Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

The price of concessions absolutely matters, and that was, if not specifically mentioned, implied by my generalization of “the price of tickets.“

The bottom line is what used to cost X now costs around 2X. That jump happened quickly. Yes, you are posting from your point of view, and I am posting from mine. I am not going to the theater, sneaking in a drink and abstaining from popcorn or whatever.

The cheapest without specials for two people with shared popcorn and even one drink is around $50. When I was in my 20s, that couldn’t be an impulse purchase. It’s a planned event. The movie never used to cost as much as dinner.

No, that’s not the only reason. But it definitely explains recent history, along with other reasons like Covid (which provides multiple reasons of its own.)

Netflix doesn’t even have a decent selection of movies. It rarely has new ones. That still goes to HBO and what not.

And watching a movie at home in most cases is still a second rate experience.

All of this is far beyond my original point that one movie in 2025 is not the tipping point. That includes if studios overreact to that one movie in 2025. Everything is temporary. Everything has a solution.

I don’t know your life situation, but the prospect of seeing a movie, particularly a family film, with multiple kids in tow is a particularly costly proposition. Even with matinees and such, if they’re available for when you want to go - it’s easy to get around $50 before snacks and concessions. Heck, our local MLB team has a 4-person $100 ticket/food/drinks/parking package. Now, our NFL team regularly commands well in excess of $350/ticket for nosebleeds, but that’s a much more popular sport and team.

 

[Tha Realest]

Brad Pitt is also much more of a draw than Chris Hemsworth, who hasn't had box office success outside of Thor.

Which is odd, because despite being one of the most beautiful human beings to ever walk the earth he also has the sort of on screen charm and comedic chops of a Cary Grant, and is also intensely likeable.

 

[Tha Realest]

Let's do a mid-year checkup on where Burbank stands, shall we? Most of us are Americans so we'll be busy next week with Independence Day Weekend hosting and/or guesting , so we should do this now even though Lilo & Stitch might have another $50 Million in box office left.

It would also tell us what sort of heavy lifting Elio would need to do to get to profitability.

Using the available media info on marketing budgets and using a 60/40 box office take for domestic/foreign; the first five movies from Burbank (and Emeryville) have created a net loss of $245 Million at this year's box office. I don't see any way that Elio could make that up, does anyone else? If anything, Elio seems headed towards a loss of at least $150 Million.

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Foreign $53 = $97 Million Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White: Production $270, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Foreign $47 = $272 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $25, Foreign $22 = $43 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $114, Foreign $77 = $79 Million Loss
Lilo & Stitch: Production $100 (Phew!), Marketing $100, Domestic $236, Foreign $210 = $246 Million Profit
Elio: Production $150, Marketing $75 = ????

View attachment 867347

Or, for our friends on the Metric system and the less specific 2.5X the production blanket formula, you'd get a profit of $37 Million so far.

That means Elio needs to make at least $375 Million at the global box office to break even and in order to not start lowering the current '25 profit of $37 Million. For example, if Elio only does $150 Million at the global box office, the 2025 profit disappears and turns into a $188 Million Loss by the time The Fantastic Four debuts in late July, using the 2.5x formula.

Captain America 4 = $37 Million Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White = $471 Million Loss
The Amateur = $54 Million Loss
Thunderbolts = $68 Million Loss
Lilo & Stitch = $667 Million Profit
Elio = ???

Regardless of what Elio does, or doesn't do, at the box office, it's obvious to me that the star of this year's box office show is the team at Rideback Ranch that Burbank farmed out Lilo & Stitch to on the cheap for only $100 Million. If Rideback Ranch can produce a reasonably big hit and make a fat profit no matter which way you slice it with a budget roughly half the normal size Disney spends, why can't the Disney team on the Burbank campus do that same thing with the same IP?

Where does all that money go on the Burbank lot?

Rideback Ranch | Los Angeles

Founded by Dan Lin, Rideback Ranch supports and empowers visionary storytellers who share our passion for entertaining audiences across all genres and around the globe.

ridebackranch.com

I love these updates. I have an uneasy feeling about FF. The end of the year has the 1-2 combo of Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 (I don’t believe we’ve seen any marketing on those yet?) so that should make up all the lost ground.

