during Memorial Day Weekend 2026, especially now that it has a chance to do better business with Avengers: Doomsday delayed to a week before Christmas Day 2026?

We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Now, interestingly, much like how #Moana2 was going to be a Disney+ series before eventually being re-routed to a theatrical release, the live-action #LiloAndStitch was going to be a Disney+ Original Movie before eventually being re-routed to a theatrical release and now that means we’ve got 2 for 2 in terms of Disney making a billion each on their two films after they almost ended up being Disney+ releases.

So, that leads me to the ultimate question. Will Disney be 3 for 3 w/ this business strategy when Star Wars: The Mandalorian And Grogu arrives only in theaters during Memorial Day Weekend 2026, especially now that it has a chance to do better business with Avengers: Doomsday delayed to a week before Christmas Day 2026?

We’ll just have to wait and see.

That’s happened in the past too. It does sometimes.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The gameplan very well may be to use the streaming to finance the studio…full stop. That in no way…and never will…make the failure at the BO “palatable” to the management.

I always thought the plan was for D+ to offset diminishing TV revenue… D+ better be insanely profitable because now it seems to be the backup plan to offset losses from TV, theaters, and physical media sales.

 

[TP2000]

Okay, gang, weekend box office previews from Thursday are out. Not much news. Rinse and repeat. Blah, blah, blah.

Here's a radical thought; instead of sitting inside a movie theater this weekend, get outdoors and do something fun! Summer means fun, and it's time to be active outdoors. For instance, this evening I'm meeting friends at the Marine Room for sundowners and then supper, and we'll watch the sea kayakers doing their sunset paddling. Will I actually get out there in a sea kayak myself this weekend? Hell no. But I'll toast them from my barstool! Have a fun summer weekend gang!

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday July 17, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday July 17, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I always thought the plan was for D+ to offset diminishing TV revenue… D+ better be insanely profitable because now it seems to be the backup plan to offset losses from TV, theaters, and physical media sales.

It is and was the plan. And they aren’t there yet. I was shocked when I looked (as close to possible since they hide it) at the revenues from 2010 comped to 2024. They’re not there…not close to adjusted for inflation.

It was never about covering movies that get theatrical release…content…maybe…but not things which are supposed to arrives to stream at least at net zero.

It’s like lining up for a 70 yarder and the other team moves the goalpost behind you before the snap.

The Bloomberg hour to watch Len testa yesterday was all about Netflix (their endings day) and since I don’t track them…I had no idea how much of a bigger fish/player they are compared to the others…very insightful

Their market cap is more than Comcast, time warner and Disney COMBINED. The whole enterprise.

And the Netflix ceo has repeatedly pounded their content is key.

And content is expensive. So if you have to pay for more and more as the price goes up…what’s that do to your streaming profitability?

Mmmmm hmmmm

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Okay, gang, weekend box office previews from Thursday are out. Not much news. Rinse and repeat. Blah, blah, blah.

Here's a radical thought; instead of sitting inside a movie theater this weekend, get outdoors and do something fun! Summer means fun, and it's time to be active outdoors. For instance, this evening I'm meeting friends at the Marine Room for sundowners and then supper, and we'll watch the sea kayakers doing their sunset paddling. Will I actually get out there in a sea kayak myself this weekend? Hell no. But I'll toast them from my barstool! Have a fun summer weekend gang!

View attachment 871648

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday July 17, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday July 17, 2025

thenumbers.com

The heat has been oppressive and the violent T-storm activity rampant over the entire eastern US…which accounts for like 2/3 of the population?

Movies should benefit from that…to be honest

 

[DKampy]

Okay, gang, weekend box office previews from Thursday are out. Not much news. Rinse and repeat. Blah, blah, blah.

Here's a radical thought; instead of sitting inside a movie theater this weekend, get outdoors and do something fun! Summer means fun, and it's time to be active outdoors. For instance, this evening I'm meeting friends at the Marine Room for sundowners and then supper, and we'll watch the sea kayakers doing their sunset paddling. Will I actually get out there in a sea kayak myself this weekend? Hell no. But I'll toast them from my barstool! Have a fun summer weekend gang!

View attachment 871648

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday July 17, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday July 17, 2025

thenumbers.com

Ahhh…. The 90 + degree weather we have had this summer… I would rather be inside a movie theater…. And people say global warming is not a thing…. We have never seen such consistent days of a heat wave

 

[erasure fan1]

I always thought the plan was for D+ to offset diminishing TV revenue… D+ better be insanely profitable because now it seems to be the backup plan to offset losses from TV, theaters, and physical media sales.

Exactly. That's why some of us have made a big deal with box office. D+ took is taking away tv ad revenue, syndication fees, physical media sales.... And add on the diminished box office it seems like an uphill climb for sure. Maybe that is the grand plan, but it's hard to think that Disney is ok with as many movies flat lining or flopping as they've had. For one of the most money hungry companies I've ever seen, that just doesn't track in my opinion.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…. And people say global warming is not a thing….

