Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

To add to the horror fatigue discussion… .there does appear to be some…. This is apparent in Smile 2 results…. That should of been a slam Dunk… a sequel to a word of mouth smash hit… which also had good reviews

Also Sinners and Final Destination may both
Be technically horror…. They went after very different audiences… the later it was all about the kills…while the former was about more then the horror… it attracted people who don’t normally watch horror…. IMO has a good chance to be nominated for an Oscar

 

[celluloid]

To add to the horror fatigue discussion… .there does appear to be some…. This is apparent in Smile 2 results…. That should of been a slam Dunk… a sequel to a word of mouth smash hit… which also had good reviews

Also Sinners and Final Destination may both
Be technically horror…. They went after very different audiences… the later it was all about the kills…while the former was about more then the horror… it attracted people who don’t normally watch horror…. IMO has a good chance to be nominated for an Oscar

Horror sequels almost always have diminishing returns by sequels. So Final Destination 6 at this point is relatively anomaly with such a gap between releases, but a gap honestly probably helped it most. As with many of us here, is what we have said Marvel should have done to let it breathe and not become westerns.

As for genre incorporating:
This is how genres work best.
Terminator to T2
Alien to Aliens.
You can see M3gan doing this same thing with the sequel to avoid the straightforward killer AI sequel.(not sure if it will do better than the first, but it will help it not lose money I imagine if it keeps people's interests more than alienates)


You see Superheroes have been trying to do this for a long while which is why we are further in the cycle of fatigue with them. Dr. Strange and Sony's have certainly attempted the action horror angle. Some with continued success and some without quality. Then the buddy raunchy comedy of course has been done and that helped Deadpool by people who were tired of seeing other superhero films.

Star Wars did this too. Solo was an attempt at a Heist movie, Rogue one was strictly the rebel spy angle stealing plans angle.

Putting a spin on it is nothing new of course.


For box office purposes, it typically is the best counter programing one can have outside of Barbie and Oppenheimer situations.

 

[DKampy]

Horror sequels almost always have diminishing returns by sequels. So Final Destination 6 at this point is relatively anomaly with such a gap between releases, but a gap honestly probably helped it most. As with many of us here, is what we have said Marvel should have done to let it breathe and not become westerns.

As for genre incorporating:
This is how genres work best.
Terminator to T2
Alien to Aliens.
You can see M3gan doing this same thing with the sequel to avoid the straightforward killer AI sequel.(not sure if it will do better than the first, but it will help it not lose money I imagine if it keeps people's interests more than alienates)


You see Superheroes have been trying to do this for a long while which is why we are further in the cycle of fatigue with them. Dr. Strange and Sony's have certainly attempted the action horror angle. Some with continued success and some without quality. Then the buddy raunchy comedy of course has been done and that helped Deadpool by people who were tired of seeing other superhero films.

Star Wars did this too. Solo was an attempt at a Heist movie, Rogue one was strictly the rebel spy angle stealing plans angle.

Putting a spin on it is nothing new of course.


For box office purposes, it typically is the best counter programing one can have outside of Barbie and Oppenheimer situations.

Usually a deline happens because a drop off in quality… as most horror sequels are cash grabs with cheap jump scares. Sequels to buzz worthy horror films such as Scream and The Conjuring kept up with the same profits as their predecessors….But Smile 2 had a significant drop off… even Saw actually became more popular despite the first one being the only good film in the series

 

[celluloid]

Usually a deline happens because a drop off in quality… as most horror sequels are cash grabs with cheap jump scares. Sequels to buzz worthy horror films such as Scream and The Conjuring kept up with the same profits as their predecessors….But Smile 2 had a significant drop off… even Saw actually became more popular despite the first one being the only good film in the series

Definitely no absolutes and not the cult following and growth that the first had, but even it, made profit.

Definitely agree with the first Saw. At least it was seven-esque and like other films the creators were inspired by.

 

[Nevermore525]

I just want Predator: Badlands to do well enough to give another iteration of Alien vs Predator. Already teasing the possibility from the trailer

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

….sooo…about that box office…

 

[DKampy]

Definitely no absolutes and not the cult following and growth that the first had, but even it, made profit.

