Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

And where did I say any different? All I've said is that the space in which those monies are made is no longer isolated to the box office as its primary driver.

You are trying to make a point that is not true. It is still the primary driver.

Captain America: Brave New World will never make another 200 million domestic isolated to its streaming and VOD sales. And a studio can't just hope that is what will always happen. They will gladly hurt less with residuals, but it will never make as much as it did primarily at box office. So just you saying theater box office is no longer a primary driver is false.

You are disguising the fact you don't have a point with a lot of other things.

Box office is still majority of the time where studios make most of their money on the film itself.

 

[celluloid]

Again go back to 2024 where Marvel had a release that broke $300M domestic, guess you forgot that one.

You missed the part where I said they can't release three marvel releases in a year breaking 300 million domestic anymore.

 

[brideck]

Box office is still majority of the time where studios make most of their money on the film itself.

This is not true. Take a look at these 5 moderately successful horror movies from last year. Take a gander at the revenue section for each of them. What % of that revenue is coming from "Theatrical"?

https://deadline.com/2025/04/most-profitable-movies-2024-biggest-returns-1236379096/

Even modest hits like Mufasa and Sonic 3 (modest = 10th most profitable movie of the year, in this case) made only ~50% of their revenue in theaters. It's only the handful of biggest hits every year that are getting the majority of their earning at the box office.

 

[DKampy]

You are trying to make a point that is not true. It is still the primary driver.

Captain America: Brave New World will never make another 200 million domestic isolated to its streaming and VOD sales. And a studio can't just hope that is what will always happen. They will gladly hurt less with residuals, but it will never make as much as it did primarily at box office. So just you saying theater box office is no longer a primary driver is false.

You are disguising the fact you don't have a point with a lot of other things.

Box office is still majority of the time where studios make most of their money on the film itself.

Netflix must be on the verge of bankruptcy with the billions of dollars they spend on content…. 320 million on Electric State alone

 

[celluloid]

Netflix must be on the verge of bankruptcy with the billions of dollars they spend on content…. 320 million on Electric State alone

Who said you can't have content streaming success? Not mutually exclusive and does not change the fact that the theatrical box office is still the best and fastest way to make your money.

You will notice that many things people want to watch on Netflix are also box office hits of recent are old. With just their own content, they would habe a rougher go. This was an odd comparison.

 

[celluloid]

This is not true. Take a look at these 5 moderately successful horror movies from last year. Take a gander at the revenue section for each of them. What % of that revenue is coming from "Theatrical"?

https://deadline.com/2025/04/most-profitable-movies-2024-biggest-returns-1236379096/

Even modest hits like Mufasa and Sonic 3 made only ~50% of their revenue in theaters. It's only the handful of biggest hits every year that are getting the majority of their earning at the box office.

Yes, there are some who can perform well at home superior to theaters. Does not change the primary money maker method for studio for those releases, which...did you notice how typically the higher gross in box office correlates to higher income at home?
Hmmm...almost like the box office is still...tje primary driver of successful revenue?

 

[Disney Irish]

You are trying to make a point that is not true. It is still the primary driver.

Again you're missing the forest through the trees on this one. The box office IS NOT the same as it once was, for any studio. You have been one of the posters here who kept claiming that it was going to get back to pre-pandemic levels soon, well that ain't happening. The first half of 2025 has been dismal for the box office, and unless something gets better the rest doesn't look much better overall either.

Captain America will never make another 200 million domestic isolated to its streaming and VOD sales.

Again something you cannot prove, do you know all the post-theatrical deals Disney has in place for Cap4? Or how much it'll make in all its digital and PVOD sales/rentals?

This is something that none of us know.

You missed the part where I said they can't release three marvel releases in a year breaking 300 million domestic anymore.

Actually that isn't what you said, maybe you intended to, but you didn't at least not when I responded to you. Also its not like there haven't been years in Marvels recent past where they didn't have all their movies breaking $300M. I would even say that on average they have years where they release more than one film where at least one doesn't break $300M.

Also we don't know how F4 will do, so let's wait and see, maybe it'll surprise or maybe it won't, dunno.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No, The goal is to make as much money as possible for any production.

Disney wants D Plus AND the box office to smash.

If it is garbage in theaters, it is typically garbage at home. 90 percent of your films can't lose money and hope to be home video and cult classic hits.

Particularly when your competition is still doing it.


The good news is now they can move forward with trying harder now that the other things are met with tired audiences.

Disney can't do three Marvel releases breaking 300 million domestic anymore, and they are not sure what to do with the rest. Its not very stable.

Yeah…but that’s not gonna stop the few here from spinning their narratives like tops

Even if the dynamics have changed…which they certainly have…ignoring how these flicks aren’t being well received/consumed is borderline clueless

That disables what Disney does well…licensing and cross selling.

Those losses will be made up somewhere…and we all know where it will be

Netflix must be on the verge of bankruptcy with the billions of dollars they spend on content…. 320 million on Electric State alone

They made the choice to pour in billions with they were on the precipice some years ago…it was a risk but I that’s the model

On the contrary…two idiots named “Bob” have publicly complained about the costs

I bet that’ll work

 

[brideck]

did you notice how typically the higher gross in box office correlates to higher income at home?

Hmmm...almost like the box office is still...tje primary driver of successful revenue?

