Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Just planning to ignore my request?

There was a request? I didn't catch it. I was probably skimming again.

The movies in question are The Marvels, Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion, and Wish. The numbers that you flog differ from reported reality by... well, by a lot. Which is the whole point in this most recent conversation around formulas.

Oh, that's the request? Suddenly it's 2023! I'm assuming you'll post figures from Deadline that show The Marvels and Haunted Mansion brought it untold Millions and wealth to Burbank's coffers from all that Disney+ profit? Okay, I'll bite...

Just to keep this fun, here's the exact numbers I posted here in this thread on the afternoon of January 1st, 2024 (only slightly hungover by that time) after I'd watched the Rose Parade and had my B Vitamin-dense recovery brunch.

Okay, gang, have we all recovered from last night? ....

The below was cut and pasted in 2025 from that New Year's 2024 post for brevity...

The Marvels: $220* Production/$100 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $46 Overseas = $223 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $158 Production/$75 Marketing, $41 Domestic, $19 Overseas = $173 Million Loss
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $37 Domestic, $47 Overseas = $216 Million Loss
Indiana Jones 5: $300 Production/$100 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $83 Overseas = $212 Million Loss

Shortly thereafter on January 1st, 2024 I posted all the 2023 movies number's compiled from The Numbers website, and in a spooky bit of prescience, the four movies you requested were lumped together in one of my screenshots....

View attachment 761222

Okay, now you go!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So marvel batting 0-2 this year

I mean…we knew this two weeks ago. But it didn’t top anyone from spinning themselves in circles to end up in the same place now…just a little dizzy

I’m going to stitch on Friday…doing my part

 

[TP2000]

So marvel batting 0-2 this year.

Apparently. Here's how that looks with Captain America 4 essentially done in theaters, and Thunderbolts fading quickly.

Captain America 4: $180 Production, $90 Marketing, $120 Domestic, $86 Overseas = $64 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: $180 Production, $90 Marketing, $93 Domestic, $68 Overseas = $109 Million Loss And Narrowing

Or, for our friends on the Metric system who like to use the blunter 2.5X formula...

Captain America 4 = $35 Million Loss
Thunderbolts = $125 Million Loss And Narrowing

.

 

[brideck]

I'm assuming you'll post figures from Deadline that show The Marvels and Haunted Mansion brought it untold Millions and wealth to Burbank's coffers from all that Disney+ profit?

Sadly, no. Deadline indicated that they lost a total of $628m on those four movies combined.

The Marvels: $220* Production/$100 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $46 Overseas = $223 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $158 Production/$75 Marketing, $41 Domestic, $19 Overseas = $173 Million Loss
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $37 Domestic, $47 Overseas = $216 Million Loss
Indiana Jones 5: $300 Production/$100 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $83 Overseas = $212 Million Loss

All right, so you're off by a total of $196m (~30%) on these four movies. The formula Brian Lo is urging you to use only missed by a total of $68m (~10%).

Okay, now you go!

I already went back in the post chain you're responding to, bro. And Brian went months before that.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sadly, no. Deadline indicated that they lost a total of $628m on those four movies combined.



All right, so you're off by a total of $196m (~30%) on these four movies. The formula Brian Lo is urging you to use only missed by a total of $68m (~10%).



I already went back in the post chain you're responding to, bro. And Brian went months before that.

Unfortunately for the 2 or 3 posters who constantly misrepresent the box office they'll never use a formula shown to be more accurate because they have a narrative to continue, for reasons. And they've pretty much already admitted to that. And that the only way there is nothing to "talk" about for them is for Disney movies to "over perform" in theaters so they have nothing to cling onto, because it'll be a clear "success" in their mind. Its clear they only value the box office, because anything else doesn't make sense to them, a very "old school" thought process, even though we've all discussed the paradigm shift that is currently happening.

 

[Chi84]

Unfortunately for the 2 or 3 posters who constantly misrepresent the box office they'll never use a formula shown to be more accurate because they have a narrative to continue, for reasons. And they've pretty much already admitted to that. And that the only way there is nothing to "talk" about for them is for Disney movies to "over perform" in theaters so they have nothing to cling onto, because it'll be a clear "success" in their mind. Its clear they only value the box office, because anything else doesn't make sense to them, a very "old school" thought process, even though we've all discussed the paradigm shift that is currently happening.

So nothing new then.

