Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

I think it’s quaint that the world’s largest entertainment conglomerate is shaming reluctant audiences for not supporting “original” filmmaking like this is some upstart art house film and not, you know, the latest $100M+ project from a studio that’s increasingly eschewing originals in favor of sequels after sequels.

I particularly found the phrasing she purposely used interesting. Or cringey really. "You should go out and support it!" Which means go buy the product Pixar is currently selling.

Big corporations don't tell us to "support them" by buying their product. That's phrasing usually reserved for local stores and mom-and-pop restaurants in an effort by a local Chamber of Commerce to "support the local community".

McDonald's doesn't ask us to "support them", nor does WalMart or Starbucks or Delta Airlines or General Electric or General Motors or Procter & Gamble. Or Disney, until this.

Can you imagine such a commercial?!?.... "Please support Procter & Gamble by buying Downy Ultra fabric softener!"

 

[Andrew C]

A take.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

A take.

While I’ve heard Hoppers is really strong with audiences liking it which gives me hope it might defy odds to be a box office hit, given it’s releasing on the same first weekend of March that Zootopia opened to in 2016 and when Onward opened in 2020 (10 days right before the pandemic shut theaters down), at least a year later Gatto might mark a new beginning for Pixar like how The Little Mermaid and Mest the Robinsons did for Disney Animation in 1989 and in 2007.

 

[Disney Irish]

So M3GAN2.0 didn't slay in her opening, a full on rejection by audiences. Add that to the 28 Years almost 70% drop (even came in under my prediction of $10M-12M) in its second week. And I think its safe to say that horror fatigue is in full force.

Sinners and Final Destination were successful, and I applaud them, but its clear that audiences are tired of the glut of horror now being released. Doesn't bode well for the rest of the films in that genre being released the rest of the year. The only one that may do well in my opinion is the revival of I Know What You Did Last Summer, given it has a return of Jennifer Love.

The genre probably needs to take a pause for a bit and not release so many into the market (90 this year alone).

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

So M3GAN2.0 didn't slay in her opening, a full on rejection by audiences. Add that to the 28 Years almost 70% drop (even came in under my prediction of $10M-12M) in its second week. And I think its safe to say that horror fatigue is in full force.

Sinners and Final Destination were successful, and I applaud them, but its clear that audiences are tired of the glut of horror now being released. Doesn't bode well for the rest of the films in that genre being released the rest of the year. The only one that may do well in my opinion is the revival of I Know What You Did Last Summer, given it has a return of Jennifer Love.

The genre probably needs to take a pause for a bit and not release so many into the market (90 this year alone).

Not just horror fatigue.

BlumHouse fatigue, too.

People say MCU fatigue, which actually is bad comic book media story fatigue, is what we should worry about, but what BlumHouse is now going through, boom, next level.

 

[Tha Realest]

I particularly found the phrasing she purposely used interesting. Or cringey really. "You should go out and support it!" Which means go buy the product Pixar is currently selling.

Big corporations don't tell us to "support them" by buying their product. That's phrasing usually reserved for local stores and mom-and-pop restaurants in an effort by a local Chamber of Commerce to "support the local community".

McDonald's doesn't ask us to "support them", nor does WalMart or Starbucks or Delta Airlines or General Electric or General Motors or Procter & Gamble. Or Disney, until this.

Can you imagine such a commercial?!?.... "Please support Procter & Gamble by buying Downy Ultra fabric softener!"

Yeah, Disney can miss me with all this “you need to support original films!” when their big releases this year are the 35th, 36th, and 37th entries in a long running franchise, two live action versions of their animated films, and sequels to Freaky Friday, TRON: Legacy, Zootopia, and Avatar 2.

Let’s also not forget they’ve aggressively withdrawn the ability of small local theaters and film festivals to show their older catalogue films, and exert outsized influence on movie theater chains for BO split.

So yeah, it’s all a pathetic charade. I hope whoever unwisely thought it was a good idea to repost that is getting a talking to.

 

[Tha Realest]

Not just horror fatigue.

BlumHouse fatigue, too.

People say MCU fatigue, which actually is bad comic book media story fatigue, is what we should worry about, but what BlumHouse is now going through, boom, next level.

Each of their films this year likely came close to the break even point. Let’s see how they do at years end with The Black Phone 2 and FNAF 2.

 

[Disney Irish]

Each of their films this year likely came close to the break even point. Let’s see how they do at years end with The Black Phone 2 and FNAF 2.

But wait, haven't we been beaten over the head over and over by a few posters here (including you as I recall) that claim that no studio releases a movie to just break even or come close to break even. And that any movie that doesn't make more than break even is a loser (not my words). So its clear that BlumHouse is in the same boat as Disney and every other studios in that regard.

 

[BrianLo]

Captain America 4 = $18.5 Million Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White = $235.5 Million Loss
The Amateur = $27 Million Loss
Thunderbolts = 34 Loss
Lilo & Stitch = $333.5 Million Profit
Elio = ???

It's a deal!



What I found interesting is the big swings we get between the two systems when a film is particularly successful or particularly bombing; the Imperial numbers that I use, and the Metric system you use.

Looking at Snow White and Lilo & Stitch particularly, the 2.5x Metric system really boosts it up or sends it way below the Imperial numbers.

