Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[LSLS]

Grain of salt…for sure.

But fantastic four is always a tough sell anyway. I compared it to “the muppets of marvel”…and I’ll stick to it

That's actually probably a great comparison. I love the Muppets stuff, but it always seems to just not connect with the general audience. I think that's the case with F4 as well. As someone who is not a comic person, that might be the only cartoon/movie series of a comic that I never cared about. I'd watch the animated Batman and Spiderman and X-Men as a kid, and it's why I saw a lot of their movies. I never got into F4, and never was remotely interested in their movies (this one is kind of the same at this point, though I'm more into Marvel so I might go see it in theaters if I have enough down time).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That's actually probably a great comparison. I love the Muppets stuff, but it always seems to just not connect with the general audience. I think that's the case with F4 as well. As someone who is not a comic person, that might be the only cartoon/movie series of a comic that I never cared about. I'd watch the animated Batman and Spiderman and X-Men as a kid, and it's why I saw a lot of their movies. I never got into F4, and never was remotely interested in their movies (this one is kind of the same at this point, though I'm more into Marvel so I might go see it in theaters if I have enough down time).

The reason I make that comp is they both have had a very niche, but diehard fandom
That want the material and also want it to be “protected”…but lacks widespread mass appeal

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just my take…but the problem with all comic movies now is they’re worried about “genre” too much and not written from the perspective that the actors are shown to believe the trouble they’re in…

It’s the fail of most movies now…trying for a “take” and not just basics of story.

Star Wars suffered from that too…case in point…andor is the first new material in years where the characters seem to believe it’s “their life” they’re in…not all cgi nonsense and cheeky jokes.

Superman looks like a fail there. Fantastic four too…frankly

 

[Tha Realest]

First off, I love almost everything I’ve seen of FF: First Steps. I love the 1960’s futurism aesthetic of it all. Love the soundtrack. Love the cast. Don’t care about comic-accurate Silver Surfer, and the actress is phenomenal. The moment the “Art of FF:FS” and vinyl soundtrack are available, I’m buying them sight unseen.

All that said, I don’t know that the Marvel brand lifts this one like it would’ve in the mid-2010’s. If anything, it may be an albatross. Unless RDJr makes an appearance in the marketing, I don’t know how well this one does. I think headwinds of recent MCU struggles and a crowded summer calendar makes this a tough go.

Adjusted for inflation, the original FF film got $550M worldwide. Does this clear that? I think so?…but not confident.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

First off, I love almost everything I’ve seen of FF: First Steps. I love the 1960’s futurism aesthetic of it all. Love the soundtrack. Love the cast. Don’t care about comic-accurate Silver Surfer, and the actress is phenomenal. The moment the “Art of FF:FS” and vinyl soundtrack are available, I’m buying them sight unseen.

All that said, I don’t know that the Marvel brand lifts this one like it would’ve in the mid-2010’s. If anything, it may be an albatross. Unless RDJr makes an appearance in the marketing, I don’t know how well this one does. I think headwinds of recent MCU struggles and a crowded summer calendar makes this a tough go.

Adjusted for inflation, the original FF film got $550M worldwide. Does this clear that? I think so?…but not confident.

I think they’re going for a kinda guardians sorta spin with it…but as you correctly point out - this is a different time and place than then

It reminds me of a live action incredibles…is that a draw? I don’t know to be honest

 

[Disney Irish]

Blumhouse has rarely had a flop.

To bring this back to this point you made, I had to go back and check because I thought there was more than Exorcist in the last couple years, Blumhouse has had 3 straight flops this year alone.

Wolf Man (which you mentioned)
The Woman in the Yard
Drop

Add to those Afraid, Imaginary, and Nightswim from last year which either flopped or under performed and Blumhouse is not as invincible as you made it seem. Basically in the last 2-3 years the only real "hit" they've had is Freddy, and then to a lesser extent Megan and Insidious 5, everything else has flopped or under performed. They are hit or miss too just like many studios, and really meany chinks in that armor are starting to show.

 

[celluloid]

To bring this back to this point you made, I had to go back and check because I thought there was more than Exorcist in the last couple years, Blumhouse has had 3 straight flops this year alone.

Wolf Man (which you mentioned)
The Woman in the Yard
Drop

Add to those Afraid, Imaginary, and Nightswim from last year which either flopped or under performed and Blumhouse is not as invincible as you made it seem. Basically in the last 2-3 years the only real "hit" they've had is Freddy, and then to a lesser extent Megan and Insidious 5, everything else has flopped or under performed. They are hit or miss too just like many studios, and really meany chinks in that armor are starting to show.

