WSJ: Even Disney Is Worried About The High Cost Of A Disney Vacation (gift link)

[britain]

I’d say the only way the executives fix this problem while still embracing the decisions that led to have pricing out middle class families at WDW and DL is to build a few small regional parks themselves.

Re-establish with the middle class that Disney means cleaner, safer, and more beautiful than typical regional parks. But leave “over-the-top budget busting spectaculars” for DL and WDW. Imagine a park as appealing but as modest as 3/4 of original Hong Kong DL was when it opened. Maybe lean on two popular IP offerings, but not much more than that because you don’t want to undermine the appeal of the “premium offerings” at CA and FL.

There are those of us who go to DL or WDW, but we have Tokyo or Paris on our bucket list. There should be a similar set of offerings for families to regularly attend and they put DL or WDW on their bucket list.

You want EVERY family to think of themselves as a Disney-attending family.

 

[lentesta]

The whales of the world will show…but they go everywhere else as well

The Disney repeating customer - which can best be summarized by the first 20 years of dvc - were the “sandwich” class between upper middle and lower upper that became content to make Disney parks their “home base” and travel to frequently

Those were the ones content to fill the restaurants and buy the stuff at huge returns…and they’re shedding that type now.

I wonder what @lentesta thinks about this?

It wasn't said explicitly in the article, but there have been multiple high-level meetings where Disney exec asked for ideas on how to attract the "young families" demographic, who are not visiting the parks like their parents did.

The concern there, besides the short-term revenue, is that the parks operate a lot on nostalgia: your parents took you, you take your kids, and so on. Like DVC, that's something that guarantees a certain level of base business every single year.

For decades after World War II, each generation of American kids could look forward to being slightly better off, economically, than their parents. And that meant more visits to Disney World, because they had more money.

That's not true for Millennials - those born between 1981 and 1996 - ages 29 to 44, smack-dab in the middle of the largest demographic of Disney World visitors. They're worse off, financially, than their parents.

It's more bad news for Gen Z - those between the ages of 18 and 34. This CNBC article says that 45% of them still rely on their parents for financial support.

Back to the Disney meetings about "young families" (YFs).

The execs asked a wide range of groups for ideas on how to get more YFs into the parks.

I won't name the person or the group, but one of them had a presentation with data similar to the WSJ article, and said "Lower prices. They can't afford it otherwise."

That message was not well-received. As I said earlier, the outcome of the meeting was to task Marketing with coming up with better ad campaigns.

This same meeting happened regularly for a couple of years. The "lower prices" person eventually got tired of it and quit.

So this generation of young families can't afford the parks. The next generation? No way.

Eventually, through inheritance, those kids will be part of the largest wealth transfer in history. But that's decades from now, and they won't have fond memories of the parks because they didn't go.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’d say the only way the executives fix this problem while still embracing the decisions that led to have pricing out middle class families at WDW and DL is to build a few small regional parks themselves.

Re-establish with the middle class that Disney means cleaner, safer, and more beautiful than typical regional parks. But leave “over-the-top budget busting spectaculars” for DL and WDW. Imagine a park as appealing but as modest as 3/4 of original Hong Kong DL was when it opened. Maybe lean on two popular IP offerings, but not much more than that because you don’t want to undermine the appeal of the “premium offerings” at CA and FL.

You may have a point…

But there is no chance…zero…they build any new park facilities. There’s no reason to do it in Orlando…there is less reason to somewhere else where the ROI isn’t there

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I think his point got a bit muddled. Cruise ships aren’t a better deal in 2025 than they were in 2019. In fact I think they’ve largely declined even faster than Orlando parks.

But they were an exceptional deal in 2019 versus land vacations are now are a reasonable deal today.

I’m actually not a DCL champion, the product has always been overpriced. But it’s actually been a lot less impacted by cuts than the broader industry. If you think OG WDW fans are a disgruntled lot you should see the seasoned cruisers thoughts on their prior preferred brands decline. Royal, NCL, Princess and Carnival particularly. They are all playing musical chairs as people swear off line x to defect to y, even though the problems are largely the same.

Celebrity, DCL and Virgin appear to have kept most of the quality afloat, but they are all a little upmarket. Even within each brand there’s a ton of ship class to ship class variability. Icon has way higher quality food than the average of the brand.

I am on an RCL message forum and it is interesting to see a lot of similar complaints from people there that are long time cruisers vs people here - lots of similarities (increased pricing, reductions in what is included, reduced quality, more nickel and dining, etc).

And similarly they (RCL) seem to focus on the big new shiney stuff (guess the equivalent of E tickets) which are pretty great but some of what made long time cruisers live cruising is being sacrificed for it

 

[BrianLo]

I’d say the only way the executives fix this problem while still embracing the decisions that led to have pricing out middle class families at WDW and DL is to build a few small regional parks themselves.

