Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

In the sake of fairness, break even would be more like 560.

It’ll be one to watch closely. If it doesn’t land then I think we’ve reached the clear end of theatrical DCEU. I guess another crack at Batman?

Marvel has room to fall still. There’s still going to be demand for Spiderman, Deadpool, RDJ and the OG Avengers and maybe some iteration of X Men.

To be fair to Gunn, while I don't like what he appears to be doing with Superman, this isn't the DCEU. That ended in 2023 with Aquaman 2. This is a reboot, now called just the DC Universe, or DCU, an even more obvious copy of the MCU, is starting with Superman and continuing with Supergirl next year..

The Batman is getting a sequel with Matt Reeves still writing/directing and Pattinson reprising his role as the Dark Knight, set to release in 2027. It is not officially part of the DCU, rather its its own universe.

But I believe you're right, the MCU has a lot more room to fall or continue to rise as the case maybe. They have been and continue to be in a better place than DC.

 

[celluloid]

And MCU or DCU, neither are helping each other when they don't have big standouts but nearby releases.

It is like if Blumhouse and A24 just started making only mid to low commercial budget horror that could not profit in theaters.

They would both hurt each other.

 

[Disney Irish]

And MCU or DCU, neither are helping each other when they don't have big standouts but nearby releases.

It is like if Blumhouse and A24 just started making only mid to low commercial budget horror that could not profit in theaters.

They would both hurt each other.

I think the difference there is that Blumhouse, A24, and I'll even throw Neon in there, never have had an expectation to make profit during theatrical, because traditionally their movies don't actually turn a profit during theatrical. Whereas Disney and WBD have traditionally expected profit during theatrical with the MCU and DCU, albeit likely have changed that expectation post-pandemic as has been discussed here.

 

[celluloid]

I think the difference there is that Blumhouse, A24, and I'll even throw Neon in there, never have had an expectation to make profit during theatrical, because traditionally their movies don't actually turn a profit during theatrical. Whereas Disney and WBD have traditionally expected profit during theatrical with the MCU and DCU, albeit likely have changed that expectation post-pandemic as has been discussed here.

Blumhouse has rarely had a flop. Blumhouse came out of the gate due to its founder's business sense on one of the biggest profit Margins of all time.
(Paranormal Activity)
Since then Blumhouse somehow has a magic touch of high concept that interests people enough to check it out with conservative delegated budget, even marketing.

Blumhouse's flop theatrical are more recent ones in the A24/neon world.

More to the point, regardless of their goals, the saturation of mediocrity hurts audience's trust.

 

[Disney Irish]

Blumhouse has rarely had a flop. Blumhouse came out of the gate due to its founder's business sense on one of the biggest profit Margins of all time.
(Paranormal Activity)
Since then Blumhouse somehow has a magic touch of high concept that interests people enough to check it out with conservative delegated budget, even marketing.

If you haven't noticed horror is starting to become the next genre that is getting over-saturated and thus audiences are starting to get fatigued by it. So Blumhouse better branch out to other genres (right now they are a one trick pony, they should get back to their roots of doing diverse films) or they'll end up in the same boat as other genres that got overexposed like superheros.

Also just because they haven't had a flop recently doesn't mean they aren't due. If you go back to the mid-2010s they had a string of them, so they do have a record of flops even on the lower budget fare.

 

[celluloid]

If you haven't noticed horror is starting to become the next genre that is getting over-saturated and thus audiences are starting to get fatigued by it. So Blumhouse better branch out to other genres (right now they are a one trick pony, they should get back to their roots of doing diverse films) or they'll end up in the same boat as other genres that got overexposed like superheros.

Also just because they haven't had a flop recently doesn't mean they aren't due. If you go back to the mid-2010s they had a string of them, so they do have a record of flops even on the lower budget fare.

That branches from the point made into a different discussion.

I disagree with though. There are also objective facts that completely go against your thought. Sinners, this year's horror movie, not just the highest grossing horror movie in decades but also the highest grossing original story film of the decade. Wolfman totally flopped, Imaginary was meh, they have had flops recently.

M3gan 2.0, Black Phone, Five Nights all have films this year. All genre of horror but in subgenre very different ways. They diverse enough and are doing just fine and will have a strong year.

Family movies and horror are clearly king in this era.

 

[Disney Irish]

That branches from the point made into a different discussion.

I disagree with though. There are also objective facts that completely go against your thought. Sinners, this year's horror movie, not just the highest grossing horror movie in decades but also the highest grossing original story film of the decade. Wolfman totally flopped, Imaginary was meh, they have had flops recently.

M3gan 2.0, Black Phone, Five Nights all have films this year. All genre of horror but in subgenre very different ways. They diverse enough and are doing just fine and will have a strong year.

Family movies and horror are clearly king in this era.

We’ll see how those perform, of the 3 I think Black Phone 2 may flop.