Yes…that is a plus for Horror and why it will never go away… they can produce it on the cheap… even in Horror’s least popular phases it can still be profitable…Does not mean it was not a disappointment from what was expected

Clown in a Cornfield and Presence was profitable…, but I think they were wanting more… especially the latter with it’s drone ghost POV gimmick

A couple of years ago it felt like horror was your surest bet… that feels like it is no longer the case

If both Superman and Fantastic Four both hit… Are you going to say Comic book movies are back… I think both of those are going to be the top superhero movies of the year… I think it is possible if WOM is good…Supes has already hit Long term tracking…. Right now it is projected at 155-175…also to be clear… I am a non-biased participant in this discussion… I will watch any genre… all I want is good films

 

[Tony the Tigger]

If both Superman and Fantastic Four both hit… Are you going to say Comic book movies are back

People have to stop looking at short term results as trends.

 

[celluloid]

Yes…that is a plus for Horror and why it will never go away… they can produce it on the cheap… even in Horror’s least popular phases it can still be profitable…Does not mean it was not a disappointment from what was expected

Clown in a Cornfield and Presence was profitable…, but I think they were wanting more… especially the latter with it’s drone ghost POV gimmick

A couple of years ago it felt like horror was your surest bet… that feels like it is no longer the case

If both Superman and Fantastic Four both hit…

Define hit. It could help the audience trust and taste cycle upswing.

I don't see them performing better on their investments than the family or horror success there has been in this year so far.
Superman and Fantastic Four have a better chance due to likeability in artists involved and if they are actually heavily enjoyed.

I think Jurassic World, Superman and Fantastic Four are all going to suffer from Fatigue and likely not hit the domestic 400 million plus mark with ease.

It's not about superhero films specificially, they are just the biggest culprit and hardest falling.

 

[brideck]

re: comic book movies -- fatigue, etc.

Even though I don't often share mainstream tastes, I think the movie-going public is pretty aware of the overarching meta of these various franchises. The halcyon days of the MCU are mostly due to the belief that it was all leading to something as a cohesive whole and that that endpoint was going to have a payoff, so all of those movies had inflated performance compared to what a disconnected movie starring the same characters would have had. Likewise, today, people know that there isn't a coherent larger story driving things and are opting out of most of the movies, catching up on whatever interests them on streaming as time allows. If Disney can recapture that sense of direction (or alternatively have each movie contain a can't-miss event -- 3 Spider-Men in 1 movie! Deadpool *and* Wolverine together at last!) then they'll regain plenty of the zeitgeist/event viewers.

For DC, you can't really point at the last handful of movies as representing any real trend. Regardless of the quality of any of the individual movies, everyone knew that they were the last, sad spasms of a connected universe that had had the rug pulled out from under it. There is no world in which movies like that will do well in today's market because (see above) there's largely a misguided sense that superhero movies need to "matter" to a larger story in order to get a large audience. Similarly, people know that the new Superman movie is the start of something new, though it remains to be seen what exactly that something will be. Gunn and Safran's plans seem to be ever-shifting other than knowing what the first 2 movies will be.

I'd categorize expectations for these movies like this:
$400m-$600m -- generic DC/Marvel entries
$600m-$800m -- name-brand DC/Marvel entries (Batman, Superman, etc.)
$800m+ -- zeitgeist releases (either through events(!) or overarching story)

The MCU's last two movies have been just at the bottom of acceptable, and Thunderbolts* is starting to drop off a little faster than Cap 4 did, so it's more than understandable that Disney would pull back a little until they can either focus things toward the next big story or find a way to bring budgets down just a touch for these lower expectation movies. These returns wouldn't be questioned so much if Cap 4/Bolts cost $120m each, like Venom 3 or Kraven.

 

[Disney Irish]

Define hit. It could help the audience trust and taste cycle upswing.

I don't see them performing better on their investments than the family or horror success there has been in this year so far.
Superman and Fantastic Four have a better chance due to likeability in artists involved and if they are actually heavily enjoyed.

I think Jurassic World, Superman and Fantastic Four are all going to suffer from Fatigue and likely not hit the domestic 400 million plus mark with ease.

It's not about superhero films specificially, they are just the biggest culprit and hardest falling.

You realize that crossing the $400M mark domestically is an incredibly hard task for any film no matter the genre, right? Only 52 films in the history of cinema have crossed that mark like ever, and only 10 of those have happened post-pandemic. The point is that its not a regular occurrence, certainly not the norm, and not really a metric to determine success or even fatigue, especially in the post-pandemic era. At this point a movie has to really be special, ie having a cultural impact, for it to cross $400M domestic.

I appreciate your point-of-view, but I think this one is just not realistic, as its not a metric that I think many films can hit so not something that one should use to determine anything.

