Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

But don’t you remember? Captain America was the film that was going to be a return to form. But then when that flatlined, the spin was that Thunderbolts* was the first film from Fiege after he righted the ship. Now it looks like this one will come and go without really improving the health of the franchise.

The next spin will be, “Fantastic Four is really the next big film in the MCU and will help reset everything.” If and when that disappoints, watch where the goalposts get moved again that Avengers: Doomsday is where they finally get it right.

-Signed, someone that watched DC try this over and over again for the last few years.

By all accounts Thunderbolts IS a shot in the arm that the MCU needed in terms of quality. So the issue ISN'T the film itself, the issue IS regaining the trust and focus of the audience. The hope was that word of mouth would help with that, but its clear that its going to take more than one film to do it.

So no one is moving the goalpost here, its been the same. Correct the perceived quality issues, which they appear to have done, regain the trust and focus of the audience, still underway, and it will hopefully return to form in terms of box office earnings. Which by the way was never $1B+ being the goal, so lets get that out of the way right now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And you couldn't be further off in what modern Hollywood actually is today, in a post-pandemic streaming world. As noted previously in a direct quote from the earnings, Disney is aware and accepts the box office IS NOT the profit center for a movie anymore. They accept and expect that a movie in general isn't going to make its money back during theatrical. That its new profit center is post-theatrical. And so they set the movie up for that purpose.

The "modern Hollywood" that you're talking about is from the 90s or early 00s, not the 2020s, which isn't modern anymore. The world is changing, Hollywood is pivoting. One wonders why you can't accept that fact.

This is a really dumb week to try and downplay how Disney does its business. And I’m not talking about the box office gross…that’s the “gateway” to real money

I’ll give you a hint: Friday

 

[Disney Irish]

This is a really dumb week to try and downplay how Disney does its business. And I’m not talking about the box office gross…that’s the “gateway” to real money

I’ll give you a hint: Friday

Instead of playing these "inside comment" games just state what you mean. Very few actually know what you mean half the time, so state it plainly so everyone knows instead of assuming that people do.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The next spin will be, “Fantastic Four is really the next big film in the MCU and will help reset everything.” If and when that disappoints, watch where the goalposts get moved again that Avengers: Doomsday is where they finally get it right.

If Fantastic 4 also underperforms*, than no amount of spin from our armchair analysts will change the fact it will have been a disappointing year for the MCU.

*at this time, I don't think it will.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

As of right now, I see FF performing similar to other recent MCU films.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As of right now, I see FF performing similar to other recent MCU films.

We can’t even agree on what that actually is?

 

[Disney Irish]

We can’t even agree on what that actually is?

I think we can all agree what is it. What I don't think we can agree on is what our beliefs in what expectations are surrounding the same inside the walls of Burbank.

Range appears to be be $400-$500M for the average of recent MCU films, if you're wondering.

 

[BrianLo]

I chaff at being indirectly accused of spin; going to assume I’m being lumped in there. Trying to present things consistently and accurately is not spinning.

Cap 4 I was never excited for or inspired by. I don’t know who had hopes for it, but it was never me. That movie was forgettable.

Thunderbolts was quite good and is a quality step up and quite disappointing it did not perform as it “deserved” to have. Though I suspect it is limping past Cap 4, the holds are far better than that film.

Fantastic 4 definitely needs to hit and I suspect it will. Anything under 600 unless the movie is an unexpected train wreck, is a massive slight on the current state of the MCU. It is the tentpole film for them this year.

 

[brideck]

Instead of playing these "inside comment" games just state what you mean. Very few actually know what you mean half the time, so state it plainly so everyone knows instead of assuming that people do.

Pretty sure I've actually interpreted this one. "Friday" being when Lilo & Stitch is out and will hit pretty massively, so therefore it will be proof that all Disney movies are intended to hit massively and rake in the bucks at the BO.

 

[brideck]

They didn’t make 30 mcu movies for “some people”

Meant to respond to this earlier. They absolutely did make them for "some" people.

Comic books, superheroes, and their movies have never been a four-quadrant endeavor. They've always skewed male and younger. The fact that the MCU contains movies and shows explicitly designed to target different quadrants should be evidence enough of this.

 

[Disney Irish]

Pretty sure I've actually interpreted this one. "Friday" being when Lilo & Stitch is out and will hit pretty massively, so therefore it will be proof that all Disney movies are intended to hit massively and rake in the bucks at the BO.

That is the problem, we shouldn't have to interpret a vague comment that could really mean anything.