Yep. We stated that. Notice I said recently.
I also never claimed Blum never had a flop. Just that buy and large until recently the guy had a magic touch with conservative budgets and high concept success.

But also, objectively the point and one you denied.

The top performing movies at the box office are family and horror.

So this era, that is what is audiences are trending too. It's not a three marvel releases performing stellar a year anymore.

We know you hate this because your love of Marvel, and like Westerns plus their recognizability, it is fine bcause they are nkt going anywhere far.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yep. We stated that. Notice I said recently.
I also never claimed Blum never had a flop. Just that buy and large until recently the guy had a magic touch with conservative budgets and high concept success.

But also, objectively the point and one you denied.

The top performing movies at the box office are family and horror.

So this era, that is what is audiences are trending too. It's not a three marvel releases performing stellar a year anymore.

We know you hate this because your love of Marvel, and like Westerns plus their recognizability, it is fine bcause they are nkt going anywhere far.

I believe you have misunderstood where I'm coming from. Sure I love Marvel, just like I love all Disney stuff. But I don't hate that any particular genre is having its time in the sun so to speak. So me bringing up that horror is starting to show signs of fatigue is not trying to hate on horror, its just being realistic to the marketplace. Just like I can be honest and say that even the MCU and superhero genre has had its fatigue too (even if I think its impact has been overblown a bit by many). So if we're being honest about the current state of the marketplace then we have to acknowledge that horror (and even to a minor extent even family films) are starting to show fatigue as audiences aren't eating it up like they were. As the saying goes, too much of a good thing is not actually good, variety is the key.

 

[celluloid]

I believe you have misunderstood where I'm coming from. Sure I love Marvel, just like I love all Disney stuff. But I don't hate that any particular genre is having its time in the sun so to speak. So me bringing up that horror is starting to show signs of fatigue is not trying to hate on horror, its just being realistic to the marketplace. Just like I can be honest and say that even the MCU and superhero genre has had its fatigue too (even if I think its impact has been overblown a bit by many). So if we're being honest about the current state of the marketplace then we have to acknowledge that horror (and even to a minor extent even family films) are starting to show fatigue as audiences aren't eating it up like they were. As the saying goes, too much of a good thing is not actually good, variety is the key.

As a genre it would be foolishness to say horror is showing fatigue.

The top performers of the box office this year has examples of this with commercial and critical success.


As a whole Family and Horror is the current flavor of commercial and critical, and action is having difficulties. No opinion necessary

 

[Disney Irish]

As a genre it would be foolishness to say horror is showing fatigue.

The top performers of the box office this year has multiple examples of this with commercial and critical success.

There have been 23 or so releases in 2025 for horror so far. There have only been 2 actually that performed well, the rest flopped or under performed. So I wouldn't call that "multiple examples" of success, I'd call that fatigue.

Domestic Box Office Performance for Horror Movies in 2025

Domestic Box Office Performance for Horror Movies in 2025

www.the-numbers.com

That doesn't even bring up that in just the next 3 months there are something like 10 more being released to the market, including 28 years later and Megan 2.0 just this month.

I get that you're a fan of horror, but you have to admit that its overexposed and starting to show signs of fatigue. If you can't then I think you are blinded by your love of horror rather than being realistic of the current state of the market.

 

[celluloid]

There have been 23 or so releases in 2025 for horror so far. There have only been 2 actually that performed well, the rest flopped or under performed. So I wouldn't call that "multiple examples" of success, I'd call that fatigue.

Domestic Box Office Performance for Horror Movies in 2025

Domestic Box Office Performance for Horror Movies in 2025

www.the-numbers.com

That doesn't even bring up that in just the next 3 months there are something like 10 more being released to the market, including 28 years later and Megan 2.0 just this month.

I get that you're a fan of horror, but you have to admit that its overexposed and starting to show signs of fatigue. If you can't then I think you are blinded by your love of horror rather than being realistic of the current state of the market.

Fatigue would mean that the genre could not have two smash hits in the last month alone. Both Sinners and Bloodlines overperformed and largely overlapped.

Marvel even spread out had neither of theirs break anywhere near what they were. Both underperformed as are the action genre films.
Again, objectively this happened.

 

[Disney Irish]

Fatigue would mean that the genre could not have two smash hits in the last month alone. Both Sinners and Bloodlines overperformed and largely overlapped.