 

[celluloid]

You realize that crossing the $400M mark domestically is an incredibly hard task for any film no matter the genre, right? Only 52 films in the history of cinema have crossed that mark like ever, and only 10 of those have happened post-pandemic. The point is that its not a regular occurrence, certainly not the norm, and not really a metric to determine success or even fatigue, especially in the post-pandemic era. At this point a movie has to really be special, ie having a cultural impact, for it to cross $400M domestic.

Of course I realize it. That is why I made the point! We are about to have two movies(and more later) do it this year. The franchises that typically do it or near it should do so with ease...until they don't. And they are typically not anymore.
Tue ones that are crossing it are now typically lower than the 200 million budget the era did.
Partly pandemic...

But mostly fatigue.

 

[Disney Irish]

Of course I realize it. That is why I made the point! We are about to have two movies(and more later) do it this year. The franchises that typically do it or near it should do so woth ease...until they don't. And they are typically not anymore.
Partly pandemic...

But mostly fatigue.

Maybe our definitions are different, but when someone uses typical that means to me its a regular occurrence. And as I just showed this is not something that happens regularly.

For example no DC movies outside of Nolan's Batman trilogy has ever crossed $400M domestic. And I certainly don't think that this new Superman movie will do it. As that is just a franchise that is not typically going to cross that mark. As for the MCU, only 30%, (or 11 of the 36 current films) have ever crossed that mark. So again its not typical for that franchise either, and certainly not done with ease.

I think this is just a metric that isn't realistic, and just automatically sets things up for failure.

 

[DKampy]

Of course I realize it. That is why I made the point! We are about to have two movies(and more later) do it this year.

Yes and perhaps the only other movie that will do that this year is Avatar….so is fantasy Science Fiction on a upward trend

 

[celluloid]

Yes and perhaps the only other movie that will do that this year is Avatar….so is fantasy Science Fiction on a upward trend

Maybe it is. I don't see Avatar 3 doing anywhere close to the first 2. Of course the first wa a phenom and the second burned too many people. Of course still likely to pass 400 but it's got it's own fatigue that the studio is fine with.

Wicked 2 is also a safe bet.

I think How to Train your Dragon has an honest shot but will probably stay around 300-360 if ot fairs well.


But the objective point remains. This year, family and horror are what audiences are seeing near top spots for the studio's investments.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

re: comic book movies -- fatigue, etc.

Even though I don't often share mainstream tastes, I think the movie-going public is pretty aware of the overarching meta of these various franchises. The halcyon days of the MCU are mostly due to the belief that it was all leading to something as a cohesive whole and that that endpoint was going to have a payoff, so all of those movies had inflated performance compared to what a disconnected movie starring the same characters would have had. Likewise, today, people know that there isn't a coherent larger story driving things and are opting out of most of the movies, catching up on whatever interests them on streaming as time allows. If Disney can recapture that sense of direction (or alternatively have each movie contain a can't-miss event -- 3 Spider-Men in 1 movie! Deadpool *and* Wolverine together at last!) then they'll regain plenty of the zeitgeist/event viewers.

For DC, you can't really point at the last handful of movies as representing any real trend. Regardless of the quality of any of the individual movies, everyone knew that they were the last, sad spasms of a connected universe that had had the rug pulled out from under it. There is no world in which movies like that will do well in today's market because (see above) there's largely a misguided sense that superhero movies need to "matter" to a larger story in order to get a large audience. Similarly, people know that the new Superman movie is the start of something new, though it remains to be seen what exactly that something will be. Gunn and Safran's plans seem to be ever-shifting other than knowing what the first 2 movies will be.

I'd categorize expectations for these movies like this:
$400m-$600m -- generic DC/Marvel entries
$600m-$800m -- name-brand DC/Marvel entries (Batman, Superman, etc.)
$800m+ -- zeitgeist releases (either through events(!) or overarching story)

The MCU's last two movies have been just at the bottom of acceptable, and Thunderbolts* is starting to drop off a little faster than Cap 4 did, so it's more than understandable that Disney would pull back a little until they can either focus things toward the next big story or find a way to bring budgets down just a touch for these lower expectation movies. These returns wouldn't be questioned so much if Cap 4/Bolts cost $120m each, like Venom 3 or Kraven.

The idea that this is necessary because it happened once is what needs to go out the window, I think. There should be no expectations of some grand plan just to get you to go see one movie.

Have some cameos, have some intersection, but planning some giant event 10 years from now or more, just stop. Go back to making standalone superhero movies with some continuity and some surprises.

 

[DKampy]

Maybe it is. I don't see Avatar 3 doing anywhere close to the first 2. Of course the first wa a phenom and the second burned too many people. Of course still likely to pass 400 but it's got it's own fatigue that the studio is fine with.

