WSJ: Even Disney Is Worried About The High Cost Of A Disney Vacation (gift link)

[Laketravis]

With the value provided today, they could increase the prices 10-15% and I’d still consider it a good value. Anything significantly beyond that I would view alternatives as a better value.

Thanks for an honest answer. Beyond 15% could mean your trip next month might be your last? I certainly expect WDW to exceed that over the next couple of years given their public statements about predicted revenue increases.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

WDW, for our family, has consistently been a very positive experience. The same cannot be said for any other vacation in the past 10 years.

With the value provided today, they could increase the prices 10-15% and I’d still consider it a good value. Anything significantly beyond that I would view alternatives as a better value.

We’re arriving on March 30th, by the way.

Wdw’s value has dropped in the range of 25% over those last 10 years - just my estimate

A combination of stagnation, price increases and lack of benefits or reductions for lodging and ticket costs

So you’re willing to go to the 40%+ range?

That’s bold…I’ll give you that

What are some of those other vacations? I’m interested in how the comparisons are made…as we all make them a little bit differently…

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

WDW, for our family, has consistently been a very positive experience. The same cannot be said for any other vacation in the past 10 years.

Disney World, Disneyland, and Disneyland Paris do provide a very good experience. While some things used to be better - it’s still much better than the real world that’s for sure!

Have you done any cruises? They rank up there for me as well.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’re going to need to explain this one a lil more.

I can…

Traditionally arrogant pins that obsess over money and look down on anyone not obsessed with wealth?

 

[BrianLo]

Wait a minute…are you putting Disneyland and the universal in California on equal footing?

I assume you’ve been to them?

I have and they are not, obviously. But it’s a pretty quick receding coming off Nintendo. Which is disappointing for them.

I think it’s more to do with Universal 2022/23 attendance being falsely elevated because of rebound demand and softer restrictions. We’re back to the real demand.

Uh, yeah. Right. I'm fully aware they've stated such several times and I'm not a member of the denial crowd. Take my comment in the proper context - both WDW and USO are potentially in trouble but that I've seen what I believe to be a recent increase in crowds at USO as opposed to the not-up-for-dispute decline across town.

We have forward guidance, not anecdotes. Comcast is expecting declines until May… Disney is expecting things to be flat.

 

[Laketravis]

Disney World, Disneyland, and Disneyland Paris do provide a very good experience. While some things used to be better - it’s still much better than the real world that’s for sure!

Have you don’t any cruises? They rank up there for me as well.

I used to really enjoy cruises but over the past couple of years feel like they (Carnival, Norwegian, RC) have reduced offerings even more than WDW has. Haven't seen a lobster at dinner in a long time LOL

The Norwegian Prima really put the nail in the coffin for me last year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That's why *now* that DTC is profitable, they're committing to $60B investment over 10 years and $17B to WDW.

Always putting all your weight right on the banana peel

 

[Laketravis]

I have and they are not, obviously. But it’s a pretty quick receding coming off Nintendo. Which is disappointing for them.

I think it’s more to do with 2022 attendance being falsely elevated because of rebound demand and softer restrictions. We’re back to the real demand.



We have forward guidance, not anecdotes. Comcast is not expecting declines until May… Disney is expecting things to be flat.

Then my observations have been correct. I also believe USO pushed very large and financially attractive vacation offers to specific non-US countries lately as many (and I mean many) of the people I've seen in the parks were not from the US.

 

[Stripes]

Thanks for an honest answer. Beyond 15% could mean your trip next month might be your last? I certainly expect WDW to exceed that over the next couple of years given their public statements about predicted revenue increases.

I expect that if a 15% price increase is breached, it will be accompanied by an increase in the quality of the resort’s offerings, such as new, higher quality attractions. I, for one, am excited for every new attraction that was announced last year.

I think that the company expects some H2 operating income growth to come from increased attendance.

But, we’ll see. Certainly if there’s a 15% price increase over the next two years I will not be going then.

 

[Laketravis]

I expect that if a 15% price increase is breached, it will be accompanied by an increase in the quality of the resort’s offerings, such as new, higher quality attractions. I, for one, am excited for every new attraction that was announced last year.

Unfortunately that hasn't been the trend but I hope you're right.

