Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

That is not objective, that is subjective as in your opinion. Because fatigue isn't defined by being able to some successes, its defined by the amount of successes compared to failures. And when you have over 90% of a genres releases flopping or underperforming that is a sign of fatigue.

Ok.

Well thus far the top performers this year are objectively Horror and Family. And the lowest are action and superhero.

There are hundreds of outliers, but look at the top.

Many failures does not equal fatigue. Audiences not seeing value in anything the genre puts out regardless of quality can.

 

[brideck]

There have been 23 or so releases in 2025 for horror so far. There have only been 2 actually that performed well, the rest flopped or under performed. So I wouldn't call that "multiple examples" of success, I'd call that fatigue.

I think this is overstating things a bit. Using the agreed upon formula (which I know doesn't necessarily hold up for smaller budgeted films), only 14 movies have made it to profitability at the box office so far in 2025, and 8 of them are horror or horror-adjacent.

Sinners, Final Destination: Bloodlines, The Monkey, Clown in a Cornfield, and Presence all had especially solid returns on their investment. Companion, Until Dawn, and Drop all did a touch better than breakeven.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well thus far the top performers this year are objectively Horror and Family. And the lowest are action and superhero.

There are hundreds of outliers, but look at the top.

Are we talking WW, because horror doesn't break the top 5 -

 

[celluloid]

Are we talking WW, because horror doesn't break the top 5 -

View attachment 862189

Different subject and horror never will because many countries have superstitions on the Paranormal...and some enough to have bans.

Does not chamgee the taste for performance.

You are shifting points again.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think this is overstating things a bit. Using the agreed upon formula (which I know doesn't necessarily hold up for smaller budgeted films), only 14 movies have made it to profitability at the box office so far in 2025, and 8 of them are horror or horror-adjacent.

Sinners, Final Destination: Bloodlines, The Monkey, Clown in a Cornfield, and Presence all had especially solid returns on their investment. Companion, Until Dawn, and Drop all did a touch better than breakeven.

As you said the formula doesn't hold for smaller budget films as they typically spend over 100% for marketing, so you can't use the normal 2.5x, I usually use 3-4x just to account for the 100%+ marketing. So most of those outside of Sinners and Bloodlines flopped or under performed.

 

[Disney Irish]

Different subject and horror never will because many countries have superstitions on the Paranormal...and some enough to have bans.

Does not cha ge the performance.

You are shifting points again.

I'm not shifting, I'm just trying to understand where you're coming from. Because WW box office is usually how we track things in this thread. So if horror doesn't perform well outside of domestic, then I wouldn't really call that top performers, objectively.

I don't think you're really being objective here, rather you're trying to defend horror tooth and claw. And I get it where you are because you love it. But we should be objective here and look at the actual data rather than opinion. So that is why I'm providing the actual charts rather than just opinion.

 

[celluloid]

Final Destination: Bloodlines is the sixth film in a series over two decades old rocked the box office critically and commercially for its genre. It was up against the best original story of the decade, both horror based.

If fatigue was here for Horror, that would not happen.

There are more releases for horror theatrically than there has been in a long time. Failures are still possible and will happen but the amount of failures is not the same as audience fatigue.
it just means more are trying to be with the trend.

Family and horror have been the best business for box office audience tasteshis year thus far.

Not sure why you think I am defending horror when I am just as much saying family films have hits too.

 

[Disney Irish]

Final Destination: Bloodlines is the sixth film in a series over two decades old rocked the box office critically and commercially for its genre. It was up against the best original story of the decade, both horror based.

If fatigue was here for Horror, that would not happen.

There are more releases for horror theatrically than there has been in a long time. Failures are still possible and will happen but the amount of failures is not the same as audience fatigue.
it just means more are trying to be with the trend.

Family and horror habe been the best business for box office audience tasteshis year thus far.

Honestly, I mean this with all respect, you're sounding like I was about 3-4 years ago when talking about the MCU. It took me a bit of time but I got to the point of accepting that there was fatigue, maybe someday you'll get there too with horror.

Also as another poster pointed out Sinners is the "best original story" domestic only. It'll never catch Elemental worldwide. And I would also put A Quiet Place ahead of it as "best original story" in the last decade, if I'm being honest.

 

[celluloid]

Honestly, I mean this with all respect, you're sounding like I was about 3-4 years ago when talking about the MCU. It took me a bit of time but I got to the point of accepting that there was fatigue, maybe someday you'll get there too with horror.

Also as another poster pointed out Sinners is the "best original story" domestic only. It'll never catch Elemental worldwide. And I would also put A Quiet Place ahead of it as "best original story" in the last decade, if I'm being honest.

