Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

Very insightful

And very much points to a certain corp and blocks of ip I can think of…specifically announcing directors with no scripts

I wonder what the Bomb/franchise reboot he was was talking about with that producer was?

(If bombs exist)

It’s quite telling that Gunn (at least publicly) hasn’t adopted the practice of staking out years of “Untitled DCU Ensemble Film May 2027” and the like. He also pretty explicitly said they shut down the Sgt. Rock production (which had a director attached and at least Craig/Farrell as the lead at various points) because the script was either unfinished or not good.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s quite telling that Gunn (at least publicly) hasn’t adopted the practice of staking out years of “Untitled DCU Ensemble Film May 2027” and the like. He also pretty explicitly said they shut down the Sgt. Rock production (which had a director attached and at least Craig/Farrell as the lead at various points) because the script was either unfinished or not good.

I applaud anyone publicly saying that they won’t make a bad script

…but it won’t hold

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It’s quite telling that Gunn (at least publicly) hasn’t adopted the practice of staking out years of “Untitled DCU Ensemble Film May 2027” and the like. He also pretty explicitly said they shut down the Sgt. Rock production (which had a director attached and at least Craig/Farrell as the lead at various points) because the script was either unfinished or not good.

James Cameron is famous for taking years, even decades, to create a film also, probably why he has some of the highest box office films, and some of the most well known films, ever made.

 

[brideck]

It’s quite telling that Gunn (at least publicly) hasn’t adopted the practice of staking out years of “Untitled DCU Ensemble Film May 2027” and the like. He also pretty explicitly said they shut down the Sgt. Rock production (which had a director attached and at least Craig/Farrell as the lead at various points) because the script was either unfinished or not good.

Gunn's been pretty explicit from the jump with DC about requiring approved, completed scripts prior to starting production, which is why they currently only have two confirmed movies (one of which wasn't even in their original plan) lined up post-Superman. This has definitely been the MCU's greatest sin and leads to a lot of the third act problems that leave me cold about those movies -- and it's been baked into the process since the first Iron Man.

The situation with stuff like Elio seems a little different in that they seem to have an approved, completed script, do a bunch of work, have a test screening, and then blow the whole project apart and rework it after that -- a luxury that's (relatively) easier to do with animation.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

James Cameron is famous for taking years, even decades, to create a film also, probably why he has some of the highest box office films, and some of the most well known films, ever made.

Yeah…he kinda has it right

It’s ironic that George was used in that video you posted about how backwards Hollywood is.

He’s right…but he’s not the messenger

Still seems to be mad to this day about empire going over budget…and you can make the case that was the most important movie for Hollywood maybe ever…

Didn’t concern himself with the scripts for that or Jedi…didn’t listen to any of his people that phantom menace was crap…
So not the greatest warrior for smart decisions

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

FINALLY.

It’s finally here.

Ladies and gentlemen, the very 1st teaser trailer and poster for Disney and Pixar’s 30th all-new full-length animated film #Hoppers, only in theaters next spring on March 6th, 2026 (the year of Pixar’s 40th Anniversary).



Hoping it gets an IMAX release too.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Gunn's been pretty explicit from the jump with DC about requiring approved, completed scripts prior to starting production, which is why they currently only have two confirmed movies (one of which wasn't even in their original plan) lined up post-Superman. This has definitely been the MCU's greatest sin and leads to a lot of the third act problems that leave me cold about those movies -- and it's been baked into the process since the first Iron Man.

The situation with stuff like Elio seems a little different in that they seem to have an approved, completed script, do a bunch of work, have a test screening, and then blow the whole project apart and rework it after that -- a luxury that's (relatively) easier to do with animation.

Doing reshoots/recuts is a fascinating study

Usually…it means you have crap and then you get too many chefs in the kitchen …

Sometimes…you knock one out. Thinking of Toy Story and tangled

 

[BrianLo]

FINALLY.

It’s finally here.

Ladies and gentlemen, the very 1st teaser trailer and poster for Disney and Pixar’s 30th all-new full-length animated film #Hoppers, only in theaters next spring on March 6th, 2026 (the year of Pixar’s 40th Anniversary).



