Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Unless I’m mistaken…and I very well could be…you're gonna see a prime example of what Disney wants from its movies starting this weekend
And it’s not “maybe” break even and not get noticed by really anyone
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Unless I’m mistaken…and I very well could be…you're gonna see a prime example of what Disney wants from its movies starting this weekend
And it’s not “maybe” break even and not get noticed by really anyone
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I know the kids today don't like to use the word "Capitalism", and everyone likes to pretend that Capitalist Free Markets aren't a thing even though they still are, and still feed and clothe and shelter us all. But...
I'm going to guess the internal goal for any Burbank movie is to make a profit. Preferably at the box office.
We should have a thread about that. It could be fun!
Capitalistic goals is still the priority at Disney today, same as it was in Walt's day, but that doesn't mean its goals are primarily driven by the box office receipts anymore. We're in a new era of consumer consumption where the box office is now becoming secondary and used to drive primary consumption which is the secondary market.
As noted before, from Disney's own FY24 earnings report right at the top of page 6 -
"The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in
an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film"
https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2025/01/2024-Annual-Report.pdf
I know its hard for some to wrap their head around, but theatrical is no longer the same as it was in the previous decades. Just a fact that some will have to get used to as I don't see this changing.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Snow White was in theaters for 54 days before it went to digital and available to rent. While shorter than some Disney movies recently this is average for most movies in the theatrical space now, after an average 45 days many movies from all Studios go to digital and available for rent.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Lmao…the goal is not losses. Good job reading the statement though…which is written specifically to be maximum PR And minimum math
Disney Irish
Premium Member
And as always you avoid the actual point like its the plague.
Follow along with me here -
The goal is not for a movie to have a loss overall, of course the goal is to have a movie that is profitable at the end of the day, its just that the box office is no longer the goal of where those profits need to happen. The box office is now secondary to where a movie makes its profit, it is use to setup the primary market for profit which is the post-theatrical space.
The short answer, if a movie fails at the box office as long as those losses are minimized Disney is able to absorb those losses and turn a profit on a movie due to its post-theatrical strategy, ie the primary driver of where a movie now makes profits.
You're a rather intelligent guy, as is TP, and I know you actually both get this point, even if you're being stubborn and won't admit that Disney has positioned itself for this new era of post-theatrical earnings.
No, The goal is to make as much money as possible for any production.
Disney wants D Plus AND the box office to smash.
If it is garbage in theaters, it is typically garbage at home. 90 percent of your films can't lose money and hope to be home video and cult classic hits.
Particularly when your competition is still doing it.
The good news is now they can move forward with trying harder now that the other things are met with tired audiences.
Disney can't do three Marvel releases breaking 300 million domestic anymore, and they are not sure what to do with the rest. Its not very stable.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
And where did I say any different? All I've said is that the space in which those monies are made is no longer isolated to the box office as its primary driver.
I think you're missing the forest through the trees here. No where did I say that Disney doesn't want to make as much money as they can at the box office, only that they aren't driven by JUST the box office as the primary driver.
Do you have any proof showing that is not possible in the current market? We have the better part of 50 years of proof showing the counter is true that a movie can be a failure at the box office and find a following and earn a profit in the home space.
Are they? So far there have been a total of 2, count them 2 movies that have been a "smash" at the box office in 2025. So I don't count that as the competition doing much better, when its actually only one, WB, that has found any real success this year.
I find it funny that 2024 was just a little under 6 months ago, a year where Disney absolutely killed it at the box office and people forget.
Again go back to 2024 where Marvel had a release that broke $300M domestic, guess you forgot that one.
You are trying to make a point that is not true. It is still the primary driver.
Captain America: Brave New World will never make another 200 million domestic isolated to its streaming and VOD sales. And a studio can't just hope that is what will always happen. They will gladly hurt less with residuals, but it will never make as much as it did primarily at box office. So just you saying theater box office is no longer a primary driver is false.
You are disguising the fact you don't have a point with a lot of other things.
Box office is still majority of the time where studios make most of their money on the film itself.