The point I was trying to make is with over-saturation happening in horror its going to cause the same problems as every other genre that got over-saturated in the past, such as the superhero genre. Horror went through this same problem already in the 80s and early 90s. It’s a cycle, and I think we’ve hit its current peak, similar to others saying superhero’s peak was in 2018/2019. Just because there are examples of successes doesn’t mean it’s all sunshine and roses for the genre, you mentioned a few that haven’t been successful, so the dents in the armor is starting to show. As far as sub-genres, you can say that about every genre as they all have sub-genres that makes them all a bit different, doesn’t mean the general public sees that difference in any meaningful way.

To bring this back to Blumhouse on their recent films, Exorcist was considered a critical and audience flop even if it cleared its budget. So yeah it’s not all roses for them either.

 

[celluloid]

We’ll see how those perform, of the 3 I think Black Phone 2 may flop.

The point I was trying to make is with over-saturation happening in horror its going to cause the same problems as every other genre that got over-saturated in the past, such as the superhero genre. Horror went through this same problem already in the 80s and early 90s. It’s a cycle, and I think we’ve hit its current peak, similar to others saying superhero’s peak was in 2018/2019. Just because there are examples of successes doesn’t mean it’s all sunshine and roses for the genre, you mentioned a few that haven’t been successful, so the dents in the armor is starting to show. As far as sub-genres, you can say that about every genre as they all have sub-genres that makes them all a bit different, doesn’t mean the general public sees that difference in any meaningful way.

To bring this back to Blumhouse on their recent films, Exorcist was considered a critical and audience flop even if it cleared its budget. So yeah it’s not all roses for them either.

That was a long way to agree with exactly what I stated here.

And MCU or DCU, neither are helping each other when they don't have big standouts but nearby releases.

It is like if Blumhouse and A24 just started making only mid to low commercial budget horror that could not profit in theaters.

They would both hurt each other.

Which never said it could not have a flop to the genre, and then you went on some other argument that did not exist.

So if you see it happening, then you agree, but had to act like I said Blumhouse or the genre never has a flop?

 

[Disney Irish]

That was a long way to agree with exactly what I stated here.

In a way I guess yeah I'm agreeing with you a bit. Your original point was about the MCU/DCU hurting each other. And I'm saying that I see horror heading that way too due to its over-saturation. And honestly heading that way fast, in my opinion, because it seems every major studio right now is trying to pump out some type of horror film left and right.

then you went on some other argument that did not exist.

Its a discussion not an argument, and I'm discussing, I was expanding upon a point you made and including additional opinions to the topic by providing additional context.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

It’ll be one to watch closely. If it doesn’t land then I think we’ve reached the clear end of theatrical DCEU. I guess another crack at Batman?

We still have The Batman 2 before they try another reboot.

 

[Nevermore525]

I disagree with though. There are also objective facts that completely go against your thought. Sinners, this year's horror movie, not just the highest grossing horror movie in decades but also the highest grossing original story film of the decade.

If we’re just counting the 2020s, Sinners is the highest grossing original film domestically of the decade, not globally.

Elemental thus far would be the highest grossing original film globally.

 

[LSLS]

Grain of salt…for sure.

But fantastic four is always a tough sell anyway. I compared it to “the muppets of marvel”…and I’ll stick to it

That's actually probably a great comparison. I love the Muppets stuff, but it always seems to just not connect with the general audience. I think that's the case with F4 as well. As someone who is not a comic person, that might be the only cartoon/movie series of a comic that I never cared about. I'd watch the animated Batman and Spiderman and X-Men as a kid, and it's why I saw a lot of their movies. I never got into F4, and never was remotely interested in their movies (this one is kind of the same at this point, though I'm more into Marvel so I might go see it in theaters if I have enough down time).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That's actually probably a great comparison. I love the Muppets stuff, but it always seems to just not connect with the general audience. I think that's the case with F4 as well. As someone who is not a comic person, that might be the only cartoon/movie series of a comic that I never cared about. I'd watch the animated Batman and Spiderman and X-Men as a kid, and it's why I saw a lot of their movies. I never got into F4, and never was remotely interested in their movies (this one is kind of the same at this point, though I'm more into Marvel so I might go see it in theaters if I have enough down time).

The reason I make that comp is they both have had a very niche, but diehard fandom
That want the material and also want it to be “protected”…but lacks widespread mass appeal

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just my take…but the problem with all comic movies now is they’re worried about “genre” too much and not written from the perspective that the actors are shown to believe the trouble they’re in…

It’s the fail of most movies now…trying for a “take” and not just basics of story.

Star Wars suffered from that too…case in point…andor is the first new material in years where the characters seem to believe it’s “their life” they’re in…not all cgi nonsense and cheeky jokes.

Superman looks like a fail there. Fantastic four too…frankly

 

[Tha Realest]

First off, I love almost everything I’ve seen of FF: First Steps. I love the 1960’s futurism aesthetic of it all. Love the soundtrack. Love the cast. Don’t care about comic-accurate Silver Surfer, and the actress is phenomenal. The moment the “Art of FF:FS” and vinyl soundtrack are available, I’m buying them sight unseen.

