Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Final Destination: Bloodlines is the sixth film in a series over two decades old rocked the box office critically and commercially for its genre. It was up against the best original story of the decade, both horror based.

If fatigue was here for Horror, that would not happen.

There are more releases for horror theatrically than there has been in a long time. Failures are still possible and will happen but the amount of failures is not the same as audience fatigue.
it just means more are trying to be with the trend.

Family and horror habe been the best business for box office audience tasteshis year thus far.

Honestly, I mean this with all respect, you're sounding like I was about 3-4 years ago when talking about the MCU. It took me a bit of time but I got to the point of accepting that there was fatigue, maybe someday you'll get there too with horror.

Also as another poster pointed out Sinners is the "best original story" domestic only. It'll never catch Elemental worldwide. And I would also put A Quiet Place ahead of it as "best original story" in the last decade, if I'm being honest.

 

[celluloid]

Honestly, I mean this with all respect, you're sounding like I was about 3-4 years ago when talking about the MCU. It took me a bit of time but I got to the point of accepting that there was fatigue, maybe someday you'll get there too with horror.

Also as another poster pointed out Sinners is the "best original story" domestic only. It'll never catch Elemental worldwide. And I would also put A Quiet Place ahead of it as "best original story" in the last decade, if I'm being honest.

Yeah. It could go there. but that is not what is being said. It is what is happening right now. Everything gets fatigue. This is why I used the term era to begin with. You are just keeping this going for no reason. And for some reason, defiantly just can't say "good point" or just nothing at all.

Superhero had their era of low risk because of the shoulders, and now Horror and Family films are having the top time now.

I never stated it was invincible. No genre and era is. You are kind of making a passively condescending argument like I am armature.

So far it is a family film and horror year for audiences.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah. It could go there. but that is not what is being said. It is what is happening right now. Everything gets fatigue. This is why I used the term era to begin with. You are just keeping this going for no reason.

Superhero had their era of low risk because of the shoulders, and now Horror and Family films are having the top time now.

I never stated it was invincible. No genre and era is. You are kind of making a passively condescending argument like I am armature.

Fatigue doesn't happen all at once, its a gradual thing. So of course there is going to be still hits here and there. That is the part I think you're missing, as you think it having hits shows there is no fatigue.

So lets just agree to disagree. You think there is no fatigue right now in horror, I think its already started. We'll see how the rest of the 2025 horror slate does, maybe we can come to some better understanding at the end of it.

Also I wasn't trying to be condescending, I was trying to show that I understood where you were coming from because I was in the same place not too long ago.

 

[celluloid]

Fatigue doesn't happen all at once, its a gradual thing. So of course there is going to be still hits here and there. That is the part I think you're missing, as you think it having hits shows there is no fatigue.

So lets just agree to disagree. You think there is no fatigue right now in horror, I think its already started. We'll see how the rest of the 2025 horror slate does, maybe we can come to some better understanding at the end of it.

Also I wasn't trying to be condescending, I was trying to show that I understood where you were coming from because I was in the same place not too long ago.

Yes, you are splitting hairs here. No one ever claimed impervious.

Fatigue could be at the start of horror. That is kind of how it works early on. When many are a hit, many studios and producers chase the trend. That is kind of how success works. You could make a case for when it is at the top it is on its way out. That is not the same as what was said and I think you are smart enough to know this.
When the sixth final destination, a series over 25 years old outperforms most of its predecessors while another horror movie plays at the same time breaks records...

that's not fatigue in effect. It is not in the same part of the life cycle that big budget superhero films are in.

You are not discussing in good faith. You are projecting and predicting, and others are speaking objective facts.

I standby that it is foolish to think that horror and family films are in the same fatigue cycle that superhero and action films are in.


Lilo and Stitch
Minecraft
Final Destination
Sinners

Are of the biggest successes avalible performers to audiences of the year thus far.
Family and horror features are not even close to a latter part of a fatigue cycle when speaking of THIS YEAR

Objectively.

 

[Disney Irish]

Fatigue could be at the start of horror,

I'm happy you can acknowledge that because it seemed like you were hard-pressed to acknowledge that it could be happening.

but when the sixth final destination, a series over 25 years old outperforms most of its predecessors while another horror movie breaks records...

Maybe I didn't acknowledge it and that is why you keep bring this up, so let me clear this right now. I'm beyond THRILLED that Final Destination 6 and especially Sinners has been successful, its a literally boon for the genre and industry as a whole for them to be successful. That was never in question about the performance of those two movies. They did great.

that's not fatigue in effect. It is not in the same part of the life cycle that big budget superhero films are in.

You are not discussing in good faith. You are projecting and predicting, and others are speaking objective facts.

I standby that it is foolish to think that horror and family films are in the same fatigue cycle that superhero and action films are in.

Now who is the one splitting hairs....