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You missed the part where I said they can't release three marvel releases in a year breaking 300 million domestic anymore.
brideck
Well-Known Member
This is not true. Take a look at these 5 moderately successful horror movies from last year. Take a gander at the revenue section for each of them. What % of that revenue is coming from "Theatrical"?
https://deadline.com/2025/04/most-profitable-movies-2024-biggest-returns-1236379096/
Even modest hits like Mufasa and Sonic 3 (modest = 10th most profitable movie of the year, in this case) made only ~50% of their revenue in theaters. It's only the handful of biggest hits every year that are getting the majority of their earning at the box office.
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Netflix must be on the verge of bankruptcy with the billions of dollars they spend on content…. 320 million on Electric State alone
Who said you can't have content streaming success? Not mutually exclusive and does not change the fact that the theatrical box office is still the best and fastest way to make your money.
You will notice that many things people want to watch on Netflix are also box office hits of recent are old. With just their own content, they would habe a rougher go. This was an odd comparison.
Yes, there are some who can perform well at home superior to theaters. Does not change the primary money maker method for studio for those releases, which...did you notice how typically the higher gross in box office correlates to higher income at home?
Hmmm...almost like the box office is still...tje primary driver of successful revenue?
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Again you're missing the forest through the trees on this one. The box office IS NOT the same as it once was, for any studio. You have been one of the posters here who kept claiming that it was going to get back to pre-pandemic levels soon, well that ain't happening. The first half of 2025 has been dismal for the box office, and unless something gets better the rest doesn't look much better overall either.
Again something you cannot prove, do you know all the post-theatrical deals Disney has in place for Cap4? Or how much it'll make in all its digital and PVOD sales/rentals?
This is something that none of us know.
Actually that isn't what you said, maybe you intended to, but you didn't at least not when I responded to you. Also its not like there haven't been years in Marvels recent past where they didn't have all their movies breaking $300M. I would even say that on average they have years where they release more than one film where at least one doesn't break $300M.
Also we don't know how F4 will do, so let's wait and see, maybe it'll surprise or maybe it won't, dunno.
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Yeah…but that’s not gonna stop the few here from spinning their narratives like tops
Even if the dynamics have changed…which they certainly have…ignoring how these flicks aren’t being well received/consumed is borderline clueless
That disables what Disney does well…licensing and cross selling.
Those losses will be made up somewhere…and we all know where it will be
They made the choice to pour in billions with they were on the precipice some years ago…it was a risk but I that’s the model
On the contrary…two idiots named “Bob” have publicly complained about the costs
I bet that’ll work
brideck
Well-Known Member
Absolutely true. You don't think that the movie with the 2nd highest gross income at the BO so far this year (Cap 4, which would have been 14th overall last year) will correlate to a correspondingly high income in the home market?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
For Disney…I disagree with this…sorta
Their primary easy profits centers are the legs and ability to sell other things that hit movies get them. The “machine”
Even in changing times…that’s how you get the easy money
What good box office does is be an indicator of that potential. Still by far the best indicator. It shows audience commitment. D+ does not.
I said it earlier: this is a huge week for them…the biggest of the year. The success of the “Disney machine” is gonna be showcased.
It better be
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
You’re correlating some of there’s flops as being a new sub or sustained sub…which is pretty silly. It doesn’t “generate income” in the home market otherwise.
You know what does?
Bluey
A good original series…if they can get one?
Without a doubt we can get into ancillary of merch and other synergy.
The reality is box office to box office, it is science or marketing and business that theater has greater impact.
Even marketing to theaters is often more beneficial than television. This is because it is proven that theatrical ads get more results than ads seen at home. In this distracted world it probably even has to ring true more than ever.
Business has so many risks, but they love mitigating the odds with what things show. And theaters still show success there is the primary driver for all other aspects.
That is why while Jaws has yet to stream a series or revival(thank goodness) and is often not streaming anywhere. It has an entire summer of festivities at Universal and it has remained in pop culture zeitgeist. The theater is the fastest and primary driver for that zeitgeist.
In terms of flops that eventually find an audience: they can't all be cult classics.
The majority of THE BEST for the machine have always been successful at box office first.
Disney re-releasing Star Wars films for easy profit is just one recent example of how they know this works and keeps the machine healthy.
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Disney Irish
Premium Member
I'm glad you acknowledge the market has changed, something you've been hard pressed to do even in recent conversations. Also no one is ignoring the fact that some of their movies haven't been well received at the box office.