Yeah. It could go there. but that is not what is being said. It is what is happening right now. Everything gets fatigue. This is why I used the term era to begin with. You are just keeping this going for no reason. And for some reason, defiantly just can't say "good point" or just nothing at all.

Superhero had their era of low risk because of the shoulders, and now Horror and Family films are having the top time now.

I never stated it was invincible. No genre and era is. You are kind of making a passively condescending argument like I am armature.

So far it is a family film and horror year for audiences.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah. It could go there. but that is not what is being said. It is what is happening right now. Everything gets fatigue. This is why I used the term era to begin with. You are just keeping this going for no reason.

Superhero had their era of low risk because of the shoulders, and now Horror and Family films are having the top time now.

I never stated it was invincible. No genre and era is. You are kind of making a passively condescending argument like I am armature.

Fatigue doesn't happen all at once, its a gradual thing. So of course there is going to be still hits here and there. That is the part I think you're missing, as you think it having hits shows there is no fatigue.

So lets just agree to disagree. You think there is no fatigue right now in horror, I think its already started. We'll see how the rest of the 2025 horror slate does, maybe we can come to some better understanding at the end of it.

Also I wasn't trying to be condescending, I was trying to show that I understood where you were coming from because I was in the same place not too long ago.

 

[celluloid]

Fatigue doesn't happen all at once, its a gradual thing. So of course there is going to be still hits here and there. That is the part I think you're missing, as you think it having hits shows there is no fatigue.

So lets just agree to disagree. You think there is no fatigue right now in horror, I think its already started. We'll see how the rest of the 2025 horror slate does, maybe we can come to some better understanding at the end of it.

Also I wasn't trying to be condescending, I was trying to show that I understood where you were coming from because I was in the same place not too long ago.

Yes, you are splitting hairs here. No one ever claimed impervious.

Fatigue could be at the start of horror. That is kind of how it works early on. When many are a hit, many studios and producers chase the trend. That is kind of how success works. You could make a case for when it is at the top it is on its way out. That is not the same as what was said and I think you are smart enough to know this.
When the sixth final destination, a series over 25 years old outperforms most of its predecessors while another horror movie plays at the same time breaks records...

that's not fatigue in effect. It is not in the same part of the life cycle that big budget superhero films are in.

You are not discussing in good faith. You are projecting and predicting, and others are speaking objective facts.

I standby that it is foolish to think that horror and family films are in the same fatigue cycle that superhero and action films are in.


Lilo and Stitch
Minecraft
Final Destination
Sinners

Are of the biggest successes avalible performers to audiences of the year thus far.
Family and horror features are not even close to a latter part of a fatigue cycle when speaking of THIS YEAR

Objectively.

 

[Disney Irish]

Fatigue could be at the start of horror,

I'm happy you can acknowledge that because it seemed like you were hard-pressed to acknowledge that it could be happening.

but when the sixth final destination, a series over 25 years old outperforms most of its predecessors while another horror movie breaks records...

Maybe I didn't acknowledge it and that is why you keep bring this up, so let me clear this right now. I'm beyond THRILLED that Final Destination 6 and especially Sinners has been successful, its a literally boon for the genre and industry as a whole for them to be successful. That was never in question about the performance of those two movies. They did great.

that's not fatigue in effect. It is not in the same part of the life cycle that big budget superhero films are in.

You are not discussing in good faith. You are projecting and predicting, and others are speaking objective facts.

I standby that it is foolish to think that horror and family films are in the same fatigue cycle that superhero and action films are in.

Now who is the one splitting hairs....

I never said horror was in the same spot as superheros are in terms of fatigue. And I certainly never said anything about action films. I briefly mentioned family films in one post, but I don't even think they are anywhere close to being fatigued. All I've been talking about are horror films, that is it. You are lumping all the rest of this together as if I'm trying to say all these genres are the same, and I never did.

So again lets agree to disagree, and just see how the rest of 2025 plays out. Maybe we can revisit this at the end of the year and come to some agreement, or maybe not. Either way lets move on.

 

[celluloid]

Never once did I say anything was impervious.

Since the start.

If it makes you feel like you win to say "being at the top is the start of fatigue" then go for it. And if it seems to you that I felt that way, that any genre wnt face fatigue, when each post said I did not feel that way, I am not sure how else to express it.

And anyone who continues to respond multiple times to claim things that no one said after saying they agree to disagree, can't even agree with themself.

 

[Disney Irish]

Never once did I say anything was impervious.

Since the start.