 

[DKampy]

If F1 hits…. That kind of goes against the narrative that Action is faltering and Horror is trending… in fact (I have not seen either film yet)I predict that F1 will gross more worldwide then Jurassic

 

[Miss Rori]

If F1 hits…. That kind of goes against the narrative that Action is faltering and Horror is trending… in fact (I have not seen either film yet)I predict that F1 will gross more worldwide then Jurassic

Given early word on Jurassic World: Rebirth has been sour (this past week it turned up as a one-off Mystery Movie screening at some Regal theaters, which is not typical for a tentpole picture, and those who saw it don't seem impressed) this might happen! Actually, Universal hasn't pushed it as hard as I expected they would, especially compared to the How to Train Your Dragon remake. And I've even seen new Wicked merchandise creeping onto the market or being made available for pre-orders in anticipation of its Part Two (which likely will be the one real, punchy challenger for the box office haul Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash are out for - I think all three will get along just fine), now that back-to-school sales are gearing up.

ThaRealest, I agree things aren't looking great for Fantastic Four: First Steps. The marketing push is there but it doesn't pop - as a friend pointed out, doing a retro bottle tie-in with Snapple as opposed to Coke or Pepsi doesn't scream enthusiasm. By comparison WB is chugging along with its Superman promotional efforts.

 

[Ghost93]

Which is odd, because despite being one of the most beautiful human beings to ever walk the earth he also has the sort of on screen charm and comedic chops of a Cary Grant, and is also intensely likeable.

People LIKE Chris Hemsworth and he is very talented. But, for whatever reason, they just don't show up to support his movies. It's very unfortunate because he checks all the boxes for a movie star.

Of course, maybe it's just hard to create movie stars nowadays, and Pitt is just lucky his career started about two decades before Chris Hemsworth's did.

 

[Tha Realest]

ThaRealest, I agree things aren't looking great for Fantastic Four: First Steps. The marketing push is there but it doesn't pop - as a friend pointed out, doing a retro bottle tie-in with Snapple as opposed to Coke or Pepsi doesn't scream enthusiasm. By comparison WB is chugging along with its Superman promotional efforts.

Yeah, Superman marketing is really saturated and inescapable. I also feel a lot of it is just the leads (and randomly the director, as if he is a star of the film himself) doing quick videos and appearances that pop up everywhere. I seriously feel like the two main leads have worked FT the last two months doing nothing but media appearances. Whether and how that translates to box office returns, we’ll see.

As far as FF, they both seem to be doing the conventional, check the box marketing efforts and making some bizarre choices (the tie in you mentioned versus mainline brands, featuring tertiary characters like HERBIE before the film even comes out). Again, it looks like JPR will at least launch with a nice opening weekend number. I also feel like audiences are more forgiving in terms of quality for JP films (much like Fast&Furious films). They don’t so much expect quality as they do certain intrinsic action beats and sequences in the films.

People LIKE Chris Hemsworth and he is very talented. But, for whatever reason, they just don't show up to support his movies. It's very unfortunate because he checks all the boxes for a movie star.

Of course, maybe it's just hard to create movie stars nowadays, and Pitt is just lucky his career started about two decades before Chris Hemsworth's did.

It’s really a head scratcher. You could’ve built an actor in a lab to be the quintessential movie star and that creation still wouldn’t match against Hemsworth. He can nail the five major roles for an actor - lead, supporting, comedic, dramatic, and action star - and sometimes more than one at once. And yet! Audiences don’t show up for his one off films.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I really hope Jurassic doesn’t suck. Big fan of the franchise. The last one was the only one I wasn’t crazy about. Two bad ones in a row =

 

[brideck]

The bottom line is what used to cost X now costs around 2X. That jump happened quickly. Yes, you are posting from your point of view, and I am posting from mine. I am not going to the theater, sneaking in a drink and abstaining from popcorn or whatever.

Then I guess the theaters shot themselves in the foot by making customers think that they have to have this stuff and then making it more expensive. I'm just there for the movies, and we'll maybe split a single something 30-50% of the time. With how often we go, if I were eating buttery popcorn and drinking massive sodas 3-4 times a week, I'd have a bunch of other problems.

I guess my only point is that the actual act of watching movies in public is not that expensive, but the mass psychology of the experience makes it so. If people really wanted to see movies more, they could break free of that and do so. People pinch pennies everywhere else. Why not here? [Answer: Because watching stuff at home has a much lower path of resistance.]