Hoping it gets an IMAX release too.

I’m not sure if the D23 trailer ever leaked, but my fickle memory is that the first half of this trailer was almost exactly what we were shown, only.

Queue the Canada pavilion overlay calls.

 

[BrianLo]

I think Hoppers will be a more successful Pixar launch for them. It has a lot more marketability to kids.

I’m not trying to be insulting, but it seems almost in the Illumination wheelhouse.

Then the all important thing: it has a plush.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Variety reports Superman has a combined $350 million production and marketing budget

That's likely where the $700 million threshold belief comes from, even if the director says it doesn't need to hit that target

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I think Hoppers will be a more successful Pixar launch for them.

The new floor for Pixar movies to clear is a $20 million opening weekend

Think it's safe to say just about anything will top that

Then the all important thing: it has a plush.

Elio had plush too, but I guess a beaver is easier to sell than unknown space slug

 

[DKampy]

Having a couple movies a year cover the flops is not the goal…never was the goal.

That may be the industry “reality”…but it doesn’t “unflop” a tent pole…and neither does Disney plus.

And were we are back at go and around the board again. It’s been played out. Good day

Wow….I had no idea you worked for Disney and know what each film is making via VOD, Ads on that tier of streaming, listening etc…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wow….I had no idea you worked for Disney and know what each film is making via VOD, Ads on that tier of streaming, listening etc…

You totally missed the point…

And that point was that there have been all those other things in one form or another since about 1980…home video…licensing…ad revenues…etc etc

The tech has changed…but not the formula that much.

So you’re saying there hasn’t been a flop since they started selling cassettes for $24.95 in the 80’s? Or that the flops didn’t sell and therefore they were still “flops” by revenue standards? They still didn’t end up on broadcast?

But somehow now all flops go to heaven because it’s digital?

Want to take a Birds Eye view of this?

And just to kinda isolate it (and my head hurts)…but it appears via their fiscal reports that the “segment” - and they throw all kinds of stuff together to hide the weak spots - for their digital direct, broadcast, content sales and ad revenues were about $14 billion for the FY 2024…

That’s gotta be a lot more than…say…2010…when it was basically no DTV and more traditional programming and home media sales? Right?

Gotta be…

Or it was $17 then…which makes it a much larger slice of the pot then as compared to now. But we (and this really don’t apply to eveyone with lots of opinions) who use their P&R products can attest…that brings in alot more out of our pockets. There are receipts available.

So they’re fine…bankruptcy not imminent…

But back to the flops and all this digital cash cow…
Just do the math for me on how they now have eliminated flops through their unlimited digital cash? Which shell is that money under?

I mean…Prince of Persia and the sorcerers apprentice came out that year and were emphatically declared flops…should we go back in time and correct that?

Cause Snow White lost more lb for lb and was dumped into a “tv” medium that makes much less (far less when you consider cost inflation and money depreciation).

Learning a lot today…it seems?

 

[Ghost93]

Variety reports Superman has a combined $350 million production and marketing budget

That's likely where the $700 million threshold belief comes from, even if the director says it doesn't need to hit that target

But the 2.5 profitability thing only takes into account the actual budget, not marketing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But the 2.5 profitability thing only takes into account the actual budget, not marketing.

I saw a similar chart today…they said $225 production and $125 marketing…hence the $350

But these things appear to be completely disingenuous…because post production overruns have appeared to have gone extinct in the 2 years since the heat on the corps has been so turned up. Very ironic

 

[Ghost93]

I saw a similar chart today…they said $225 production and $125 marketing…hence the $350

I'm not saying that the marketing numbers are wrong. I'm saying that the general rule that a movie needs to make 2.5x its budget to break even factors in the marketing costs and revenue splits for distributors. So Superman would need to make $562 million — not $812 million — to break even.

 

[coffeefan]

There are similarities here to Marvel/Pixar.

 

[DKampy]

You totally missed the point…

And that point was that there have been all those other things in one form or another since about 1980…home video…licensing…ad revenues…etc etc

The tech has changed…but not the formula that much.

