Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

1 billion incoming.

Will it though? It would seem to be more on a trajectory towards $850 Million or less, even with Japan's debut next weekend.

Regardless of whether it makes $800 Million or $1 Billion at the global box office, it's a huge money maker for Burbank and the Rideback Ranch kids over the hill. Thanks to its very modest $100 Million production costs from Rideback Ranch, it already crossed into profitability just as this weekend was starting.

I wonder if Burbank learns a lesson from that? The cubicle army on the Burbank lot can't be pleased at what the success of Lilo & Stitch means for their future.

 

[LittleBuford]

It's actually spelled "Oof". It's almost always it's own sentence. It's an old Swedish thing my parents and grandparents used for little unfortunate events that deserved, well, an.... Oof! It's actual origins were the Norwegian language "Uff da!", which was also used, but much less often, in my Swedish household. But "Uff da" was sort of Americanized into Oof! by the mid 20th century by my grandparents. And now you can use it too!

Though I don't doubt you have family and cultural reasons for using it, the English "oof" is a cognate of the Swedish "uff" rather than a derivative of it (it exists in many Germanic languages). It is attested as far back as the eighteenth century.

Oxford English Dictionary

The OED is the definitive record of the English language, featuring 600,000 words, 3 million quotations, and over 1,000 years of English.

www.oed.com

Definition of OOF

—used to express discomfort, surprise, or dismay… See the full definition

www.merriam-webster.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

1 billion incoming.

Not sure about that…

But if true it shows how easy this is because I thought that months ago

At first glance….looks like it slow a little more than I thought domestically but picked up internationally?

Let’s see if it becomes “the choice of grandma” as the rest of US schools dump out?

 

[Disney Irish]

Here's the first pass at weekend box office, gang! Lilo & Stitch dropped 57% and Thunderbolts dropped 50% from last weekend.

It does not appear as though Thunderbolts will hit $400 Million globally at this point. And with a production budget of $180 Million, that means it will lose a substantial amount of money for Burbank at the box office. That's definitely an Oof!

As always, final numbers will be available for this weekend by tomorrow afternoon.

View attachment 861860

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 3, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of October 3, 2025

thenumbers.com

The same thing was said about Cap4 and look it hit over $400M, $413.6M to be exact. Thunderbolts has been tracking ahead of Cap4 for the most part since its second weekend, and is only $3.8M behind it now domestically at its same point at the 31 day mark. Btw, that is how you do a real comparison.

So I’d say it still has a good shot at breaking $400M, and coming in around the same as Cap4.

 

[Disney Irish]

Not sure about that…

But if true it shows how easy this is because I thought that months ago

At $610M WW on it second weekend, basically doubling its first weekend. So I wouldn’t say it’s for sure hitting $1B, but at this point I’d be surprised if it doesn’t.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The same thing was said about Cap4 and look it hit over $400M, $413.6M to be exact. Thunderbolts has been tracking ahead of Cap4 for the most part since its second weekend, and is only $3.8M behind it now domestically at its same point at the 31 day mark. Btw, that is how you do a real comparison.

So I’d say it still has a good shot at breaking $400M, and coming in around the same as Cap4.

JHC…get off the marvel flops for the good of humanity
Stop trying to parse them.

They’re wet farts…they need to do way the hell better

 

[Disney Analyst]

It’s a shame as Thunderbolts is a really good addition to the MCU library.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

At $610M WW on it second weekend, basically doubling its first weekend. So I wouldn’t say it’s for sure hitting $1B, but at this point I’d be surprised if it doesn’t.

You would say…there’s also a disconnect between the reality - which is movies makes like 80% of their box office gross or more in the first 3 weeks - and some opinions around here.

This one has a shot because of what it is and a lack of options for the target demographics…for sure. But $400 mil after it’s no longer a new release is a hill to climb for sure.

I won’t doubt the little blue animal too much though…I think I’ve been mention all year what he is and why it hit…and also why the others that haven’t, never were gonna

 

[Disney Irish]

JHC…get off the marvel flops for the good of humanity
Stop trying to parse them.

They’re wet farts…they need to do way the hell better

This is a box office discussion thread as I’ve been told many times, I’m discussing the box office. And I’m trying to keep things honest here with the calculations and comparisons. You are more than welcome to join in on the discussion or if you think it’s a waste of time you can bow out. But please refrain from telling me to stop talking about a current movie and how it’s doing at the box office, as many have told me the same.

 

[TP2000]

The same thing was said about Cap4 and look it hit over $400M, $413.6M to be exact. Thunderbolts has been tracking ahead of Cap4 for the most part since its second weekend, and is only $3.8M behind it now domestically at its same point at the 31 day mark. Btw, that is how you do a real comparison.

So I’d say it still has a good shot at breaking $400M, and coming in around the same as Cap4.

I dunno, I just don't see it.

Thunderbolts is sitting now at $370 Million after this weekend, it had weak legs throughout its entire run, it did not do well overseas, and going into its 6th week it has now flatlined at the box office.

Unless they hold that turkey in 500 theaters through Labor Day, I just don't see how Thunderbolts gets past $400 Million globally. It will lose a lot of money for Burbank at the box office, just as Captain America 4 already did.

Maybe they could sell off the Asterisk for a few bucks to help defray its losses?

 

[Disney Irish]

I dunno, I just don't see it.

Thunderbolts is sitting now at $370 Million after this weekend, it had weak legs throughout its entire run, it did not do well overseas, and going into its 6th week it has now flatlined at the box office.