People said the same about the 1st Avatar…. But the 2nd Avatar when on to do even better… which I don’t think you get to near 3 billion without multiple viewings… plus I don’t recall people being burned… I heard the opposite that the 2nd was surprising more enjoyable then the first

Wicked 2 is also a safe bet.

Yes… I agree on Wicked… I forgot about that
I started with movies I thought would hit a billion this year and work from that…. Which has been Stitch, Avatar, maybe Zootopia…. And I don’t think the later will hit 400 domestically

 

[Disney Irish]

re: comic book movies -- fatigue, etc.

Even though I don't often share mainstream tastes, I think the movie-going public is pretty aware of the overarching meta of these various franchises. The halcyon days of the MCU are mostly due to the belief that it was all leading to something as a cohesive whole and that that endpoint was going to have a payoff, so all of those movies had inflated performance compared to what a disconnected movie starring the same characters would have had. Likewise, today, people know that there isn't a coherent larger story driving things and are opting out of most of the movies, catching up on whatever interests them on streaming as time allows. If Disney can recapture that sense of direction (or alternatively have each movie contain a can't-miss event -- 3 Spider-Men in 1 movie! Deadpool *and* Wolverine together at last!) then they'll regain plenty of the zeitgeist/event viewers.

For DC, you can't really point at the last handful of movies as representing any real trend. Regardless of the quality of any of the individual movies, everyone knew that they were the last, sad spasms of a connected universe that had had the rug pulled out from under it. There is no world in which movies like that will do well in today's market because (see above) there's largely a misguided sense that superhero movies need to "matter" to a larger story in order to get a large audience. Similarly, people know that the new Superman movie is the start of something new, though it remains to be seen what exactly that something will be. Gunn and Safran's plans seem to be ever-shifting other than knowing what the first 2 movies will be.

I'd categorize expectations for these movies like this:
$400m-$600m -- generic DC/Marvel entries
$600m-$800m -- name-brand DC/Marvel entries (Batman, Superman, etc.)
$800m+ -- zeitgeist releases (either through events(!) or overarching story)

The MCU's last two movies have been just at the bottom of acceptable, and Thunderbolts* is starting to drop off a little faster than Cap 4 did, so it's more than understandable that Disney would pull back a little until they can either focus things toward the next big story or find a way to bring budgets down just a touch for these lower expectation movies. These returns wouldn't be questioned so much if Cap 4/Bolts cost $120m each, like Venom 3 or Kraven.

In general I agree, and have said for a long time now that expectations (by the public since we don't know what internal expectations are) on these films needs to be reset. I would even say drop your range by $50M on either side in each category to be more realistic. Because $350M used to be the floor for many of these movies up until recently when expectations got out of whack by event films hitting $1B.

 

[celluloid]

People said the same about the 1st Avatar…. But the 2nd Avatar when on to do even better… which I don’t think you get to near 3 billion without multiple viewings… plus I don’t recall people being burned… I heard the opposite that the 2nd was surprising more enjoyable then the first

Yes… I agree on Wicked… I forgot about that
I started with movies I thought would hit a billion this year and work from that…. Which has been Stitch, Avatar, maybe Zootopia…. And I don’t think the later will hit 400 domestically

Wait. Avatar 2 did better? I did not think so by many millions.
But the point remains, none of the of the ones that get close or surpass 400 million, will be Superhero films or primarily action based.


Even in our predictions of multiple films no one is saying it's superhero films, whuch a few years ago still could. With this year it could get close.(Superman I think has the best chance due to origin story and dog. Fantastic four is possible but not likely) If it can happen with multiple films a year, I don't think it is rare Where the 200 million superhero mega budgets should not.


But all this to not bail on the on the fact that Horror and Family are the ones near the top of the list of their stature.

 

[Disney Irish]

But the point remains, none of the of the ones that get close or surpass 400 million, will be Superhero films or primarily action based.


Even in our predictions of multiple films no one is saying it's superhero films, whuch a few years ago still could. With this year it could get close.(Superman I think has the best chance due to origin story and dog. Fantastic four is possible but not likely) If it can happen with multiple films a year, I don't think it is rare Where the 200 million superhero mega budgets should not.


But all this to not bail on the on the fact that Horror and Family are the ones near the top of the list of their stature.

I'm going to ask you a question, because you put this $400M domestic mark as some threshold. Do you think that any horror film can ever hit that mark? I mean we know that family films can. But do you really think a horror film can ever hit that mark? Is there any genre outside of horror that you believe can't also hit that mark?