I vehemently disagree. Going regional is a fools game and something imagineering is incapable of designing around.

Imagine a park as appealing but as modest as 3/4 of original Hong Kong DL was when it opened.

Maybe I’m missing something… but 25% less than HKDL’s opening is bordering on nothing. That park has spent 20 years trying to dig itself out fiscally from being under-built.

You can’t have “Disney quality” and volume if you are trying to run a lean regional operation. You aren’t going to achieve fiscal success with low volume, so going regional is just a quality cut.

I’ll say it again, I think there’s wildly inappropriate optimism about Universal Kids and how unappealing the majority of this forum will find the finished product.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think his point got a bit muddled. Cruise ships aren’t a better deal in 2025 than they were in 2019. In fact I think they’ve largely declined even faster than Orlando parks.

But they were an exceptional deal in 2019 versus land vacations are now are a reasonable deal today.

I’m actually not a DCL champion, the product has always been overpriced. But it’s actually been a lot less impacted by cuts than the broader industry. If you think OG WDW fans are a disgruntled lot you should see the seasoned cruisers thoughts on their prior preferred brands decline. Royal, NCL, Princess and Carnival particularly. They are all playing musical chairs as people swear off line x to defect to y, even though the problems are largely the same.

Celebrity, DCL and Virgin appear to have kept most of the quality afloat, but they are all a little upmarket. Even within each brand there’s a ton of ship class to ship class variability. Icon has way higher quality food than the average of the brand.

The price of Cruise ships has risen…

But what hasn’t happened is a loss in what you’re paying for.

“Value” by most people’s judgement


What do I mean?

In a nutshell…charging for fastpass and/or essentially eliminating the EMH benefit leaves a taste in people’s mouths that’s easy to identify

And it tastes like


On cruise ships…you pay more for your fare and you pay for upsells

But you don’t pay for things that previously were included.

Disney made a couple of catastrophic mistakes that are directly bringing down the returns

Should have just raised the ticket prices by $50…instead of “optional” line management that everyone remembers used to be included. Weed people out that way

Now you have two bad looks instead of just one

 

[lentesta]

Wdw’s value has dropped in the range of 25% over those last 10 years - just my estimate

$104.17 <- Disney's stock price 10 years ago, in February 2015
$110.86 <- Disney's stock price this morning

I'm sure dividends were solid. So're utilities.

Looking at the long-term history, one of two things seems like it has to be true:

- Disney's growth from 2010 - 2020 was largely due to 0% interest rates
- Growing attendance to 21MM in 2019 by attracting a broader audience was the right move

I could be wrong. I don't know anything about finance.

 

[britain]

I vehemently disagree. Going regional is a fools game and something imagineering is incapable of designing around.



Maybe I’m missing something… but 25% less than HKDL’s opening is bordering on nothing. That park has spent 20 years trying to dig itself out fiscally from being under-built.

You can’t have “Disney quality” and volume if you are trying to run a lean regional operation. You aren’t going to achieve fiscal success with low volume, so going regional is just a quality cut.

I’ll say it again, I think there’s wildly inappropriate optimism about Universal Kids and how unappealing the majority of this forum will find the finished product.

I think there’s money to be made in simpler parks built on the promise of “clean, safe, beautiful.”

I think Uni’s new small park might fail on beautiful. (Or on not clearly communicating the expectations.) But that doesn’t invalidate my proposition.

You know, what Walt offered in 1955.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It wasn't said explicitly in the article, but there have been multiple high-level meetings where Disney exec asked for ideas on how to attract the "young families" demographic, who are not visiting the parks like their parents did.

The concern there, besides the short-term revenue, is that the parks operate a lot on nostalgia: your parents took you, you take your kids, and so on. Like DVC, that's something that guarantees a certain level of base business every single year.

For decades after World War II, each generation of American kids could look forward to being slightly better off, economically, than their parents. And that meant more visits to Disney World, because they had more money.

That's not true for Millennials - those born between 1981 and 1996 - ages 29 to 44, smack-dab in the middle of the largest demographic of Disney World visitors. They're worse off, financially, than their parents.

It's more bad news for Gen Z - those between the ages of 18 and 34. This CNBC article says that 45% of them still rely on their parents for financial support.

Back to the Disney meetings about "young families" (YFs).

The execs asked a wide range of groups for ideas on how to get more YFs into the parks.

I won't name the person or the group, but one of them had a presentation with data similar to the WSJ article, and said "Lower prices. They can't afford it otherwise."

That message was not well-received. As I said earlier, the outcome of the meeting was to task Marketing with coming up with better ad campaigns.

This same meeting happened regularly for a couple of years. The "lower prices" person eventually got tired of it and quit.

So this generation of young families can't afford the parks. The next generation? No way.