But to expand upon that, assuming its a correct interpretation, I don't see that as some "proof" of anything, other than Disney movies can still be a hit at the box office (which I don't think there was any doubt given 2024), but certainly not "proof" that Disney intends or expects that with their movies. The guidance given in the FY24 earnings shows what Disney's intentions and expectations are with the box office.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Meant to respond to this earlier. They absolutely did make them for "some" people.

Comic books, superheroes, and their movies have never been a four-quadrant endeavor. They've always skewed male and younger. The fact that the MCU contains movies and shows explicitly designed to target different quadrants should be evidence enough of this.

Well marvel studios and paramount did…for sure

But we aren’t talking about that…it was a moving train

What’s always convenient when talking Disney is how often people want to give them Credit for being unique…when it suits…while reserving the right to comp them to anyone else…when convenient.

Either they’re the big dog…or some puppy tumbling around. They can’t be both

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think we can all agree what is it. What I don't think we can agree on is what our beliefs in what expectations are surrounding the same inside the walls of Burbank.

Range appears to be be $400-$500M for the average of recent MCU films, if you're wondering.

That’s the results…not the goals

Kinda big deal

 

[Disney Irish]

That’s the results…not the goals

Kinda big deal

And you don't know what those internal goals are though, no one here does. So don't play like you do, you have an opinion based on an assumption, but there is no proof that is actually what Disney's goal are.

Also as discussed I believe your assumptions of goals are outdated and incorrect based on where we are in the post-pandemic era. Disney has provided guidance on what their goals are, so I don't know why you can't accept that.

 

[TP2000]

I can't believe it's almost Memorial Day Weekend! Where did the Spring go? I blame Easter for being so late this year (Decades and decades later, and I still don't know how that Easter calendar works! Should I blame the Romans? Or thank the Phoenicians?)

But I've got to do a Target run later this week, so what should I be looking for in the toy aisle for Burbank Summer Mega-Budget Tentpole Blockbuster stuff on sale? Lilo & Stitch stuff? Or Fantastic Four? We used to be able to chart the summer releases by the toys in the McDonald's Happy Meals, but I guess that's over now. So... the Target toy aisle it is!

Honestly, if Bob Chapek had a single ounce of humor or personality, he would've gotten Kristin Wiig as The Target Lady to bring the dog out on stage at D23 Expo. But then, it was Bob Chapek, and he had no humor or personality to speak of.

 

[TP2000]

And you don't know what those internal goals are though, no one here does.

I know the kids today don't like to use the word "Capitalism", and everyone likes to pretend that Capitalist Free Markets aren't a thing even though they still are, and still feed and clothe and shelter us all. But...

I'm going to guess the internal goal for any Burbank movie is to make a profit. Preferably at the box office.

We should have a thread about that. It could be fun!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I know the kids today don't like to use the word "Capitalism", and everyone likes to pretend that Capitalist Free Markets aren't a thing even though they still are, and still feed and clothe and shelter us all. But...

I'm going to guess the internal goal for any Burbank movie is to make a profit. Preferably at the box office.

We should have a thread about that. It could be fun!

It’s just a redonkulous
Stance…

“Well…we used to make 3-4x+ our budgets for most of these tentpoles…but now we’re cool barely breaking even…and often losing. We also like being questioned for our choices constantly (negative buzz). But we understand because we had to buy hand sanitizer for a year”

What in the hell?

 

[Nevermore525]

Zootopia 2 gets a trailer drop pre Lilo and Stitch.

Meanwhile, Elio hasn’t gotten a new trailer drop since March. I’m not counting the TV spot before American Idol because it’s acknowledged nowhere by Disney or Pixar.

Disney really does not care how Elio performs, but maybe they just expect it to bomb since there has only been 1 “Original” films since Coco (2017) to earn $200M domestically. Sinners is the list.

 

[John park hopper]

Noticed Snow White is available on Netflix to rent ---didn't last long in the theaters maybe Disney should get out of the movie business and concentrate on making the parks great again

 

[LittleBuford]

Noticed Snow White is available on Netflix to rent ---didn't last long in the theaters maybe Disney should get out of the movie business and concentrate on making the parks great again

Unless I’m mistaken, you would have seen it on another platform, as I don’t think it (or any film, for that matter) is available to rent on Netflix. In any case, it’s still playing in some cinemas, and the time between its theatrical release and recent rental release is pretty standard these days, and certainly not short—Wicked became available to rent much quicker.

None of this is to deny the film has performed abysmally, of course.