Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DisneyWarrior27]

This is surprisingly forward. Good.

Mmm hmm.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Given early word on Jurassic World: Rebirth has been sour (this past week it turned up as a one-off Mystery Movie screening at some Regal theaters, which is not typical for a tentpole picture, and those who saw it don't seem impressed) this might happen! Actually, Universal hasn't pushed it as hard as I expected they would, especially compared to the How to Train Your Dragon remake. And I've even seen new Wicked merchandise creeping onto the market or being made available for pre-orders in anticipation of its Part Two (which likely will be the one real, punchy challenger for the box office haul Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash are out for - I think all three will get along just fine), now that back-to-school sales are gearing up.

ThaRealest, I agree things aren't looking great for Fantastic Four: First Steps. The marketing push is there but it doesn't pop - as a friend pointed out, doing a retro bottle tie-in with Snapple as opposed to Coke or Pepsi doesn't scream enthusiasm. By comparison WB is chugging along with its Superman promotional efforts.

Yeah, Superman marketing is really saturated and inescapable. I also feel a lot of it is just the leads (and randomly the director, as if he is a star of the film himself) doing quick videos and appearances that pop up everywhere. I seriously feel like the two main leads have worked FT the last two months doing nothing but media appearances. Whether and how that translates to box office returns, we’ll see.

As far as FF, they both seem to be doing the conventional, check the box marketing efforts and making some bizarre choices (the tie in you mentioned versus mainline brands, featuring tertiary characters like HERBIE before the film even comes out). Again, it looks like JPR will at least launch with a nice opening weekend number. I also feel like audiences are more forgiving in terms of quality for JP films (much like Fast&Furious films). They don’t so much expect quality as they do certain intrinsic action beats and sequences in the films.


It’s really a head scratcher. You could’ve built an actor in a lab to be the quintessential movie star and that creation still wouldn’t match against Hemsworth. He can nail the five major roles for an actor - lead, supporting, comedic, dramatic, and action star - and sometimes more than one at once. And yet! Audiences don’t show up for his one off films.

You guys are really underestimating and doubting The Fantastic Four foolishly.

The marketing push pops out more colorful and better than Superman wishes it could.

And things actually are looking up for The Fantastic Four, based on the data that shows its opening night pre-sales are outpacing both Superman and Jurassic World: Rebirth.

You just want it to fail.

Also, what you call “bizarre choices” in its marketing, I call “creative choices.”

But you’re too cynical and doomposting to understand.

 

[Tha Realest]

Pixar called out people who say they want original movies.

(me pushing a plate of ramen mixed with SpaghettiO’s meatballs across the table to my wife)

“Huh. You said you wanted us to cook at home more. Why aren’t you supporting this effort?”

 

[Miss Rori]

I get what they were trying for with the TikTok clip, but shouldn't they have done that before the movie hit theaters? It's a week late! But also, it reminds me of the person who worked on Wish being an apologist for it on Reddit claiming, among other things, that they were out to do a simple story in the vein of Cinderella and Sleeping Beauty when a key complaint about the finished film was that it was too complicated to easily follow.

 

[Tha Realest]

I get what they were trying for with the TikTok clip, but shouldn't they have done that before the movie hit theaters? It's a week late! But also, it reminds me of the person who worked on Wish being an apologist for it on Reddit claiming, among other things, that they were out to do a simple story in the vein of Cinderella and Sleeping Beauty when a key complaint about the finished film was that it was too complicated to easily follow.

I think it’s quaint that the world’s largest entertainment conglomerate is shaming reluctant audiences for not supporting “original” filmmaking like this is some upstart art house film and not, you know, the latest $100M+ project from a studio that’s increasingly eschewing originals in favor of sequels after sequels.

 

[Dranth]

I think it’s quaint that the world’s largest entertainment conglomerate is shaming reluctant audiences for not supporting “original” filmmaking like this is some upstart art house film and not, you know, the latest $100M+ project from a studio that’s increasingly eschewing originals in favor of sequels after sequels.

Except the reason they keep eschewing originals for more sequels is because that is what makes money. If people want to be fed endless sequel slop, reboots and remakes, then that is mostly what studios will make.

We, people as a whole, are the problem.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Pixar called out people who say they want original movies.