If it makes you feel like you win to say "being at the top is the start of fatigue" then go for it. And if it seems to you that I felt that way when each post said I did not feel that way, I am not sure how else to express it.

And anyone who continues to respond multiple times to claim things that no one said after saying they agree to disagree, can't even agree with themself.

There is no "winning" or "losing" here, its a discussion nothing more. But thank you for the discussion.

 

[celluloid]

Posting things I did not say, to the point of claiming the opposite is not a discussion.

 

[Disney Irish]

Posting things I did not say, to the point of claiming the opposite is not a discussion.

I'm sorry, maybe you're misinterpreting some of the things I've posted. I'll even acknowledge that its possible I've misinterpreted some of the things you posted when I was responding. So it happens to all of us.

I have no hard feelings here, it was all just a discussion to me just like every other. It appears to me that you are upset, so I apologize if that is the case. I get that you are very passionate about the horror genre, so please don't take any of this personal. Again it was just a discussion.

 

[celluloid]

I'm sorry, maybe you're misinterpreting some of the things I've posted. I'll even acknowledge that its possible I've misinterpreted some of the things you posted when I was responding. So it happens to all of us.

I appreciate this.

 

[DKampy]

To add to the horror fatigue discussion… .there does appear to be some…. This is apparent in Smile 2 results…. That should of been a slam Dunk… a sequel to a word of mouth smash hit… which also had good reviews

Also Sinners and Final Destination may both
Be technically horror…. They went after very different audiences… the later it was all about the kills…while the former was about more then the horror… it attracted people who don’t normally watch horror…. IMO has a good chance to be nominated for an Oscar

 

[celluloid]

To add to the horror fatigue discussion… .there does appear to be some…. This is apparent in Smile 2 results…. That should of been a slam Dunk… a sequel to a word of mouth smash hit… which also had good reviews

Also Sinners and Final Destination may both
Be technically horror…. They went after very different audiences… the later it was all about the kills…while the former was about more then the horror… it attracted people who don’t normally watch horror…. IMO has a good chance to be nominated for an Oscar

Horror sequels almost always have diminishing returns by sequels. So Final Destination 6 at this point is relatively anomaly with such a gap between releases, but a gap honestly probably helped it most. As with many of us here, is what we have said Marvel should have done to let it breathe and not become westerns.

As for genre incorporating:
This is how genres work best.
Terminator to T2
Alien to Aliens.
You can see M3gan doing this same thing with the sequel to avoid the straightforward killer AI sequel.(not sure if it will do better than the first, but it will help it not lose money I imagine if it keeps people's interests more than alienates)


You see Superheroes have been trying to do this for a long while which is why we are further in the cycle of fatigue with them. Dr. Strange and Sony's have certainly attempted the action horror angle. Some with continued success and some without quality. Then the buddy raunchy comedy of course has been done and that helped Deadpool by people who were tired of seeing other superhero films.

Star Wars did this too. Solo was an attempt at a Heist movie, Rogue one was strictly the rebel spy angle stealing plans angle.

Putting a spin on it is nothing new of course.


For box office purposes, it typically is the best counter programing one can have outside of Barbie and Oppenheimer situations.

 

[DKampy]

Horror sequels almost always have diminishing returns by sequels. So Final Destination 6 at this point is relatively anomaly with such a gap between releases, but a gap honestly probably helped it most. As with many of us here, is what we have said Marvel should have done to let it breathe and not become westerns.

As for genre incorporating:
This is how genres work best.
Terminator to T2
Alien to Aliens.
You can see M3gan doing this same thing with the sequel to avoid the straightforward killer AI sequel.(not sure if it will do better than the first, but it will help it not lose money I imagine if it keeps people's interests more than alienates)


You see Superheroes have been trying to do this for a long while which is why we are further in the cycle of fatigue with them. Dr. Strange and Sony's have certainly attempted the action horror angle. Some with continued success and some without quality. Then the buddy raunchy comedy of course has been done and that helped Deadpool by people who were tired of seeing other superhero films.

Star Wars did this too. Solo was an attempt at a Heist movie, Rogue one was strictly the rebel spy angle stealing plans angle.

Putting a spin on it is nothing new of course.


For box office purposes, it typically is the best counter programing one can have outside of Barbie and Oppenheimer situations.

Usually a deline happens because a drop off in quality… as most horror sequels are cash grabs with cheap jump scares. Sequels to buzz worthy horror films such as Scream and The Conjuring kept up with the same profits as their predecessors….But Smile 2 had a significant drop off… even Saw actually became more popular despite the first one being the only good film in the series