…only the dumb people (I’ll own it)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Exactly. That's why some of us have made a big deal with box office. D+ took is taking away tv ad revenue, syndication fees, physical media sales.... And add on the diminished box office it seems like an uphill climb for sure. Maybe that is the grand plan, but it's hard to think that Disney is ok with as many movies flat lining or flopping as they've had. For one of the most money hungry companies I've ever seen, that just doesn't track in my opinion.

To be fair (and a lot of the reason behind the official excuses)…they had no choice

They lived off the espn gravy train for basically 20 years and only went to stream when they HAD to…which was probably too late to be most effective. Bob is neither creative, nor a risk taker…so he rode the horse until it collapsed

Disney has to accept flops…all studios do…
But it is never the goal…never was or will be the goal…and they don’t like it. Flops lose real money in a variety of ways…they are not “good” no matter how many excuses are tried. It’s just bad/rejected product and that’s not good for an IP driven business.

 

[Disney Irish]

It is and was the plan. And they aren’t there yet. I was shocked when I looked (as close to possible since they hide it) at the revenues from 2010 comped to 2024. They’re not there…not close to adjusted for inflation.

It was never about covering movies that get theatrical release…content…maybe…but not things which are supposed to arrives to stream at least at net zero.

It’s like lining up for a 70 yarder and the other team moves the goalpost behind you before the snap.

The Bloomberg hour to watch Len testa yesterday was all about Netflix (their endings day) and since I don’t track them…I had no idea how much of a bigger fish/player they are compared to the others…very insightful

Their market cap is more than Comcast, time warner and Disney COMBINED. The whole enterprise.

And the Netflix ceo has repeatedly pounded their content is key.

And content is expensive. So if you have to pay for more and more as the price goes up…what’s that do to your streaming profitability?

Mmmmm hmmmm

Netflix is rated as a tech company not a media company, that is why their market cap is so high compared to traditional media companies like Disney. It’s like Comcast is rated as a telecom not a media company, which gets usually lower capitalization overall.

 

[BlindChow]

[T]hat means we’ve got 2 for 2 in terms of Disney making a billion each on their two films after they almost ended up being Disney+ releases.

So, that leads me to the ultimate question. Will Disney be 3 for 3 w/ this business strategy when Star Wars: The Mandalorian And Grogu arrives only in theaters during Memorial Day Weekend 2026...?

Lilo/Moana and Star Wars have very different target demographics, so I don't think you can draw any logical box office predictions about the latter from the former.

And, obviously, the fact the Lilo & Moana were switched from a Disney+ debut to theatrical is NOT the reason they were successful.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Lilo/Moana and Star Wars have very different target demographics, so I don't think you can draw any logical box office predictions about the latter from the former.

And, obviously, the fact the Lilo & Moana were switched from a Disney+ debut to theatrical is NOT the reason they were successful.

I mean it’s still something to think about, knowing that Season 4 of The Mandalorian was reworked into The Mandalorian & Grogu for movie theaters with a lot of changes in the wake of making it a big screen movie, having to address Carl Weathers’ passing, adding in Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White to the movie, and more.

And knowing this sort of business decision worked with Moana 2 and live-action Lilo & Stitch, I have to imagine The Mandalorian and Grogu will fare similarly.

 

[Tha Realest]

I mean it’s still something to think about, knowing that Season 4 of The Mandalorian was reworked into The Mandalorian & Grogu for movie theaters with a lot of changes in the wake of making it a big screen movie, having to address Carl Weathers’ passing, adding in Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White to the movie, and more.

And knowing this sort of business decision worked with Moana 2 and live-action Lilo & Stitch, I have to imagine The Mandalorian and Grogu will fare similarly.

There’s still hope Disney course corrects and reshapes (yet again) this Tiana D+ series for a theatrical release with flourishes of hand-drawn animation!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lilo/Moana and Star Wars have very different target demographics, so I don't think you can draw any logical box office predictions about the latter from the former.

And, obviously, the fact the Lilo & Moana were switched from a Disney+ debut to theatrical is NOT the reason they were successful.

100%

It’s just that those characters sell swag…more then anything

If anything…they should never have been slated for direct to digital

They were wise to correct those mistakes and make money off them instead

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

100%

It’s just that those characters sell swag…more then anything

If anything…they should never have been slated for direct to digital

They were wise to correct those mistakes and make money off them instead

Grogu/Baby Yoda sells merch, too.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Grogu/Baby Yoda sells merch, too.

It does…

I think that one has a little bit more “obstacles” to climb…but it will be profitable in the theaters…no doubt

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

It does…

I think that one has a little bit more “obstacles” to climb…but it will be profitable in the theaters…no doubt

Glad we can agree there.

 

[DKampy]

So much for Horror being the hot genre right now…. I know What You Did Last Summer most optimistic gauge is 14 million this weekend…It will turn a profit thanks to it’s small 18 million budget… there will always be Horror movies… as they seem to keep the budgets lower then most other genre’s… but that is not a reason against Horror fatigue

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So much for Horror being the hot genre right now…. I know What You Did Last Summer most optimistic gauge is 14 million this weekend…It will turn a profit thanks to it’s small 18 million budget… there will always be Horror movies… as they seem to keep the budgets lower then most other genre’s… but that is not a reason against Horror fatigue

The originals were campy

I expected (hoped) Superman would grow in popularity this week and defy “norms”…word of mouth seems good