Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

I'm going to ask you a question, because you put this $400M domestic mark as some threshold. Do you think that any horror film can ever hit that mark? I mean we know that family films can. But do you really think a horror film can ever hit that mark? Is there any genre outside of horror that you believe can't also hit that mark?

Not a threshold. Expectation of what those films were doing on nearing consistently up until two years ago and lower now.

To your question:
Heck not likely often. For many reasons and variables. I was discussing what big summer releases were. But for horrors previous gauge of success it is really healthy this year.

For horror as a genre in broad strokes, they do best when source material is legendary or well bent. We discussed this earlier. Terminator, Alien, Jurassic Park, Sinners, It, Jaws...etc.

Don't forget that Jaws was the original Summer Blockbuster.

Going forward, I would never say never.

Horror does not often get those, but also, in the same sense, it is why you rarely in comparison to investment of it with a budget of 100 million or more.

 

[Disney Irish]

Not a threshold. Expectation of what those films were doing on nearing consistently up until two years ago and lower now.

To your question:
Heck not likely often. For many reasons and variables. I was discussing what big summer releases were. But for horrors previous gage of success it is really healthy this year.

For horror as a genre in broad strokes, they do best when source material is legendary or well bent. We discussed this earlier. Terminator, Alien, Sinners, It, Jaws.

Don't forget that Jaws was the original Summer Blockbuster.

Going forward, I would never say never.

Horror does not often get those, but also, in the same sense, it is why you rarely in comparison to investment of it with a budget of 100 million or more.

Ok, so then lets expand upon that. As you say its an expectation for this $400M domestic, in this case for specific genres such as superhero movies. But where is this expectation of a $400M movie coming from? Because as I mentioned previously very few films in general let alone superhero films have actually hit that mark and none were doing it consistently, so I don't know if there really is that the expectation outside of maybe yourself.

So then is it possible this expectation that you have for a movie hitting $400M domestic just a bit unrealistic? I ask this seriously because I've certainly never heard anybody in the industry use that mark as an expectation, WW numbers yes, but never domestic alone.

 

[celluloid]

Ok, so then lets expand upon that. As you say its an expectation for this $400M domestic. But where is this expectation of a $400M movie coming from? Because as I mentioned very few films in general let alone superhero films have actually hit that mark, so I don't know if there really is that the expectation is outside of maybe yourself.

So then is it possible this expectation that you have for a movie hitting $400M domestic just a bit unrealistic? I ask this seriously because I've certainly never heard anybody in the industry use that mark as an expectation, WW numbers yes, but never domestic alone.

You will find that if you change it to 300 million, the point remains.


Studios have various expectations.


We are talking about what audiences are going to see against the budgets. Top performers, which makes trends the studio's seek.


Films are still getting this income against lesser budgets, so it is not unrealistic by any measure.

 

[Disney Irish]

You will find that if you change it to 300 million, the point remains.


Studios have various expectations.


We are talking about what audiences are going to see against the budgets. Top performers, which makes trends the studio's seek.


Films are still getting this income against lesser budgets, so it is not unrealistic bay any measure.

I think $300M domestic actually changes the conversation. Because when you change the number and look at the lists, it actually more than doubles the number of films that can hit that mark. Going from only 52 movies to over 110 movies. So that is a more realistic expectation here domestically, and one that I think many studios do strive to hit. But $400M domestic is unrealistic as an expectation. And for funsies if you expand it to $250M that brings the total number movies up to over 158. Again a more realistic expectation especially in the post-pandemic era.

Anyways, audiences don't care about the budget of a film, most don't know what they are anyways. And they certainly don't care what a studio expects to make compared to that budget. So it doesn't matter other than for these discussions we have here on our silly forums with the dozen or so people what a film costs compared to how much it makes.

 

[celluloid]

Disney will make less Marvel 200 million budget films making under 300 when they can produce more lilo and stitch for 90 million that makes over 300 Million.

Again,not saying it can't change in the future or that Superhero films are going away, but they will pump those breaks a bit to reinvent.


Audiences may not care about numbers when it's not theirs, but they speak with their wallets.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney will make less Marvel 200 million budget films making under 300 when they can produce more lilo and stitch for 90 million that makes over 300 Million.

Again,not saying it can't change in the future or that Superhero films are going away, but they will pump those breaks a bit to reinvent.


Audiences may not care about numbers when its, but they speak with their wallets.

Just curious why the focus on only domestic? Why not look at the worldwide numbers, as is traditionally the case? I mean studios do look at that so why discount that in this discussion?

 

[celluloid]

Just curious why the focus on only domestic? Why not look at the worldwide numbers, as is traditionally the case? I mean studios do look at that so why discount that in this discussion?

You can do that too. But it's far more unstable, and really changing the trend, so simplicity is the answer.

Family films and even horror with it's overseas limitations are performing on a rise for the better these past few years than before.

 

[Disney Irish]

You can do that too. But it's far more unstable, and really changing the trend, so simplicity is the answer.