So you’re saying there hasn’t been a flop since they started selling cassettes for $24.95 in the 80’s? Or that the flops didn’t sell and therefore they were still “flops” by revenue standards? They still didn’t end up on broadcast?

But somehow now all flops go to heaven because it’s digital?

Want to take a Birds Eye view of this?

And just to kinda isolate it (and my head hurts)…but it appears via their fiscal reports that the “segment” - and they throw all kinds of stuff together to hide the weak spots - for their digital direct, broadcast, content sales and ad revenues were about $14 billion for the FY 2024…

That’s gotta be a lot more than…say…2010…when it was basically no DTV and more traditional programming and home media sales? Right?

Gotta be…

Or it was $17 then…which makes it a much larger slice of the pot then as compared to now. But we (and this really don’t apply to eveyone with lots of opinions) who use their P&R products can attest…that brings in alot more out of our pockets. There are receipts available.

So they’re fine…bankruptcy not imminent…

But back to the flops and all this digital cash cow…
Just do the math for me on how they now have eliminated flops through their unlimited digital cash? Which shell is that money under?

I mean…Prince of Persia and the sorcerers apprentice came out that year and were emphatically declared flops…should we go back in time and correct that?

Cause Snow White lost more lb for lb and was dumped into a “tv” medium that makes much less (far less when you consider cost inflation and money depreciation).

Learning a lot today…it seems?

I get the point…. We live in very different times now…. In the 80’sand 90”s it still took more effort then it does now to rent/buy a movie…Currently it is as easy as a click of the button…. There are much less peopke going to the movies today… with many opting to wait till they drop on VOD…

I believe all studios use theaters partially as advertisement for the individual streaming services as well…, as @Disney Irish pointed out Elio appears to be one of those…. The Disney summer movies that appear to get most of the promotion budges is Stitch and F4…. As someone who goes to the movies weekly…. I only saw the trailer once and I have never seen a large display at any of the theaters around here

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I get the point…. We live in very different times now…. In the 80’sand 90”s it still took more effort then it does now to rent/buy a movie…Currently it is as easy as a click of the button…. There are much less peopke going to the movies today… with many opting to wait till they drop on VOD…

I believe all studios use theaters partially as advertisement for the individual streaming services as well…, as @Disney Irish pointed out Elio appears to be one of those…. The Disney summer movies that appear to get most of the promotion budges is Stitch and F4…. As someone who goes to the movies weekly…. I only saw the trailer once and I have never seen a large display at any of the theaters around here

And that’s all well and good…but so far there is zero evidence that flops turn profitable on a streaming platform. What are people watching there? Snow White, the deplorables (or whatever that’s called?)…or the Bear new season?

What the “movies don’t flop” really is…all it is…is a rosy prediction presented as “fact” by your friend. And of course an excuse for the powers that be for making rejected product. Whatever the cause.

And that’s only because the counter has been said. If I said the sun was yellow today..it would be blue. Something a little sick going on there. Like invested in the echo chamber and inability to move on…like at all. And that’s me saying it…which makes it BAD.

And not to debate the particulars. Do you think the margin was higher on that $25 vhs in 1989…or whatever fractions of Pennies that can honestly be attributed to a $29.99 digital sub…where no one is watching the bombs?

The gameplan very well may be to use the streaming to finance the studio…full stop. That in no way…and never will…make the failure at the BO “palatable” to the management.

“How much did we tank at the box office this weekend? You know what…never mind…we have D+”

Or

“Stitch raked and the stuff is flying off the shelf “

Assuming that your average management, board and investors like money, power and prestige in some order…which one is more plausible?

I still think all this nonsense would never have even been brought up if they had not lost on about half a dozen Marvels over the last three years…somebody’s feelings are hurt. They got nothing left to believe in

And we could have argued about something else I would hope would be more productive.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not saying that the marketing numbers are wrong. I'm saying that the general rule that a movie needs to make 2.5x its budget to break even factors in the marketing costs and revenue splits for distributors. So Superman would need to make $562 million — not $812 million — to break even.

That may be…and that might be a hard climb.

But as always…we’ll be 75% sure by Sunday and 95% sure by 7/27.