 

[Animaniac93-98]

F1's estimate is $55 million for the weekend, best for any Apple original movie

Elio expected to drop 45% in its second weekend to $11-$12 million

M3GAN 2 should have picked another weekend to open because it may only get $10 million

 

[DKampy]

F1's estimate is $55 million for the weekend, best for any Apple original movie

Elio expected to drop 45% in its second weekend to $11-$12 million

M3GAN 2 should have picked another weekend to open because it may only get $10 million

I think F1 may go higher when actuals are in…. Every time they updated the projections increased….with what started out as an expected 30…. Even yesterday they were projecting 50… so it has increased another 5 since then…. I think this will be a big ol hit… especially international…. We’re formula 1 is enormous….it seems to have good word of mouth as even people who don’t care for racing seem to be really enjoying it… I will find out Sunday… as I am in the car racing is boring camp… it is just cars driving in a circle to me

Yes… ouch for Megan…. looks like it will finish forth this weekend….positioning it as a summer blockbuster was an odd move… I suppose they wanted to give Soulm8te it’s slow January date…. Although I think Megan may have been lighting in bottle… that is the issue with meme movies…. They risk being outdated rather quickly

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I'm just there for the movies, and we'll maybe split a single something 30-50% of the time.

I’d like to see statistics on how unusual that is.

Generally speaking, if I’m too broke for popcorn, I’m probably too broke to go to the movies at all. That whole Disney Renaissance time? I was too broke. It had to be something I was dying to see.

And personally, I don’t buy into mass anything. I make my own choices, and I’ve never had a lack of willpower or anything like that. On the contrary, I’m a control freak, and quite thrifty. Even today, my WDW TR’s here are under the moniker “Two broke guys.”

I’m sure there are plenty of people who do come under the spell of “mass psychology,” as you put it. I count among them people who feel entitled to have giant sodas with free refills everywhere they go. (I gave it up 30 years ago, but I can’t put my stuff on everyone else.)

But popcorn is part of the experience for me. I actually love popcorn, and movie popcorn tastes different than popcorn at home. I’m sure it’s much less healthy than what I have at home, but I don’t go so often that it’s an issue.

My husband will get the one sugar-free soda, and the only time I touch it is if I get popcorn stuck in my throat lol.

If we go to the theater that has full meals, sometimes we will have a full meal, though they are usually meh.

Just like Disney or any other recreational activity, different people do the movies different ways, and those ways may change in different times of their lives based on cost, health, or other reasons. That’s why we have to look at averages, trying not to overemphasize our own biases.

Without looking things up, my guess is my original point was accurate for the average movie goer. I assume the average movie goer buys concessions to varying degrees.

 

[brideck]

Without looking things up, my guess is my original point was accurate for the average movie goer. I assume the average movie goer buys concessions to varying degrees.

I assume that I'm an outlier and that this is the case, too.

I also don't think that has to necessarily be so, if people just wanted to watch movies as a collective experience. But people don't. They want to go to the movies, and that's been crafted as this bells and whistles experience (by the theaters themselves -- "Let's all go to the lobby!") that has now become more expensive.

 

[DKampy]

I assume that I'm an outlier and that this is the case, too.

I also don't think that has to necessarily be so, if people just wanted to watch movies as a collective experience. But people don't. They want to go to the movies, and that's been crafted as this bells and whistles experience (by the theaters themselves -- "Let's all go to the lobby!") that has now become more expensive.

As I always say….we find it is the cheapest form of entertainment for us…but we don’t usually buy concessions…. We will sneak in a drink…thanks to my wife’s purse….As we go to see the movies themselves… as we are both movie people and will watch anything from small Indy’s to huge blockbusters…. We also belong to our local chain’s movie club…. Which is 10.00 day or night… so it’s only $20.00 for the 2 of us…. But I can see how it might add up for families

 

[Disney Irish]

I’d like to see statistics on how unusual that is.

Generally speaking, if I’m too broke for popcorn, I’m probably too broke to go to the movies at all. That whole Disney Renaissance time? I was too broke. It had to be something I was dying to see.

And personally, I don’t buy into mass anything. I make my own choices, and I’ve never had a lack of willpower or anything like that. On the contrary, I’m a control freak, and quite thrifty. Even today, my WDW TR’s here are under the moniker “Two broke guys.”

I’m sure there are plenty of people who do come under the spell of “mass psychology,” as you put it. I count among them people who feel entitled to have giant sodas with free refills everywhere they go. (I gave it up 30 years ago, but I can’t put my stuff on everyone else.)

