Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

I can't believe it's almost Memorial Day Weekend! Where did the Spring go? I blame Easter for being so late this year (Decades and decades later, and I still don't know how that Easter calendar works! Should I blame the Romans? Or thank the Phoenicians?)

But I've got to do a Target run later this week, so what should I be looking for in the toy aisle for Burbank Summer Mega-Budget Tentpole Blockbuster stuff on sale? Lilo & Stitch stuff? Or Fantastic Four? We used to be able to chart the summer releases by the toys in the McDonald's Happy Meals, but I guess that's over now. So... the Target toy aisle it is!

Honestly, if Bob Chapek had a single ounce of humor or personality, he would've gotten Kristin Wiig as The Target Lady to bring the dog out on stage at D23 Expo. But then, it was Bob Chapek, and he had no humor or personality to speak of.

 

[TP2000]

And you don't know what those internal goals are though, no one here does.

I know the kids today don't like to use the word "Capitalism", and everyone likes to pretend that Capitalist Free Markets aren't a thing even though they still are, and still feed and clothe and shelter us all. But...

I'm going to guess the internal goal for any Burbank movie is to make a profit. Preferably at the box office.

We should have a thread about that. It could be fun!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I know the kids today don't like to use the word "Capitalism", and everyone likes to pretend that Capitalist Free Markets aren't a thing even though they still are, and still feed and clothe and shelter us all. But...

I'm going to guess the internal goal for any Burbank movie is to make a profit. Preferably at the box office.

We should have a thread about that. It could be fun!

It’s just a redonkulous
Stance…

“Well…we used to make 3-4x+ our budgets for most of these tentpoles…but now we’re cool barely breaking even…and often losing. We also like being questioned for our choices constantly (negative buzz). But we understand because we had to buy hand sanitizer for a year”

What in the hell?

 

[Nevermore525]

Zootopia 2 gets a trailer drop pre Lilo and Stitch.

Meanwhile, Elio hasn’t gotten a new trailer drop since March. I’m not counting the TV spot before American Idol because it’s acknowledged nowhere by Disney or Pixar.

Disney really does not care how Elio performs, but maybe they just expect it to bomb since there has only been 1 “Original” films since Coco (2017) to earn $200M domestically. Sinners is the list.

 

[John park hopper]

Noticed Snow White is available on Netflix to rent ---didn't last long in the theaters maybe Disney should get out of the movie business and concentrate on making the parks great again

 

[LittleBuford]

Noticed Snow White is available on Netflix to rent ---didn't last long in the theaters maybe Disney should get out of the movie business and concentrate on making the parks great again

Unless I’m mistaken, you would have seen it on another platform, as I don’t think it (or any film, for that matter) is available to rent on Netflix. In any case, it’s still playing in some cinemas, and the time between its theatrical release and recent rental release is pretty standard these days, and certainly not short—Wicked became available to rent much quicker.

None of this is to deny the film has performed abysmally, of course.

 

[Dranth]

Noticed Snow White is available on Netflix to rent ---didn't last long in the theaters maybe Disney should get out of the movie business and concentrate on making the parks great again

I want to push back on this because it seems to be a pretty common sentiment that I think misses the mark a bit.

If we look back, Disney has regularly been releasing bombs since 1940 with stretches of amazing successes sprinkled in but without sticking with it, they NEVER would have come close to the success they achieved. Even more so these days as they now have more than enough other revenue streams to cover a bad theatrical year(s) and the long-term gains from the good years more than make up for the bad.

For example, the worst year modern Disney ever had with expensive bomb after bomb was 2023 and that year:

• Content Sales/Licensing (where theatrical is located) reported a loss of 179 million.
• Direct-To-Consumer lost 2.5 billion (THIS is the kind of money that can impact other areas).
• Linear made 4.1 billion

So, the entire segment was positive for the year and let's face it, theatrical bombs are not nearly as massive as people want to make them out to be. If people want to be mad about D+ eating up money sure, I can see it though I would argue long term it is better than the other alternatives they were facing. Now that the company is past large losses in the Direct-To-Consumer division, we suddenly see projects at the parks again. How much we like those projects is a whole other conversation but that isn't theatrical releases dragging down resources for the parks.

 

[Nevermore525]

Noticed Snow White is available on Netflix to rent ---didn't last long in the theaters maybe Disney should get out of the movie business and concentrate on making the parks great again

It’s been on PVOD since May 13, A Minecraft Movie hit PVOD on the same day.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

To rent Snow White it's $25 right now. Would be interesting to know the revenue some of these films make in on demand sales. But that is information rarely made public.

 

[Agent H]

This is a really dumb week to try and downplay how Disney does its business. And I’m not talking about the box office gross…that’s the “gateway” to real money

I’ll give you a hint: Friday

It’s Friday? Cool can we swap bodies so I can see what made you mad at Disney?

Even if the bulk of promotion is prior it’s theater debut…it still creates awareness for the afterlife at the cinemas…..how many times have we seen people on this very site… I will wait to stream it…. In fact most studios would probably rather have people stream it at the $20.00 price point… they will get a bigger cut

This. The number of people who are willing to leave their house to see a movie that isn’t a big event is dwindling. It’s becoming much harder for the average person (not I) to find the time and the money.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s Friday? Cool can we swap bodies so I can see what made you mad at Disney?

Unless I’m mistaken…and I very well could be…you're gonna see a prime example of what Disney wants from its movies starting this weekend

And it’s not “maybe” break even and not get noticed by really anyone

 

[Disney Irish]

I know the kids today don't like to use the word "Capitalism", and everyone likes to pretend that Capitalist Free Markets aren't a thing even though they still are, and still feed and clothe and shelter us all. But...