Family films and even horror with it's overseas limitations are performing on a rise for the better these past few years than before.

Fair enough, and I understand your desire to keep it domestic especially in relation to horror.

But just to be fair studios don't just look at domestic for "trends", as the saying goes follow the money. So international is where huge sums of money is made, so they look at the global box office for trends.

 

[celluloid]

Fair enough, and I understand your desire to keep it domestic especially in relation to horror.

But just to be fair studios don't just look at domestic for "trends", as the saying goes follow the money. So international is where huge sums of money is made, so they look at the global box office for trends.

You can do that too and see the growth in international too. You can use the most recent example as just one. Every Final Destination film has grown in international box office, particularly the last two show this with a larger increase.

Studios are seeing that fatigue fir superhero and action internationally too.

 

[Disney Irish]

You can do that too and see the growth in international too. You can use the most recent example as just one. Every Final Destination film has grown in international box office, particularly the last two show this with a larger increase.

It depends on if you do it based on inflation adjusted numbers or not. Because if you do, 4 actually has done the best internationally, and I don't think 7 will catch it -

 

[celluloid]

Yeah, inflation will cause everything to vary. Global is more unstable than US.

Withthout getting into the weeds again: Trend is the trend and horror has been a Blockbuster before and could again, not likely of course this year, which not what the point was on. Currently, outside of family films it is the best chaser a studio has and what has gotten people in.

 

[DKampy]

So then is it possible this expectation that you have for a movie hitting $400M domestic just a bit unrealistic? I ask this seriously because I've certainly never heard anybody in the industry use that mark as an expectation, WW numbers yes, but never domestic alone.

Yeah … I don’t get the domestic only expectations… when a film has completely finished its run…. Most usually talk about worldwide totals in gauging whether a film was successful or not

 

[celluloid]

Yeah … I don’t get the domestic only expectations… when a film has completely finished its run…. Most usually talk about worldwide totals in gauging whether a film was successful or not

In that case, it is not neglect but instead, it is rather dire for Superhero films as Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts can't even get to 500 million worldwidewhere we will have multiple family films going towards a billion worldwide and Horror consitently getting over 300 million worldwide.

 

[LittleBuford]

The official trailer is here!



I am so excited!

 

[TP2000]

I think there’s a blowback when we say the word “legs”. Like some prognostication that every movie is going to pull an Elemental or Mufasa and rescue itself from the brink.

I only learned about that phrase from The Numbers site, and I use its definition and daily updated chart that tracks such things.

Like Lilo & Stitch, which for the purposes of this conversation conveniently has entirely average legs. Not weak, at or beneath the shaded area, nor strong like some movies do going way above the shaded area in Weeks 2 through 8, etc.

Of course, now that I've posted that and the explanation they use for it on The Numbers website, I'm sure someone will be along shortly to claim that data is cherry-picked or misrepresented, or fake. Or whatever the new outrage is over Lilo & Stitch performing average at the box office thus far.

Lilo & Stitch (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Lilo & Stitch (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Though I don't doubt you have family and cultural reasons for using it, the English "oof" is a cognate of the Swedish "uff" rather than a derivative of it (it exists in many Germanic languages). It is attested as far back as the eighteenth century.

Oxford English Dictionary

The OED is the definitive record of the English language, featuring 600,000 words, 3 million quotations, and over 1,000 years of English.

www.oed.com

Definition of OOF

—used to express discomfort, surprise, or dismay… See the full definition

www.merriam-webster.com

Fascinating! Who knew?!? And my Aunt Ingrid would have loved to have sat next to you at a dinner party!

 

[TP2000]

There’s also no tool that really captures international due to the staggered release nature. See my sneak edit on Japan above. I won’t commit to 110M…

Underestimate Japanese love of Stitch and Hawaii to your peril.

I agree on the Japan thing. It's really a wild card. The Japanese ladies love that kind of stuff over there!

The only pause I have is when I remember how the Stitch show in Tokyo's Tomorrowland is always a walk-on with a half empty theater.

 

[TP2000]

I don’t have terribly high expectations for Elio, unfortunately. But I think F4 could do reasonably well. There seems to be expectancy there, Thunderbolts on the other hand had very little and at least turned out to be good.

I've been getting constant commercials for it on YouTube the past few days. Last night I stopped and watched the entire 60 second commercial and thought.... "Uh, that looks kind of dumb." It's definitely a movie where the ladies in HR weighed in on the storyboarding process, which never ends well for anyone.

My pop-culture radar is not impressed, and I don't have high hopes for it based off of what I've seen so far.

 

[BrianLo]

I agree on the Japan thing. It's really a wild card. The Japanese ladies love that kind of stuff over there!

The only pause I have is when I remember how the Stitch show in Tokyo's Tomorrowland is always a walk-on with a half empty theater.

I think that represents the quality of the attraction more than the fondness for the IP.

 

[Agent H]

The official trailer is here!



I am so excited!

As someone who has never seen the musical and is still working on the book the music in this one sounds better than the music in the last one. And that’s saying something.