Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

F1's estimate is $55 million for the weekend, best for any Apple original movie

Elio expected to drop 45% in its second weekend to $11-$12 million

M3GAN 2 should have picked another weekend to open because it may only get $10 million

I think F1 may go higher when actuals are in…. Every time they updated the projections increased….with what started out as an expected 30…. Even yesterday they were projecting 50… so it has increased another 5 since then…. I think this will be a big ol hit… especially international…. We’re formula 1 is enormous….it seems to have good word of mouth as even people who don’t care for racing seem to be really enjoying it… I will find out Sunday… as I am in the car racing is boring camp… it is just cars driving in a circle to me

Yes… ouch for Megan…. looks like it will finish forth this weekend….positioning it as a summer blockbuster was an odd move… I suppose they wanted to give Soulm8te it’s slow January date…. Although I think Megan may have been lighting in bottle… that is the issue with meme movies…. They risk being outdated rather quickly

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I'm just there for the movies, and we'll maybe split a single something 30-50% of the time.

I’d like to see statistics on how unusual that is.

Generally speaking, if I’m too broke for popcorn, I’m probably too broke to go to the movies at all. That whole Disney Renaissance time? I was too broke. It had to be something I was dying to see.

And personally, I don’t buy into mass anything. I make my own choices, and I’ve never had a lack of willpower or anything like that. On the contrary, I’m a control freak, and quite thrifty. Even today, my WDW TR’s here are under the moniker “Two broke guys.”

I’m sure there are plenty of people who do come under the spell of “mass psychology,” as you put it. I count among them people who feel entitled to have giant sodas with free refills everywhere they go. (I gave it up 30 years ago, but I can’t put my stuff on everyone else.)

But popcorn is part of the experience for me. I actually love popcorn, and movie popcorn tastes different than popcorn at home. I’m sure it’s much less healthy than what I have at home, but I don’t go so often that it’s an issue.

My husband will get the one sugar-free soda, and the only time I touch it is if I get popcorn stuck in my throat lol.

If we go to the theater that has full meals, sometimes we will have a full meal, though they are usually meh.

Just like Disney or any other recreational activity, different people do the movies different ways, and those ways may change in different times of their lives based on cost, health, or other reasons. That’s why we have to look at averages, trying not to overemphasize our own biases.

Without looking things up, my guess is my original point was accurate for the average movie goer. I assume the average movie goer buys concessions to varying degrees.

 

[brideck]

Without looking things up, my guess is my original point was accurate for the average movie goer. I assume the average movie goer buys concessions to varying degrees.

I assume that I'm an outlier and that this is the case, too.

I also don't think that has to necessarily be so, if people just wanted to watch movies as a collective experience. But people don't. They want to go to the movies, and that's been crafted as this bells and whistles experience (by the theaters themselves -- "Let's all go to the lobby!") that has now become more expensive.

 

[DKampy]

I assume that I'm an outlier and that this is the case, too.

I also don't think that has to necessarily be so, if people just wanted to watch movies as a collective experience. But people don't. They want to go to the movies, and that's been crafted as this bells and whistles experience (by the theaters themselves -- "Let's all go to the lobby!") that has now become more expensive.

As I always say….we find it is the cheapest form of entertainment for us…but we don’t usually buy concessions…. We will sneak in a drink…thanks to my wife’s purse….As we go to see the movies themselves… as we are both movie people and will watch anything from small Indy’s to huge blockbusters…. We also belong to our local chain’s movie club…. Which is 10.00 day or night… so it’s only $20.00 for the 2 of us…. But I can see how it might add up for families

 

[Disney Irish]

I’d like to see statistics on how unusual that is.

Generally speaking, if I’m too broke for popcorn, I’m probably too broke to go to the movies at all. That whole Disney Renaissance time? I was too broke. It had to be something I was dying to see.

And personally, I don’t buy into mass anything. I make my own choices, and I’ve never had a lack of willpower or anything like that. On the contrary, I’m a control freak, and quite thrifty. Even today, my WDW TR’s here are under the moniker “Two broke guys.”

I’m sure there are plenty of people who do come under the spell of “mass psychology,” as you put it. I count among them people who feel entitled to have giant sodas with free refills everywhere they go. (I gave it up 30 years ago, but I can’t put my stuff on everyone else.)

But popcorn is part of the experience for me. I actually love popcorn, and movie popcorn tastes different than popcorn at home. I’m sure it’s much less healthy than what I have at home, but I don’t go so often that it’s an issue.

My husband will get the one sugar-free soda, and the only time I touch it is if I get popcorn stuck in my throat lol.

If we go to the theater that has full meals, sometimes we will have a full meal, though they are usually meh.

Just like Disney or any other recreational activity, different people do the movies different ways, and those ways may change in different times of their lives based on cost, health, or other reasons. That’s why we have to look at averages, trying not to overemphasize our own biases.