Absolutely true. You don't think that the movie with the 2nd highest gross income at the BO so far this year (Cap 4, which would have been 14th overall last year) will correlate to a correspondingly high income in the home market?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, there are some who can perform well at home superior to theaters. Does not change the primary money maker method for studio for those releases, which...did you notice how typically the higher gross in box office correlates to higher income at home?
Hmmm...almost like the box office is still...tje primary driver of successful revenue?

For Disney…I disagree with this…sorta

Their primary easy profits centers are the legs and ability to sell other things that hit movies get them. The “machine”

Even in changing times…that’s how you get the easy money

What good box office does is be an indicator of that potential. Still by far the best indicator. It shows audience commitment. D+ does not.

I said it earlier: this is a huge week for them…the biggest of the year. The success of the “Disney machine” is gonna be showcased.

It better be

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Absolutely true. You don't think that the movie with the 2nd highest gross income at the BO so far this year (Cap 4, which would have been 14th overall last year) will correlate to a correspondingly high income in the home market?

You’re correlating some of there’s flops as being a new sub or sustained sub…which is pretty silly. It doesn’t “generate income” in the home market otherwise.

You know what does?

Bluey

A good original series…if they can get one?

 

[celluloid]

For Disney…I disagree with this…sorta

Their primary easy profits centers are the legs and ability to sell other things that hit movies get them. The “machine”

Even in changing times…that’s how you get the easy money

What good box office does is be an indicator of that potential. Still by far the best indicator. It shows audience commitment. D+ does not.

I said it earlier: this is a huge week for them…the biggest of the year. The success of the “Disney machine” is gonna be showcased.

It better be

Without a doubt we can get into ancillary of merch and other synergy.

The reality is box office to box office, it is science or marketing and business that theater has greater impact.


Even marketing to theaters is often more beneficial than television. This is because it is proven that theatrical ads get more results than ads seen at home. In this distracted world it probably even has to ring true more than ever.


Business has so many risks, but they love mitigating the odds with what things show. And theaters still show success there is the primary driver for all other aspects.

That is why while Jaws has yet to stream a series or revival(thank goodness) and is often not streaming anywhere. It has an entire summer of festivities at Universal and it has remained in pop culture zeitgeist. The theater is the fastest and primary driver for that zeitgeist.

In terms of flops that eventually find an audience: they can't all be cult classics.


The majority of THE BEST for the machine have always been successful at box office first.

Disney re-releasing Star Wars films for easy profit is just one recent example of how they know this works and keeps the machine healthy.

 

[Disney Irish]

Even if the dynamics have changed…which they certainly have…ignoring how these flicks aren’t being well received/consumed is borderline clueless

I'm glad you acknowledge the market has changed, something you've been hard pressed to do even in recent conversations. Also no one is ignoring the fact that some of their movies haven't been well received at the box office.

 

[coffeefan]

Who said you can't have content streaming success? Not mutually exclusive and does not change the fact that the theatrical box office is still the best and fastest way to make your money.

You will notice that many things people want to watch on Netflix are also box office hits of recent are old. With just their own content, they would habe a rougher go. This was an odd comparison.

But nobody is saying the contrary. They're just saying that it's not black and white like it was before the steaming era.

 

[celluloid]

But nobody is saying the contrary. They're just saying that it's not black and white like it was before the steaming era.

It was never black and white. TV, HBO/Cable and Home Video all did this before.



Box office has always and still the primary correlator to success for most.

The reason you can share videos like that is...because it is surprising it happened. Meaning a luck and risky, can't count on it.

Not sure why it is so shocking to say that box office is primary driver of success for the major motion picture industry. It is not controversial.

If we want to talk cult classics and minor releases getting second life...we can do that as it is more common there.

But this is a box office thread.


There is still no evidence to the claim that the box office is not the primary driver. That was a black and white statement.

It is not the ONLY driver. But it is the primary one.

 

[celluloid]

Absolutely true. You don't think that the movie with the 2nd highest gross income at the BO so far this year (Cap 4, which would have been 14th overall last year) will correlate to a correspondingly high income in the home market?

So wait, is it the primary driver or not?

You guys took a long walk around the block to agree.

 

[coffeefan]

Not sure why it is so shocking to say that box office is primary driver of success for the major motion picture industry. It is not controversial.

Where did someone say that information was shocking? Let's include some quotes here.

It is not the ONLY driver. But it is the primary one.

Again, where did someone say otherwise? People are saying it's not the only factor, so it looks like you agree without realizing it.

 

[celluloid]

Where did someone say that information was shocking? Let's include some quotes here.


Again, where did someone say otherwise? People are saying it's not the only factor, so it looks like you agree without realizing it.

Because people are arguing like it is the norm for a movie to make more money at home than at box office.

It is the exception, not the norm.

This was all in repsonse to @Disney Irish saying that box office is NOT the primary driver.

Which everyone but Disney Irish seems to see that it is not true.

 

[brideck]

You’re correlating some of there’s flops as being a new sub or sustained sub…which is pretty silly. It doesn’t “generate income” in the home market otherwise.

I'm really not. I'm just reporting the numbers from a variety of studios that are attributed to non-Theatrical income. I'm making no assumptions as to what specific sources that income is coming from (like you are).

To use Cap 4 as an example, I am not saying that it's some dramatic moneymaker. But in Disney's ledger in the end, there's probably a "small" black number next to it, like $10m.

 

[brideck]

Because people are arguing like it is the norm for a movie to make more money at home than at box office.

It is the exception, not the norm.

Again, untrue. Only the top 4 or 5 movies last year clearly made more money at the box office than elsewhere. Source: Deadline