I'm going to guess the internal goal for any Burbank movie is to make a profit. Preferably at the box office.

We should have a thread about that. It could be fun!

Capitalistic goals is still the priority at Disney today, same as it was in Walt's day, but that doesn't mean its goals are primarily driven by the box office receipts anymore. We're in a new era of consumer consumption where the box office is now becoming secondary and used to drive primary consumption which is the secondary market.

As noted before, from Disney's own FY24 earnings report right at the top of page 6 -

"The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in
an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film"

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2025/01/2024-Annual-Report.pdf

I know its hard for some to wrap their head around, but theatrical is no longer the same as it was in the previous decades. Just a fact that some will have to get used to as I don't see this changing.

 

[Disney Irish]

Noticed Snow White is available on Netflix to rent ---didn't last long in the theaters

Snow White was in theaters for 54 days before it went to digital and available to rent. While shorter than some Disney movies recently this is average for most movies in the theatrical space now, after an average 45 days many movies from all Studios go to digital and available for rent.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lmao…the goal is not losses. Good job reading the statement though…which is written specifically to be maximum PR And minimum math

 

[Disney Irish]

Lmao…the goal is not losses. Good job reading the statement though…which is written specifically to be maximum PR And minimum math

And as always you avoid the actual point like its the plague.

Follow along with me here -

The goal is not for a movie to have a loss overall, of course the goal is to have a movie that is profitable at the end of the day, its just that the box office is no longer the goal of where those profits need to happen. The box office is now secondary to where a movie makes its profit, it is use to setup the primary market for profit which is the post-theatrical space.

The short answer, if a movie fails at the box office as long as those losses are minimized Disney is able to absorb those losses and turn a profit on a movie due to its post-theatrical strategy, ie the primary driver of where a movie now makes profits.

You're a rather intelligent guy, as is TP, and I know you actually both get this point, even if you're being stubborn and won't admit that Disney has positioned itself for this new era of post-theatrical earnings.

 

[celluloid]

And as always you avoid the actual point like its the plague.

Follow along with me here -

The goal is not for a movie to have a loss overall, of course the goal is to have a movie that is profitable at the end of the day, its just that the box office is no longer the goal of where those profits need to happen. The box office is now secondary to where a movie makes its profit, it is use to setup the primary market for profit which is the post-theatrical space.

The short answer, if a movie fails at the box office as long as those losses are minimized Disney is able to absorb those losses and turn a profit on a movie due to its post-theatrical strategy, ie the primary driver of where a movie now makes profits.

You're a rather intelligent guy, as is TP, and I know you actually both get this point, even if you're being stubborn and won't admit that Disney has positioned itself for this new era of post-theatrical earnings.

No, The goal is to make as much money as possible for any production.

Disney wants D Plus AND the box office to smash.

If it is garbage in theaters, it is typically garbage at home. 90 percent of your films can't lose money and hope to be home video and cult classic hits.

Particularly when your competition is still doing it.


The good news is now they can move forward with trying harder now that the other things are met with tired audiences.

Disney can't do three Marvel releases breaking 300 million domestic anymore, and they are not sure what to do with the rest. Its not very stable.

 

[Disney Irish]

No, The goal is to make as much money as possible for any production.

And where did I say any different? All I've said is that the space in which those monies are made is no longer isolated to the box office as its primary driver.

Disney wants D Plus AND the box office to smash.

I think you're missing the forest through the trees here. No where did I say that Disney doesn't want to make as much money as they can at the box office, only that they aren't driven by JUST the box office as the primary driver.

If it is garbage in theaters, it is typically garbage at home. 90 percent of your films can't lose money and hope to be home video and cult classic hits.

Do you have any proof showing that is not possible in the current market? We have the better part of 50 years of proof showing the counter is true that a movie can be a failure at the box office and find a following and earn a profit in the home space.

Particularly when your competition is still doing it.

Are they? So far there have been a total of 2, count them 2 movies that have been a "smash" at the box office in 2025. So I don't count that as the competition doing much better, when its actually only one, WB, that has found any real success this year.

The good news is now they can move forward with trying harder now that the other things are met with tired audiences.

I find it funny that 2024 was just a little under 6 months ago, a year where Disney absolutely killed it at the box office and people forget.

Disney can't do three Marvel releases breaking 300 million domestic anymore, and they are not sure what to do with the rest. Its not very stable.

Again go back to 2024 where Marvel had a release that broke $300M domestic, guess you forgot that one.

 

[celluloid]

And where did I say any different? All I've said is that the space in which those monies are made is no longer isolated to the box office as its primary driver.

You are trying to make a point that is not true. It is still the primary driver.

Captain America: Brave New World will never make another 200 million domestic isolated to its streaming and VOD sales. And a studio can't just hope that is what will always happen. They will gladly hurt less with residuals, but it will never make as much as it did primarily at box office. So just you saying theater box office is no longer a primary driver is false.

You are disguising the fact you don't have a point with a lot of other things.

Box office is still majority of the time where studios make most of their money on the film itself.

 

[celluloid]

Again go back to 2024 where Marvel had a release that broke $300M domestic, guess you forgot that one.

You missed the part where I said they can't release three marvel releases in a year breaking 300 million domestic anymore.

 

[brideck]

Box office is still majority of the time where studios make most of their money on the film itself.

This is not true. Take a look at these 5 moderately successful horror movies from last year. Take a gander at the revenue section for each of them. What % of that revenue is coming from "Theatrical"?

https://deadline.com/2025/04/most-profitable-movies-2024-biggest-returns-1236379096/

Even modest hits like Mufasa and Sonic 3 (modest = 10th most profitable movie of the year, in this case) made only ~50% of their revenue in theaters. It's only the handful of biggest hits every year that are getting the majority of their earning at the box office.