Surprised corporate Disney allowed them to post this.

Or maybe they didn't pre approve it.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Except the reason they keep eschewing originals for more sequels is because that is what makes money. If people want to be fed endless sequel slop, reboots and remakes, then that is mostly what studios will make.

We, people as a whole, are the problem.

Except they’re not slop, and that’s not a problem.

 

[TP2000]

First pass box office for this weekend is in, gang.

Elio dropped 49% to 3rd place in its second weekend, but was spared 4th place because Megan 2.0 underperformed in its debut. Lilo & Stitch pulled in another $7 Million this week in 6th place. Discuss!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for July 11, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of July 11, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Lmao, I snorted reading this. I will accept your generous olive branch and shall now refer to it as the metric system of box office calculation.

It's a deal!

Though I think you forgot to divide by two at the end, you nearly still arrived at the right final answer.

What I found interesting is the big swings we get between the two systems when a film is particularly successful or particularly bombing; the Imperial numbers that I use, and the Metric system you use.

Looking at Snow White and Lilo & Stitch particularly, the 2.5x Metric system really boosts it up or sends it way below the Imperial numbers.

Snow White: $272 Million Loss in Imperial vs. $471 Million Loss in Metric
Lilo & Stitch: $246 Million Profit in Imperial vs. $667 Million Profit in Metric

The middling performers like Thunderbolts or Captain America were far closer to each other in each system.

There's likely a mathematical reason for that, but I found it interesting how the Metric system really strengthens a success or really craters a flop.

 

[TP2000]

I think it’s quaint that the world’s largest entertainment conglomerate is shaming reluctant audiences for not supporting “original” filmmaking like this is some upstart art house film and not, you know, the latest $100M+ project from a studio that’s increasingly eschewing originals in favor of sequels after sequels.

I particularly found the phrasing she purposely used interesting. Or cringey really. "You should go out and support it!" Which means go buy the product Pixar is currently selling.

Big corporations don't tell us to "support them" by buying their product. That's phrasing usually reserved for local stores and mom-and-pop restaurants in an effort by a local Chamber of Commerce to "support the local community".

McDonald's doesn't ask us to "support them", nor does WalMart or Starbucks or Delta Airlines or General Electric or General Motors or Procter & Gamble. Or Disney, until this.

Can you imagine such a commercial?!?.... "Please support Procter & Gamble by buying Downy Ultra fabric softener!"

 

[Andrew C]

A take.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

A take.

While I’ve heard Hoppers is really strong with audiences liking it which gives me hope it might defy odds to be a box office hit, given it’s releasing on the same first weekend of March that Zootopia opened to in 2016 and when Onward opened in 2020 (10 days right before the pandemic shut theaters down), at least a year later Gatto might mark a new beginning for Pixar like how The Little Mermaid and Mest the Robinsons did for Disney Animation in 1989 and in 2007.

 

[Disney Irish]

So M3GAN2.0 didn't slay in her opening, a full on rejection by audiences. Add that to the 28 Years almost 70% drop (even came in under my prediction of $10M-12M) in its second week. And I think its safe to say that horror fatigue is in full force.

Sinners and Final Destination were successful, and I applaud them, but its clear that audiences are tired of the glut of horror now being released. Doesn't bode well for the rest of the films in that genre being released the rest of the year. The only one that may do well in my opinion is the revival of I Know What You Did Last Summer, given it has a return of Jennifer Love.

The genre probably needs to take a pause for a bit and not release so many into the market (90 this year alone).

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

So M3GAN2.0 didn't slay in her opening, a full on rejection by audiences. Add that to the 28 Years almost 70% drop (even came in under my prediction of $10M-12M) in its second week. And I think its safe to say that horror fatigue is in full force.

Sinners and Final Destination were successful, and I applaud them, but its clear that audiences are tired of the glut of horror now being released. Doesn't bode well for the rest of the films in that genre being released the rest of the year. The only one that may do well in my opinion is the revival of I Know What You Did Last Summer, given it has a return of Jennifer Love.

The genre probably needs to take a pause for a bit and not release so many into the market (90 this year alone).

Not just horror fatigue.

BlumHouse fatigue, too.