Again, objectively this happened.

That is not objective, that is subjective as in your opinion. Because fatigue isn't defined by being able to some successes, its defined by the amount of successes compared to failures. And when you have over 90% of a genres releases flopping or underperforming that is a sign of fatigue.

 

[celluloid]

That is not objective, that is subjective as in your opinion. Because fatigue isn't defined by being able to some successes, its defined by the amount of successes compared to failures. And when you have over 90% of a genres releases flopping or underperforming that is a sign of fatigue.

Ok.

Well thus far the top performers this year are objectively Horror and Family. And the lowest are action and superhero.

There are hundreds of outliers, but look at the top.

Many failures does not equal fatigue. Audiences not seeing value in anything the genre puts out regardless of quality can.

 

[brideck]

There have been 23 or so releases in 2025 for horror so far. There have only been 2 actually that performed well, the rest flopped or under performed. So I wouldn't call that "multiple examples" of success, I'd call that fatigue.

I think this is overstating things a bit. Using the agreed upon formula (which I know doesn't necessarily hold up for smaller budgeted films), only 14 movies have made it to profitability at the box office so far in 2025, and 8 of them are horror or horror-adjacent.

Sinners, Final Destination: Bloodlines, The Monkey, Clown in a Cornfield, and Presence all had especially solid returns on their investment. Companion, Until Dawn, and Drop all did a touch better than breakeven.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well thus far the top performers this year are objectively Horror and Family. And the lowest are action and superhero.

There are hundreds of outliers, but look at the top.

Are we talking WW, because horror doesn't break the top 5 -

 

[celluloid]

Are we talking WW, because horror doesn't break the top 5 -

View attachment 862189

Different subject and horror never will because many countries have superstitions on the Paranormal...and some enough to have bans.

Does not chamgee the taste for performance.

You are shifting points again.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think this is overstating things a bit. Using the agreed upon formula (which I know doesn't necessarily hold up for smaller budgeted films), only 14 movies have made it to profitability at the box office so far in 2025, and 8 of them are horror or horror-adjacent.

Sinners, Final Destination: Bloodlines, The Monkey, Clown in a Cornfield, and Presence all had especially solid returns on their investment. Companion, Until Dawn, and Drop all did a touch better than breakeven.

As you said the formula doesn't hold for smaller budget films as they typically spend over 100% for marketing, so you can't use the normal 2.5x, I usually use 3-4x just to account for the 100%+ marketing. So most of those outside of Sinners and Bloodlines flopped or under performed.

 

[Disney Irish]

Different subject and horror never will because many countries have superstitions on the Paranormal...and some enough to have bans.

Does not cha ge the performance.

You are shifting points again.

I'm not shifting, I'm just trying to understand where you're coming from. Because WW box office is usually how we track things in this thread. So if horror doesn't perform well outside of domestic, then I wouldn't really call that top performers, objectively.

I don't think you're really being objective here, rather you're trying to defend horror tooth and claw. And I get it where you are because you love it. But we should be objective here and look at the actual data rather than opinion. So that is why I'm providing the actual charts rather than just opinion.

 

[celluloid]

Final Destination: Bloodlines is the sixth film in a series over two decades old rocked the box office critically and commercially for its genre. It was up against the best original story of the decade, both horror based.

If fatigue was here for Horror, that would not happen.

There are more releases for horror theatrically than there has been in a long time. Failures are still possible and will happen but the amount of failures is not the same as audience fatigue.
it just means more are trying to be with the trend.

Family and horror have been the best business for box office audience tasteshis year thus far.

Not sure why you think I am defending horror when I am just as much saying family films have hits too.

 

[Disney Irish]

Final Destination: Bloodlines is the sixth film in a series over two decades old rocked the box office critically and commercially for its genre. It was up against the best original story of the decade, both horror based.

If fatigue was here for Horror, that would not happen.

There are more releases for horror theatrically than there has been in a long time. Failures are still possible and will happen but the amount of failures is not the same as audience fatigue.
it just means more are trying to be with the trend.

Family and horror habe been the best business for box office audience tasteshis year thus far.

Honestly, I mean this with all respect, you're sounding like I was about 3-4 years ago when talking about the MCU. It took me a bit of time but I got to the point of accepting that there was fatigue, maybe someday you'll get there too with horror.

Also as another poster pointed out Sinners is the "best original story" domestic only. It'll never catch Elemental worldwide. And I would also put A Quiet Place ahead of it as "best original story" in the last decade, if I'm being honest.