 

[DKampy]

Even if the bulk of promotion is prior it’s theater debut…it still creates awareness for the afterlife at the cinemas…..how many times have we seen people on this very site… I will wait to stream it…. In fact most studios would probably rather have people stream it at the $20.00 price point… they will get a bigger cut

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

I thought for sure Thunderbolts would pass CA4 box office. It still might, but will still end up being less of a hit than I thought. Oh well

 

[brideck]

I thought for sure Thunderbolts would pass CA4 box office. It still might, but will still end up being less of a hit than I thought. Oh well

It'll probably end up virtually identical to Cap 4, which puts both firmly in the wash category -- making nothing at the box office, which will likely be converted into slim profits once PVOD and streaming gains are added into the bottom line.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I thought for sure Thunderbolts would pass CA4 box office. It still might, but will still end up being less of a hit than I thought. Oh well

Why?

I thought it probably would…but with zero confidence…

The people love stars…not side characters and leftovers

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It'll probably end up virtually identical to Cap 4, which puts both firmly in the wash category -- making nothing at the box office, which will likely be converted into slim profits once PVOD and streaming gains are added into the bottom line.

The goal of MCU is to make money, set up sequels and crossovers and sell branded product and tie ins.

Not eek out a break even

I see it’s a Monday again

 

[brideck]

The goal of MCU is to make money, set up sequels and crossovers and sell branded product and tie ins.

Not eek out a break even

I see it’s a Monday again

So the problem here is that you're reading my calm statement of fact as an endorsement of the result.

It's not. I just don't feel the need to take a crap all over the thread because of it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So the problem here is that you're reading my calm statement of fact as an endorsement of the result.

It's not. I just don't feel the need to take a crap all over the thread because of it.

It’s more of a reminder to others not to move the wheels on the goalposts to make nice for daddy Bob

…and it will likely happen anyway

(If anyone is tired of hearing this…there’s an easy way to fix it)

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Why?

I thought it probably would…but with zero confidence…

The people love stars…not side characters and leftovers

Because it's good. Not much negative about the film either critically or with audiences, which is somewhat rare these days with Disney films. That usually translates to a pretty big box office.
I didn't expect it to do Avenger types numbers but I thought at least $250 domestic was in reach

 

[LittleBuford]

It’s more of a reminder to others not to move the wheels on the goalposts to make nice for daddy Bob

…and it will likely happen anyway

(If anyone is tired of hearing this…there’s an easy way to fix it)

No-one here cares about "daddy Bob". You're pretty much the only person who keeps bringing him up.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No-one here cares about "daddy Bob". You're pretty much the only person who keeps bringing him up.

Making excuses for bad Disney product is the same thing

This thread is A minefield with those buried everywhere

And the day is young

 

[Agent H]

Making excuses for bad Disney product is the same thing

This thread is A minefield with those buried everywhere

And the day is young

With All due respect the thing you don’t seem to understand is that the product is not 100 percent bad in the eyes of everyone. And I know you’re going to respond to this with some (probably flimsy) metric that tries to prove that the majority of people aren’t happy. But that’s not what we’re talking about. We’re talking about people who you constantly say are “making excuses” we are not. We defend the product we like and criticize the product we don’t.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

With All due respect the thing you don’t seem to understand is that the product is not 100 percent bad in the eyes of everyone. And I know you’re going to respond to this with some (probably flimsy) metric that tries to prove that the majority of people aren’t happy. But that’s not what we’re talking about. We’re talking about people who you constantly say are “making excuses” we are not. We defend the product we like and criticize the product we don’t.

Disney is a mass market product

Everything is designed to cast a wide net.

Doesn’t matter if “some” people like it. It never did. That’s their lot.

They didn’t make 30 mcu movies for “some people”

 

[Disstevefan1]

Disney is a mass market product

Everything is designed to cast a wide net.

Doesn’t matter if “some” people like it. It never did. That’s their lot.

They didn’t make 30 mcu movies for “some people”

I think Disney makes movies they want to make and hope for the best.

Sometimes they make money, sometimes they lose money.

No worries, they have the theme park revenue to pay for it

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think Disney makes movies they want to make and hope for the best.

Sometimes they make money, sometimes they lose money.

No worries, they have the theme park revenue to pay for it

Woah…

You couldn’t be further off…it’s modern Hollywood. Only sure things are wanted by the studios. They’ll dabble in small stuff…but it ain’t MCU