Snow White: $272 Million Loss in Imperial vs. $471 Million Loss in Metric
Lilo & Stitch: $246 Million Profit in Imperial vs. $667 Million Profit in Metric

The middling performers like Thunderbolts or Captain America were far closer to each other in each system.

There's likely a mathematical reason for that, but I found it interesting how the Metric system really strengthens a success or really craters a flop.

That’s what I meant that you are forgetting to divide by two with the way you are currently calculating it. I just meant your final yearly tally was actually close to the final answer, since it approximates zero.

Snow White is actually 471 / 2 = -235.5
Stitch is 667 / 2 = 333.5

Corrections also changed in the quote above

 

[Miss Rori]

Let’s also not forget they’ve aggressively withdrawn the ability of small local theaters and film festivals to show their older catalogue films, and exert outsized influence on movie theater chains for BO split.

I would like to see The Phoenician Scheme right now - support original cinema and all - but there isn't a theater in my region showing it. The saturation booking of blockbusters by the big studios makes it difficult for smaller movies to get a toehold in these parts unless they're "faith-based" films or the like.

There's a great box office analysis podcast called, well, The Box Office Podcast that spent the bulk of its most recent episode pondering why Elio didn't pan out. The page I'm linking to also has links to articles on the topic.

Ep. 73 - How Low Can Pixar's 'Elio' Go?

Listen now | Josh Spiegel, author of ‘Yesterday is Forever’ and “Pixar and the Infinite Past,’ joins us to discuss and dissect the sad decline of Pixar as a once-towering A+ butts-in-seats theatrical brand name.

scottmendelson.substack.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

And I think its safe to say that horror fatigue is in full force.

It’s a guess, but I don’t think it’s safe to say.

None of these films have anything in common except their genre.

Horror movies have been consistently released for decades. Now suddenly we’re fatigued?

As always, better ones with broader appeal do better.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s a guess, but I don’t think it’s safe to say.

None of these films have anything in common except their genre.

Horror movies have been consistently released for decades. Now suddenly we’re fatigued?

As always, better ones with broader appeal do better.

So wait why is other genres like superhero and such talked about in terms of fatigue when there is a glut of movies but not horror? Why is everyone so quick to defend horror against fatigue talk but so quick to claim other genres have fatigue? Can it not get fatigue like any other genre? And with 90 horror movies being released this year alone is that not too much into the marketplace that can lead to fatigue?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

So wait why is other genres like superhero and such talked about in terms of fatigue when there is a glut of movies but not horror? Why is everyone so quick to defend horror against fatigue talk but so quick to claim other genres have fatigue? Can it not get fatigue like any other genre? And with 90 horror movies being released this year alone is that not too much into the marketplace that can lead to fatigue?

You ever hear me claim fatigue of anything?

 

[Disney Irish]

You ever hear me claim fatigue of anything?

I’m not speaking specifically about you. So the point still stands.

The questions then to you specifically, do you feel there is too much horror being released to the market? And if yes do you think it has a negative effect on the genres potential earnings for the year? Or do you feel that it’s still each movie independent to each other? And if that is the take on it does genre even matter at that point? And to expand on that how does that factor into the limited amount the overall audience is willing to spend on movies in general?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I’m not speaking specifically about you. So the point still stands.

Then I’m not the one to address it, because I don’t espouse it or agree with it.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

The questions then to you specifically, do you feel there is too much horror being released to the market

No.

 

[Disney Irish]

No.

Ok, so then do you feel there is any particular genre that is being released too much to the market? And if yes then why is that considered too much and horror not?

Bottom line, I'm trying to figure out why horror seems to be defended (not particularly by you) more than any other genre.

 

[Disney Irish]

Then I’m not the one to address it, because I don’t espouse it or agree with it.

Ok, then do you believe genre fatigue happens at all in movies? And I'm not talking about just you personally, I'm talking about for the general public.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Ok, so then do you feel there is any particular genre that is being released too much to the market? And if yes then why is that considered too much and horror not?

Bottom line, I'm trying to figure out why horror seems to be defended (not particularly by you) more than any other genre.

As I’ve already stated, you’ve never heard me mention fatigue at all, so, no.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Ok, then do you believe genre fatigue happens at all in movies? And I'm not talking about just you personally, I'm talking about for the general public.

Without looking at statistics, no.

If a very good Superman, X-Men, avengers, and some other new thing I never heard of all came out in the same year, there is no reason why they can’t all do well.

Keywords there being “very good.“

It has nothing to do with their genre.

Now, if one were released every two weeks, some people will have to make choices. That’s not fatigue. That’s economics of finance as well as time.

If the films are not very good, that’s not indicative of fatigue. It’s indicative of movies with poor word of mouth.

If the films are politically attacked, that’s not fatigue, either.

If fatigue exists, I believe it has more to do with repeating the same formula. It’s a lack of creativity. When you can guess what the next line is going to be in the film, and be correct more than 50% of the time, sure that could lead to fatigue. If you know how it’s going to end when it starts, if there are no surprises, if the bad guy is a bad guy because his mommy didn’t hug him enough yet again: all those things can lead to fatigue. It still has nothing to do with the genre itself. It has to do with the formula.