But popcorn is part of the experience for me. I actually love popcorn, and movie popcorn tastes different than popcorn at home. I’m sure it’s much less healthy than what I have at home, but I don’t go so often that it’s an issue.

My husband will get the one sugar-free soda, and the only time I touch it is if I get popcorn stuck in my throat lol.

If we go to the theater that has full meals, sometimes we will have a full meal, though they are usually meh.

Just like Disney or any other recreational activity, different people do the movies different ways, and those ways may change in different times of their lives based on cost, health, or other reasons. That’s why we have to look at averages, trying not to overemphasize our own biases.

Without looking things up, my guess is my original point was accurate for the average movie goer. I assume the average movie goer buys concessions to varying degrees.

I assume that I'm an outlier and that this is the case, too.

I also don't think that has to necessarily be so, if people just wanted to watch movies as a collective experience. But people don't. They want to go to the movies, and that's been crafted as this bells and whistles experience (by the theaters themselves -- "Let's all go to the lobby!") that has now become more expensive.

As I always say….we find it is the cheapest form of entertainment for us…but we don’t usually buy concessions…. We will sneak in a drink…thanks to my wife’s purse….As we go to see the movies themselves… as we are both movie people and will watch anything from small Indy’s to huge blockbusters…. We also belong to our local chain’s movie club…. Which is 10.00 day or night… so it’s only $20.00 for the 2 of us…. But I can see how it might add up for families

I think the larger take away here is that there is not one size fits all situation when it comes to movies. There are extremes on each side where people will continue to find ways to always go, and then there will be people that will avoid it at all costs due to whatever factor be it price, crowds, etc.

But like everything in life I think it lies somewhere in the middle, where the trend suggests that for the average movie goer they go only once or twice a year. And that it appears that the younger generations, just like many other trends, are leading the way in terms of skipping the movies in favor of other forms of entertainment (though GenZ tend to be an outlier as they go more often than many other younger generations, we'll see if that trend continues).

Here was a study done, don't know how accurate, but it draws some of the same conclusions that have been discussed here before, namely that people are more often than not to wait until the movie is available at home to see it.

Do Americans Visit the Theater or Has Streaming Taken Over?

Learn what factors drive Americans to choose their living rooms over movie theaters, and vice versa. Discover key insights and trends across generations.

octaneseating.com

So take it for what its worth. But I think the theater owners have a right to be concerned that the movie going experience may only have a decade or two left.

 

[Disney Irish]

I will find out Sunday… as I am in the car racing is boring camp… it is just cars driving in a circle to me

Well good thing that Formula One (known simply as F1 hence the title of the movie) doesn't go around in a circle like Nascar.

I'm not a big fan of racing either, but my company has become involved with F1 so I've followed it a bit.

 

[Miss Rori]

Yeah, Superman marketing is really saturated and inescapable. I also feel a lot of it is just the leads (and randomly the director, as if he is a star of the film himself) doing quick videos and appearances that pop up everywhere. I seriously feel like the two main leads have worked FT the last two months doing nothing but media appearances. Whether and how that translates to box office returns, we’ll see.

WB has been shaping up of late when it comes to promoting their movies. They have a hand in F1 right now, and that's paying off already. And if Jurassic World: Rebirth turns out not to be a barn-burner, that opens up a route for Superman to make it big.

Again, it looks like JPR will at least launch with a nice opening weekend number. I also feel like audiences are more forgiving in terms of quality for JP films (much like Fast&Furious films). They don’t so much expect quality as they do certain intrinsic action beats and sequences in the films.

This is a valid point. It'll likely have a big first weekend no matter which way the critical winds blow, especially with the holiday and all, but after that there could be some steep week-to-week dropoffs if the masses aren't impressed.

Meanwhile, Elio isn't shaping up - yet? - to be the next Elemental; it's looking at a 48% dropoff from the previous weekend. I think its last hope is a massive influx of families over the holiday weekend, and that will also depend on whether multiplexes cut back on showtimes to make space for JP.

 

[BrianLo]

Or, for our friends on the Metric system and the less specific 2.5X the production blanket formula, you'd get a profit of $37 Million so far.

Lmao, I snorted reading this. I will accept your generous olive branch and shall now refer to it as the metric system of box office calculation.

Though I think you forgot to divide by two at the end, you nearly still arrived at the right final answer.

 

[coffeefan]

Pixar called out people who say they want original movies.

 

[Agent H]

Pixar called out people who say they want original movies.

This is surprisingly forward. Good.