Eventually, through inheritance, those kids will be part of the largest wealth transfer in history. But that's decades from now, and they won't have fond memories of the parks because they didn't go.

I’m not surprised

The problem is they can claim they’re having “meetings” and “concerns” all they want…

They’re chasing quarterlies with not much else to rely on…they will continue to bleed parks

There aren’t other feasible options as it stands.

Wait until they realize that more cruise ships = less demand = lower prices

They think they’ll charge more


There only one way to “attract young families”…and it’s thread the needle between “class” and “affordable” that Disney parks carried the dual stigma of in the 80’s and 90’s

The Eisner juju…

And remember when forums such as this had all the townspeople singing “ding dong…the witch is dead” when roy engineered his vendetta?

Not all of us thought that…because having met them both (Mike and Bob)…one Carried an understanding behind the gaze…one never did.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

$104.17 <- Disney's stock price 10 years ago, in February 2015
$110.86 <- Disney's stock price this morning

I'm sure dividends were solid. So're utilities.

View attachment 843569

Looking at the long-term history, one of two things seems like it has to be true:

- Disney's growth from 2010 - 2020 was largely due to 0% interest rates
- Growing attendance to 21MM in 2019 by attracting a broader audience was the right move

I could be wrong. I don't know anything about finance.

I was talking about “perceived value” by a parks customer on the ground.

There’s no way to pinpoint that…but adults should be able to think on it and come to a reasonable consensus. Which is why we always fail here

As far as stock value…it’s been a disaster when you look at markets

Being flat over a 10 year period is akin to failure from an analysts standpoint.

Dividends (which again should be illegal) haven’t been impressive either. When they stopped theirs it was viewed as appalling.

 

[BrianLo]

I think there’s money to be made in simpler parks built on the promise of “clean, safe, beautiful.”

I think Uni’s new small park might fail on beautiful. (Or on not clearly communicating the expectations.) But that doesn’t invalidate my proposition.

You know, what Walt offered in 1955.

Yes, that’s the way to do it. You picked the wrong Disneyland starter as your comp.

But imagineering is not capable of that anymore. No E tickets, no D tickets. Executives also couldn’t make heads or tails of that in an attraction monetization environment.

They’ve cracked the compromise to the regional parks and that’s their cruise ship business. But people would hate what the company would fart out otherwise on a 1 Billion budget and it would be quite brand damaging.

 

[BrianLo]

$104.17 <- Disney's stock price 10 years ago, in February 2015
$110.86 <- Disney's stock price this morning

I'm sure dividends were solid. So're utilities.

View attachment 843569

Looking at the long-term history, one of two things seems like it has to be true:

- Disney's growth from 2010 - 2020 was largely due to 0% interest rates
- Growing attendance to 21MM in 2019 by attracting a broader audience was the right move

I could be wrong. I don't know anything about finance.

The stock price is very, very complicated and detached from the parks buisness. Disney is still a media company foremost.

Particularly since their stock peaked when WDW was closed.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

The price actually depends on WHERE YOU ARE IN THE PARK!

That is an elite RollerCoaster Tycoon strategy. D’Amaro must be a player.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The stock price is very, very complicated and detached from the parks buisness. Disney is still a media company foremost.

Particularly since their stock peaked when WDW was closed.

The United States government and imf authorized corporate price gouging to buy their way out of the health crisis…

That’s really it. It wasn’t “inflation”…it was “everybody gets some”

That was the stock market”value” increase. Plain and simple


TWDC (NYSE: DIS) is getting over 50% of its income from “parks and experiences” now…and the gap is growing

…you might want to let them know they’re a media company foremost

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That is an elite RollerCoaster Tycoon strategy. D’Amaro must be a player.

…greatest game ever

Life altering

 

[monothingie]

Just remember, you are only a money dispensing meat sack to the Disney.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Disney loves to gaslight and obviously doesn’t get it

I have always said if those making the decisions had to experience the parks how most of us and our families and friends do, they might understand it more

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just remember, you are only a money dispensing meat sack to the Disney.

…I laugh…so I don’t cry

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney loves to gaslight and obviously doesn’t get it

I have always said if those making the decisions had to experience the parks how most of us and our families and friends do, they might understand it more

You mean with the unwashed?

Who don’t have a lifesized poster of Tim Cook on the ceiling of their bedroom…

 

[BrianLo]

TWDC (NYSE: DIS) is getting over 50% of its income from “parks and experiences” now…and the gap is growing

…you might want to let them know they’re a media company foremost

And that’s the crux of it, well over 50% of its income… but only a third of the revenue. The stock price is floundering because of all the other segments.

I know this board thinks otherwise, but it’s not the Walt Disney World company. WDW makes up like 15% of the companies revenue. It’s important… but it’s not the company and it’s most certainly not the sole stock price determinant.