 

[BrianLo]

Then my observations have been correct. I also believe USO pushed very large and financially attractive vacation offers to specific non-US countries lately as many (and I mean many) of the people I've seen in the parks were not from the US.

Sorry I edited out a double negative as you responded. Comcast is expecting further declines through May.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have and they are not, obviously. But it’s a pretty quick receding coming off Nintendo. Which is disappointing for them.

I think it’s more to do with Universal 2022/23 attendance being falsely elevated because of rebound demand and softer restrictions. We’re back to the real demand.



We have forward guidance, not anecdotes. Comcast is expecting declines until May… Disney is expecting things to be flat.

Want me to show you the elephant?

2019 attendance:
Wdw (four parks) - 58 million
Universal Orlando- 21 million

2023 attendance:
Wdw (four parks) 49-50 million
Universal Orlando - 20.5 million

So the question is: what is “flat”?
Other than the earth and my head?

 

[Jrb1979]

Sorry I edited out a double negative as you responded. Comcast is expecting further declines through May.

That makes sense as that when Epic opens. Both companies have major issues with their parks in the swamp.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I expect that if a 15% price increase is breached, it will be accompanied by an increase in the quality of the resort’s offerings, such as new, higher quality attractions. I, for one, am excited for every new attraction that was announced last year.

I think that the company expects some H2 operating income growth to come from increased attendance.

But, we’ll see. Certainly if there’s a 15% price increase over the next two years I will not be going then.

There is a zero percent chance. I’m serious. You will see more reductions, additional fees and block ticket schemes

Unfortunately that hasn't been the trend but I hope you're right.

If wishes and buts where candy and nuts…

 

[Laketravis]

If wishes and buts where candy and nuts…

Hey I was being nice - didn't want to be the one to disappoint

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hey I was being nice - didn't want to be the one to disappoint

and I appreciate you handling one of the more ridiculous statements we’ve seen in a while that way…

There is zero evidence to be made that any emphasis on value will return under the current structure. Ever

 

[BrianLo]

Want me to show you the elephant?

2019 attendance:
Wdw (four parks) - 58 million
Universal Orlando- 21 million

2023 attendance:
Wdw (four parks) 49-50 million
Universal Orlando - 20.5 million

So the question is: what is “flat”?
Other than the earth and my head?

Why are you presenting me 2019-2023 data when you know I’m clearly making commentary on 2023->2024->2025

I’m not in denial for either circumstance. WDW had a big drop and has stayed depressed and flat ever since. Comcast has a big decline in 2024 in the data you are not currently presenting.

The downward spiral has also just hit Universal.

 

[Laketravis]

Sorry I edited out a double negative as you responded. Comcast is expecting further declines through May.

Gotchya.

I think targeting Brazil, Argentina, England and Scotland (among others) may have paid off for a bit in pumping gate clicks but maybe not revenue if the discounts were very steep. We'll see.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Why are you presenting me 2019-2023 data when you know I’m clearly making commentary on 2023->2024

I’m not in denial for either circumstance. WDW had a big drop and has stayed depressed and flat ever since. Comcast has a big decline in 2024 in the data you are not currently presenting.

The downward spiral has also just hit Universal.

Because there is a gigantic whole in the wdw attendance that can’t seem to be acknowledged. They aren’t close to “flat”…they’re in huge makeup mode and not gaining ground on that.

Yes…that matters…it’s a huge cause of the tactics which 99.9% of us agree aren’t working

I know you know better…there are a dozen or so frequent posters here who want to cherry pick part of the situation to cover the details of the whole

The types that bought the $160 stock and are trapped

 

[Jrb1979]

Why are you presenting me 2019-2023 data when you know I’m clearly making commentary on 2023->2024->2025

I’m not in denial for either circumstance. WDW had a big drop and has stayed depressed and flat ever since. Comcast has a big decline in 2024 in the data you are not currently presenting.

The downward spiral has also just hit Universal.

In all honesty they are both in trouble if they don't change things. It says a lot that the swamp parks are either flat or down while every where else they are up.

The Universal Disney comparison has to stop. They aren't only competing with each other but every other vacation place out there. This posted should send shockwaves into Disney and Universal. Instead many want to dismiss it like they do with every negative article on pricing