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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I don’t know, the trailers being more well-received than Brave New World, each trailer at or above 95%, makes me believe people care and are willing to see it if reviews are strong and in its favor.
We we shall see

Brave new world is also unofficial a flop at this point…a loser…

So because some e-clicks on trailers is received “better”…doesn’t make the next one a smash. I think break even is a safe prediction right now…if it’s good it would probably exceed that.

Comic book fans don’t carry the MCU…it’s the buzz and word of mouth amongst normal people
 

Agent H

Well-Known Member
But that’s the approach with Deadpool…

Winter soldier was the best, most “grounded” MCU movie…

If what Buf says is correct…this won’t line up with that.

It’s basically also a writedown at this point based on the box office…so the people are speaking
1. Got it thanks 2.what does that have to do with the monkey movie? 3. I don’t really care about that if I see the movie it will be at home after my brothers go to sleep.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I would agree…but…


This right here. You’re speaking another language the public does not understand

And the public is DUMB…

Why does that matter? Because Disney is a conglomerate and just wants the easy money. That is why it matters.

It’s not an arthouse…we can act like it’s “cinema” and that it “isn’t going anywhere”…but then the reality comes in.

The same debates we always have in parks:
Results based business.

They don’t care about thematic cohesion…
Money

and they don’t care about “projects D+ wealth…maybe…eventually”
Money only…now

NYSE: DIS

They’re not nearly as stable as you think. It’s all about the now.

Which is how they bombed out Star Wars to a crater the size of Nagasaki…

And how they can do it with marvel too.
Maybe, but it’s not ALL about the money, and to think otherwise doesn’t understand the cinematic side of the industry. It’s a balance, and yeah sometimes the pendulum swings to one side over the other, but both sides are there.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
But that’s the approach with Deadpool…

Winter soldier was the best, most “grounded” MCU movie…

If what Buf says is correct…this won’t line up with that.

It’s basically also a writedown at this point based on the box office…so the people are speaking
Which movie are you talking about? As I believe they were talking about Monkey which opened this weekend.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
That’s not what I meant. I think many of the effects are practical; they just look (intentionally) silly and farfetched.
…I’m not sure there’s a difference? Because “silly” was a takeaway

Even if you’re talking about the ridiculousness or super heroes

The ones that seem less absurd are the ones that last.

What do my personal favorites have in common?

X2
The Nolans
Superman
Winter soldier

…I’d say you can “suspend disbelief” because it’s the least absurd takes?

Just me
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Maybe, but it’s not ALL about the money, and to think otherwise doesn’t understand the cinematic side of the industry. It’s a balance, and yeah sometimes the pendulum swings to one side over the other, but both sides are there.
The current state and stewardship leaves little doubt it’s all about the money

ALL

it’s not that I’m supporting that…it’s just the only logical takeaway.

Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
The current state and stewardship leaves little doubt it’s all about the money

ALL

it’s not that I’m supporting that…it’s just the only logical takeaway.

Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?
Disagree, if it was ALL about the money they would have done different things to try to maximize earnings. So while there is a monetary motive behind some decisions, it’s not at the core of every decision.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
…I’m not sure there’s a difference? Because “silly” was a takeaway

Even if you’re talking about the ridiculousness or super heroes

The ones that seem less absurd are the ones that last.

What do my personal favorites have in common?

X2
The Nolans
Superman
Winter soldier

…I’d say you can “suspend disbelief” because it’s the least absurd takes?

Just me
I don’t think you’ve understood what film I’m talking about. I’m discussing The Monkey.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
It’s basically also a writedown at this point based on the box office…so the people are speaking
Brave new world is also unofficial a flop at this point…a loser…

Not to be annoying, but you are not using the right vernacular. Disney hasn’t written off a film since their great D+ purge in Spring 2023. They’ve never really written off a theatrical production, it financially doesn’t make sense. Writing off also involves writing off the revenue, for tax purposes. The film also needs to be essentially scrubbed and pulled to do this.

I think what you want to say is “the film is basically a loss at this point”.

Secondarily, Disney really hasn’t had a tentpole flop since The Marvels. There were quite a few in 2023. Quantumania wasn’t one. This would also not qualify. It’s just another in a series of big disappointments, along with Quantumania.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Wow I did not know that.

Me either! I'm tempted, because Theme Park 2000 seems kind of Late Clinton Era.

I was thinking of changing it to TP3000, to stay hip.

Are you assuming low marketing costs (0-25% of production) for Snow White?
I have it as 140 million

Really? Disney themselves bragged pre-opening that they were spending $140 Million on marketing for The Little Mermaid last year. Are they really already announcing their marketing spend for Snow White, or is that number coming from non-Disney sources?

I will say, this past weekend my YouTube channels exploded with Snow White commercials that were often 90 seconds long. I clicked off as soon as it let me, but I chuckled at how they tried to frame it as being a sacred Walt Disney treasure from 1937. Don't tell Miss Zegler that, she'll be mad! :mad:

EDIT: Okay, before I hit reply I went to the Google myself, which is a bad source of AI generated misinformation and I should have done at least 10 minutes of my own research at the library in the morning and then presented a bibliography and my findings. But anyway....

Variety is saying Snow White had a production budget of $240 Million! Sadly, that's not shocking given recent Disney bloat and the panicky rewrites and rework they had to give this film after the Seven Portland Hipsters fiasco, and whatever damage Miss Zegler did to the movie with her own charming commentary.

So a $140 Million marketing budget suddenly seems believable. The standard 50% of production for marketing would be $120 Million, so $140 Million isn't a stretch. Hopefully it's because they really salvaged this movie from its first incarnation circa late 2023, and the know they'll have a Billion dollar hit on their hands.

At 2.5x of production, it's going to need $600 Million at the box office to break even. At a 60/40 domestic/foreign box office split which may be favorable to it if it's big domestically, it's going to need at least $720 Million to break even.

Hi Ho, kids! And good luck!
 

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