I never said horror was in the same spot as superheros are in terms of fatigue. And I certainly never said anything about action films. I briefly mentioned family films in one post, but I don't even think they are anywhere close to being fatigued. All I've been talking about are horror films, that is it. You are lumping all the rest of this together as if I'm trying to say all these genres are the same, and I never did.

So again lets agree to disagree, and just see how the rest of 2025 plays out. Maybe we can revisit this at the end of the year and come to some agreement, or maybe not. Either way lets move on.

 

[celluloid]

Never once did I say anything was impervious.

Since the start.

If it makes you feel like you win to say "being at the top is the start of fatigue" then go for it. And if it seems to you that I felt that way, that any genre wnt face fatigue, when each post said I did not feel that way, I am not sure how else to express it.

And anyone who continues to respond multiple times to claim things that no one said after saying they agree to disagree, can't even agree with themself.

 

[Disney Irish]

Never once did I say anything was impervious.

Since the start.

If it makes you feel like you win to say "being at the top is the start of fatigue" then go for it. And if it seems to you that I felt that way when each post said I did not feel that way, I am not sure how else to express it.

And anyone who continues to respond multiple times to claim things that no one said after saying they agree to disagree, can't even agree with themself.

There is no "winning" or "losing" here, its a discussion nothing more. But thank you for the discussion.

 

[celluloid]

Posting things I did not say, to the point of claiming the opposite is not a discussion.

 

[Disney Irish]

Posting things I did not say, to the point of claiming the opposite is not a discussion.

I'm sorry, maybe you're misinterpreting some of the things I've posted. I'll even acknowledge that its possible I've misinterpreted some of the things you posted when I was responding. So it happens to all of us.

I have no hard feelings here, it was all just a discussion to me just like every other. It appears to me that you are upset, so I apologize if that is the case. I get that you are very passionate about the horror genre, so please don't take any of this personal. Again it was just a discussion.

 

[celluloid]

I'm sorry, maybe you're misinterpreting some of the things I've posted. I'll even acknowledge that its possible I've misinterpreted some of the things you posted when I was responding. So it happens to all of us.

I appreciate this.

 

[DKampy]

To add to the horror fatigue discussion… .there does appear to be some…. This is apparent in Smile 2 results…. That should of been a slam Dunk… a sequel to a word of mouth smash hit… which also had good reviews

Also Sinners and Final Destination may both
Be technically horror…. They went after very different audiences… the later it was all about the kills…while the former was about more then the horror… it attracted people who don’t normally watch horror…. IMO has a good chance to be nominated for an Oscar

 

[celluloid]

To add to the horror fatigue discussion… .there does appear to be some…. This is apparent in Smile 2 results…. That should of been a slam Dunk… a sequel to a word of mouth smash hit… which also had good reviews

Also Sinners and Final Destination may both
Be technically horror…. They went after very different audiences… the later it was all about the kills…while the former was about more then the horror… it attracted people who don’t normally watch horror…. IMO has a good chance to be nominated for an Oscar

Horror sequels almost always have diminishing returns by sequels. So Final Destination 6 at this point is relatively anomaly with such a gap between releases, but a gap honestly probably helped it most. As with many of us here, is what we have said Marvel should have done to let it breathe and not become westerns.

As for genre incorporating:
This is how genres work best.
Terminator to T2
Alien to Aliens.
You can see M3gan doing this same thing with the sequel to avoid the straightforward killer AI sequel.(not sure if it will do better than the first, but it will help it not lose money I imagine if it keeps people's interests more than alienates)


You see Superheroes have been trying to do this for a long while which is why we are further in the cycle of fatigue with them. Dr. Strange and Sony's have certainly attempted the action horror angle. Some with continued success and some without quality. Then the buddy raunchy comedy of course has been done and that helped Deadpool by people who were tired of seeing other superhero films.

Star Wars did this too. Solo was an attempt at a Heist movie, Rogue one was strictly the rebel spy angle stealing plans angle.

Putting a spin on it is nothing new of course.


For box office purposes, it typically is the best counter programing one can have outside of Barbie and Oppenheimer situations.

 

[DKampy]

Horror sequels almost always have diminishing returns by sequels. So Final Destination 6 at this point is relatively anomaly with such a gap between releases, but a gap honestly probably helped it most. As with many of us here, is what we have said Marvel should have done to let it breathe and not become westerns.

As for genre incorporating:
This is how genres work best.
Terminator to T2
Alien to Aliens.
You can see M3gan doing this same thing with the sequel to avoid the straightforward killer AI sequel.(not sure if it will do better than the first, but it will help it not lose money I imagine if it keeps people's interests more than alienates)


You see Superheroes have been trying to do this for a long while which is why we are further in the cycle of fatigue with them. Dr. Strange and Sony's have certainly attempted the action horror angle. Some with continued success and some without quality. Then the buddy raunchy comedy of course has been done and that helped Deadpool by people who were tired of seeing other superhero films.

Star Wars did this too. Solo was an attempt at a Heist movie, Rogue one was strictly the rebel spy angle stealing plans angle.