Without looking things up, my guess is my original point was accurate for the average movie goer. I assume the average movie goer buys concessions to varying degrees.

I assume that I'm an outlier and that this is the case, too.

I also don't think that has to necessarily be so, if people just wanted to watch movies as a collective experience. But people don't. They want to go to the movies, and that's been crafted as this bells and whistles experience (by the theaters themselves -- "Let's all go to the lobby!") that has now become more expensive.

As I always say….we find it is the cheapest form of entertainment for us…but we don’t usually buy concessions…. We will sneak in a drink…thanks to my wife’s purse….As we go to see the movies themselves… as we are both movie people and will watch anything from small Indy’s to huge blockbusters…. We also belong to our local chain’s movie club…. Which is 10.00 day or night… so it’s only $20.00 for the 2 of us…. But I can see how it might add up for families

I think the larger take away here is that there is not one size fits all situation when it comes to movies. There are extremes on each side where people will continue to find ways to always go, and then there will be people that will avoid it at all costs due to whatever factor be it price, crowds, etc.

But like everything in life I think it lies somewhere in the middle, where the trend suggests that for the average movie goer they go only once or twice a year. And that it appears that the younger generations, just like many other trends, are leading the way in terms of skipping the movies in favor of other forms of entertainment (though GenZ tend to be an outlier as they go more often than many other younger generations, we'll see if that trend continues).

Here was a study done, don't know how accurate, but it draws some of the same conclusions that have been discussed here before, namely that people are more often than not to wait until the movie is available at home to see it.

Do Americans Visit the Theater or Has Streaming Taken Over?

Learn what factors drive Americans to choose their living rooms over movie theaters, and vice versa. Discover key insights and trends across generations.

octaneseating.com

So take it for what its worth. But I think the theater owners have a right to be concerned that the movie going experience may only have a decade or two left.

 

[Disney Irish]

I will find out Sunday… as I am in the car racing is boring camp… it is just cars driving in a circle to me

Well good thing that Formula One (known simply as F1 hence the title of the movie) doesn't go around in a circle like Nascar.

I'm not a big fan of racing either, but my company has become involved with F1 so I've followed it a bit.

 

[Miss Rori]

Yeah, Superman marketing is really saturated and inescapable. I also feel a lot of it is just the leads (and randomly the director, as if he is a star of the film himself) doing quick videos and appearances that pop up everywhere. I seriously feel like the two main leads have worked FT the last two months doing nothing but media appearances. Whether and how that translates to box office returns, we’ll see.

WB has been shaping up of late when it comes to promoting their movies. They have a hand in F1 right now, and that's paying off already. And if Jurassic World: Rebirth turns out not to be a barn-burner, that opens up a route for Superman to make it big.

Again, it looks like JPR will at least launch with a nice opening weekend number. I also feel like audiences are more forgiving in terms of quality for JP films (much like Fast&Furious films). They don’t so much expect quality as they do certain intrinsic action beats and sequences in the films.

This is a valid point. It'll likely have a big first weekend no matter which way the critical winds blow, especially with the holiday and all, but after that there could be some steep week-to-week dropoffs if the masses aren't impressed.

Meanwhile, Elio isn't shaping up - yet? - to be the next Elemental; it's looking at a 48% dropoff from the previous weekend. I think its last hope is a massive influx of families over the holiday weekend, and that will also depend on whether multiplexes cut back on showtimes to make space for JP.

 

[BrianLo]

Or, for our friends on the Metric system and the less specific 2.5X the production blanket formula, you'd get a profit of $37 Million so far.

Lmao, I snorted reading this. I will accept your generous olive branch and shall now refer to it as the metric system of box office calculation.

Though I think you forgot to divide by two at the end, you nearly still arrived at the right final answer.

 

[coffeefan]

Pixar called out people who say they want original movies.

 

[Agent H]

Pixar called out people who say they want original movies.

This is surprisingly forward. Good.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

This is surprisingly forward. Good.

Mmm hmm.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Given early word on Jurassic World: Rebirth has been sour (this past week it turned up as a one-off Mystery Movie screening at some Regal theaters, which is not typical for a tentpole picture, and those who saw it don't seem impressed) this might happen! Actually, Universal hasn't pushed it as hard as I expected they would, especially compared to the How to Train Your Dragon remake. And I've even seen new Wicked merchandise creeping onto the market or being made available for pre-orders in anticipation of its Part Two (which likely will be the one real, punchy challenger for the box office haul Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash are out for - I think all three will get along just fine), now that back-to-school sales are gearing up.

ThaRealest, I agree things aren't looking great for Fantastic Four: First Steps. The marketing push is there but it doesn't pop - as a friend pointed out, doing a retro bottle tie-in with Snapple as opposed to Coke or Pepsi doesn't scream enthusiasm. By comparison WB is chugging along with its Superman promotional efforts.