Unless they hold that turkey in 500 theaters through Labor Day, I just don't see how Thunderbolts gets past $400 Million globally. It will lose a lot of money for Burbank at the box office, just as Captain America 4 already did.

Maybe they could sell off the Asterisk for a few bucks to help defray its losses?

View attachment 861865

You may not see it, but if you actually follow the week-by-week tracking it’s been pulling ahead of Cap4 daily. As I mentioned it’s only $3.8M behind where Cap4 was at the same point. So if it keeps this pace it’ll hit $400M. Or it could fall off and plummet to zero (as unlikely a scenario as that is), the point is don’t call it out just yet.

Also as has been discussed many times, just because it didn’t make profit during theatrical doesn’t mean to won’t turn a profit ever. An MCU movie like this has huge earning potential post-theatrical, so it’ll turn a profit and won’t lose Burbank a dime.

 

[Disney Irish]

You would say…there’s also a disconnect between the reality - which is movies makes like 80% of their box office gross or more in the first 3 weeks - and some opinions around here.

This one has a shot because of what it is and a lack of options for the target demographics…for sure. But $400 mil after it’s no longer a new release is a hill to climb for sure.

I won’t doubt the little blue animal too much though…I think I’ve been mention all year what he is and why it hit…and also why the others that haven’t, never were gonna

Stitch is already pulling ahead of where Minecraft was at this point in it run, and it made just under $1B. So as long as it keeps ahead of where Minecraft was I don’t see it having any problem hitting $1B.

 

[BrianLo]

I think there’s a blowback when we say the word “legs”. Like some prognostication that every movie is going to pull an Elemental or Mufasa and rescue itself from the brink.

But by and large I’m often just referring to what’s normal. We’ve already seen Thunderbolts pass Cap 1 despite the Forbes article saying that was an impossible task… five days later.

The same applies to Stitch. It brought in 176M. A normal multiple is another 2X or 350M. A good multiple is easily 500M more. Thinking the film will struggle to hit 850 is a misread after the data we have coming out of this weekend. That would be an unusual crash and burn for a film that had an exceptional international hold, a better domestic hold than figured (we’re measuring a domestic holiday week on week) and an unreleased market that’s not unreasonable to expect some strong change out of. 850 is no longer the correct prediction.

 

[BrianLo]

Also apologies… stitch brought in 269M this week (Tuesday on), 176M this weekend.

I’m not seeing any world where it only makes 240M more.

Aladdin and B&TB made 110M in Japan. We can even halve that to be cautious.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think there’s a blowback when we say the word “legs”. Like some prognostication that every movie is going to pull an Elemental or Mufasa and rescue itself from the brink.

But by and large I’m often just referring to what’s normal. We’ve already seen Thunderbolts pass Cap 1 despite the Forbes article saying that was an impossible task… five days later.

The same applies to Stitch. It brought in 176M. A normal multiple is another 2X or 350M. A good multiple is easily 500M more. Thinking the film will struggle to hit 850 is a misread after the data we have coming out of this weekend. That would be an unusual crash and burn for a film that had an exceptional international hold, a better domestic hold than figured (we’re measuring a domestic holiday week on week) and an unreleased market that’s not unreasonable to expect some strong change out of. 850 is no longer the correct prediction.

I think some see the pretty graph on Numbers and think it’s a true prognostication tool about a movies outcome. It’s just showing an average outcome of movies from the last 5 year, not a for sure outcome for a particular film. Nothing more. And as we’ve seen it hasn’t predicted many movies properly including the two you mentioned. It should be treated just like any calculation, with a huge grain of salt.

 

[BrianLo]

I think some see the pretty graph on Numbers and think it’s a true prognostication tool about a movies outcome. It’s just showing an average outcome of movies from the last 5 year, not a for sure outcome for a particular film. Nothing more. And as we’ve seen it hasn’t predicted many movies properly including the two you mentioned. It should be treated just like any calculation, with a huge grain of salt.

There’s also no tool that really captures international due to the staggered release nature. See my sneak edit on Japan above. I won’t commit to 110M…

Underestimate Japanese love of Stitch and Hawaii to your peril.

 

[Disney Irish]

There’s also no tool that really captures international due to the staggered release nature. See my sneak edit on Japan above. I won’t commit to 110M…

Underestimate Japanese love of Stitch and Hawaii to your peril.

Exactly, which is why I keep pushing back on that silly percent calc that TP is using as it doesn’t show a real comparison, especially not one week-by-week. It’s highly inaccurate and gives a false accounting for how a movie really tracks internationally.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s a shame as Thunderbolts is a really good addition to the MCU library.

But found no audience…which Is a big problem for the ole Dis…

Not hard to perform the autopsy here…they’ve made mistakes

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is a box office discussion thread as I’ve been told many times, I’m discussing the box office. And I’m trying to keep things honest here with the calculations and comparisons. You are more than welcome to join in on the discussion or if you think it’s a waste of time you can bow out. But please refrain from telling me to stop talking about a current movie and how it’s doing at the box office, as many have told me the same.

Oh

…you’re trying to shine these flubs up…next pivot is to somehow when no one watches them on the stream that’ll fix it.

Blah blah…yada yada…

I’m beginning to appreciate some of your positions…not the wrong one like the MCU blind spot…but a lot of the others.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Also apologies… stitch brought in 269M this week (Tuesday on), 176M this weekend.

I’m not seeing any world where it only makes 240M more.

Aladdin and B&TB made 110M in Japan. We can even halve that to be cautious.

I believe it will…but it still has a good bit of work to do

No need to speak in absolutely about that figure yet…either way