Putting a spin on it is nothing new of course.


For box office purposes, it typically is the best counter programing one can have outside of Barbie and Oppenheimer situations.

Usually a deline happens because a drop off in quality… as most horror sequels are cash grabs with cheap jump scares. Sequels to buzz worthy horror films such as Scream and The Conjuring kept up with the same profits as their predecessors….But Smile 2 had a significant drop off… even Saw actually became more popular despite the first one being the only good film in the series

 

[celluloid]

Usually a deline happens because a drop off in quality… as most horror sequels are cash grabs with cheap jump scares. Sequels to buzz worthy horror films such as Scream and The Conjuring kept up with the same profits as their predecessors….But Smile 2 had a significant drop off… even Saw actually became more popular despite the first one being the only good film in the series

Definitely no absolutes and not the cult following and growth that the first had, but even it, made profit.

Definitely agree with the first Saw. At least it was seven-esque and like other films the creators were inspired by.

 

[Nevermore525]

I just want Predator: Badlands to do well enough to give another iteration of Alien vs Predator. Already teasing the possibility from the trailer

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

….sooo…about that box office…

 

[DKampy]

Definitely no absolutes and not the cult following and growth that the first had, but even it, made profit.

Yes…that is a plus for Horror and why it will never go away… they can produce it on the cheap… even in Horror’s least popular phases it can still be profitable…Does not mean it was not a disappointment from what was expected

Clown in a Cornfield and Presence was profitable…, but I think they were wanting more… especially the latter with it’s drone ghost POV gimmick

A couple of years ago it felt like horror was your surest bet… that feels like it is no longer the case

If both Superman and Fantastic Four both hit… Are you going to say Comic book movies are back… I think both of those are going to be the top superhero movies of the year… I think it is possible if WOM is good…Supes has already hit Long term tracking…. Right now it is projected at 155-175…also to be clear… I am a non-biased participant in this discussion… I will watch any genre… all I want is good films

 

[Tony the Tigger]

If both Superman and Fantastic Four both hit… Are you going to say Comic book movies are back

People have to stop looking at short term results as trends.

 

[celluloid]

Yes…that is a plus for Horror and why it will never go away… they can produce it on the cheap… even in Horror’s least popular phases it can still be profitable…Does not mean it was not a disappointment from what was expected

Clown in a Cornfield and Presence was profitable…, but I think they were wanting more… especially the latter with it’s drone ghost POV gimmick

A couple of years ago it felt like horror was your surest bet… that feels like it is no longer the case

If both Superman and Fantastic Four both hit…

Define hit. It could help the audience trust and taste cycle upswing.

I don't see them performing better on their investments than the family or horror success there has been in this year so far.
Superman and Fantastic Four have a better chance due to likeability in artists involved and if they are actually heavily enjoyed.

I think Jurassic World, Superman and Fantastic Four are all going to suffer from Fatigue and likely not hit the domestic 400 million plus mark with ease.

It's not about superhero films specificially, they are just the biggest culprit and hardest falling.

 

[brideck]

re: comic book movies -- fatigue, etc.

Even though I don't often share mainstream tastes, I think the movie-going public is pretty aware of the overarching meta of these various franchises. The halcyon days of the MCU are mostly due to the belief that it was all leading to something as a cohesive whole and that that endpoint was going to have a payoff, so all of those movies had inflated performance compared to what a disconnected movie starring the same characters would have had. Likewise, today, people know that there isn't a coherent larger story driving things and are opting out of most of the movies, catching up on whatever interests them on streaming as time allows. If Disney can recapture that sense of direction (or alternatively have each movie contain a can't-miss event -- 3 Spider-Men in 1 movie! Deadpool *and* Wolverine together at last!) then they'll regain plenty of the zeitgeist/event viewers.

For DC, you can't really point at the last handful of movies as representing any real trend. Regardless of the quality of any of the individual movies, everyone knew that they were the last, sad spasms of a connected universe that had had the rug pulled out from under it. There is no world in which movies like that will do well in today's market because (see above) there's largely a misguided sense that superhero movies need to "matter" to a larger story in order to get a large audience. Similarly, people know that the new Superman movie is the start of something new, though it remains to be seen what exactly that something will be. Gunn and Safran's plans seem to be ever-shifting other than knowing what the first 2 movies will be.

I'd categorize expectations for these movies like this:
$400m-$600m -- generic DC/Marvel entries
$600m-$800m -- name-brand DC/Marvel entries (Batman, Superman, etc.)
$800m+ -- zeitgeist releases (either through events(!) or overarching story)

The MCU's last two movies have been just at the bottom of acceptable, and Thunderbolts* is starting to drop off a little faster than Cap 4 did, so it's more than understandable that Disney would pull back a little until they can either focus things toward the next big story or find a way to bring budgets down just a touch for these lower expectation movies. These returns wouldn't be questioned so much if Cap 4/Bolts cost $120m each, like Venom 3 or Kraven.