Yeah, Superman marketing is really saturated and inescapable. I also feel a lot of it is just the leads (and randomly the director, as if he is a star of the film himself) doing quick videos and appearances that pop up everywhere. I seriously feel like the two main leads have worked FT the last two months doing nothing but media appearances. Whether and how that translates to box office returns, we’ll see.

As far as FF, they both seem to be doing the conventional, check the box marketing efforts and making some bizarre choices (the tie in you mentioned versus mainline brands, featuring tertiary characters like HERBIE before the film even comes out). Again, it looks like JPR will at least launch with a nice opening weekend number. I also feel like audiences are more forgiving in terms of quality for JP films (much like Fast&Furious films). They don’t so much expect quality as they do certain intrinsic action beats and sequences in the films.


It’s really a head scratcher. You could’ve built an actor in a lab to be the quintessential movie star and that creation still wouldn’t match against Hemsworth. He can nail the five major roles for an actor - lead, supporting, comedic, dramatic, and action star - and sometimes more than one at once. And yet! Audiences don’t show up for his one off films.

You guys are really underestimating and doubting The Fantastic Four foolishly.

The marketing push pops out more colorful and better than Superman wishes it could.

And things actually are looking up for The Fantastic Four, based on the data that shows its opening night pre-sales are outpacing both Superman and Jurassic World: Rebirth.

You just want it to fail.

Also, what you call “bizarre choices” in its marketing, I call “creative choices.”

But you’re too cynical and doomposting to understand.

 

[Tha Realest]

Pixar called out people who say they want original movies.

(me pushing a plate of ramen mixed with SpaghettiO’s meatballs across the table to my wife)

“Huh. You said you wanted us to cook at home more. Why aren’t you supporting this effort?”

 

[Miss Rori]

I get what they were trying for with the TikTok clip, but shouldn't they have done that before the movie hit theaters? It's a week late! But also, it reminds me of the person who worked on Wish being an apologist for it on Reddit claiming, among other things, that they were out to do a simple story in the vein of Cinderella and Sleeping Beauty when a key complaint about the finished film was that it was too complicated to easily follow.

 

[Tha Realest]

I get what they were trying for with the TikTok clip, but shouldn't they have done that before the movie hit theaters? It's a week late! But also, it reminds me of the person who worked on Wish being an apologist for it on Reddit claiming, among other things, that they were out to do a simple story in the vein of Cinderella and Sleeping Beauty when a key complaint about the finished film was that it was too complicated to easily follow.

I think it’s quaint that the world’s largest entertainment conglomerate is shaming reluctant audiences for not supporting “original” filmmaking like this is some upstart art house film and not, you know, the latest $100M+ project from a studio that’s increasingly eschewing originals in favor of sequels after sequels.

 

[Dranth]

I think it’s quaint that the world’s largest entertainment conglomerate is shaming reluctant audiences for not supporting “original” filmmaking like this is some upstart art house film and not, you know, the latest $100M+ project from a studio that’s increasingly eschewing originals in favor of sequels after sequels.

Except the reason they keep eschewing originals for more sequels is because that is what makes money. If people want to be fed endless sequel slop, reboots and remakes, then that is mostly what studios will make.

We, people as a whole, are the problem.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Pixar called out people who say they want original movies.

Surprised corporate Disney allowed them to post this.

Or maybe they didn't pre approve it.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Except the reason they keep eschewing originals for more sequels is because that is what makes money. If people want to be fed endless sequel slop, reboots and remakes, then that is mostly what studios will make.

We, people as a whole, are the problem.

Except they’re not slop, and that’s not a problem.

 

[TP2000]

First pass box office for this weekend is in, gang.

Elio dropped 49% to 3rd place in its second weekend, but was spared 4th place because Megan 2.0 underperformed in its debut. Lilo & Stitch pulled in another $7 Million this week in 6th place. Discuss!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 3, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of October 3, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Lmao, I snorted reading this. I will accept your generous olive branch and shall now refer to it as the metric system of box office calculation.

It's a deal!

Though I think you forgot to divide by two at the end, you nearly still arrived at the right final answer.

What I found interesting is the big swings we get between the two systems when a film is particularly successful or particularly bombing; the Imperial numbers that I use, and the Metric system you use.

Looking at Snow White and Lilo & Stitch particularly, the 2.5x Metric system really boosts it up or sends it way below the Imperial numbers.

Snow White: $272 Million Loss in Imperial vs. $471 Million Loss in Metric
Lilo & Stitch: $246 Million Profit in Imperial vs. $667 Million Profit in Metric

The middling performers like Thunderbolts or Captain America were far closer to each other in each system.

There's likely a mathematical reason for that, but I found it interesting how the Metric system really strengthens a success or really craters a flop.