People say MCU fatigue, which actually is bad comic book media story fatigue, is what we should worry about, but what BlumHouse is now going through, boom, next level.

 

[Tha Realest]

I particularly found the phrasing she purposely used interesting. Or cringey really. "You should go out and support it!" Which means go buy the product Pixar is currently selling.

Big corporations don't tell us to "support them" by buying their product. That's phrasing usually reserved for local stores and mom-and-pop restaurants in an effort by a local Chamber of Commerce to "support the local community".

McDonald's doesn't ask us to "support them", nor does WalMart or Starbucks or Delta Airlines or General Electric or General Motors or Procter & Gamble. Or Disney, until this.

Can you imagine such a commercial?!?.... "Please support Procter & Gamble by buying Downy Ultra fabric softener!"

Yeah, Disney can miss me with all this “you need to support original films!” when their big releases this year are the 35th, 36th, and 37th entries in a long running franchise, two live action versions of their animated films, and sequels to Freaky Friday, TRON: Legacy, Zootopia, and Avatar 2.

Let’s also not forget they’ve aggressively withdrawn the ability of small local theaters and film festivals to show their older catalogue films, and exert outsized influence on movie theater chains for BO split.

So yeah, it’s all a pathetic charade. I hope whoever unwisely thought it was a good idea to repost that is getting a talking to.

 

[Tha Realest]

Not just horror fatigue.

BlumHouse fatigue, too.

People say MCU fatigue, which actually is bad comic book media story fatigue, is what we should worry about, but what BlumHouse is now going through, boom, next level.

Each of their films this year likely came close to the break even point. Let’s see how they do at years end with The Black Phone 2 and FNAF 2.

 

[Disney Irish]

Each of their films this year likely came close to the break even point. Let’s see how they do at years end with The Black Phone 2 and FNAF 2.

But wait, haven't we been beaten over the head over and over by a few posters here (including you as I recall) that claim that no studio releases a movie to just break even or come close to break even. And that any movie that doesn't make more than break even is a loser (not my words). So its clear that BlumHouse is in the same boat as Disney and every other studios in that regard.

 

[BrianLo]

Captain America 4 = $18.5 Million Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White = $235.5 Million Loss
The Amateur = $27 Million Loss
Thunderbolts = 34 Loss
Lilo & Stitch = $333.5 Million Profit
Elio = ???

It's a deal!



What I found interesting is the big swings we get between the two systems when a film is particularly successful or particularly bombing; the Imperial numbers that I use, and the Metric system you use.

Looking at Snow White and Lilo & Stitch particularly, the 2.5x Metric system really boosts it up or sends it way below the Imperial numbers.

Snow White: $272 Million Loss in Imperial vs. $471 Million Loss in Metric
Lilo & Stitch: $246 Million Profit in Imperial vs. $667 Million Profit in Metric

The middling performers like Thunderbolts or Captain America were far closer to each other in each system.

There's likely a mathematical reason for that, but I found it interesting how the Metric system really strengthens a success or really craters a flop.

That’s what I meant that you are forgetting to divide by two with the way you are currently calculating it. I just meant your final yearly tally was actually close to the final answer, since it approximates zero.

Snow White is actually 471 / 2 = -235.5
Stitch is 667 / 2 = 333.5

Corrections also changed in the quote above

 

[Miss Rori]

Let’s also not forget they’ve aggressively withdrawn the ability of small local theaters and film festivals to show their older catalogue films, and exert outsized influence on movie theater chains for BO split.

I would like to see The Phoenician Scheme right now - support original cinema and all - but there isn't a theater in my region showing it. The saturation booking of blockbusters by the big studios makes it difficult for smaller movies to get a toehold in these parts unless they're "faith-based" films or the like.

There's a great box office analysis podcast called, well, The Box Office Podcast that spent the bulk of its most recent episode pondering why Elio didn't pan out. The page I'm linking to also has links to articles on the topic.

Ep. 73 - How Low Can Pixar's 'Elio' Go?

Listen now | Josh Spiegel, author of ‘Yesterday is Forever’ and “Pixar and the Infinite Past,’ joins us to discuss and dissect the sad decline of Pixar as a once-towering A+ butts-in-seats theatrical brand name.

scottmendelson.substack.com