All that said, I don’t know that the Marvel brand lifts this one like it would’ve in the mid-2010’s. If anything, it may be an albatross. Unless RDJr makes an appearance in the marketing, I don’t know how well this one does. I think headwinds of recent MCU struggles and a crowded summer calendar makes this a tough go.

Adjusted for inflation, the original FF film got $550M worldwide. Does this clear that? I think so?…but not confident.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

First off, I love almost everything I’ve seen of FF: First Steps. I love the 1960’s futurism aesthetic of it all. Love the soundtrack. Love the cast. Don’t care about comic-accurate Silver Surfer, and the actress is phenomenal. The moment the “Art of FF:FS” and vinyl soundtrack are available, I’m buying them sight unseen.

All that said, I don’t know that the Marvel brand lifts this one like it would’ve in the mid-2010’s. If anything, it may be an albatross. Unless RDJr makes an appearance in the marketing, I don’t know how well this one does. I think headwinds of recent MCU struggles and a crowded summer calendar makes this a tough go.

Adjusted for inflation, the original FF film got $550M worldwide. Does this clear that? I think so?…but not confident.

I think they’re going for a kinda guardians sorta spin with it…but as you correctly point out - this is a different time and place than then

It reminds me of a live action incredibles…is that a draw? I don’t know to be honest

 

[Disney Irish]

Blumhouse has rarely had a flop.

To bring this back to this point you made, I had to go back and check because I thought there was more than Exorcist in the last couple years, Blumhouse has had 3 straight flops this year alone.

Wolf Man (which you mentioned)
The Woman in the Yard
Drop

Add to those Afraid, Imaginary, and Nightswim from last year which either flopped or under performed and Blumhouse is not as invincible as you made it seem. Basically in the last 2-3 years the only real "hit" they've had is Freddy, and then to a lesser extent Megan and Insidious 5, everything else has flopped or under performed. They are hit or miss too just like many studios, and really meany chinks in that armor are starting to show.

 

[celluloid]

To bring this back to this point you made, I had to go back and check because I thought there was more than Exorcist in the last couple years, Blumhouse has had 3 straight flops this year alone.

Wolf Man (which you mentioned)
The Woman in the Yard
Drop

Add to those Afraid, Imaginary, and Nightswim from last year which either flopped or under performed and Blumhouse is not as invincible as you made it seem. Basically in the last 2-3 years the only real "hit" they've had is Freddy, and then to a lesser extent Megan and Insidious 5, everything else has flopped or under performed. They are hit or miss too just like many studios, and really meany chinks in that armor are starting to show.

Yep. We stated that. Notice I said recently.
I also never claimed Blum never had a flop. Just that buy and large until recently the guy had a magic touch with conservative budgets and high concept success.

But also, objectively the point and one you denied.

The top performing movies at the box office are family and horror.

So this era, that is what is audiences are trending too. It's not a three marvel releases performing stellar a year anymore.

We know you hate this because your love of Marvel, and like Westerns plus their recognizability, it is fine bcause they are nkt going anywhere far.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yep. We stated that. Notice I said recently.
I also never claimed Blum never had a flop. Just that buy and large until recently the guy had a magic touch with conservative budgets and high concept success.

But also, objectively the point and one you denied.

The top performing movies at the box office are family and horror.

So this era, that is what is audiences are trending too. It's not a three marvel releases performing stellar a year anymore.

We know you hate this because your love of Marvel, and like Westerns plus their recognizability, it is fine bcause they are nkt going anywhere far.

I believe you have misunderstood where I'm coming from. Sure I love Marvel, just like I love all Disney stuff. But I don't hate that any particular genre is having its time in the sun so to speak. So me bringing up that horror is starting to show signs of fatigue is not trying to hate on horror, its just being realistic to the marketplace. Just like I can be honest and say that even the MCU and superhero genre has had its fatigue too (even if I think its impact has been overblown a bit by many). So if we're being honest about the current state of the marketplace then we have to acknowledge that horror (and even to a minor extent even family films) are starting to show fatigue as audiences aren't eating it up like they were. As the saying goes, too much of a good thing is not actually good, variety is the key.

 

[celluloid]

I believe you have misunderstood where I'm coming from. Sure I love Marvel, just like I love all Disney stuff. But I don't hate that any particular genre is having its time in the sun so to speak. So me bringing up that horror is starting to show signs of fatigue is not trying to hate on horror, its just being realistic to the marketplace. Just like I can be honest and say that even the MCU and superhero genre has had its fatigue too (even if I think its impact has been overblown a bit by many). So if we're being honest about the current state of the marketplace then we have to acknowledge that horror (and even to a minor extent even family films) are starting to show fatigue as audiences aren't eating it up like they were. As the saying goes, too much of a good thing is not actually good, variety is the key.

As a genre it would be foolishness to say horror is showing fatigue.

The top performers of the box office this year has examples of this with commercial and critical success.


As a whole Family and Horror is the current flavor of commercial and critical, and action is having difficulties. No opinion necessary